"sources" Manning Is Not Progressing/more Than Likely Retire (Merge)

[Fx Stryker]

What they were possibly negotiating last off-season has no bearing on what they have now.

The reality of the situation is the contract they have in effect now.

If a renegotation of this contract is to be made such that the Colts will not suffer unduly due to the cap hit the option bonus represents, Peyton will have to agree to accept about half of the going-forward payments that exist in the current contract.

It is a difference worth about $32MM over the same contractual term.

Okay? I'm not talking about now or what they have now. You can keep pushing the current situation, but it holds nothing against what I am saying. I'm only stating that he had no problem with the minimum of what he could have had. ESPN said 16 million last year, and Peyton had no problem with that. He said somewhere a long the lines I'll take what they give me, I just want to play.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Okay? I'm not talking about now or what they have now. You can keep pushing the current situation, but it holds nothing against what I am saying. I'm only stating that he had no problem with the minimum of what he could have had. ESPN said 16 million last year, and Peyton had no problem with that. He said somewhere a long the lines I'll take what they give me, I just want to play.

If ESPN said that, they were wrong.

[wercolts]

two sources are saying after talking to nfl doctors that since he started throwin in december he has not shown improvement in his velocity. his nerves in his arm are just not getting any better. heres the story

http://msn.foxsports...ay-again-013012

I'm confused here. Is it the 2 sources that have seen him throwing or the NFL doctors, or are the doctors the sources. My guess is very very few people are privy to Peyton Manning workouts in the off season, especially this one. A credible source would be someone physically involved in the rehab and workouts, still waiting for that source to appear.

[wercolts]

"

The Yahoo! story also quoted two doctors with experience in spinal fusion surgery who said it could take up to one year before Manning will even know if he can return."

That puts it just before the season starts. Irsay will have to place a bet on it in March. Betting against Peyton is tough to do.

[Restored]

"

The Yahoo! story also quoted two doctors with experience in spinal fusion surgery who said it could take up to one year before Manning will even know if he can return."

That puts it just before the season starts. Irsay will have to place a bet on it in March. Betting against Peyton is tough to do.

I'd pay it. Then if hes not ready by September, he retires.

[Scipio]

Your scenario will require Peyton to agree to about a 50% discount on the payments going forward from his existing contract.

I think it all will come down to 1) If Manning still believes he can play 2) How little $ will he take to stay with the Colts

So, yes, I think there is room for a 50% discount on him. He very likely is not as concerned about the money anymore. If anything his agent will be the hurdle.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I'd pay it. Then if hes not ready by September, he retires.

So who all do you cut(creating an even larger cap hit/mess) to accommodate Manning's 38.4 cap hit at that point.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I think it all will come down to 1) If Manning still believes he can play 2) How little $ will he take to stay with the Colts

So, yes, I think there is room for a 50% discount on him. He very likely is not as concerned about the money anymore. If anything his agent will be the hurdle.

The CBA/Salary cap/current contract is the biggest hurdle.

[Scipio]

The CBA/Salary cap/current contract is the biggest hurdle.

Well I was playing off of my previous post where he would be cut and then a new contract would come into effect after the new NFL year starts.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Well I was playing off of my previous post where he would be cut and then a new contract would come into effect after the new NFL year starts.

Oh okay.. didn't see that part. It is a possibility... Time will tell.

[Restored]

So who all do you cut(creating an even larger cap hit/mess) to accommodate Manning's 38.4 cap hit at that point.

3

Easy.

Brackett, Addai, Bullit. Maybe a few others. And no, Manning's cap hit wouldn't be 38.4 million. Check your figures.

[jskinnz]

I'd pay it. Then if hes not ready by September, he retires.

That shows absolutely no business accumen whatsoever.

[FireJimCaldwell]

3

Easy.

Brackett, Addai, Bullit. Maybe a few others. And no, Manning's cap hit wouldn't be 38.4 million. Check your figures.

So what would it be? This ought to be interesting.

Not a ton of savings in those cuts.

[The Fish]

3

Easy.

Brackett, Addai, Bullit. Maybe a few others. And no, Manning's cap hit wouldn't be 38.4 million. Check your figures.

