Math for Pick #13

[crazycolt1]

21 hours ago, stitches said:

People throw out 'blue chip' way too loosely. There are all pros everywhere in the draft, but the frequency with which you can find them drops significantly the lower you go. And the fact that some turn into great players doesn't mean those players were blue chip prospects when they entered the league. Darius Leonard was NOT a blue chip prospect(and I'm saying this as the person on this forum who had him probably higher than anyone else). You CANNOT expect to get a Darius Leonard in every draft with your 2nd round pick.  Ballard might draft for 10 more years and not get anyone close to Darius Leonard in the second round. 

 

In the long term, about half of your second rounders will bust, about half of them will be various levels of successful - from good rotational players to... solid starters to ...Darius Leonard levels all pro. It's not wise to expect to consistently draft all pros in the second round. It's just NOT going to happen. And Ballard knows that and he knows his own limitations and that's why he's accumulating more picks in that second-third round range. More shots, more chances to get good players. 

The whole NFL history is full of so called no name players who have made plays that won games. It makes no difference on what round a player is taken if he can contribute to a team winning. 

Those 'blue chip' players cant and never will win games by themselves. 

There have been way too many fans right here in this forum who really don't know to judge a player. They look at stats or what some media darling said and follow suit. 

Take Castonzo for instance. He has played at a very high level pretty much his whole career but yet he got ragged on big time in this forum. We have a few of those types of players on this team right now. 

IMO this team is not near as bad as some think. 

[aaron11]

On 2/15/2020 at 10:54 AM, FalseStart said:

Earliest I see Ballard grabbing a QB is in the third round...There are too many good/great Starters/prospects at positions of need at 13, 34, 44... to grab a project QB. 

if we do that and it works then will only be moving further down the draft in the future.

 

 whatever QBs we are looking at in future drafts will also be projects

 

we cant be scared of project qbs now, they might be the only options to find an upgrade besides 40 year old stop gaps 

 

 

 

 

[RollerColt]

6 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

if we do that and it works then will only be moving further down the draft in the future.

 

 whatever QBs we are looking at in future drafts will also be projects

 

we cant be scared of project qbs now, they might be the only options to find an upgrade besides 40 year old stop gaps 

 

 

 

 

There are no promises in the NFL. Even Burrow could end up flaming out, but you’re right. Sitting on our hands isn’t the option. 

[ty4atd]

On 2/15/2020 at 12:37 AM, stitches said:

No, I'm not talking about now or you are gone. I'm talking whenever he decides to address it... How many GMs survive drafting a bust at QB? If the QB he drafts busts, I doubt he will get a second chance to draft another one... So he must be pretty sold on whoever he drafts.

Depends on where he draft the next QB, if it's in the 1st round or he trades up for someone maybe but if he takes say Gordon or another mid/late or round QB I doubt that gets him fired. If he takes Love or trades up for Tua or Herbert and they bust or whomever next year then he'll be in trouble. 

On 2/15/2020 at 12:37 AM, stitches said:

No, I'm not talking about now or you are gone. I'm talking whenever he decides to address it... How many GMs survive drafting a bust at QB? If the QB he drafts busts, I doubt he will get a second chance to draft another one... So he must be pretty sold on whoever he drafts.

Depends on where he draft the next QB, if it's in the 1st round or he trades up for someone maybe but if he takes say Gordon or another mid/late or round QB I doubt that gets him fired. If he takes Love or trades up for Tua or Herbert and they bust or whomever next year then he'll be in trouble. 

On 2/15/2020 at 12:37 AM, stitches said:

No, I'm not talking about now or you are gone. I'm talking whenever he decides to address it... How many GMs survive drafting a bust at QB? If the QB he drafts busts, I doubt he will get a second chance to draft another one... So he must be pretty sold on whoever he drafts.

Depends on where he draft the next QB, if it's in the 1st round or he trades up for someone maybe but if he takes say Gordon or another mid/late or round QB I doubt that gets him fired. If he takes Love or trades up for Tua or Herbert and they bust or whomever next year then he'll be in trouble. 

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, ty4atd said:

Depends on where he draft the next QB, if it's in the 1st round or he trades up for someone maybe but if he takes say Gordon or another mid/late or round QB I doubt that gets him fired. If he takes Love or trades up for Tua or Herbert and they bust or whomever next year then he'll be in trouble. 

That's true, but I don't really consider mid-late round QBs as a drafting of franchise QB. I consider it a wild shot and have very little hopes for such QBs. I meant if he drafts a QB high(1st-2nd round)...

[Stephen]

On 2/14/2020 at 11:30 AM, Archer said:

This is how I feel.  From everything I’ve seen, I don’t think I’d take Love with our #34 pick, but it CB pulls the trigger at #13, I’ll be thinking, “I guess I was wrong!”

Love probably  won't  be there at 34. I'M hoping  constanzo comes back so we can focus on dl, we, and qb if we decide  to go that direction 

[Stephen]

On 2/14/2020 at 8:28 PM, WifiGuy said:

That's why he should not take one this yr.   None of them are worth the risk.   FA  for a few yrs until he build up draft capital to get the one he wants 

 

Take Kinlaw if available and roll on 

Well if not this year then when. We need qb as soon as possible  if we want to compete against  Mahomes in January 

[lollygagger8]

If Brown or Kinlaw are there at #13, you take them. 

[coltsfanatic24]

My non QB picks at 13 based on talent and value.

 

1. Jerry Jeudy, WR

2. Javon Kinlaw, DT

3. CeeDee Lamb, WR

4. AJ Epenesa, Edge

5. Grant Delprit, S