Current Team Need Assessment and Resulting Mock Draft

[Archer]

I usually do this pretty early in the draft process, and the FA period has been changing things significantly.  Here's how I currently see it:

 

QB – The reality of the matter is that you need three good arms in TC, as you want all the receivers to get sufficient work without tiring out Luck’s arm.  Hasselbeck’s arm is 40 years old, like the rest of him.  The need is for a late-round or rookie FA QB as a camp arm and to run the scout team from the PS.

 

RB – I like the Gore/Herron duo.  Additional competition for Tipton is needed for the #3 RB slot, with the loser hitting the PS.  Late round need, but I could see Grigson jumping on someone he loves much earlier (David Johnson?).  Grigson’s a loose cannon on RBs, but he might be a little gun-shy with 1^st round picks, as Trent broke his heart.

 

WR – We have a good top five in place: Hilton, Johnson, Moncrief, Carter, and Brown.  We’ve developed Lankford, Whalen, and Lenz as possible #5s.  And we only kept four WRs most of last year.  We’ve got a great mix of receivers with a diverse set of skills.  At some point, WR may very well be the BPA, so I wouldn’t rule out a mid-round pick, even though it’s not a need IMO.

 

TE – Fleener and Allen are FAs after next year, and it’s unlikely we can retain them both.  Another option to Doyle and Swoope would be nice and remains a late-round possibility.

 

OT – Costanzo will get a long-term deal at LT, but Cherilus played poorly while injured last year and may not be ready for TC.  Reitz was re-signed and showed he can fill in on an emergency basis.  It would be great to draft Cherilus’ replacement one year early, so he can be a better contingency plan than Reitz this year.  If a good value isn’t available in the 1^st two rounds, then this will have to be done next year (and the position becomes a mid- to late-round possibility for depth purposes).

 

OG/C – We have a lot of young and developing OGs and centers: Mewhort, Thornton, Holmes, Harrison, Heenan, John (though primarily an OT), and Arkin.  In addition, we have a spattering of veterans in case no one else is ready: Herremans, Louis, Thomas, and Reitz.  There is no need to add ANOTHER developing player until we see what cream rises to the top.

 

FB – There are none on the roster and we haven’t generally used one.  I wouldn’t bet against a low-level FB being added at some point, but I doubt he will be drafted.

 

DL – Lots of young, developing NT types and mainstays in Jones and Langford.  The need is for a developing 6’4”. 310 lb. DT/DE type (which is what I think Pagano and Grigson envision), as the young guys on the roster trend towards NT skill sets.  I could see it anywhere from 3^rd round to 6^th, though probably at the early end of that range.

 

ILB – People are over-estimating this as a need, as D’Qwell has another year and Irving is a worthy successor (with minor coverage concerns).  Freeman’s a FA after the year, but he should return to form and be re-signed.  A few under-rated back-ups in Muamba, Loiseau, and McNary (rapist?).  Another back-up option would be a good use of a mid- to late-round pick because of the questions surrounding all the ILBs on the team.

 

OLB – There’s simply no space on the roster this year.  Next year, pencil in a high pick for OLB, as Mathis and Walden will probably be done.  This year, no need.

 

CB – Since the team only likes Butler against slot receivers, the depth at boundary CB is very poor.   Given Toler’s extensive injury history and expiring contract (2016 FA), a high draft pick would serve the dual purpose of being a top back-up and a great succession plan.  This is my favorite for the 1^st round pick.  A second one would be nice late in the draft (though Grigson hasn’t drafted a single CB in three drafts).

 

S – While there are currently two older placeholders and two young SS types, there is a high need for a young, developing FS type.  Grigson showed last year he was picky when drafting safeties (or not drafting them, as the case may be).  This will be a possibility all draft long, with him hopefully pulling the trigger in the 2^nd or 3^rd round. I wouldn’t expect more than one, though.

 

ST – No need except possibly at RS.  Wouldn't expect a dedicated draft pick to this, though.  Cribbs can do it if we keep an otherwise worthless returner.

 

All that being said, here’s my mock:

 

1^st – Jalen Collins, CB, LSU.  Perfect scheme fit.