You'd gut good vets for Manning with a bum arm, glad your not making the final call, that's crazy.

[ViriLudant]

when Brady was out for the year, were there talks of him being cut? being traded? that he is done?

thank you! goodbye!

So you're now comparing a career-threatening neck injury/nerve regeneration issue with a torn ACL?

Really?

[Restored]

You'd gut good vets for Manning with a bum arm, glad your not making the final call, that's crazy.

Good vets??

Brackett was hurt this past year and has showed how he could easily be replaced (Angerer).

Addai has shown decreased production while contniuing to be injury-riddled. Donald Brown is better.

Bullit too is overrated and injury-prone. Now while that could of been because of the type of defense we played in having him come in the box to stuff the run, my point remains true.

That shows absolutely no business accumen whatsoever.

Actually it does. The bonus doesn't go towards the cap and if theres a chance Manning can be healthy by traning camp/start of the year, you'd be hard pressed to not do it.

So what would it be? This ought to be interesting.

Not a ton of savings in those cuts.

I'm not sure how much we would save in cutting but I know for sure Brackett is due quite an amount of money this year. And quite honestly, I don't feel like having to post the Manning figures for you. You should be able to find them as I see you have no problem posting in every thread. You can find it. I know for a FACT however that his cap hit this year wouldn't be 38.4 million. Have no clue where you are getting that figure from.

[UndecidedFrog]

3

Easy.

Brackett, Addai, Bullit. Maybe a few others. And no, Manning's cap hit wouldn't be 38.4 million. Check your figures.

Firejim's number is correct.

If the Colts pay Peyton the $28MM in March, and Peyton retires soon after without playing in 2012, his salary cap hit will be $38.4MM.

[UndecidedFrog]

Actually it does. The bonus doesn't go towards the cap and if theres a chance Manning can be healthy by traning camp/start of the year, you'd be hard pressed to not do it.

I'm not sure how much we would save in cutting but I know for sure Brackett is due quite an amount of money this year. And quite honestly, I don't feel like having to post the Manning figures for you. You should be able to find them as I see you have no problem posting in every thread. You can find it. I know for a FACT however that his cap hit this year wouldn't be 38.4 million. Have no clue where you are getting that figure from.

You are mistaken. The bonuses do figure into the salary cap. They are pro-rated over the term of the contract. However, if the player does not play through the contract and is released, or retires before, all those pro-rated portions accelerate to the time when he is cut/retires.

Firejim's number is correct. If Peyton retires soon after the $28MM bonus is paid in March, the salary cap hit will be $38.4:

Accelerated portions of the pro-rated $20 signing bonus paid in 2011: (20/5=4) and (4x4years remaining on contract term) = 16

Accelerated portions of the pro-rated $28 option bonus paid in 2012 (28/5= 5.6) and (5.6x 4 years remaining on contract term) = 22.4

Total = 38.4

[FireJimCaldwell]

I'm not sure how much we would save in cutting but I know for sure Brackett is due quite an amount of money this year. And quite honestly, I don't feel like having to post the Manning figures for you. You should be able to find them as I see you have no problem posting in every thread. You can find it. I know for a FACT however that his cap hit this year wouldn't be 38.4 million. Have no clue where you are getting that figure from.

You're the one making the claim it's inaccurate. There is only one way it's lower and that is if he's cut after 6/1, and that will make it a 19.2 hit this year and a 19.2 hit next year, which are both absurd under the current cap and next years cap, and still total 38.4 million.

So again what are the figures?

[FireJimCaldwell]

Actually it does. The bonus doesn't go towards the cap and if theres a chance Manning can be healthy by traning camp/start of the year, you'd be hard pressed to not do it.

I missed this brilliant comment the first time. Wow.. just wow. No I know why your comment was dead wrong.

OH and just a FYI

Gary Brackett
7,400,000 2012 Cap hit if playing
7,200,000 2012 Dead Cap Space if cut pre 6/1
200,000 2012 Savings

If  Bracket is cut after 6/1, it's a 3.6 cap hit in 2012, and  3.6 cap hit in 2013.
So Savings 3.8 at that point for 2012.

