Are Colts going to the playoff for sure?

[tonychen]

Looks like one more win Colts lock a wildcard spot. The @KC game looks very much winnable on paper, but Colts are not very reliable on the road, and KC is never a nice place to play in. With a chance to upset a playoff team, Chiefs could also bring their best efforts.

 

Texans could rest their starters in the last game in Indy, as they win the tie-break against Broncos. That game looks like a better chance to get the win.

[cjwhiskers]

@KC is much more of a winnable game than Hou in Indy. Both game are winnable, but if I had to pick one it'd be @KC. KC is demoralized and doesn't have much to play for. In fact them winning games hurts them at this point with draft picks. I believe we will win our final two games and end 11-5.

[coltsfanatic24]

the jets are the only team that can knock us out because we loss to them. cincy and pit we cancel each other out this week when they play. if the jets loose tonight vs the titans were in.

[chad72]

Chiefs are playing for the 1st pick. No way will Brady Quinn jeopardize that.

 

Tied at 2-12 with the Jags, the Chiefs are 0-10 in the conference with both wins vs NFC South teams (Saints and Panthers). Jags are 2-8 in the conference, so the Chiefs have the best odds for the #1 pick.

 

Chiefs host the Colts, and then go to Denver. With the way they have played in the conference, no doubt in my mind the Colts win. Personally, if we dont have much to gain in the last game, let Drew Stanton play a half and keep our injured guys on the bench to give more rest. We dont have a bye week anyway if we do make it as a #5 seed.

 

If we are 10-5 and the Steelers beat the Bengals for both to go 8-7, one of the Steelers or Bengals can only go 9-7 and thus we can get some rest in the last Texans game.

[ColtStrong]

According to this site, http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/coltsstandings.html the colts only have a 2% chance of not making it.

[MarylandTerrapin]

@KC is much more of a winnable game than Hou in Indy. Both game are winnable, but if I had to pick one it'd be @KC. KC is demoralized and doesn't have much to play for. In fact them winning games hurts them at this point with draft picks. I believe we will win our final two games and end 11-5.

 

I think we take care of business against KC.  If Hou beats Min, then they get HFA and will probably rest their starters against us.  But if Min beats Hou, then Hou needs to beat Indy again for HFA.  You have to like how things are setting up - we're set up nicely to play at Balt in the WC round and the Pats will have to go to Den in the divisionals.

 

I would love Luck to get 3 TD passes in each of the final 2 games to tie Peyton's rookie mark - doubt it happens though.  No picks in the final 3 games would also be nice. 

[tonychen]

the jets are the only team that can knock us out because we loss to them. cincy and pit we cancel each other out this week when they play. if the jets loose tonight vs the titans were in.

 

Have a feeling Jets will win out. Better take care of business next week on our own side.

[SilentHill]

Have a feeling Jets will win out. Better take care of business next week on our own side.

No way, Mark Sanchez isn't good enough. They will lose to Tenn tonight and all this nonsense will be over.

[MarylandTerrapin]

I'd rather the Jets won tonight so we can clinch in KC on the football field...like it should be done. 

[tonychen]

Looked at the record, seems we will have exactly the same record as the Steelers if we lose out and they win out. But we won Browns and they could split 1-1 against Browns, does it win us the tie break?

[Archer]

First tie-breaker, I believe, is head-to-head.  The only one of these teams we played was the Jets, who killed us.  So, if we lose our last two and NYJ win their last 3, they will be ahead of us. 

 

Second tie-breaker is conference record.  If we lose our last two, we will be 6-6 in the conference.  Cincy is currently 5-5 in the conference, and Pittsburgh is 4-6.  If Cincy wins out, they will have a 10-6 record and a 7-5 conference record.  In the process, they would put Pittsburgh out of the picture (since the best they could be is 8-8).  If we end up with the same record as Cincy (there are two ways for this to happen), we will necessarily have the same conference record as them (we'll both be either 9-7 with a 6-6 AFC record or 10-6 with a 7-5 AFC record).  If Pittsburgh wins out, they will have a 9-7 record with a 6-6 conference record (same as Indy's worst case scenario).  If Baltimore loses out, they will be 9-7 with an 8-4 conference record and probably lose the division (and trumping us for the WC on conference record).

 

Third tie-breaker, I believe, is record vs. common opponents.  Based on my calculations, if we end up tied with Pittsburgh, we'll each have 3-2 records against common components.  So that'll go to the next tie-breaker, which I don't know what it is.  I calculate that if we lose out and Cincy ends up tied with us, we'll win on the common opponents (our record will be 3-2 and there's will be 2-3). 

