My Numbers Say We Are In Really Good Cap Shape For 2012

[BmoreColt]

If Pagano is as good as people say he is with using the players that he has to their advantages, then he won't switch the colts to a base 3-4 defense. We are just a couple of pieces away from having a very good base 4-3 defense, so I don't think Pagano would want to mess that up. I think a base 4-3 defense with hybrid formations is what Pagano should do to maximize our players' talents.

Don't just assume that we will draft Andrew Luck. Sure it may seem like it, but that's all just speculation, random unnamed sources, and possibly smokescreens. I bet Irsay has learned a few tricks from Bill Polian about hiding his intentions to make people think that the colts will do something else. No one ever new who Bill Polian would draft, so I think Irsay has learned from his experience. I was worried the colts wouldn't draft a LT last year, which shows how good they are at keeping secrets.

Read this it's about the Ravens formation.

http://mobile.baltimorebeatdown.com/2010/4/9/1412079/football-101-the-ravens-hybrid

[Moncrief]

Freeney can't really force the Colts hand. He agrees to an extension or he's traded, or cut.

Look at what you want to do with him(which is far too high in my opinion).

You'd have to lower the 2012 cap hit to make it more cap friendly short term.

2012 5m(existing cap hit), Signing bonus(5 million), base salary of say 3 million)= 13

2013 SB 5 million base salary 10= 15

2014 SB 5 million base salary 11=16

2015 SB 5 million base salary 12=17

Total

20 Million up front, 55 total

That would lower his 2012 cap hit 6 million, and give a slight increase to your proposed #'s.

If the Colts offered him that deal, he'd break his wrist and go on IR trying to sign it so fast.

I'm thinking more along the lines of a 18 million signing bonus over 3 years.with 1, 6, 10 million base salaries would get him under contract.

2012 5m(existing cap hit), Signing bonus(6 million), base salary of say 1 million)= 13

2013 SB 6 million + base salary 8 =14

2014 SB 6 million + base salary 10 =16

Total extension 3 years 18 up front 37 total.

Who really knows what his asking price will be and what he would be willing to accept. The fun part of negotiations.

The key to any deal would be to have a low base salary for him in 2012, since he's getting the signing bonus in 2012 to offset it, to make it more cap friendly.

Hey not cool I broke my wrist man. But I wasn't signing a contract worth that much money either. I would probably drop his numbers to 16 million over 3 years.

[BmoreColt]

Freeney can't really force the Colts hand. He agrees to an extension or he's traded, or cut.

Look at what you want to do with him(which is far too high in my opinion).

You'd have to lower the 2012 cap hit to make it more cap friendly short term.

2012 5m(existing cap hit), Signing bonus(5 million), base salary of say 3 million)= 13

2013 SB 5 million base salary 10= 15

2014 SB 5 million base salary 11=16

2015 SB 5 million base salary 12=17

Total

20 Million up front, 55 total

That would lower his 2012 cap hit 6 million, and give a slight increase to your proposed #'s.

If the Colts offered him that deal, he'd break his wrist and go on IR trying to sign it so fast.

I'm thinking more along the lines of a 18 million signing bonus over 3 years.with 1, 6, 10 million base salaries would get him under contract.

2012 5m(existing cap hit), Signing bonus(6 million), base salary of say 1 million)= 13

2013 SB 6 million + base salary 8 =14

2014 SB 6 million + base salary 10 =16

Total extension 3 years 18 up front 37 total.

Who really knows what his asking price will be and what he would be willing to accept. The fun part of negotiations.

The key to any deal would be to have a low base salary for him in 2012, since he's getting the signing bonus in 2012 to offset it, to make it more cap friendly.

My question is will Freeney agree to such a deal? I feel like he, Mathis, Wayne won't offer discounts..

[UndecidedFrog]

How much of your personal time would we be saving if we just cut Peyton so you can stop running hypothetical numbers for folks? We could easily re sign everyone else in that instance correct? Time is money!

I would save lots, but fail to convince any.

[UndecidedFrog]

I'm interested in the cap dollars. My objective with the above scenarios is to have those players with the cap hits I mentioned. It can be done. You're converting my cap hit figures to salary figures, and that's throwing the entire projection off.

