Is The Nfl Draft "sophisticated Guesswork"?

[funktacious2]

Here's a fun video on NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/09000d5d826f73ca/Football-Freakonomics-Draft-Luck

With all the busts out there, with all the successful talents who were drafted late, there is undoubtedly much truth to this. At what point do scouts go from having a talent for scouting to just crossing their fingers? If history is to be believed, just how much more likely is Andrew Luck to be a sure thing than RG3? Does real success in the draft come more from who you pick or HOW you pick? What is your opinion?

[UndecidedFrog]

Cade Massey's study was based on a performance over salary dollar basis. Before the CBA, this meant that the top picked QBs would have a huge denominator to work out from under with performance, compared to the cheaper 2nd or 3rd rounders.

The better measure for success would be straight performance.

[funktacious2]

Cade Massey's study was based on a performance over salary dollar basis. Before the CBA, this meant that the top picked QBs would have a huge denominator to work out from under with performance, compared to the cheaper 2nd or 3rd rounders.

The better measure for success would be straight performance.

Ignore the part about Cade Massey, it's not what the video is about anyways. lol The video simply cited an interesting fact from the Massey-Thaler paper, but really didn't have much to do with the main point of the draft being "sophisticated guesswork".

[Dan]

It's not guesswork, that implies it involves heading in blind. It's got a huge amount of luck, sure, but it isn't guesswork.

[21isSuperman]

Depends on how you look at it. If I do no research and I go into the draft and pick 7 guys and all of them end up playing for my team, that could mean many things. Does it mean I just got lucky? Does it mean I have a natural instinct? Does it mean my team is so bad that 7 rookies end up making plays? Does it mean my coaches have a good system in that makes it simple on players to make plays? What if I pick a guy who is insanely talented, but he doesn't put in any effort and ends up not doing anything? Is that my fault? What if I draft a guy like Bob Sanders, tons of talent, but injured all the time?

[UndecidedFrog]

Ignore the part about Cade Massey, it's not what the video is about anyways. lol The video simply cited an interesting fact from the Massey-Thaler paper, but really didn't have much to do with the main point of the draft being "sophisticated guesswork".

I really can't ignore that, since it is the basis for the premise that the draft is guesswork. From using that faulty measure, they conclude that the #1 QB is as likely to succeed as the #2 QB picked. I really don't understand why they would equilibrate using salary dollars. If I spend for a Porsche, should I expect a Prosche performance? Is that the same as if I spend for a Ford Mustang, and obtain a Ford Mustang performance?

[DenverFan]

Scouting isn't hard or difficult if you know what you're looking for.

The biggest thing that determines player sucess is how they think, if they are hardworking and strong willed then more often than not they will succeed.

Another large part that determines busts is the situation of where they are drafted. Bad teams don't use their players right which leads to their draft picks busting.

Just my opinion, didn't watch the video.

[gacker65]

Scouting isn't hard or difficult if you know what you're looking for.

The biggest thing that determines player sucess is how they think, if they are hardworking and strong willed then more often than not they will succeed.

Another large part that determines busts is the situation of where they are drafted. Bad teams don't use their players right which leads to their draft picks busting.

Just my opinion, didn't watch the video.

I agree with you to a point. You look at the players and watch their technics, abilities and natural talent, then you look at their negative points. That is where alot of teams go wrong in drafting players, they forget or overlook the negative aspects of a player.

[DenverFan]

So I ended up seeing the video tonight, it wa on NFLN. I completely disagree with the draft freakonomics.

"Statistics mean nothing to the individual."

Just because you have a 50 50 shot at picking the right guy doesn't mean the player you select has a 50 50 shot at succeeding, if that makes any sense.

[funktacious2]

I really can't ignore that, since it is the basis for the premise that the draft is guesswork. From using that faulty measure, they conclude that the #1 QB is as likely to succeed as the #2 QB picked. I really don't understand why they would equilibrate using salary dollars. If I spend for a Porsche, should I expect a Prosche performance? Is that the same as if I spend for a Ford Mustang, and obtain a Ford Mustang performance?

I'm already regretting making the topic title I did lol. I went with the catchier line from the video to draw attention for discussion, but the video is entitled "Draft Luck" not "Is the draft sophisticated guesswork?" Me saying to ignore the Cade Massey stuff was sort of my way of saying, "Yeah, I know, nobody thinks so either." lol. The intention I had with the topic was to hear people's opinions on what they thought about the draft involving luck. NFL.com has a segment going on right now about late/undrafted successes and early busts, which is really what stirred this on. The topic wasn't meant to be persuasive or had no other agenda that to discuss. Personally, as an avid fan of following the draft and creating mock drafts, I don't believe in sophisticated guesswork, but I do agree with some points in the video that in the end some teams need a little bit of luck on top of those picks, and I agree that the likely hood of say the 3rd drafted CB being better than 4th is naturally not going to be that much.

