My Numbers Say We Are In Really Good Cap Shape For 2012

[Larry Horseman]

I guess you don't seem to realize that the stats are historical, and have, by definition, incorporated all your intangibles, intuitions and emotions.

Actually, you could not be more wrong. Stats are defined in the exact opposite way--they are meant to show quantitative or qualitative analysis without intangibles, intuitions, and emotions (e.g., subjectivity). Stats are numerical facts or data. However, statistical analysis can qualify intangibles, intuitions, and emotions into stats, but there are always aspects that cannot be qualified and remain outside of mathematical evaluation. Different advanced NFL matrix have been trying for years to create a formula that adequately encompasses all aspects of a game and season. DVOA is an attempt to do so, and a very good one, but it still fails on certain levels. The Pats had a better DVOA than the Giants...should they have been SB champs because of that and not because of the actual game? Also, take ESPN's QBR, which includes intangibles, etc., and quarterback rating, which does not. Depending on the game, a QB can have a very high QB rating and very low QBR. Which one is the true statistic and best represents the effectiveness of a QB? Neither one fully encompasses all that is going on. Further, Tim Tebow is an excellent example of how stats do not fully represent the impact that subjective qualities such as an emotional adherence to belief have on an NFL game or a players true ability.

Look Frog, in the end, this is a philosophical debate (positivism/materialism/rationalism verses idealism/existentialism/other speculative philosophies) and this is not the proper place to have it at.

Just please don't misrepresent what statistics are and are not and make it seem like what you say cannot be refuted because it is grounded in stats: on their own, stats are one way to analyze a situation, not a complete analysis of a situation.

[BmoreColt]

So maybe I'm slow to "catch on to what Frog is doing"... but don't mistake "new poster" for not being able to read or form an opinion.

What I'm still seeing is someone presenting data, and giving their best interpretation of that data. Based on the numbers Frog sees, Frog thinks Manning is likely out the door, and has made every effort to explain why that is the logical conclusion. You see the same data, and have a different conclusion. That makes neither of you a savior or a hater, just inclined to forecast the situation differently. If Frog has attempted to convey his point too many times for your liking, you may, of course, ignore him. Having the opinion is still his prerogative, as is sharing it on this forum. Tracking his opinion or not is yours.

When you follow up by saying you'll apologize if Frog shows you more numbers (crunched to your satisfaction) it comes off as a little lazy. If you have a point to prove, then figure out how to prove it. Don't ask someone else to prove your arguement for you, especially when they disagree with you.

And Mr. Horseman, please don't start insulting people for being intelligent. From what I've read, Frog isn't just "spewing big words". The arguement sounds intelligent because it is, even where you don't agree.

He presented something I didnt ask him nor on the subject matter he presented. You have no idea what your saying about this topic, what are you the police? People see what he does it's deeper than this particular thread, I also have in fact crunched the numbers a month ago on the draft forum, and I'm doing it again for another thread I'll post. Way to interject when you have no idea what your talking about, now get off me and FALL BACK!

[schwamm]

Just please don't misrepresent what statistics are and are not and make it seem like what you say cannot be refuted because it is grounded in stats: on their own, stats are one way to analyze a situation, not a complete analysis of a situation.

Very true.

If the statement is "based on what I see in the stats, these is my expectations for the outcome", I can accept almost everything Frog is suggesting. If on the other hand the arguement is phrased as "these are the stats, and there is no other logical conclusion but to accept my thinking as gospel", I part ways. To this point, I haven't seen any pressure to agree, but I still haven't managed to read every post by Frog.

[UndecidedFrog]

How did you get that 121#? That's with who brought back? I am more interested

In the totality of the salary cap to see who can be reworked, resigned, cut.. Seeing what the best options draft and player wise going forward. I did the cap and had the colts with 5-10 free cap space after resignings and all...

The team salary cap for 2012 is projected to be $121.2MM. That figure is the total budget for player personnel compensation (as calculated under the cap rules) that all 32 teams must be at or under according to NFL rules.

The team salary cap for 2011 was $120.0MM.

[schwamm]

He presented something I didnt ask him nor on the subject matter he presented. You have no idea what your saying about this topic, what are you the police? People see what he does it's deeper than this particular thread, I also have in fact crunched the numbers a month ago on the draft forum, and I'm doing it again for another thread I'll post. Way to interject when you have no idea what your talking about, now get off me and FALL BACK!

You have no idea how much I do or don't know about the subject. Again, playing the new poster card is dull and ignorant. I suppose you imagine you are better versed in the Colts than I and a better fan because you've entered a couple more thoughts in this forum than I. That is silly. For all I know you have been a fan since the beginning of time, and have a perfect memory of all facts Colts related, but I'm not inclined to assume that just because you have a whopping 988 posts.