I'm not talking about Ray Edwards deal. I'm talking about the model used for his deal. And for Tamba Hali's deal, both of which were done under the new CBA. Freeney will accept an extension that guarantees him more money than what he'd make if he forced the Colts' hand. And we can do that and lower his cap hit for 2012.

Then please provide me what I asked for:

If you want Freeney to forego his $14.035MM salary due in 2012, tell me what you have in mind to present to him that he will accept;

a) How many years

b) upfront bonus money

c) salaries for each year

Why don't you want to give me what I ask?

[Superman]

Then please provide me what I asked for:

If you want Freeney to forego his $14.035MM salary due in 2012, tell me what you have in mind to present to him that he will accept;

a) How many years

b) upfront bonus money

c) salaries for each year

Why don't you want to give me what I ask?

What's wrong with $60 million, four years, $20 million guaranteed? That's not on top of his current contract, that requires a significant restructure of his 2012 compensation and cap hit. After all, that's the entire objective of addressing his contract.

I presented those numbers two posts ago.

[UndecidedFrog]

What's wrong with $60 million, four years, $20 million guaranteed? That's not on top of his current contract, that requires a significant restructure of his 2012 compensation and cap hit. After all, that's the entire objective of addressing his contract.

I presented those numbers two posts ago.

I'm sorry. Now I am totally confused. Were the numbers you provided salaries or cap hits?

[FireJimCaldwell]

What's wrong with $60 million, four years, $20 million guaranteed? That's not on top of his current contract, that requires a significant restructure of his 2012 compensation and cap hit. After all, that's the entire objective of addressing his contract.

I presented those numbers two posts ago.

2012

5 million existing bonus money

5 million new bonus money

You are at 10 million with the need of a base salary

10 million +x= 2012 cap hit.

2013

5 million new bonus money

+base salary of x

= 2013 cap hit

2014

5 million new bonus money

+ base salary of x

= 2014 cap hit

2015

5 million new bonus money

+ base salary of x

= 2015 cap hit

That's the structure based on a 20 million signing bonus.

[John Dee]

My question is will Freeney agree to such a deal? I feel like he, Mathis, Wayne won't offer discounts..

Freeney would... he has been "stealing" money for years... but I would hope Indy does not even try.. just trade this dud to a sack hungry team. Cause that is ALL DFree is good for.

Mathis won't give an inch I am thinking... He is 2x the all around player D Free is. I hope Indy keeps Mathis and lets DF go on somewhere else that will pay him a million a year for "A" single solo tackle a season. Oh and his 8 or whatever sack totals for a team that's D was on the field 24/7.

Freeney's gotta go...

Wayne? gone.

I just hope Indy keeps the productive player on the DL over the "hyped" player. Mathis will be a MONSTER OLB in a hybrid 3-4.

A more gifted Vrable.

Big changes a coming....

[BmoreColt]

Freeney would... he has been "stealing" money for years... but I would hope Indy does not even try.. just trade this dud to a sack hungry team. Cause that is ALL DFree is good for.

Mathis won't give an inch I am thinking... He is 2x the all around player D Free is. I hope Indy keeps Mathis and lets DF go on somewhere else that will pay him a million a year for "A" single solo tackle a season. Oh and his 8 or whatever sack totals for a team that's D was on the field 24/7.

Freeney's gotta go...

Wayne? gone.

I just hope Indy keeps the productive player on the DL over the "hyped" player. Mathis will be a MONSTER OLB in a hybrid 3-4.

A more gifted Vrable.

Big changes a coming....

I am all for freeney being traded, I just don't see irsay doing it...

[UndecidedFrog]

Freeney would... he has been "stealing" money for years... but I would hope Indy does not even try.. just trade this dud to a sack hungry team. Cause that is ALL DFree is good for.

Mathis won't give an inch I am thinking... He is 2x the all around player D Free is. I hope Indy keeps Mathis and lets DF go on somewhere else that will pay him a million a year for "A" single solo tackle a season. Oh and his 8 or whatever sack totals for a team that's D was on the field 24/7.