Addai
4,760,000 2012 Cap hit if playing
3,720,000 2012 Dead Cap space if cut Pre 6/1
1,040,000 2012 Savings Cut Pre 6/1
1,860,000 2012 Dead Cap space if cut Post 6/1
1,860,000 2013 Dead Cap space if cut Post 6/1
2,900,000 2012 Savings if cut Post 6/1

[jskinnz]

Good vets??

Brackett was hurt this past year and has showed how he could easily be replaced (Angerer).

Addai has shown decreased production while contniuing to be injury-riddled. Donald Brown is better.

Bullit too is overrated and injury-prone. Now while that could of been because of the type of defense we played in having him come in the box to stuff the run, my point remains true.

Actually it does. The bonus doesn't go towards the cap and if theres a chance Manning can be healthy by traning camp/start of the year, you'd be hard pressed to not do it.

I'm not sure how much we would save in cutting but I know for sure Brackett is due quite an amount of money this year. And quite honestly, I don't feel like having to post the Manning figures for you. You should be able to find them as I see you have no problem posting in every thread. You can find it. I know for a FACT however that his cap hit this year wouldn't be 38.4 million. Have no clue where you are getting that figure from.

I am afraid your career as an NFL general manager is over well before it really even got started.

The bonus absolutely counts towards the cap and if the Colts out Manning cannot play AFTER paying the bonus, it gets accelerated into the 2012 cap the result of which would be to basically gut the team.

Back to my orginal point - paying the bonus without knowing full well that Manning is healthy is completely crazy. That will positively not happen.

[Restored]

I am afraid your career as an NFL general manager is over well before it really even got started.

The bonus absolutely counts towards the cap and if the Colts out Manning cannot play AFTER paying the bonus, it gets accelerated into the 2012 cap the result of which would be to basically gut the team.

Back to my orginal point - paying the bonus without knowing full well that Manning is healthy is completely crazy. That will positively not happen.

You are wrong in that counts toward the cap. It only counts in the situation that Manning retires or is cut AFTER the bonus is due.

Manning's cap hit is projected to be 17 million in 2012 if the bonus is payed and he plays. So no, the bonus doesn't count against the cap either way Matt Millen.

http://blogs.indystar.com/coltsinsider/2012/01/26/were-still-talking-about-peyton-manning-and-what-the-future-holds/

[FireJimCaldwell]

You are wrong in that counts toward the cap. It only counts in the situation that Manning retires or is cut AFTER the bonus is due.

Manning's cap hit is projected to be 17 million in 2012 if the bonus is payed and he plays. So no, the bonus doesn't count against the cap either way Matt Millen.

http://blogs.indysta...e-future-holds/

You couldn't be more wrong. The option bonus doesn't go against the cap if it is not paid, but in your scenario, if it is paid, it most certainly will count.

I'd pay it. Then if hes not ready by September, he retires.

That signifies paying it. thus making it a part of the equation. Making it a 19.2 hit this year and a 19.2 hit next year, again both absurd.

Try the two links in the first post of this thread on for size. All it can do is help.

http://forums.colts....to-keep-peyton/

[jskinnz]

You are wrong in that counts toward the cap. It only counts in the situation that Manning retires or is cut AFTER the bonus is due.

Manning's cap hit is projected to be 17 million in 2012 if the bonus is payed and he plays. So no, the bonus doesn't count against the cap either way Matt Millen.

http://blogs.indysta...e-future-holds/

I am going to type slow for you so you can follow along.

Your premise was to pay the bonus and if he is not healthy in September, Manning retires.

1) That scenario is not covered in what you linked to.

2) If that scenario were to play out, the bonus that was paid along with his 2012 salary would count towards the cap. That would be the worst possible result for the Colts and as said earlier by many, would result in being forced to gut the team.

You need to give up this line of thinking. It would be probably be a good idea to open up your mind and realize that you are in over your head in this argument and as such, I would be reading very carefully where the masses disagree with you and think to yourself, "uh, maybe it's me. Maybe my figures are off."