I encourage you to consider debunking his arguement rather than attacking him as a hater. He can present whatever information suits him. It doesn't really matter what you asked for, nor does it matter if he delivered on your requests or not. I can only assume he is not on the forum for your benefit.

[schwamm]

I retract part of that. I don't mean to call you dull or ignorant. Just that playing the Newbie card comes accross that way.

[Larry Horseman]

You have no idea how much I do or don't know about the subject. Again, playing the new poster card is dull and ignorant. I suppose you imagine you are better versed in the Colts than I and a better fan because you've entered a couple more thoughts in this forum than I. That is silly. For all I know you have been a fan since the beginning of time, and have a perfect memory of all facts Colts related, but I'm not inclined to assume that just because you have a whopping 988 posts.

I encourage you to consider debunking his arguement rather than attacking him as a hater. He can present whatever information suits him. It doesn't really matter what you asked for, nor does it matter if he delivered on your requests or not. I can only assume he is not on the forum for your benefit.

Frog, is that you? J/K

In all seriousness, Frog, I forgot to put in my last post that I'm not attacking you or your stance, just pointing out that things--stats--aren't always what they seem. In other words, it is a friendly debate...

[braveheartcolt]

He presented something I didnt ask him nor on the subject matter he presented. You have no idea what your saying about this topic, what are you the police? People see what he does it's deeper than this particular thread, I also have in fact crunched the numbers a month ago on the draft forum, and I'm doing it again for another thread I'll post. Way to interject when you have no idea what your talking about, now get off me and FALL BACK!

I see what he does, and I like it.

[UndecidedFrog]

Actually, you could not be more wrong. Stats are defined in the exact opposite way--they are meant to show quantitative or qualitative analysis without intangibles, intuitions, and emotions (e.g., subjectivity). Stats are numerical facts or data.

Inasmuch as these intangibles, intuitions, and emotions go into the final outcome of performance and age, the statistics do, in fact, pick them up. If you want to argue that PM outweighs every other elite QB, you will have to 1) identify which qualities you are measuring, and 2) measure those qualities with the same objective method that can be used on other elite QBs.

Just please don't misrepresent what statistics are and are not and make it seem like what you say cannot be refuted because it is grounded in stats: on their own, stats are one way to analyze a situation, not a complete analysis of a situation.

I do not misrepresent anything. I present statistics and their findings. You can draw your own conclusions.

I have never claimed that anything I say cannot be refuted because it is grounded in stats. Instead, I say my opinions are supported by these stats.

If you have something more solid than a claim about the relative subjective effects of intangibles, intuitions etc., I shall be glad to review it.

[Ramblinwreck7]

Gosh, you people think I'm going to read all of this? Good grief, I don't have hours to spend on this forum lol... GoGocolts8818, try to limit it to less than a 20 page documentary next time .

[BmoreColt]

I retract part of that. I don't mean to call you dull or ignorant. Just that playing the Newbie card comes accross that way.

Since he recently started he has been suttley attacking manning myself and others see it. It has nothing to do with him being new and not being a colts fan, you are misinterpreting. We were all new at some point!

[Superman]

He presented something I didnt ask him nor on the subject matter he presented. You have no idea what your saying about this topic, what are you the police? People see what he does it's deeper than this particular thread, I also have in fact crunched the numbers a month ago on the draft forum, and I'm doing it again for another thread I'll post. Way to interject when you have no idea what your talking about, now get off me and FALL BACK!

Woosa, holmes. Woosa.

[UndecidedFrog]

He presented something I didnt ask him nor on the subject matter he presented. You have no idea what your saying about this topic, what are you the police? People see what he does it's deeper than this particular thread, I also have in fact crunched the numbers a month ago on the draft forum, and I'm doing it again for another thread I'll post. Way to interject when you have no idea what your talking about, now get off me and FALL BACK!

LOL, I think I am allowed to present whatever I want (as long as it is relevant to the OP) without specifically being asked by you.

[jtcoltsfan]

Thanks for sharing.

From what I understand of your post above, you are a Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, Marvin Harrison, and Bob Sanders fan.

What happened when Marvin Harrison left the Colts? Did you become less of a Colts fan?

What will happen when all of them leave the Colts? Will you still remain a Colts fan?

Yes, the team is comprised of its players. However, no one player, or even a set of players is bigger than the team.

The Colts existed before any of the players you mentioned were born, and the Colts will continue to exist way after they retire.

A true Colts fan understands this, and will not work against the team in favor of any one player on the team.

Great point. It hurt to see Dickerson, Faulk, Harbaugh, Dawkins, Buchanan, Edge, Morris, Harrison, June, and others go, but it doesn't make any 'true' fan follow the team less.