Freeney's gotta go...

Wayne? gone.

I just hope Indy keeps the productive player on the DL over the "hyped" player. Mathis will be a MONSTER OLB in a hybrid 3-4.

A more gifted Vrable.

Big changes a coming....

Here are some facts to consider:

The current franchise tag for DEs is $10.6MM

Here is Freeney's existing contract:

6 year term

Signing bonus paid in 2007 of $15

Miscl. bonus paid in 2008 of $12.5

Salaries: 0.75; 0.75; 6.22; 8.825; 11.42; 14.035

Average per year income to Freeeney = $11.58MM

I don't see that his income is out of line. What provides the perception is the strange way his contract was back-loaded.

[UndecidedFrog]

2012

5 million existing bonus money

5 million new bonus money

You are at 10 million with the need of a base salary

10 million +x= 2012 cap hit.

2013

5 million new bonus money

+base salary of x

= 2013 cap hit

2014

5 million new bonus money

+ base salary of x

= 2014 cap hit

2015

5 million new bonus money

+ base salary of x

= 2015 cap hit

That's the structure based on a 20 million signing bonus.

Yes, however, I don't think he understands that he cannot make the accounting for the $5MM existing bonus money disappear in 2012.

Even if you cut Freeney, that $5MM existing bonus money will hit the cap for 2012.

[UndecidedFrog]

BMoreColt,

I think we are done with your mock cap. Overall, I think it is fairly realistic with 2 exceptions:

1) PM new contract negotiation where he would have to take a 45% discount from his current contract

2) Wayne's new contract, which may not represent enough of an upgrade that he may be offered by another team.

Check out the summary I provided for you in post #266, of this thread.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Yes, however, I don't think he understands that he cannot make the accounting for the $5MM existing bonus money disappear in 2012.

Even if you cut Freeney, that $5MM existing bonus money will hit the cap for 2012.

That seems to be the case, which is why i tried to lay it out for him to sub x in at values he chooses. The #'s he gave you to start with, like you said made Freeney's # go up, which will simply not happen.

If he's extended, I'd say Freeney will have an 8-12 million 2012 cap hit, anything higher you have to consider whether he's worth it with a defense that will likely be on the move to a 3-4 and his age starts to creep into play.

[UndecidedFrog]

That seems to be the case, which is why i tried to lay it out for him to sub x in at values he chooses. The #'s he gave you to start with, like you said made Freeney's # go up, which will simply not happen.

If he's extended, I'd say Freeney will have an 8-12 million 2012 cap hit, anything higher you have to consider whether he's worth it with a defense that will likely be on the move to a 3-4 and his age starts to creep into play.

Yes, age, 3-4 defense, and next best alternatives come into play.

However, if you look at his existing 6-year contract, the average annual compensation he received was contracted to be $11.58MM, which isn't that far off for top DEs since the franchise tag has been set this year for DEs at $10.6MM.

Whatever #s he provides to me for the base salaries, and upfront bonuses going forward, the total deal must be attractive enough for Freeney to swap his currently scheduled $14.035MM salary for the upcoming season.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Yes, age, 3-4 defense, and next best alternatives come into play.

However, if you look at his existing 6-year contract, the average annual compensation he received was contracted to be $11.58MM, which isn't that far off for top DEs since the franchise tag has been set this year for DEs at $10.6MM.

Whatever #s he provides to me for the base salaries, and upfront bonuses going forward, the total deal must be attractive enough for Freeney to swap his currently scheduled $14.035MM salary for the upcoming season.

I see the reasoning, but there is no way he earns 14 million base salary, here or anywhere, so that # isn't a valid option. They simply cut him, or trade him if he refuses to sign an extension.

With that said, I do think that at least 12 of that will be used as part of a signing bonus to extended him 3-4 years and he will have a lower base salary in 2012 as compared to the remaining years, or he won't be a Colt.

[Mameluc]

There is always a chance, and that chance will be directly proportional to how much of a discount PM will accept as compared with the current contract.

Remember that releasing PM from the current contract will result in a one-time hit to the 2012 cap of $10.4MM.

Any new deal will just add on top of that.

