Colts Offense Not Sexy Right Now But...

[Stephen]

On 9/17/2018 at 7:48 PM, jvan1973 said:

Ebron has a td in each of the last 2 games.  Grant had a great game against the Bengals.   What big name weapons has Tom Brady ever had outside of Moss

Wes welker

[lollygagger8]

1 hour ago, Flash7 said:

Not to be argumentative, just trying to clarify things a bit.

 

The YPA is an important stat. To illustrate its importance, let's do a quick mental exercise.

 

1. Imagine a QB throwing for 1.0 YPA. Would this provide better odds for success?

2. And now imagine a QB throwing for 10 YPA. Would this provide better odds for success?

 

Based on those two questions, you can see that there is a spectrum for where YPA ca translate into success, with 1 being very poor odds and 10 being great odds for success. Most successful QBs land 6.5 and above. Good QBs (like Brady) usually land 7.0 and above.

 

 

The graphic that I've inserted is from ESPN.com. Brady's career YPA is 7.5. Luck's YPA in this new sstem is currently at 5.9, so it's is completely reasonable to think that if we want to have a successful offense like Brady and the Patriots have had over the last decade, Luck and the Colts need to improve in this area.

 

Fair points, and well put! 

 

Would it make for better odds of winning for a QB to throw 300 yards or 400 yards? Of course 400, but that doesn't always translate to Wins and Losses.

 

Take our defense for example. Yes, it's too early to tell 2 games in, but they give up a lot of yards but the opposing offense doesn't score as many points because they are forced to kick FG's instead of TDs when the Defense tightens up. Those type of instances don't matter if you have a 10 YPA but you still lose the game. 

 

I think Luck has been at a disadvantage of coaching, offense schemes, OC changes and being injured. Brady is the king of the dink and dunk offense and for the most part, he lets the receiver do the work and (as I initially said) made a great career off it. Once Luck has time in Reich's scheme I think we'll see this YPA stat jump up just like Brady's.  

 

 

[SteelCityColt]

To somewhat jump in... Y/A isn't wholly on the QB, for example a whopping 2,334 yards out of 3,554 passing yards total for Brady in 2016 were yards made after the catch. I.e. you can dink and dunk and still move the ball if your O and play makers are built the right way. 

 

I'd also add I really like the  ANY/A (Net Adjusted Yards/Attempt) stat which rolls in sacks/interceptions and TDs into the mix. Formula is (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks).

 

When we look at QBs since Luck came into the league..

http://pfref.com/tiny/6bW5Y

 

As with any stat, in isolation it shouldn't be held up as the one metric to rule them all. I mean Matt Schaub has a better Y/A & ANY/A then Luck, would you have taken him over #12?

[Flash7]

1 hour ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

Fair points, and well put! 

 

1) Would it make for better odds of winning for a QB to throw 300 yards or 400 yards? Of course 400, but that doesn't always translate to Wins and Losses.

 

2) Take our defense for example. Yes, it's too early to tell 2 games in, but they give up a lot of yards but the opposing offense doesn't score as many points because they are forced to kick FG's instead of TDs when the Defense tightens up. Those type of instances don't matter if you have a 10 YPA but you still lose the game. 

 

I think Luck has been at a disadvantage of coaching, offense schemes, OC changes and being injured. Brady is the king of the dink and dunk offense and for the most part, he lets the receiver do the work and (as I initially said) made a great career off it. Once Luck has time in Reich's scheme I think we'll see this YPA stat jump up just like Brady's.  

 

 

I think that we are not far apart in our assessments. As you stated, "Once Luck has time in Reich's scheme I think we'll see this YPA stat jump up just like Brady's."

 

We are in full agreement here, and is basically the crux of the argument. Currently, Luck is not meeting the 'Brady standard' is all that we are saying.  We are in agreement that Luck's 5.9 YPA will improve as the season progresses, the O-line health improves, and the team gains familiarity with the offense. 

 

Please kindly allow me to address a few of your other statements: (numbered and bolded)

1) A quarter back throwing for 400 yards increases the odds of winning. Does it ALWAYS translate to a win? No, of course not, but you should always strive to better your odds of winning, right?

