Superman's Pre-camp Preview 2012

[Superman]

I've been one of the more optimistic posters on this board this offseason, not because I think the team is going to be great, but because I think the team is going to be noticeably better. I think the majority of the problems that caused us to be so bad last season have been addressed -- namely, coaching and quarterbacking. But my optimism has primarily been in comparison to the doom and gloom projections (like CBS Sports predicting we'll actually be worse; did they actually watch any of our games last season?)

I've pointed out that teams have gone from terrible to the playoffs in one offseason (2008 Dolphins, 1-15 to 11-5; 2008 Falcons, 4-12 to 11-5). I don't expect that kind of turnaround from the Colts, however. It takes a lot of luck (not "Luck," but that helps too) to experience that kind of drastic improvement in one year.

I do, however, expect us to be better than we were last season, and I think that improvement could represent itself in a 4 win improvement. With slightly better quarterbacking and some coaching adjustments, we could have been 5-11 last year. With an improved roster, my pre-camp prediction is 6-10 (I reserve the right to adjust that prediction as the preseason gets underway).

Here's how I see our roster shaping up:

Offensive depth chart (cuts in [brackets] bubble players in bold):

QB -- Luck, Stanton, Harnish

RB -- Brown, Ballard, Carter, Moore [Karim, Evans]

TE -- Fleener, Allen, Miller, Smith [Jones]

WR -- Wayne, Collie, Avery, Hilton, Brazill, Sambrano [Cosby, Adams, Fayson, Ross, Whalen]

LT -- Castonzo (Ijalana/Linkenbach)

LG -- Reitz/Hicks

C -- Satele/Shipley (Hicks)

RG -- McGlynn/Ijalana (Hicks)

RT -- Justice/Linkenbach (Ijalana)

Rotational OL -- [Olsen, Anderson, Tepper, Baker, Taylor, Foster]

Most exciting: WR/TE

I think our depth and versatility at receiver and tight end is promising. We did good by not only getting weapons for our rookie quarterback, but by retaining Reggie Wayne, someone who can be relied on for production and professionalism. I expect a big playmaker to emerge from this group, and it wouldn't surprise me if it's T.Y. Hilton.

Most concerning: OL

We're better along the line than we were the past two seasons. I think Satele is a really good center, and if Castonzo takes a sophomore leap, then left tackle is set. Justice isn't a rock at right tackle, but he's better than the merry-go-round we had last season. However, this group has no chemistry, and the holdovers haven't experienced very much continuity due to injuries. I think our line has a low ceiling in 2012, and worst-case scenario, could be no better than it's been since 2010.

Honorable mention: Andrew Luck

This is the first time in a long time that we haven't been looking forward to seeing #18 at this time of year. What if we made a mistake? What if Luck isn't as good as we think he is? What if Manning plays at an MVP level for the next five years, and we hardly sniff the playoffs? I'm as anxious about the quarterback as I am excited. But no question: Luck with "rookie blues" is better than Collins, Painter and Orlovsky.

Defensive depth chart (cuts in [brackets] bubble players in bold):

DT/DE (nose, three-tech, five-tech) -- McKinney, Johnson, Chapman, Redding, Moala, Nevis, Mathews [Anunoby, Shirley, Aiono]

DE/OLB (hybrid pass rushers) -- Freeney, Mathis, Hughes, Fugger [Addison, Brown, Hickman]

ILB/SAM/WILL -- Angerer, Conner, Lumpkin, Edds [Freeman, Harvey, Lutrus]

CB -- Powers, Thomas, Rucker, Vaughn, Johnson, Chism [Fenelus, Jackson, Johnson, B. King, J. King, Lindsey]

FS -- Bethea, Lefeged [Caldwell]

SS -- Zbikowski, Hines, L. Thomas [Merletti, Newton]

Most Exciting: Defensive front

The change to a hybrid front will make the defense bigger and stronger at the point of attack, and allow the schemes to adjust to set our pass rushers free on passing downs. I'm not worried about the adjustments for Freeney and Mathis, particularly in coverage, because the coaches have more sense than to expose them to mismatches. I think this change is a clear net-positive for the defense.

Most concerning: Secondary

Outside of Bethea, we have no proven playmakers. There are a couple of guys who have shown flashes at times, but no one who has made their stamp in the NFL. The old soft coverage made our guys look worse than they really are, but there's still not a lot of proven talent. I like Powers, but he's often on the sidelines, and was drafted to play a less aggressive coverage scheme. Zbikowski is a decent addition, but he's not a stand-out contributor on defense. Lots of unanswered questions on this unit, and the worst-case scenario is that we can't cover anyone in an increasingly pass-happy league.

Honorable mention: Jerry Hughes, Josh Chapman

Hughes was projected to be a hybrid pass rusher in the NFL, not a full-time end. His role in the hybrid defense should help him find a groove and be a solid contributor. There is no room for excuses at this point. Chapman was a difference maker against the run at Alabama, and that's on a bum knee. If he's healthy, he should get plenty of snaps at nose tackle, and his impact should be significant.