Currently, his contract calls for the option bonus to be paid in March, and a salary of $7.4MM on top of that. That is $35.4 real dollars, but in salary cap hit, it is less because of the pro-ration of both the signing bonus ($20) and the option bonus ($28) over the 5 year contract. The salary cap hit of the current contract is therefore:

$4 pro-rated portion of the signing bonus paid in 2011

$5.6 pro-rated portion of the option bonus paid in March 2012

$7.4 salary for 2012

$17 total salary cap hit for 2012.

Therefore, any new contract between the Colts and PM to be considered more favorable than current contract, PM must agree to a contract that has a 2012 salary cap hit of $6.6 or less. Do you understand how I got that figure? $17 (original) -$10.4 (cap hit from release) = $6.6 (difference)

i was actally thinking aboyt that, the dead cap hit + the new contract...cant they make a backloaded contract? say a 3 year deal that takes most of the cap hit on year 2 and 3, not year 1 so it doesnt hurt our cap that much this year

[UndecidedFrog]

I see the reasoning, but there is no way he earns 14 million base salary, here or anywhere, so that # isn't a valid option. They simply cut him, or trade him if he refuses to sign an extension.

With that said, I do think that at least 12 of that will be used as part of a signing bonus to extended him 3-4 years and he will have a lower base salary in 2012 as compared to the remaining years, or he won't be a Colt.

Yes, cutting him is ALWAYS an option. By doing that, you would save $14.035MM of the $19MM projected cap hit (the $5MM is still there), and then go and shop for his replacement that can be had for something less than $14.035MM.

It was pretty unsavvy of him and his agent to agree to the strangely constructed 6-year deal he is currently in, with the non-guaranteed balloon at the last year of his contract, making him that much more attractive to be cut. If I were his agent, I would have spread out his base salaries more evenly over the 6 years.

[UndecidedFrog]

i was actally thinking aboyt that, the dead cap hit + the new contract...cant they make a backloaded contract? say a 3 year deal that takes most of the cap hit on year 2 and 3, not year 1 so it doesnt hurt our cap that much this year

Yes, they can easily make a back-loaded contract that will hit the cap in years 2 and 3, while sparing year 1.

However, this will be highly unattractive to PM and Condon.

One such backloaded construct is

a) 3 year deal

b) roster bonus to be paid in the 2nd year $XX

c) roster bonus to be paid in the 3rd year $YY

d) salary for year 1: $aa

e) salary for year 2: $bb

f) salary for year 3: $cc

You can make $aa really small, like vet minimum ($0.95), and you can make XX, YY, bb, and cc large.

However, no NFL player contracts are guaranteed. Players can be cut at anytime. Therefore upfront signing bonus monies are how players and their agents get paid sooner rather than run the risk of being cut later. Imagine a scenario using the above contract construct, where the Colts cut PM after the 1st year. That is why PM and his agent won't find that construct very attractive.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Yes, cutting him is ALWAYS an option. By doing that, you would save $14.035MM of the $19MM projected cap hit (the $5MM is still there), and then go and shop for his replacement that can be had for something less than $14.035MM.

It was pretty unsavvy of him and his agent to agree to the strangely constructed 6-year deal he is currently in, with the non-guaranteed balloon at the last year of his contract, making him that much more attractive to be cut. If I were his agent, I would have spread out his base salaries more evenly over the 6 years.

Those balloons have been built into Colts contracts for easy decision points. I think that is a Polian instrument. If at that point in time the player is worth it, it's rolled into an extension and things move forward. If they feel they aren't, then they cut the guy loose or trade them.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Yes, they can easily make a back-loaded contract that will hit the cap in years 2 and 3, while sparing year 1.

However, this will be highly unattractive to PM and Condon.

One such backloaded construct is

a) 3 year deal

b) miscl. bonus to be paid in the 2nd year $XX

c) miscl. bonus to be paid in the 3rd year $YY

d) salary for year 1: $aa

e) salary for year 2: $bb

f) salary for year 3: $cc

You can make $aa really small, like vet minimum ($0.95), and you can make XX, YY, bb, and cc large.

