Colts Fantasy Preview - Evan Silva

[lollygagger8]

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/55011/59/colts-fantasy-preview

 

  Colts Fantasy Preview

Wednesday, July 01, 2015

 

 

 

Colts Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 1st (661)

2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 17th (415)

2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 2nd (1,105)

2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 7th (5.9)

 

Check out the team-by-team fantasy preview schedule.

 

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Andrew Luck

RB: Frank Gore

WR: T.Y. Hilton

WR: Andre Johnson

TE: Dwayne Allen

TE: Coby Fleener

LT: Anthony Castonzo

LG: Hugh Thornton

C: Khaled Holmes

RG: Todd Herremans

RT: Jack Mewhort

Passing Game Outlook

Embracing Andrew Luck as his team centerpiece, Pep Hamilton's Colts offense jumped from 15th in the NFL in 2013 pass attempts to first in Hamilton's second year on the job. A ball-handling "usage machine," Luck finished last season third in pass attempts and fourth in quarterback runs. Luck was narrowly overtaken by Aaron Rodgers in fantasy scoring late in the year, but spent most of 2014 in the lead and provided his owners with a week-to-week edge. Still in the process of getting better, Luck turns 26 in September and is now surrounded by arguably the deepest pass-catcher corps in football. GM Ryan Grigson upgraded on Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks withAndre Johnson and first-round pick Phillip Dorsett, while T.Y. Hilton, 25, Donte Moncrief, 21, Dwayne Allen, 25, and Coby Fleener, 26, are at or not yet in their primes. I'm ranking Luck ahead of Rodgers as this year's premier fantasy signal caller.

I was down on T.Y. Hilton entering last year, and he proved one of my biggest "misses" of the 2014 season. Emerging as far and away Indianapolis' top receiver while Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks showed dead legs, Hilton ranked top 15 among NFL wideouts in targets and sixth in yards despite missing a game. Andrew Luck and Hilton have formed a Rodgers-Jordy-like bond, staying on the same page even when plays break down. Hilton's route running has sharpened, and he is capable of beating defenses at every level of the field. He's about as close to a "complete receiver" as a 5-foot-10, 183-pound wideout can get. Now entering his contract year, Hilton should be viewed as a high-floor, if low-end WR1 who will deliver his fair share of week-winning games. I think he's a safe bet to repeat last year's 130 targets.

Andre Johnson struggled to win against No. 1 corners amid poor quarterback play last year in Houston. Johnson's inefficiency was alarming at his age (34), ranking 38th among receivers in fantasy points despite seeing the fifth most targets. Signed to a three-year, $21 million deal by the Colts, Johnson has a great chance to turn in a few big-time years before he calls it quits playing with the best quarterback of his career in a high-volume offense where he'll get more chances against No. 2 and nickel corners. Departed Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks leave behind a whopping 184 targets, the vast majority of which will go to Johnson. There are signs of decline in Johnson's game, but not to the extent that he's someone to bet against in one of the most receiver-friendly situations the NFL has to offer. I like Johnson's chances of catching 90-plus balls this season and believe he's priced reasonably at his mid-fourth-round ADP.

Donte Moncrief only played 39% of the Colts' snaps as a third-round rookie. He did capitalize on his playing time, pacing the Indy receiver corps in catch rate (69.6%) and yards after catch per reception (6.7) while dropping just 2-of-49 targets. Moncrief seemed primed for year-two liftoff before Indianapolis signed Andre Johnson to play the X, and drafted Phillip Dorsett in the first round. Moncrief's playing time is a major concern, particularly on a team that often utilizes two-tight end sets. Not even assured the Colts' No. 3 receiver role over Dorsett, Moncrief is a talented young player who is likely going to keep us waiting. He offers little re-draft appeal, and may be someone to target in buy-low Dynasty trades halfway through this season. I think Moncrief would do well to catch 40 balls in 2015. One factor working in Moncrief's favor in his competition with Dorsett is an ability to play multiple receiver positions. Moncrief best projects as an X, but also saw action at slot and Z as a rookie.

Phillip Dorsett was a lid lifter at Miami (FL), averaging 17.6 career yards per catch with 17 TDs before running 4.33 at February's Combine. Dorsett is size deficient (5'10/185) but has sure hands, dropping just 3-of-73 targets as a college senior. Dorsett struggled on kick and punt returns at The U, and the Colts are going to want their first-round pick on the field in some capacity. That may mean Dorsett will end up as a staple in three-receiver sets, playing ahead of Donte Moncrief in 11 personnel. Indianapolis went three wide on 50% of its 2014 plays. Even in an efficient, high-volume passing attack, it's unlikely Dorsett or Moncrief will provide stable WR3 value this season, barring an injury to Johnson or Hilton. Dorsett best projects as Hilton's backup, while Moncrief will learn from Johnson and mix in behind him.