Special teams:

K -- Vinatieri (McAfee)

P -- McAfee [stahovich]

LS -- Snow (Miller) [Overton]

Returners: (Hilton, Brazill, Sambrano) [Karim]

I expect McAfee to handle some kicks in preseason, with Stahovich being a camp leg. The only real change I could see would be saving a roster spot by going with Miller at long snapper rather than Snow, since Miller can also backup the tight end position. Nothing to see here.

The returners are a mixed bag. Hilton is a very good returner, but has injury concerns and will be used primarily as a receiver. Brazill and Sambrano both have experience. I hope the staff puts a premium on securing possession rather than trying to cheat yards out of returns. Karim can make things happen, but has issues with ball security (five fumbles in 192 career touches, but improved last season).

Practice squad: Whalen, Anderson, Anunoby, L. Thomas, Chism, J. Brown, Freeman, Merletti

I have 48 spots set, with five spots to be decided among 12 bubble players. Final cut day is going to be interesting. Injuries and additional roster moves can change this dramatically, but this is my pre-camp depth chart. Still plenty of question marks, but I think we'll be better than most outlets give us credit for at this point.

[Gavin]

Excellent write up SuperMan,

[NewColtsFan]

I think some of the moves you have that jump out most to me are on defense...

Lumpkin as a back-up ILB. Who did you have in that spot before we signed Lumpkin?

Hickman not making the roster at OLB. Not even a bubble. Thought most here were high on him?

Lots of question marks in the secondary, corners and back-up strong safety....

On offense, not sure the difference between guys you have listed as the back-ups on the OL, and the guys you have listed as "rotational OL" Also, a question... anyone know if Ilijana can play Left Guard? If McGlynn is solid at RG, could Ilijana move over to the other side? Just asking...

Otherwise.... thanks for this... really good stuff... I assume you'll update before the start of the regular season...

[FireJimCaldwell]

Nice read!

[Superman]

I think some of the moves you have that jump out most to me are on defense...

Lumpkin as a back-up ILB. Who did you have in that spot before we signed Lumpkin?

Hickman not making the roster at OLB. Not even a bubble. Thought most here were high on him?

Lots of question marks in the secondary, corners and back-up strong safety....

On offense, not sure the difference between guys you have listed as the back-ups on the OL, and the guys you have listed as "rotational OL" Also, a question... anyone know if Ilijana can play Left Guard? If McGlynn is solid at RG, could Ilijana move over to the other side? Just asking...

Otherwise.... thanks for this... really good stuff... I assume you'll update before the start of the regular season...

Just want to mention that this isn't the Camp Bible. Just my accumulation of thoughts over the past couple months. Some of the position hierarchy has to do with the way the player was acquired, which indicates how highly the team thinks of him. Some has to do with scouting reports.

For a guy like Hickman, I think the Hughes and Fugger have those backup spots locked down, and I figure with the fronts we're playing, another hybrid player doesn't fit. If someone ahead of him doesn't do anything in camp, he'd be right there. But he hasn't played himself onto the roster at this point. Definitely someone to keep an eye on, though.

At ILB, we've been perilously thin all offseason. I wondered what the plan was, and I still kind of wonder if they have their eye on maybe adding someone or are set with what we have. I guess releasing Galippo says something about the importance of depth at that position to the coaching staff, but I'm concerned. I was going to mention this position in my write-up, but went with cornerback instead. Lumpkin sounds like a player, though, and I think he has a good shot at earning a spot.

On the offensive line, I think Ijalana is between positions, and if he's healthy, the staff will want to figure out where they want to use him. Both tackle spots are kind of set, barring injury, so the question is going to be whether Ijalana can win a position battle at guard. I think Reitz earned a penciled in spot at left guard, though he wasn't anything spectacular. The real battle will be at right guard. The other linemen are bottom rung at this point, and unless they stand out, probably won't make the roster. Doesn't matter much what position they'll play, but I figure they'll all be given a chance at various spots.

The secondary is ... a work in progress. Like I said, it's Bethea, and a bunch of question marks. I'm not as worried as others are; I think Powers, Thomas, Rucker and Johnson can all play in a more thoughtful scheme, but the floor is pretty low for that group. It could be a disaster. Lefeged would be okay at strong safety if necessary, but I thought he looked at his best backing up Bethea in preseason last year. Still, not a lot of proven depth at safety (none, really).

[Gavin]

Im going to be attending Training Camp this year, sometime during that I will make out my final roster but it looks alot like SuperMans

[Superman]

Im going to be attending Training Camp this year, sometime during that I will make out my final roster but it looks alot like SuperMans

Take good notes.

[funktacious2]

Im going to be attending Training Camp this year, sometime during that I will make out my final roster but it looks alot like SuperMans

Ditto on both. I guess living in A-town has it's pluses, right?

[Gavin]

Ditto on both. I guess living in A-town has it's pluses, right?

A few +'s pop up from time to time but few and far between but Colts Camp is a MAJOR plus, Didn't know ya lived in Anderson

[Mustang82]

Hope to see some of you guys at camp! I live in Pendleton which is just a hop skip and a jump from Anderson. I work nights and should be there everyday. hope to run into some of you guys down there. Hopefully everything falls together better than expected when it comes to players falling in line in time.

PS I feel if creating a depth chart it should be as complete as possible with what is known. SO where is McAfee at on your QB depth chart? lol

[Gavin]

I got family from Pendleton, I used to live there