[cmgww]

[Larry Horseman]

Inasmuch as these intangibles, intuitions, and emotions go into the final outcome of performance and age, the statistics do, in fact, pick them up.

So you are saying there is a matrix that is able to take into account all similarities and differences between the specific eras a QB played in (e.g., the difference between JU's era and PM's era) to create a weighted aspect to the formula for calculating QB longevity, and that it has been included in the analysis you presented? If that is not what you are saying then the statistics do not include all intangibles that impact QB longevity and performance.

If you want to argue that PM outweighs every other elite QB, you will have to 1) identify which qualities you are measuring, and 2) measure those qualities with the same objective method that can be used on other elite QBs.

I wasn't arguing that. I was arguing that there is no way you can prove that he is not an outlier (obviously it is more probable that he is not an outlier but that is not my point). The stats give us an idea of when QBs decline, but that decline also varies on a case by case basis based on individual factors that cannot be completely evaluated through a valid statistical study (also see above comment). I also provided three examples of how stats are unable to show all aspects of a certain NFL-related subject with 100% accuracy and you did not comment on it at all.

I do not misrepresent anything. I present statistics and their findings. You can draw your own conclusions.

I have never claimed that anything I say cannot be refuted because it is grounded in stats. Instead, I say my opinions are supported by these stats. If you have something more solid than a claim about the relative subjective effects of intangibles, intuitions etc., I shall be glad to review it.

This isn't about me proving anything aside from letting you know that while I appreciate the stats, there are other variables that make them one piece of the puzzle. You use stats to back your point, which is fine and I agree that they do, but I also say that you are being short-sided to think that your point stands on two legs by only using statistics. Frog, I respect what you are bringing to the table but in analysis, like in life, variety is the spice! I don't really want to keep continuing this discussion, but if we do let's do it in one of your threads on QBs because this has completely derailed this thread.

How about the Colts cap? Doesn't seem like it is in that bad of shape, but Irsay keeps saying otherwise. Maybe because he wants to sign Mathis, Garcon, and possible Wayne and Saturday? Couldn't Mathis and Wayne could be brought back for about the same amount that DFree is due in 2012? I also read something on ESPN today where it was said the cap might actually shrink a little this year.

[UndecidedFrog]

So you are saying there is a matrix that is able to take into account all similarities and differences between the specific eras a QB played in (e.g., the difference between JU's era and PM's era) to create a weighted aspect to the formula for calculating QB longevity, and that it has been included in the analysis you presented? If that is not what you are saying then the statistics do not include all intangibles that impact QB longevity and performance.

No, you misunderstand. For every nebulous subjective intangible criteria you can drum up to argue that PM is not comparable to all other elite franchise QBs in the past, you will have to provide that criteria and a objective way to measure it for historical QBs to show why PM is not comparable. Instead you rely on this mystery category to make your case. You can argue it anyway you want. However, the studies I cited are valid based on the criteria and methodology they employed.

I wasn't arguing that. I was arguing that there is no way you can prove that he is not an outlier (obviously it is more probable that he is not an outlier but that is not my point). The stats give us an idea of when QBs decline, but that decline also varies on a case by case basis based on individual factors that cannot be completely evaluated through a valid statistical study (also see above comment). I also provided three examples of how stats are unable to show all aspects of a certain NFL-related subject with 100% accuracy and you did not comment on it at all.

I don't have to prove that he is NOT an outlier. He is an elite franchise QB according to the criteria set forth by the studies I cited. As such, the findings of the studies are applicable to PM. It is your argument that PM is an outlier. If you want me to believe that, you had better put forth some evidence to support that. On average, any QB that fits the criteria of the study will have a certain probability that their longevity will be similar to what the studies have found. Sure PM may not fall within the average. However, since there is no way on knowing if PM will be an outlier until he is one, we must rely on what history has shown us. On average, elite franchise QBs begin their decline in performance at the age of 30-31. On average, elite QBs retire, or should retire (for the benefit of their team) around the age of 35-36. Are there outliers? Sure, we know there are. The studies even identified them as less than a handful (Elway, Favre, Warner and Moon). But to focus on 4 examples, without looking at the body of the average, you are biasing yourself to hope that PM will be of the few, rather than one of the many.

This isn't about me proving anything aside from letting you know that while I appreciate the stats, there are other variables that make them one piece of the puzzle. You use stats to back your point, which is fine and I agree that they do, but I also say that you are being short-sided to think that your point stands on two legs by only using statistics. Frog, I respect what you are bringing to the table but in analysis, like in life, variety is the spice! I don't really want to keep continuing this discussion, but if we do let's do it in one of your threads on QBs because this has completely derailed this thread.

You are very welcome to accept or not accept any stats I present. I am just supporting my opinion with some evidence. That's all.