 

So, bottom line is that if we lose out, only Cincinnati or Pittsburgh can pass us, but not both.  (If Pitt beats Cincy, Cincy can do no better than tie us at 9-7, and we'll win the third tie breaker.  If Cin beats Pitt, Pitt can end up with no better than an 8-8 record).  So, then the only question is: will NYJ win out and pass us too.  Of course, if we win in KC, it's all over and we're in.  All this is my own calculations, so there could be errors...

[chad72]

Looked at the record, seems we will have exactly the same record as the Steelers if we lose out and they win out. But we won Browns and they could split 1-1 against Browns, does it win us the tie break?

 

Tie-breaking rules below:

 

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

 

Second tie-break, if we lose out and Steelers win out, we will be tied at 6-6 for AFC record with potentially Bengals and Steelers all with an overall record of 9-7 (say)

 

Common games has to have a minimum of four. Strength of victory will be the combined record of all the teams the Steelers and Colts have beaten. Only the Packers' win has some relevance as a winning team. Steelers have beaten Ravens, Bengals, Giants, Redskins etc. all of whom have winning records right now and cannot finish worse than 8-8. Bengals have beaten the Giants and Redskins as well.

 

 

There is an interesting thing about 3 clubs being tied:

 

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

 

Can anyone explain the first rule above to me? Does that above rule mean that if the Bengals, Steelers and Colts end up at 9-7, do the Steelers and Colts prevail because they will be #2 in their divisions while the Bengals would be #3?

[MarylandTerrapin]

If Pitt, Cincy, & Indy go 9-7, then it would mean that Pitt swept Cincy and Pitt wins the division tiebreaker against Cincy - this takes precendent.  To get the 2nd WC, Indy & Cincy would both have a conf mark of 6-6 so it would go to common games.  Indy wins the tiebreaker over Cincy due to a better record in common games (4-1 vs 3-2). 

 

This all assumes the Jets don't win out and 9-7.  It's all a mute point anyway since we'll beat KC for win number 10.

[Phil J]

Colts are going to the * after the beatdown on the chiefs next week. Better be a complete game, cause right now we are not looking like a PO caliber team. I am excited for them that they made it, I just don't want to see an embarrassment in the first round.

[cmgww]

It is going to come down to the coin toss tiebreaker!!! Lol...can you ever imagine that happening? It is a lottery winning odds type scenario!

[chad72]

If Pitt, Cincy, & Indy go 9-7, then it would mean that Pitt swept Cincy and Pitt wins the division tiebreaker against Cincy - this takes precendent.  To get the 2nd WC, Indy & Cincy would both have a conf mark of 6-6 so it would go to common games.  Indy wins the tiebreaker over Cincy due to a better record in common games (4-1 vs 3-2). 

 

This all assumes the Jets don't win out and 9-7.  It's all a mute point anyway since we'll beat KC for win number 10.

 

Best concise explanation so far. You can thank the Browns for beating the Bengals if it comes to that.

[Coltswarriors]

I'd be totally shocked if we missed the playoffs.

I think we can win both of our final two games.

[chad72]

I'd be totally shocked if we missed the playoffs.

I think we can win both of our final two games.

 

We will beat the Chiefs. Have not lost 2 in a row, not going to start now.

[tonychen]

Colts are going to the * after the beatdown on the chiefs next week. Better be a complete game, cause right now we are not looking like a PO caliber team. I am excited for them that they made it, I just don't want to see an embarrassment in the first round.

 

Maybe we are not playoff caliber indeed but at least we have beaten most of the mediocre opponents so far. Just cannot stop thinking had we won the 1st meeting with the Jags we'd be relaxed now.

[HtownColt]

With a jets loss tonight we literally have a 99.9973% chance of making the playoffs..or just beat down the chiefs and your in

[NewEra]

yes....we are going to the playoffs!

[coltsfan_nyc]

Who cares what the other teams are doing, let's just beat the Chiefs, this is our primary objective!

[JustAColtsFan]

I would like to beat Houston straight up the last game.  We should have beat them yesterday - I know all of you think I am crazy.  We made some very uncharacteristic mental errors that cost us that game.  Houston is not as good as their record indicates.

 

The blocked punt and our fumble on the one yard line - right there is a 14 point swing that would have given us the game.  This was nothing that they did spectacularly well to cause.

 

Take away their score on the NON EXISTANT hit on a defensless reciever call on Davis when we had them stopped on 4th and long and we win going away.