Dwayne Allen's blocking prowess may prevent him from becoming a high-volume receiver on the Colts, especially for as long as Indy's offensive line is a weakness. In-line TE Allen blocked on 51.5% of his 2014 snaps, compared to just 38.2% for catch-first teammate Coby Fleener. Although Allen finished top ten in per-game fantasy scoring among tight ends, he tied for 26th in targets. Beyond the top-shelf tier of Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett, and likely Travis Kelce this season, there is a large cluster of "touchdown-dependent" tight ends who really won't help you win in fantasy unless they hit pay dirt in a given week. Allen belongs in that cluster, but has an edge because he plays in an offense that generates so many scoring chances. And his quality blocking ensures Allen will stay on the field. Fantasy leaguers can't expect Allen to be a difference maker, but he can keep owners competitive at fantasy's weakest position. And you can get him in the 11th and 12th rounds.

The Colts' offseason influx of wideout talent hurts Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett's odds of becoming reliable 2015 fantasy assets. The player who may take the biggest hit, however, is Coby Fleener, whose playing time could experience a big downswing if the Colts introduce more three- and four-wideout sets at the expense of two-tight end packages. Even before the receiver upgrades, Fleener's outlook was threatened by the healthy return of Dwayne Allen. Fleener's 2014 counting stats (51-774-8) look solid on paper, but keep in mind Fleener recorded 43% of his catches, 51% of his yards, and 50% of his touchdowns in the five games where Allen either left early or was inactive. In Allen's healthy 11 games, Fleener's seasonal pace stats were 42-557-6. Fleener is a liability as both a run and pass blocker, giving OC Pep Hamilton plenty of reason to decrease his snaps in favor of Indy's more explosive wideouts. There are enough red flags here that Fleener won't be on any of my 2015 fantasy teams.

Running Game Outlook

Don't expect Frank Gore to be an offense-carrying workhorse on the pass-first Colts. While he should help a running game that was one of the worst in football last year, Gore's foremost value to Indianapolis will come as a pass protector, receiver, and occasional chain mover on the ground. The sheer play volume of Indy's offense will boost Gore's fantasy value; he goes from a San Francisco team that ranked 20th in offensive plays last season to a Colts team that ranked second. Gore also goes from a 49ers offense that ranked 25th in points scored to an Indy offense that ranked sixth. In addition to spiked TD opportunities, Gore's receiving usage should get a boost; then-OC Greg Roman's Niners ranked 31st in targets allocated to running backs, 39% of which went to fullback Bruce Miller. Last year's Colts were 12th in running back targets, throwing the ball to running backs 50 more times than the Niners. Gore is 32 years old now, but his 2014 yards-per-carry average (4.34) was his second best in the last five years, suggesting Gore has gas in the tank. I expect Gore to be a high-floor, high-end RB2 this year who will get enough easy touchdown chances to sprinkle in some difference-making weeks.

The Colts' No. 2 tailback battle will be worth monitoring closely. Not only is Frank Gore 32, but Indy has incorporated multiple backs since Pep Hamilton took over as offensive playcaller two years ago. Gore should be closer to a true feature runner than Trent Richardson, Donald Brown, and Ahmad Bradshaw were, but there is still a chance a second back could emerge with some standalone value. The favorite entering camp is Dan Herron, who is a pedestrian talent but offers plus versatility, making him a solid fit on a pass-oriented team. Herron will be pushed by sixth-round pick Josh Robinson, a physical tackle breaker who was very efficient in the SEC (6.18 YPC) but is short on athleticism. 25-year-old Vick Ballard is the No. 2 back underdog. He has missed all but one game the past two seasons, enduring ACL and Achilles' tears. I'd put my money on Herron winning this competition, but am keeping a close eye on Robinson.

Vegas Win Total

The Colts' Vegas Win Total is 10.5. Indianapolis' offense is talented enough to control games, and playing in the NFL's worst division certainly works in the Colts' favor. The smartest bet is probably the over on Indy's win total, although you'll obviously be in trouble if Andrew Luck gets hurt. Luck's backup is dead-armed Matt Hasselbeck, who turns 40 in September. Chuck Pagano's defense has some playmaking ability, but is ultimately a rag-tag group that will look to manufacture pass rush and figures to remain vulnerable to power running games. This is a somewhat fragile roster that depends on its quarterback as much or more than any team in football, but should win 11 and could push for 12 or even 13 victories if Luck stays healthy.

 

 

 

 

[TKnight24]

12-4 this year

[Narcosys]

Ouch... Dead armed Matt Hasselback.

[southwest1]

I was about to complement you on your write up Lollygagger before I clicked on your link & realized you simply cut & pasted it in this thread. Still a good read though. Thanks man.