How about the Colts cap? Doesn't seem like it is in that bad of shape, but Irsay keeps saying otherwise. Maybe because he wants to sign Mathis, Garcon, and possible Wayne and Saturday? Couldn't Mathis and Wayne could be brought back for about the same amount that DFree is due in 2012? I also read something on ESPN today where it was said the cap might actually shrink a little this year.

To answer your question regarding the shape of the Colts' cap, we must look at a few things:

1) Who on the team are off-contract in 2012? How much cap dollars will it take to re-sign them or replace them? Do they need to be replaced?

2) Which players represent the largest chunks of the cap, so that we know we will have to address restructuring their current contracts if we need space? I already know one of these contracts.

3) I am assuming that the 2012 team cap will be a 1% increase over the 2011 team cap of $120MM, which will be $121.2MM. If it shrinks, I will have to adjust my spreadsheets.

4) The players off contract in 2012 that I have identified thus far are: Diem, Foster, Garcon, Gonzales, Lacey, Mathis, Muir, Richard, Saturday, Tamme, Toudouze, Wayne, and Wheeler. In 2011, these guys represented $32.84MM to the 2011 cap.

5) The players on contract in 2012 (including a provision for Luck/RG3 and a #3 QB) represent $93.18MM to the 2012 cap.

6) If you assume that the players off contract in 2012 will play in 2012 for the same cap dollars as they played for in 2011, then we have a team total of $126.02MM, which is over the team cap for 2012 by about $4.82MM. Note here, that I have not even added the draftees except for QBs, or other FAs.

7) We know that the players off contract in 2012 will want more than what they played for in 2011, so you will have to restructure existing contracts, or decide to let some go, and replace them with cheaper FAs or draftees, or go without.

[UndecidedFrog]

Larry,

You tell me who you want to re-sign for how long, and how much, structured as base salary (not guaranteed) and signing bonus (guaranteed), and I can easily come up with a 2012 team cap # for you.

[BmoreColt]

Larry,

You tell me who you want to re-sign for how long, and how much, structured as base salary (not guaranteed) and signing bonus (guaranteed), and I can easily come up with a 2012 team cap # for you.

This is what I asked from firejimcaldwell originally, and then asked this of you, now you want to offer this up?

[UndecidedFrog]

This is what I asked from firejimcaldwell originally, and then asked this of you, now you want to offer this up?

Pardon me, is your name Larry?

[BmoreColt]

Pardon me, is your name Larry?

[Ramblinwreck7]

Pardon me, is your name Larry?

Pardon me, but is the pot calling the kettle black?

[Superman]

To answer your question regarding the shape of the Colts' cap, we must look at a few things:

1) Who on the team are off-contract in 2012? How much cap dollars will it take to re-sign them or replace them? Do they need to be replaced?

2) Which players represent the largest chunks of the cap, so that we know we will have to address restructuring their current contracts if we need space? I already know one of these contracts.

3) I am assuming that the 2012 team cap will be a 1% increase over the 2011 team cap of $120MM, which will be $121.2MM. If it shrinks, I will have to adjust my spreadsheets.

4) The players off contract in 2012 that I have identified thus far are: Diem, Foster, Garcon, Gonzales, Lacey, Mathis, Muir, Richard, Saturday, Tamme, Toudouze, Wayne, and Wheeler. In 2011, these guys represented $32.84MM to the 2011 cap.

5) The players on contract in 2012 (including a provision for Luck/RG3 and a #3 QB) represent $93.18MM to the 2012 cap.

6) If you assume that the players off contract in 2012 will play in 2012 for the same cap dollars as they played for in 2011, then we have a team total of $126.02MM, which is over the team cap for 2012 by about $4.82MM. Note here, that I have not even added the draftees except for QBs, or other FAs.

7) We know that the players off contract in 2012 will want more than what they played for in 2011, so you will have to restructure existing contracts, or decide to let some go, and replace them with cheaper FAs or draftees, or go without.

So, back to the topic...

With these points in mind, consider a couple of scenarios, independent of the Manning/Luck/QB3 situation (numbers according to Spotrac):

Gary Brackett, projected cap hit in 2012 is 7.4 million

Dallas Clark, projected cap hit in 2012 is 7.32 million

Joseph Addai, projected cap hit in 2012 is 4.76 million

Melvin Bullitt, projected cap hit in 2012 is 3.735 million

What are the cap hits for 2012 if we release or trade those players before the end of the 2011 league year? Total cap hit for those players is 23.2 million. I'm assuming that by releasing them, that would be reduced by about 60% (don't ask me wrong, I could be completely wrong, in which case, let me know). That would bring that combined cap number down to $14 million.

Assuming that reduces the cap hits for those respective players, coupled with restructuring Freeney's contract down to a $12 million cap hit in 2012, we'd probably bring the total cap number down to about $77 million.