However, no NFL player contracts are guaranteed. Players can be cut at anytime. Therefore upfront bonus monies are how players and their agents get paid sooner rather than run the risk of being cut later. Imagine a scenario using the above contract construct, where the Colts cut PM after the 1st year. That is why PM and his agent won't find that construct very attractive.

They can stipulate it to make it guaranteed vs. injury or vs. performance, which in the latter would make it guaranteed. It's just rarely done for the full contract.

[BmoreColt]

BMoreColt,

I think we are done with your mock cap. Overall, I think it is fairly realistic with 2 exceptions:

1) PM new contract negotiation where he would have to take a 45% discount from his current contract

2) Wayne's new contract, which may not represent enough of an upgrade that he may be offered by another team.

Check out the summary I provided for you in post #266, of this thread.

No way cause I have some new ideas, theres about two three players in free agency we need, so You and I have work to do!

[UndecidedFrog]

Those balloons have been built into Colts contracts for easy decision points. I think that is a Polian instrument. If at that point in time the player is worth it, it's rolled into an extension and things move forward. If they feel they aren't, then they cut the guy loose or trade them.

That was savvy of Polian and not so savvy of Freeney's agent.

It artificially inflates the contract value making it seem more attractive to the player, yet in reality, the larger the balloon only makes it that much easier to cut him in his last year.

[UndecidedFrog]

No way cause I have some new ideas, theres about two three players in free agency we need, so You and I have work to do!

OK, I have your mock cap spreadsheet saved.

So, when you have decided on who you want to add, let me know, as well as who you will need to restructure/cut to find room. Currently you are only $300K under the cap. :bounce:

[BmoreColt]

OK, I have your mock cap spreadsheet saved.

So, when you have decided on who you want to add, let me know, as well as who you will need to restructure/cut to find room. Currently you are only $300K under the cap. :bounce:

Frog your alright! This is more like our first convo on here when you first joined! I'm still curious about what I heard about Peyton having his deal reworked to not have any penalty per Bill Polian. and what Superman said about freeneys extension also has me curious.

[UndecidedFrog]

Frog your alright! This is more like our first convo on here when you first joined! I'm still curious about what I heard about Peyton having his deal reworked to not have any penalty per Bill Polian. and what Superman said about freeneys extension also has me curious.

I must have missed this....did BP offer a suggested deal for PM?

[coltnorth]

I'm somewhat confused about the Freeney situation. Is the cap hit less if you cut him rather than trade him? If not, why would you release him and get nothing when he has value for a trade?

[BmoreColt]

I must have missed this....did BP offer a suggested deal for PM?

He recently said the deal could be reworked without the crippling effects of the bonus if I am not mistaken. Which leads me to believe the same is true for extending Freeney, but that just means smaller salary year one of a new deal

[UndecidedFrog]

I'm somewhat confused about the Freeney situation. Is the cap hit less if you cut him rather than trade him? If not, why would you release him and get nothing when he has value for a trade?

If you cut him or trade him, the cap hit will still be $5MM.

In order to trade him, you will need to find a team that is willing to pick up his existing contract (in which he is in his last year) and his attached $14.035MM salary.

If you can find such a team willing to pick up that obligation, and provide you with a pick, you can trade.

The question becomes, if you can find such a team with which to trade, you will have to ask yourself what you are missing in valuing Freeney at $14.035MM.

[UndecidedFrog]

He recently said the deal could be reworked without the crippling effects of the bonus if I am not mistaken. Which leads me to believe the same is true for extending Freeney, but that just means smaller salary year one of a new deal

Did BP provide any details on how such a thing can happen? Or is he posturing on his radio show?

[BmoreColt]

Did BP provide any details on how such a thing can happen? Or is he posturing on his radio show?

Yea he was talking on his program I believe, but I wonder if such parameters exist from the contract, you would think Bill would know?

[BmoreColt]

If you cut him or trade him, the cap hit will still be $5MM.

In order to trade him, you will need to find a team that is willing to pick up his existing contract (in which he is in his last year) and his attached $14.035MM salary.

If you can find such a team willing to pick up that obligation, and provide you with a pick, you can trade.