2^nd – Donovan Smith, OT, Penn St.  At a lower weight, he should have elite RT quickness and run-blocking skills.  An under-rated prospect.

3^rd – Josh Shaw, S, USC.  Love his aggression and cover skills.  I like the 3^rd round S possibilities, and think someone good will fall to us at this position here.  I love the fit for Adrian Amos in the 3^rd or 4^th too.

4^th – Tyeler Davison, DL, Fresno St.  A rising athletic freak…he may not be here.

5^th – Bryce Callahan, CB, Rice.  One of my favorite sleepers.  Aggressive and lightning-quick man defender who is small.  After running in the low 4.3s and posting a 43.5” vertical at his PD, he will be rising.

6^th – John Crockett, RB, ND St.  Quick feet and had a great E-W Shrine week in pass pro and receiving.  His scouting report reads like a young/healthy Vick Ballard.

 6^th – DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech.  Tore ACL and will need a redshirt season.  Colts can wait, because there probably aren’t roster spots for all draftees (or WRs in particular) this year.  Big guy who looks like a poor man’s Andre Johnson.

7^th –  Jeremy Lovelock, QB, Prairie View.  Good tools, bad stats in college. 

7^th – Cole Farrand, ILB, Maryland.  Better measurables than expected at PD make him draftable.

[Defjamz26]

I could actually see us going DL in the first round. We let Redding walk, and could use a playmaker on defense, specifically on the line. Not another guy who is "solid" or some diamond in the rough guy who we overrate because he exceeded expectations, but we need an actual playmaker on D. The only one we have is Vontae with Mathis' injury.

 

A guy like Eddie Goldman would be perfect. None of the other youngs guys on the line are good and/or proven enough to scare the team away from drafting a high round rookie.

[12isthenew18]

change jalen with peters or johnson

[Exodus]

Josh Shaw 

[UKColt13]

I don't hate Jalen but I'd prefer Marcus Peters.

 

Rest of the mock seems solid. I'd wait a little longer to take an OT though. Cherilus was playing injured last year and has had the offseason to heal up. He's good enough to start when he's healthy. I think we have too many "now holes" on D to start plugging "future holes" on O. In the 1st 2 rounds in 2016 draft for sure, just think you're a year too early.

 

I like Josh Shaw's tape but he has a lot of maturity issues, that we need to take into account. Especially the bonehead incident from last year.

 

I like Callahan and Crockett though.

[Doctor Mad]

Nice job with assessments and choices.  However, I agree that Marcus Peters is the better choice at CB.  If not there, I propose Cam Erving from FSU.  He can play all of the OLine positions and could start at C immediately.

[akcolt]

I agree with your assessment and could live with the draft. I think the two biggest holes behind S are CB and RT. I think all 3 should be addressed in this draft. Amos is the guy I prefer

[wig]

I as thinking about this earlier, and started wondering if moving up to get 2-3 impact players is best given the situation.  I would rather as a rule that Grigs keeps his picks for the most part, but depending on how the board works out they could possibly move back into the early 2nd, and move up into the mid 2nd while keeping their 3rd.  Or keep the 1st as is and move into the 2nd.  Just thinking out loud.

[Archer]

Seems to be a lot of preference for Peters here.  His attitude problems push him down my list of preferences, and I don't think he's going to be a 1st rounder.  Shaw's weird story isn't a deal-breaker for me because he's only a 3rd rounder.  I'll take some risks later in the draft, but not with the 1st rounder.  I actually think that Darby from FSU or Byron Jones from UConn have better chances of the 1st round than Peters.  Thanks to everyone for being respectful, as I know I have a vastly different opinion of the DL than most of you...

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

Could live with your draft, but honestly I see a DL or Edge rusher, ILB early in the draft. Davision Like him, WR also wouldn't surprise me. Also have to draft a safety somewhere?

[funktacious2]

I love this mock. I think some of our opinions on team needs and preferences for particular players may be pretty similar. I am however, one of those people who would still prefer Peters in the 1st even despite his attitude issue in college. I really like picks 2-6a though, and I wouldn't be upset if we took Collins in the first. He's still likely to be a great player.