Resign Mathis and Wayne/Garcon, Wheeler, Tamme, combined cap hit for 2012 at $20 million (considering accelerated cap hits in later years for all contracts). Let the others walk (maybe resign Brayton and Anderson, especially if we're going with a hybrid defense). Sign draft picks, assuming current slots, at combined $8 million cap hit. Cap stands at $105 million, without releasing or restructuring Manning. If you release Manning, that cap hit goes down to $98 million.

Let me know if my numbers are wrong anywhere. I'm an amateur at this.

But even if I'm off a little bit, we're looking at $10-15 million in cap space, right? This is why I say the Manning/Luck issue isn't about cap space. It's not ideal, but it's doable. It may be about real world money, absolutely, because that's $64 million Irsay could save by not paying Manning the bonus. And if there are long-term doubts about his ability to play at a high level, then it's reckless to pick the option up.

[BmoreColt]

Pardon me, but is the pot calling the kettle black?

[UndecidedFrog]

So, back to the topic...

With these points in mind, consider a couple of scenarios, independent of the Manning/Luck/QB3 situation (numbers according to Spotrac):

Gary Brackett, projected cap hit in 2012 is 7.4 million

Dallas Clark, projected cap hit in 2012 is 7.32 million

Joseph Addai, projected cap hit in 2012 is 4.76 million

Melvin Bullitt, projected cap hit in 2012 is 3.735 million

What are the cap hits for 2012 if we release or trade those players before the end of the 2011 league year? Total cap hit for those players is 23.2 million. I'm assuming that by releasing them, that would be reduced by about 60% (don't ask me wrong, I could be completely wrong, in which case, let me know). That would bring that combined cap number down to $14 million.

I think it is actually worse than you think.

I think you already paid these players for their services in LY 2011. Any release now and between March 13, 2012, I think will count towards savings in the 2012 cap projection, as long as you release them before you pay them for the 2012 season.

The release of these players will result in:

Brackett cap hit will be $7.2MM,

Clark cap hit will be $5.58

Addai cap hit will be $3.72

Bullitt cap hit will be $2.67

Total cap hit $19.17 in 2012

If you release these players prior to the 2012, you save their annual base salary, but you get their related cap hits from the acceleration (from the future years) of their signing bonuses.

Saved 2012 cap hit = 23.215

Accelerated pro-rated portions of signing and other bonuses = $19.17

Resulting net savings in 2012 cap space = $4.045

Peanuts. Now you have to replace these positions.....which will add to the cap hit.

Before I even attempt to address the remainder of your post, I think we need to understand this acceleration process.

Example:

Addai:

Current contract:3 years for 2011, 2012, 2013.

Signing Bonus: $5.58, and for cap purposes, this is evenly pro-rated throughout the contract years (3), or (5.58/3)= 1.86 per year

Base Salary: $2.45 for 2011; $2.9 for 2012; $3.07 for 2013.

Therefore the projected cap hits to 2011 is 4.31; to 2012 is 4.76; to 2013 is 4.93

Cutting him before 2012, will result in the eliminating his projected cap hit for 2012 of $4.76, but will accelerate the unamortized portions of his pro-rated signing bonus= 2 x 1.86 = 3.72

Net effect to the 2012 cap projection is a savings of $1.04

Another Example:

Brackett

Current contract:5 years for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014.

Signing Bonus: $12, and for cap purposes, this is evenly pro-rated throughout the contract years (5), or (12/5)= 2.4 per year

Base Salary: $0.8 for 2010; $2.0 for 2011; $5.0 for 2012; $6.6 for 2013 and $6.6 for 2014.

Therefore the projected cap hits to 2010 is 3.2; to 2011 is 4.4; to 2012 is 7.4; to 2013 is 9.0; and to 2014 is 9.0.

Cutting him before 2012, will result in the eliminating his projected cap hit for 2012 of $7.4, but will accelerate the unamortized portions of his pro-rated signing bonus= 3 x 2.4 = 7.2

Net effect to the 2012 cap projection is a savings of $0.2

Once you understand this effect, we can continue.

[Superman]

I think it is actually worse than you think.

I think you already paid these players for their services in LY 2011. Any release now and between March 13, 2012, I think will count towards savings in the 2012 cap projection, as long as you release them before you pay them for the 2012 season.

The release of these players will result in:

Brackett cap hit will be $7.2MM,

Clark cap hit will be $5.58

Addai cap hit will be $3.72

Bullitt cap hit will be $2.67

Total cap hit $19.17 in 2012

If you release these players prior to the 2012, you save their annual base salary, but you get their related cap hits from the acceleration (from the future years) of their signing bonuses.