[funktacious2]

So I ended up seeing the video tonight, it wa on NFLN. I completely disagree with the draft freakonomics.

"Statistics mean nothing to the individual."

Just because you have a 50 50 shot at picking the right guy doesn't mean the player you select has a 50 50 shot at succeeding, if that makes any sense.

I don't think they were saying that they have a 50/50 chance of succeeding, I think it was just 50/50 in who is better (Though I think that statistic is a little undocumented). I.E. receiver no. 2 in draft throws for 100+ more than receiver No. 1 in the draft but they both have 1000+ yards in their first season, neither was really unsuccessful, just one was better.

[Flash7]

I'm already regretting making the topic title I did lol. I went with the catchier line from the video to draw attention for discussion, but the video is entitled "Draft Luck" not "Is the draft sophisticated guesswork?" Me saying to ignore the Cade Massey stuff was sort of my way of saying, "Yeah, I know, nobody thinks so either." lol. The intention I had with the topic was to hear people's opinions on what they thought about the draft involving luck. NFL.com has a segment going on right now about late/undrafted successes and early busts, which is really what stirred this on. The topic wasn't meant to be persuasive or had no other agenda that to discuss. Personally, as an avid fan of following the draft and creating mock drafts, I don't believe in sophisticated guesswork, but I do agree with some points in the video that in the end some teams need a little bit of luck on top of those picks, and I agree that the likely hood of say the 3rd drafted CB being better than 4th is naturally not going to be that much.

Its not a fair comparison to compare early draft choices vs- late round draft choices. We're essentially looking at only a handful of early draft choices -vs- numerous late round draft choices. Is it fair to compare 20 draft choices per year -vs- 60+ draft choices per year. Odds are that there will be some busts early in the draft but also numerous diamonds in the rough from the later rounds. But the seer number of the sample size in the later rounds would make it likely to find those diomonds in the rough.

[kcusrotaredom]

Here's a fun video on NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/v...mics-Draft-Luck

With all the busts out there, with all the successful talents who were drafted late, there is undoubtedly much truth to this. At what point do scouts go from having a talent for scouting to just crossing their fingers? If history is to be believed, just how much more likely is Andrew Luck to be a sure thing than RG3? Does real success in the draft come more from who you pick or HOW you pick? What is your opinion?

There isn't even any argument. Luck is a guaranteed franchise QB and RG3 is a guaranteed bust. people that opinion-ate the opposite are the same people that think they are going to win the lottery every week.

[pacolts56]

There isn't even any argument. Luck is a guaranteed franchise QB and RG3 is a guaranteed bust. people that opinion-ate the opposite are the same people that think they are going to win the lottery every week.

Ooooh..... I'd be careful with guarantees and absolutes with any QB.

Too much depends on the other 52 guys on the roster.

[atapcl]

The draft is partly quesswork and partly science. Athletic ability can be measured. A person's ability to be aware of what is arround him (field vission) is difficult to measure. A person's determination to succeed is difficult to determine. Teams measure what they can and try to do interviews to put a piece of the puzzle to the unknown. Film study is also a must to see how a player interacts on the field and if he consistantly produces.

[kcusrotaredom]

Ooooh..... I'd be careful with guarantees and absolutes with any QB.

Too much depends on the other 52 guys on the roster.

True that for the wins category. But QB performance still stands tall on its own merit. Manning is probably the best QB of all time, yet he only won 1 Superbowl. See? But with just the RG3 vs. Luck, I'm 100% confident Luck will have the better QB career; statistics do not lie.

[Fr33UpFr33ney]

This is What I've been telling people. Did anybody see moneyball?

I mean, The pat's drafts are no better than anybody elses. The've been stealing LB from us for years with thier 2 draft pick in the first round. But the fact is, They went to 3 superbowls trading picks for more picks. (Amongst other thing Cough "spygate" Cough)

The 1st overall draft pick for Luck if Peyton is Healthy enough to play...to me is just ridiculous.

Luck threw 7 INT in the last 6 games he played not including the Bowl game. The guy super overrated, but his is "Clutch"....at least collegiatelly.

[pacolts56]

True that for the wins category. But QB performance still stands tall on its own merit. Manning is probably the best QB of all time, yet he only won 1 Superbowl. See? But with just the RG3 vs. Luck, I'm 100% confident Luck will have the better QB career; statistics do not lie.

I agree with that.... and I believe Luck will have an excellent NFL career.

I'm just not sure RGIII is headed for the bust label. He's a sharp kid in his own right and has physical talent that can't be denied. Whether or not he can be coached from and convert his game from the Baylor offense to the NFL game is the question.

If he can and they're both on a well-balanced team I they both he and Luck will have nice careers.