Doubling Down on Trading Down.....

[NewColtsFan]

Since it's no longer April 1st,  I'll toss this out now so you know it's not my idea of an April fools joke....

 

If we can't trade back to the top 8 of the 2nd round in one big trade....   I'm completely open to the idea of trading back in two trades...

 

Hypothetically,  trade back once with San Francisco,  either at 31 or 34....    then trade a 2nd time with a team that has targeted someone specific and wants to make a more modest trade up, but not all the way to 24 to get their guy...   The 2nd trade might take us back to roughly 42, give or take.  Maybe higher,  maybe a bit lower.  

 

I think we'd get all the extra picks we want,  plus still get a top-40 player that we'd likely have rated much higher than wherever we pick him.....

 

My instincts say Grigson is not done building this Monster,  and in this draft,  having only 3 picks in the first 5 rounds won't be nearly enough for him.    So, I think a trade down scenario is coming....

 

Just my view of things....

[dw49]

Since it's no longer April 1st,  I'll toss this out now so you know it's not my idea of an April fools joke....

 

If we can't trade back to the top 8 of the 2nd round in one big trade....   I'm completely open to the idea of trading back in two trades...

 

Hypothetically,  trade back once with San Francisco,  either at 31 or 34....    then trade a 2nd time with a team that has targeted someone specific and wants to make a more modest trade up, but not all the way to 24 to get their guy...   The 2nd trade might take us back to roughly 42, give or take.  Maybe higher,  maybe a bit lower.  

 

I think we'd get all the extra picks we want,  plus still get a top-40 player that we'd likely have rated much higher than wherever we pick him.....

 

My instincts say Grigson is not done building this Monster,  and in this draft,  having only 3 picks in the first 5 rounds won't be nearly enough for him.    So, I think a trade down scenario is coming....

 

Just my view of things....

 

 

 

Probably is going to depend on what he feels the values are. I don't think he'll trade down just for the sake of trading down as you kind of infer. If there is a player he feels has top 10 value at 24 and at the same time feels there is a big drop off in value in the middle of round two , he shouldn't make the move... right ? Plus even if his board dictates your scenario as a good move , you still need a team that wants a player bad enough at 24 to give you the value you want. I remember Polian wanting to trade down to 17-18 to draft Freeney and he didn't have a taker before something like pick 22 and he just decided to over draft Freeney rather than risk losing him. 

 

I do believe teams decide to trade down and just do it as you might be suggesting here . I'm just trying to apply some kind of logic as to why maybe we won't and maybe we shouldn't.  I've never had any real info as to what actually happnes in these war rooms.

[CoachLite]

The only reason to trade down is quantity over quality. At this point, I'd go for quality at 24 - Trufant, Rhodes, Cooper or BPA.

[NewColtsFan]

Probably is going to depend on what he feels the values are. I don't think he'll trade down just for the sake of trading down as you kind of infer. If there is a player he feels has top 10 value at 24 and at the same time feels there is a big drop off in value in the middle of round two , he shouldn't make the move... right ? Plus even if his board dictates your scenario as a good move , you still need a team that wants a player bad enough at 24 to give you the value you want. I remember Polian wanting to trade down to 17-18 to draft Freeney and he didn't have a taker before something like pick 22 and he just decided to over draft Freeney rather than risk losing him. 

 

I do believe teams decide to trade down and just do it as you might be suggesting here . I'm just trying to apply some kind of logic as to why maybe we won't and maybe we shouldn't.  I've never had any real info as to what actually happnes in these war rooms.

 

DW.....

 

So sorry....   didn't mean in any way to infer trading down just to trade down....   I think the reason to trade down is Grigson will end up with a pick of almost equal ability wherever he picks than he will by staying at 24.     So, by trading back, he got almost as good a player,  plus multiple picks.    That's my view....

 

But, I agree, if someone Grigson madly loves unexpectedly falls to the Colts at 24,   I think he'll say and take him, and I'd be fine with that.

 

I just don't see that happening.   (the top talent falling to 24 part)

 

I think this is a very strong draft in rounds 2-6,  so I think Grigson is going to want all the draft picks he can get his hands on....

 

Again,  just my hunch.....

[dw49]

DW.....

 

So sorry....   didn't mean in any way to infer trading down just to trade down....   I think the reason to trade down is Grigson will end up with a pick of almost equal ability wherever he picks than he will by staying at 24.     So, by trading back, he got almost as good a player,  plus multiple picks.    That's my view....