Saved 2012 cap hit = 23.215

Accelerated pro-rated portions of signing and other bonuses = $19.17

Resulting net savings in 2012 cap space = $4.045

Peanuts. Now you have to replace these positions.....which will add to the cap hit.

Before I even attempt to address the remainder of your post, I think we need to understand this acceleration process.

Example:

Addai:

Current contract:3 years for 2011, 2012, 2013.

Signing Bonus: $5.58, and for cap purposes, this is evenly pro-rated throughout the contract years (3), or (5.58/3)= 1.86 per year

Base Salary: $2.45 for 2011; $2.9 for 2012; $3.07 for 2013.

Therefore the projected cap hits to 2011 is 4.31; to 2012 is 4.76; to 2013 is 4.93

Cutting him before 2012, will result in the eliminating his projected cap hit for 2012 of $4.76, but will accelerate the unamortized portions of his pro-rated signing bonus= 2 x 1.86 = 3.72

Net effect to the 2012 cap projection is a savings of $1.04

Another Example:

Brackett

Current contract:5 years for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014.

Signing Bonus: $12, and for cap purposes, this is evenly pro-rated throughout the contract years (5), or (12/5)= 2.4 per year

Base Salary: $0.8 for 2010; $2.0 for 2011; $5.0 for 2012; $6.6 for 2013 and $6.6 for 2014.

Therefore the projected cap hits to 2010 is 3.2; to 2011 is 4.4; to 2012 is 7.4; to 2013 is 9.0; and to 2014 is 9.0.

Cutting him before 2012, will result in the eliminating his projected cap hit for 2012 of $7.4, but will accelerate the unamortized portions of his pro-rated signing bonus= 3 x 2.4 = 7.2

Net effect to the 2012 cap projection is a savings of $0.2

Once you understand this effect, we can continue.

Anyone ever told you you can be a little condescending? Not trying to join the mob that seems to be jumping on you. Just sayin'...

I wasn't sure exactly how the accelerations would work for the 2012 cap, but it does save the team money. If you estimate about $4 million, according to your numbers, that's cap money. Not the $9 million I was thinking, just about half of that. Still worth it, for players that haven't contributed in two years. You don't have to replace them; they've already been replaced.

And don't get me wrong, I appreciate the contributions of all those players. Including Bullitt, who was never really all that good. But without his quick closing and tackle in the Pats game in 2009, we lose. That game meant a lot, historically speaking, to the franchise (broke the Pats record of consecutive regular season wins, keep the undefeated season alive, etc.) But it's time to move on. Even if we keep Bullitt, he's not the answer at safety, and it's absurd to pay him almost 4 million. And he's been hurt the past two years, just like the other three. Release/trade Clark, keep Tamme. And I love Clark, but not for 7.4 million. Same with Brackett and Addai. I think we overpaid to keep both of them, and neither has played particularly well in the past one or two years.

If you make those decisions, the payroll goes down to $89 million in 2012. That's before you extend Freeney, or make a decision on Manning. And of course, that all has to be done before the new league year begins, in order to split the acceleration between the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

[UndecidedFrog]

Anyone ever told you you can be a little condescending? Not trying to join the mob that seems to be jumping on you. Just sayin'...

I wasn't sure exactly how the accelerations would work for the 2012 cap, but it does save the team money. If you estimate about $4 million, according to your numbers, that's cap money. Not the $9 million I was thinking, just about half of that. Still worth it, for players that haven't contributed in two years. You don't have to replace them; they've already been replaced.

And don't get me wrong, I appreciate the contributions of all those players. Including Bullitt, who was never really all that good. But without his quick closing and tackle in the Pats game in 2009, we lose. That game meant a lot, historically speaking, to the franchise (broke the Pats record of consecutive regular season wins, keep the undefeated season alive, etc.) But it's time to move on. Even if we keep Bullitt, he's not the answer at safety, and it's absurd to pay him almost 4 million. And he's been hurt the past two years, just like the other three. Release/trade Clark, keep Tamme. And I love Clark, but not for 7.4 million. Same with Brackett and Addai. I think we overpaid to keep both of them, and neither has played particularly well in the past one or two years.

If you make those decisions, the payroll goes down to $89 million in 2012. That's before you extend Freeney, or make a decision on Manning. And of course, that all has to be done before the new league year begins, in order to split the acceleration between the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Sorry, didn't mean to be condescending.

I'm trying to communicate a pretty complex idea within the constraints of this message board.

It is frustrating.

[UndecidedFrog]

I am having a hard time getting all the contract information for all the players on the roster.

Thus far I only have 47 of the 70+ odd players, and all of the big name players.

I would rather not assume the remainder gets either rookie or vet minimums.

So given what I have now, yes, if you release those players, you are now down to $93.18 - $4.045 = 89.135.