[UndecidedFrog]

You are wrong in that counts toward the cap. It only counts in the situation that Manning retires or is cut AFTER the bonus is due.

Manning's cap hit is projected to be 17 million in 2012 if the bonus is payed and he plays. So no, the bonus doesn't count against the cap either way Matt Millen.

http://blogs.indysta...e-future-holds/

Adam, you are very mistaken, and you are digging yourself deeper in the hole.

In your scenario, you have paid Peyton the $28 bonus on March 8 (when the bonus is due). You said so here:

I'd pay it. Then if hes not ready by September, he retires.

So according to your scenario, the cap hit will be $38.4MM for 2012, if he retires before June1

If he retires on September 1, this will be 2 hits of $19.2. One for 2012 and the other for 2013.

[Restored]

I am going to type slow for you so you can follow along.

Your premise was to pay the bonus and if he is not healthy in September, Manning retires.

1) That scenario is not covered in what you linked to.

2) If that scenario were to play out, the bonus that was paid along with his 2012 salary would count towards the cap. That would be the worst possible result for the Colts and as said earlier by many, would result in being forced to gut the team.

You need to give up this line of thinking. It would be probably be a good idea to open up your mind and realize that you are in over your head in this argument and as such, I would be reading very carefully where the masses disagree with you and think to yourself, "uh, maybe it's me. Maybe my figures are off."

In my equation, Manning WOULD be healthy. Please don't twist my words I was saying what would happen if hes not. I project Manning to be healthy. If the doctors come to Irsay and say Manning could be healthy by August and the stipulations of the deadline can be negotiated which is possible, you'd have to consider doing it. And no, if he is healthy, and the bonus is paid, his cap hit is only 17 million. I'm not saying what I believe to happen but what would happen in that scenario.

And once again Jim, Manning's cap hit is not 38.4 regardless of the bonus being paid either way. It can be that number but it isn't in both cases.

[FireJimCaldwell]

In my equation, Manning WOULD be healthy. Please don't twist my words. And no, if he is healthy, and the bonus is paid, his cap hit is only 17 million.

Yes that is right, but you also said him retiring in Sept, which would then create the 38.4 cap hit divided over this season and next.

[Restored]

Yes that is right, but you also said him retiring in Sept, which would then create the 38.4 cap hit divided over this season and next.

Correct. IF HES NOT HEALTHY. lrn2reed

[jskinnz]

Correct. IF HES NOT HEALTHY. lrn2reed

Dear Holy God...

This is head against the wall type stuff.

So you are paying him on March 8th not knowing he is healthy?

[UndecidedFrog]

Correct. IF HES NOT HEALTHY. lrn2reed

There is no need for the insult. Especially when you are at fault.

You said:

I'd pay it. Then if hes not ready by September, he retires.

I think we can all read this just fine.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I'd pay it. Then if hes not ready by September, he retires.

Correct. IF HES NOT HEALTHY. lrn2reed

I can "reed" just fine. You said you would pay it, and then if he's not ready in September he retires.. If those two things happen, it's 38.4. Half in 2012. Half in 2013..

[Restored]

Dear Holy God...

This is head against the wall type stuff.

So you are paying him on March 8th not knowing he is healthy?

If the doctors come to Irsay and say there is a strong possiblity he could be healthy by training camp/August but not on March 8th, its something I think Irsay would consider.

How dumb would Irsay look if he releases him then come late July/early August Manning regains his arm and he's fully healthy?

And apparently Manning's rehab is going fine according to himself

http://espn.go.com/n...timing-decision

Once again, what I believe to happen and what COULD happen are two different things. I believe that Irsay will pay the bonus, Manning comes back healthy and everything is sorted out accordingly.

[UndecidedFrog]

How dumb would Irsay look if he releases him then come late July/early August Manning regains his arm and he's fully healthy?

Not as dumb compared to where Irsay pays the bonus, and Peyton retires in September, eviscerating the team's salary cap and setting the franchise back for a few years.

[Restored]

Not as dumb compared to where Irsay pays the bonus, and Peyton retires in September, eviscerating the team's salary cap and setting the franchise back for a few years.