 

But, I agree, if someone Grigson madly loves unexpectedly falls to the Colts at 24,   I think he'll say and take him, and I'd be fine with that.

 

I just don't see that happening.   (the top talent falling to 24 part)

 

I think this is a very strong draft in rounds 2-6,  so I think Grigson is going to want all the draft picks he can get his hands on....

 

Again,  just my hunch.....

 

 

If you are correct that this is a strong draft in rounds 2-6 , then for sure the odds would favor it. 5 picks is indeed thin and if Grigson can find a partner when needed , no doubt very possible. Do you remember the draft that Polian kept trading down ? First move was great getting Sanders and then a real pile of poop.. Hartsock , Gardner and Pope.. although Hartsock ended up being a decent player later on.

[hoosierhawk]

Thought the same thing NCF. If he could get a high 2 and then maybe a 3 or high 4 for # 24 and then trade the high 2 for a lower 2 and a 3 or 4 we could conceivably end up with a late 2 and two additional 3s. Everything would have to fall right but could happen. If it did Grigs would be black balle the next time.

[HtownColt]

If your thinking about trading back with SF#31(which I doubt) this is more likely what your going to get.

No. 25: Denver → New England (D). Denver traded this selection to New England for their first (31st) and fourth round (126th) selections this year.[source 7]

Or something like this in 2011

New England Patriots trade the No. 28 pick to the New Orleans Saints for a second-round (No. 56) pick in the 2011 draft along with a first-round pick in the 2012 draft.

Or this:

Denver Broncos: Acquire pick No. 25 in 2010

Baltimore Ravens: Acquire picks No. 43, 70 and 114 in 2010

I say sit back and watch the players fall, still my choice is Datone Jones. At this point in April I feel like we are now looking for that impact player that's going to put us over the top. Not try and collect draft picks like we have multiple gaping holes

[NewColtsFan]

If your thinking about trading back with SF#31(which I doubt) this is more likely what your going to get.

No. 25: Denver → New England (D). Denver traded this selection to New England for their first (31st) and fourth round (126th) selections this year.[source 7]

Or something like this in 2011

New England Patriots trade the No. 28 pick to the New Orleans Saints for a second-round (No. 56) pick in the 2011 draft along with a first-round pick in the 2012 draft.

Or this:

Denver Broncos: Acquire pick No. 25 in 2010

Baltimore Ravens: Acquire picks No. 43, 70 and 114 in 2010

I say sit back and watch the players fall, still my choice is Datone Jones. At this point in April I feel like we are now looking for that impact player that's going to put us over the top. Not try and collect draft picks like we have multiple gaping holes

 

In your list....   the "or this" is actually a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 4th round pick.      I'd be over-the-moon thrilled if we got this!

 

If we're offered that for the 24, I hope we'd run as fast as we could to grab it!!!

[HtownColt]

In your list.... the "or this" is actually a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 4th round pick. I'd be over-the-moon thrilled if we got this!

If we're offered that for the 24, I hope we'd run as fast as we could to grab it!!!

I know but you drop all the way to #43 which is not to get ecstatic over. Draft strategy should be: Sit and watch the players fall right in your lap and make a choice that best fits your team which in my eyes is another impact playmaker in Datone Jones in an area of weakness which is interior pass rush. Outside rush means nothing if the QB has a clean pocket to step up into.

[Dustin]

The problem is that every team is trying to trade back.

[John Dee]

A lot of folks want to trade back, and I would not be against it really if any of these

Warmack

Cooper

Star L

Ogletree

T Austin  ........... are not there.  

 

So I looked up the draft pick value chart.

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

 

I think the Colts are in a good position to do something IF the Rams and or Vikings don't do it first.

 

I think the most likely spot for the action to start would be around pick 21 Bengals, it has a value of 800.   22 Rams 780,   23  Vikings 760,   and  24 Colts 740.

 

The QB's are losing value early in the draft.    Bills, Cardinals, Raiders, and Chiefs all signed QB's.    The Browns, Eagles, and Jets are potentials to draft one.   Suppose not one goes in the top 10 then who up to pick 21 might bite?   Tampa Bay ...  maybe, anyone else would be pulling a GB and drafting for the future.      Which would not be a bad thing.

 

If nothing happens with Cincy, Rams (2 picks), and Minny (2 picks) Then I can totally see Indy trying to make a trade and getting a 2nd and extra 3rd.  Or potentially more depending on team and draft position.

 

Teams wanting to trade into the top 20 pay through the nose.   

 

I would do it if "the studs" are all gone.   Studs meaning players they like.....