This is before counting the rest of the roster of smaller names I don't have contract information for, and the draftees you want to sign (except Luck/RG3 and QB3), and FAs,

I've added 2 more names to those players that do not have contracts for 2012, but still are on the 2011 roster.

Anderson, Brayton, Diem, Foster, Garcon, Gonzales, Lacey, Mathis, Muir, Richard, Saturday, Tamme, Toudouze, Wayne, and Wheeler. These guys now accounted for $35MM to the 2011 cap.

[Superman]

Sorry, didn't mean to be condescending.

I'm trying to communicate a pretty complex idea within the constraints of this message board.

It is frustrating.

And you have to repeat yourself a thousand times to people who refuse to acknowledge what you're trying to communicate. I understand.

I'm not trying to be dense. I have a pretty good grasp of the way it works, I'm just not aware of all the different functions of the salary cap and how it all works in every situation. I thought I was overestimating at 60% as a blanket figure.

Even still, there's savings to be had for players that haven't contributed at a high level in the last two seasons.

[UndecidedFrog]

And you have to repeat yourself a thousand times to people who refuse to acknowledge what you're trying to communicate. I understand.

I'm not trying to be dense. I have a pretty good grasp of the way it works, I'm just not aware of all the different functions of the salary cap and how it all works in every situation. I thought I was overestimating at 60% as a blanket figure.

Even still, there's savings to be had for players that haven't contributed at a high level in the last two seasons.

In general there are greater savings to be had in cutting a player in the last year of a player's contract (less unamortized accleration of prorated bonuses to offset).

Ideally, of course, is not to have to cut at all, but simply let it expire, and die naturally, like Collins, and Orlovsky.

The problem with trying to get a blanket % figure to apply across the board is that not all players are at the same place in their contracts. Some have significant tails (unamortized prorated bonuses) to them like Brackett, and others like Painter, don't.

Yes, it is complex. In the meantime I am attempting to get the contract details of these new FAs the team has just signed from the CFL. and balancing them out with those announcements of who has been cut.

It would be much easier if I worked in the Colts' FO.

[Superman]

In general there are greater savings to be had in cutting a player in the last year of a player's contract (less unamortized accleration of prorated bonuses to offset).

Ideally, of course, is not to have to cut at all, but simply let it expire, and die naturally, like Collins, and Orlovsky.

The problem with trying to get a blanket % figure to apply across the board is that not all players are at the same place in their contracts. Some have significant tails (unamortized prorated bonuses) to them like Brackett, and others like Painter, don't.

Right. I wasn't in the mood to figure out all the numbers individually, especially since I would have had to make sure I was doing the calculations right (I'd still be doing it now). Just took a random number, hoping it was close. I figured $10-15 million of cap space, given the other assumptions for re-signing free agents. I was off by $5 million, so it's closer to 10 than 15.

Yes, it is complex. In the meantime I am attempting to get the contract details of these new FAs the team has just signed from the CFL. and balancing them out with those announcements of who has been cut.

It would be much easier if I worked in the Colts' FO.

I'm not really concerned with the FAs the team has signed. Those are all futures contracts, right? So they are only applicable to the 2012 payroll, and I'm sure they're not guaranteed. Most of the players signed in a period like this don't make the final 53. They're just camp bodies, and are all easily absorbed under the cap.

[nothing0]

Once you understand this effect, we can continue.

I apprieciate all of the good information you've provided. Would you comment on Freeney's contract? What would happen to his remaining 19mil (or so) if he was released or resigned?

[UndecidedFrog]

I apprieciate all of the good information you've provided. Would you comment on Freeney's contract? What would happen to his remaining 19mil (or so) if he was released or resigned?

Freeney is entering the last year (2012) of his 6-year contract.

In terms of real cash, he has received bonuses of $27.5MM on top of his annual salary. His annual salary for 2012 will be $14.035MM.

Now, in terms of cap dollars, the bonuses are pro-rated over the contract period (6-years) as follows:

Signing bonus ($15/6) = $2.5 per year, every year for 6 years.

Miscl. bonus ($12.5/5, since these bonuses started in his 2nd contract year) = $2.5 per year, starting 2nd contract year for 5 years.

Salary:

2007: $0.75

2008: $0.75

2009: $6.22

2010: $8.825

2011: $11.42

2012: $14.035

Currently, Freeney's cap space hit for 2012 is projected to be $19.035MM.

If you cut him now, you will not have to pay him his annual salary, and theoretically save $14.035MM in projected 2012 cap space, but you must accelerate the bonus prorations of $2.5 (signing bonus) and $2.5 (miscl. bonus) that will offset that savings.

This nets out to be a savings to the cap space of $9.035MM.

So, your choices are:

1) Keep Freeney in his last contract year and take the $19.035 cap space hit.