 

2) In your given scenario, the QB had a 10 YPA and still lost the game. In that same instance, would it help to have a 5.9 YPA? No, right? You'd still prefer the 10 YPA because it gives you a better chance at winning. In this instance, it didn't translate to a win, but overall in the long run a 10 YPA will translate to more wins.

 

Here's to hoping for improvement in all phases. I like the direction we're headed in. Go Colts!

[indyagent17]

it seems for years that if we throw and incompletion on first down we always run on second down and team just see it coming that was the case under Pagano I hope we are more inventive 

[lollygagger8]

23 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

I think that we are not far apart in our assessments. As you stated, "Once Luck has time in Reich's scheme I think we'll see this YPA stat jump up just like Brady's."

 

We are in full agreement here, and is basically the crux of the argument. Currently, Luck is not meeting the 'Brady standard' is all that we are saying.  We are in agreement that Luck's 5.9 YPA will improve as the season progresses, the O-line health improves, and the team gains familiarity with the offense. 

 

Please kindly allow me to address a few of your other statements: (numbered and bolded)

1) A quarter back throwing for 400 yards increases the odds of winning. Does it ALWAYS translate to a win? No, of course not, but you should always strive to better your odds of winning, right?

 

2) In your given scenario, the QB had a 10 YPA and still lost the game. In that same instance, would it help to have a 5.9 YPA? No, right? You'd still prefer the 10 YPA because it gives you a better chance at winning. In this instance, it didn't translate to a win, but overall in the long run a 10 YPA will translate to more wins.

 

Here's to hoping for improvement in all phases. I like the direction we're headed in. Go Colts!

 

I agree it helps, and should improve your chances but definitely not the be all end all stat. I guess y'all care more about YPA than I do. lol

 

I'd rather have a low YPA and the Win, than a high YPA and a loss.

 

 

[IndySouthsider]

3 hours ago, Flash7 said:

Not to be argumentative, just trying to clarify things a bit.

 

The YPA is an important stat. To illustrate its importance, let's do a quick mental exercise.

 

1. Imagine a QB throwing for 1.0 YPA. Would this provide better odds for success?

2. And now imagine a QB throwing for 10 YPA. Would this provide better odds for success?

 

Based on those two questions, you can see that there is a spectrum for where YPA ca translate into success, with 1 being very poor odds and 10 being great odds for success. Most successful QBs land 6.5 and above. Good QBs (like Brady) usually land 7.0 and above.

 

 

The graphic that I've inserted is from ESPN.com. Brady's career YPA is 7.5. Luck's YPA in this new sstem is currently at 5.9, so it's is completely reasonable to think that if we want to have a successful offense like Brady and the Patriots have had over the last decade, Luck and the Colts need to improve in this area.

This is the crux of the issue. And nobody is saying it’s an Andrew problem. It’s merely a Colts issue and one to keep an eye on. History show teams under 6YPA don’t win many games and almost never make the playoffs.

[Flash7]

16 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

I agree it helps, and should improve your chances but definitely not the be all end all stat. I guess y'all care more about YPA than I do. lol

 

I'd rather have a low YPA and the Win, than a high YPA and a loss.

 

 

Agreed, it's not the end-all be-all stat. Aside from your win-loss record, there probably isn't an end-all be-all stat. I guess we do find it more important, but not worries.

 

To the portion in bold:

 

Your statement is akin to saying "I'd rather have a RB with a lower YPC and the win, than a RB with a high YPC than a loss. You have provided a false dichotomy. It's the win that's the most important factor in your statement. Given the option, everyone would prefer a RB with a higher YPC, as they should with the QB (offense overall) and the YPA.

 

Would you rather have a QB with a low YPA and a loss, or a QB with a high YPA and a win? This statement is also unfair, But it's more probable to occur than the statement you provided.

 

BTW -You don't have to respond. I just found the argument in bold not compelling is all. I'm sure we can keep going back and forth, but I'm fine here; however, please feel free to have the last say if you'd like.