Or they could renegotiate his contract to minimize his cap hit before he retires. There have been shadier things done in the league. If both parties come to an agreement, changes can be made.

[UndecidedFrog]

Or they could renegotiate his contract to minimize his cap hit before he retires. There have been shadier things done in the league. If both parties come to an agreement, changes can be made.

Yes, renegotation may be an alternative.

However, what is the likelihood of Peyton and Condon wanting to move the option exercise date back even 1 month?

Strategically, it does not make sense for them to agree to this, because as another poster correctly identifies, that it is better to be a QB FA before the draft.

Also, what is the likelihood that Peyton and Condon will accept lower $$$ than the current contract to help out the Colts and their salary cap?

Firejim has even suggested what would be necessary to do this in another thread, and it represents about a 50% discount to the current contract payments going forward.

Even though renegotiation is a possiblity, it does not seem very probable.

[Restored]

Yes, renegotation may be an alternative.

However, what is the likelihood of Peyton and Condon wanting to move the option exercise date back even 1 month?

Strategically, it does not make sense for them to agree to this, because as another poster correctly identifies, that it is better to be a QB FA before the draft.

Because it plays into Peyton's favor. You don't think Peyton has saw the Brett Favre situation and see the tarnish its put on his career? While its better to be a FA QB before the draft, if Peyton's not healthy either way, why would a team want to sign an un-healthy 36 year old QB?

Also, what is the likelihood that Peyton and Condon will accept lower $$$ than the current contract to help out the Colts and their salary cap?

Firejim has even suggested what would be necessary to do this in another thread, and it represents about a 50% discount to the current contract payments going forward.

While Peyton hasn't accepted LOWER money, he has renegotiated his contract to make it put less of a dent in the cap while essentially recieveing the same amount of money.

Even though renegotiation is a possiblity, it does not seem very probable.

renegotiation is actually a possiblity and can happen with any player. Peyton is no different in this respect.

[UndecidedFrog]

While Peyton hasn't accepted LOWER money, he has renegotiated his contract to make it put less of a dent in the cap while essentially recieveing the same amount of money

Under the current rules that govern how to account for the salary cap, I see no way (unless it is by shifting some LTBE monies into ULTBE incentives) of renegotiating a contract for the same amount of money that would place any less of a total dent in the cap. The only thing restructuring a contract (for the same $$$) can do is to effect the timing of salary cap hits throughout the contract period. It can be front-loaded or back-loaded, or evenly distributed. However, the total cap will not change.

[doogansquest]

This whole thread should now be put to rest. The ESPN interview with the man himself disagrees with the enter premise of this thread.

[Restored]

Under the current rules that govern how to account for the salary cap, I see no way (unless it is by shifting some LTBE monies into ULTBE incentives) of renegotiating a contract for the same amount of money that would place any less of a total dent in the cap. The only thing restructuring a contract (for the same $$$) can do is to effect the timing of salary cap hits throughout the contract period. It can be front-loaded or back-loaded, or evenly distributed. However, the total cap will not change.

Say, for example, a player wants a seven-year, $60-million contract. Let's say that the owner decides to give that player an $11-million signing bonus, which is all paid out in the first year but gets factored into the cap as prorated over the course of the seven-year contract ($11-million / 7 years = $1.57-million per year).

Manning's base salary + the distribution of his bonus is what makes the 17 million. However, changing some of the base salary figures into incentives might be something different entirely however. That part I am not sure about.

[doogansquest]

Say, for example, a player wants a seven-year, $60-million contract. Let's say that the owner decides to give that player an $11-million signing bonus, which is all paid out in the first year but gets factored into the cap as prorated over the course of the seven-year contract ($11-million / 7 years = $1.57-million per year).

Manning's base salary + the distribution of his bonus is what makes the 17 million. However, changing some of the base salary figures into incentives might be something different entirely however. That part I am not sure about.

That's an interesting idea. Not sure what is possible. It seems every time we think we know, some financial genius finds a way around it all.

My guess is, Irsay and Manning + Condon will make it happen if they can.