2) Cut Freeney now, and take a $5 cap space hit.

3) Renegotiate and restructure a new contract with Freeney that will change all this. I cannot really comment on this, since it has many variables of which I am unsure.

a) What Freeney will accept. He is currently 31 years old. He may want another front-loaded contract (like the current one)

b) What is the targeted cap space structure management wants with this exercise for 2012 and beyond

c) How much does management think they need Freeney as compared to the next best alternative (NBA), and what the NBA may hit the cap in comparison.

[ColtsBlueFL]

There may be really annoying and dumb at times, but it wouldn't be smart to have Peyton Manning on the team and draft Andrew Luck. That would be somewhere around $23 million dollars tied up in the quarterback position I think. Money can be spent in a better way than putting $5+ million dollars into the backup quarterback position if we keep Peyton Manning, which I think we definitely should.

I totally disagree with your position. If Peyton should suffer injury again in any form, we are back to what we just went through... with no hope, just agony.. And if a lesser name second tier backup is good enough to win games for us (which they won't be), Luck should have a great setup to learn his Frosh year. And if you have a backup good enough to be next man up should Peyton get injured, then he will likely cost as well, but doesn't have Luck's future upside.

[braveheartcolt]

I totally disagree with your position. If Peyton should suffer injury again in any form, we are back to what we just went through... with no hope, just agony.. And if a lesser name second tier backup is good enough to win games for us (which they won't be), Luck should have a great setup to learn his Frosh year. And if you have a backup good enough to be next man up should Peyton get injured, then he will likely cost as well, but doesn't have Luck's future upside.

And Manning will not be around for much longer. Short term gain even if (big if) Peyton is 100% healthy. You really do need to plan ahead...

[Ramblinwreck7]

I totally disagree with your position. If Peyton should suffer injury again in any form, we are back to what we just went through... with no hope, just agony.. And if a lesser name second tier backup is good enough to win games for us (which they won't be), Luck should have a great setup to learn his Frosh year. And if you have a backup good enough to be next man up should Peyton get injured, then he will likely cost as well, but doesn't have Luck's future upside.

You people and your what if questions...

What if Andrew Luck wants to pursue a career in professional sand volleyball?

[Ramblinwreck7]

And Manning will not be around for much longer. Short term gain even if (big if) Peyton is 100% healthy. You really do need to plan ahead...

No, it's a short term big loss.

[Larry Horseman]

Currently, Freeney's cap space hit for 2012 is projected to be $19.035MM.

If you cut him now, you will not have to pay him his annual salary, and theoretically save $14.035MM in projected 2012 cap space, but you must accelerate the bonus prorations of $2.5 (signing bonus) and $2.5 (miscl. bonus) that will offset that savings.

This nets out to be a savings to the cap space of $9.035MM.

Wouldn't it be a savings of $14 million in actual cap if Freeney is cut between the start of the 2012 league year and before June 1? If DFree is on the team, he has a cap hit of $19 mill. If he is cut, he has a cap hit of $5 mill. There is nothing to accelerate from future caps since it is the last year of his contract...all that is left out of his various guaranteed bonus is $5 million. Freeney's cap hit absolutely ranges from $19 million to $5 million. It makes no sense why the $5 m would then be subtracted from the $14 m savings (base salary) to figure net savings.

[ColtsBlueFL]

You people and your what if questions...

What if Andrew Luck wants to pursue a career in professional sand volleyball?

We fans lived what if last year. No more. This year is a big ?? Do not want to do it again. I want an exciting backup that is young has has incredible upside, not guaranteed mediocrity like last year.

Judging from your position, you don't have a need for automobile insurance, nor homeowners insurance. Or are you just a wreckless gambler with other peoples money/businesses?

[UndecidedFrog]

Wouldn't it be a savings of $14 million in actual cap if Freeney is cut between the start of the 2012 league year and before June 1? If DFree is on the team, he has a cap hit of $19 mill. If he is cut, he has a cap hit of $5 mill. There is nothing to accelerate from future caps since it is the last year of his contract...all that is left out of his various guaranteed bonus is $5 million. Freeney's cap hit absolutely ranges from $19 million to $5 million. It makes no sense why the $5 m would then be subtracted from the $14 m savings (base salary) to figure net savings.

Sorry, I misspoke. You are correct, the savings will be $14.035MM.

We are not yet in LY 2012.

If we cut him before becoming obligated to pay his salary for LY 2012, the Colts can expect a salary cap hit for 2012 to be $5 (the unamortized portions of his bonuses).

If we keep him and become obligated to pay his salary for LY 2012, the Colts can expect a salary cap hit for 2012 to be $19.035.

The difference between these 2 scenarios is $14.035, a savings off the projected cap for 2012.