The question becomes, if you can find such a team with which to trade, you will have to ask yourself what you are missing in valuing Freeney at $14.035MM.

A team hungry for just a 4-3 DE with pass rushing abilities would value him more than say the colts would switching to a new defense.

[UndecidedFrog]

Yea he was talking on his program I believe, but I wonder if such parameters exist from the contract, you would think Bill would know?

Who knows?

If BP has a way, he is probably taunting Irsay and Grigson that he knows more than they.

If BP doesn't have a way, he is posturing, with the same objective in mind.

We will only know if he can produce such a method so that CBA analysts can see and give their opinion if such method is doable.

[FireJimCaldwell]

He recently said the deal could be reworked without the crippling effects of the bonus if I am not mistaken. Which leads me to believe the same is true for extending Freeney, but that just means smaller salary year one of a new deal

The only way I could see that happening would be a pre 3/8 restructure where Manning forfeited the option bonus all together and played out the contract. In my opinion it can't be restructured, but others differ on that opinion and the NFL has not officially addressed it one way or another.

It would be nice if Bill would expand on that, but i doubt that happens.

I'm not saying Manning would do something like that even if allowed. He would be foolish to do that. I don't see him restructuring anything for a team that is pushing him out the door.

[BmoreColt]

The only way I could see that happening would be a pre 3/8 restructure where Manning forfeited the option bonus all together and played out the contract. In my opinion it can't be restructured, but others differ on that opinion and the NFL has not officially addressed it one way or another.

It would be nice if Bill would expand on that, but i doubt that happens.

I'm not saying Manning would do something like that even if allowed. He would be foolish to do that. I don't see him restructuring anything for a team that is pushing him out the door.

He can forfeit the option bonus?

[UndecidedFrog]

He can forfeit the option bonus?

I think he would run afoul of the NFLPA if he attempted that, as well as certain CBA rules regarding the renegotiation of contracts after the last game of the season has been played. Remember, that the March 8 exercise date is still within LY 2011.

[FireJimCaldwell]

He can forfeit the option bonus?

I'm not saying he can, I was saying that would be the only way I could foresee cap ramifications not being an issue.

[Superman]

I'm sorry. Now I am totally confused. Were the numbers you provided salaries or cap hits?

Cap hits. That's what I'm saying. Find a way to structure that kind of deal with those resulting cap hits, or something similar.

[Superman]

2012

5 million existing bonus money

5 million new bonus money

You are at 10 million with the need of a base salary

10 million +x= 2012 cap hit.

2013

5 million new bonus money

+base salary of x

= 2013 cap hit

2014

5 million new bonus money

+ base salary of x

= 2014 cap hit

2015

5 million new bonus money

+ base salary of x

= 2015 cap hit

That's the structure based on a 20 million signing bonus.

I didn't say a $20 million signing bonus. I said $20 million guaranteed. A lot of people use them interchangeably, but they're different. For instance, Kevin Kolb signed a contract with $21 million guaranteed, but a $10 million signing bonus.

We can take the $5 million bonus money on Freeney's contract for 2012 and roll that into his $20 million guaranteed on an extension. Bonus for 2012 is $5 million, plus a base salary of $6 million = a cap hit for 2012 of $11 million. Am I missing something? Are we not able to take his existing bonus due of $5 million and make that a part of the $20 million guaranteed for his extension?

[FireJimCaldwell]

I didn't say a $20 million signing bonus. I said $20 million guaranteed. A lot of people use them interchangeably, but they're different. For instance, Kevin Kolb signed a contract with $21 million guaranteed, but a $10 million signing bonus.

We can take the $5 million bonus money on Freeney's contract for 2012 and roll that into his $20 million guaranteed on an extension. Bonus for 2012 is $5 million, plus a base salary of $6 million = a cap hit for 2012 of $11 million. Am I missing something? Are we not able to take his existing bonus due of $5 million and make that a part of the $20 million guaranteed for his extension?

That 5 million is already been paid, It can't be treated as new money.

It's there

2012

5 million existing bonus dollars

+ x new bonus dollars

+ x base salary.

= 2012 cap hit.