Indianapolis (+ 6 1/2) @ New England (1-18-15)

[oldunclemark]

6:40 EST (these games should not be played at night in cold weather cities)

CBS....over-under 54...

40 degrees...Light rains to start the game heavier rain late in the game..

......big edge to Patriots

Forget the two interceptions, which were short 4rd downs punts,

Andrew Luck (390 of 616, 4761, 40 TDs, 16 INTs) was near perfect throwing for (27 of 43) 265 yards and 2 TDs

against Denver..running 2 times for 21 yards.

Colts will need more out of Daniel Herron than (last week) 63 yards on 23 carries,,

and 8 catches for 32 yards....

do you like the matchups..

....TY Hilton (82 catches, 1,345 yards) vs. NE all-pro Darelle Revis

....Coby Fleener (51 catches, 774 yards) probably vs. NE DB Brandon Browner

Colts kicker Adamn Vinatieri has missed makebale field goals 2 time sin 3 weeks but he kicked in NE for 1,000

years so he'll be at home Sunday..

NE QB Tom Brady (380 of 628, 4,343, 25 TDs, 11 INTs) saved the day last week with33 of 50 for 367 against

Baltimore in the 35-31 win.

do you like the matchup..

Rob Gronkowski (82 catches, 1,124) was 7 for 108 last week..vs. nobody.

The Colts have no one who can cover him

Patriots allowed 28 first downs and 428 yards last week and they were dominated in time of possession

32:39 to 27:21)..Patriots had 14 yards rushing on 13 carries...Colts held Denver to 88 yards rushing..

There is a black hole here numbers-wise. On a rainy night where you'll need to run the ball..both teams are coming off games where they didn't run it well...

So we may see two top QBs throwing the ball in the rain..

With that in mind...take the under.

Keeping in mind that Indy was a 9-point underdog and won last week in Denver..Id take the Colts and the 6 1/2

[oldunclemark]

Pats center Bryan Stork being out is significant.....NE has to be able to run on t he Colts

[pgt_rob]

NE runs best between the Tackle position anyway, hope we are ready for that again.

[oldunclemark]

This may sound crazy..but I'd have Andrew run a few read option plays

..safe..and NE doesn't expect it

[dw49]

6:40 EST (these games should not be played at night in cold weather cities)

CBS....over-under 54...

40 degrees...Light rains to start the game heavier rain late in the game..

......big edge to Patriots

Forget the two interceptions, which were short 4rd downs punts,

Andrew Luck (390 of 616, 4761, 40 TDs, 16 INTs) was near perfect throwing for (27 of 43) 265 yards and 2 TDs

against Denver..running 2 times for 21 yards.

Colts will need more out of Daniel Herron than (last week) 63 yards on 23 carries,,

and 8 catches for 32 yards....

do you like the matchups..

....TY Hilton (82 catches, 1,345 yards) vs. NE all-pro Darelle Revis

....Coby Fleener (51 catches, 774 yards) probably vs. NE DB Brandon Browner

Colts kicker Adamn Vinatieri has missed makebale field goals 2 time sin 3 weeks but he kicked in NE for 1,000

years so he'll be at home Sunday..

NE QB Tom Brady (380 of 628, 4,343, 25 TDs, 11 INTs) saved the day last week with33 of 50 for 367 against

Baltimore in the 35-31 win.

do you like the matchup..

Rob Gronkowski (82 catches, 1,124) was 7 for 108 last week..vs. nobody.

The Colts have no one who can cover him

Patriots allowed 28 first downs and 428 yards last week and they were dominated in time of possession

32:39 to 27:21)..Patriots had 14 yards rushing on 13 carries...Colts held Denver to 88 yards rushing..

There is a black hole here numbers-wise. On a rainy night where you'll need to run the ball..both teams are coming off games where they didn't run it well...

So we may see two top QBs throwing the ball in the rain..

With that in mind...take the under.

Keeping in mind that Indy was a 9-point underdog and won last week in Denver..Id take the Colts and the 6 1/2

 

 

Why is rain a big edge to the Pats ? It's synthetic turf , so won't be a "mud bowl ." Brady had not played all that well in the rain 

[oldunclemark]

Why is rain a big edge to the Pats ? It's synthetic turf , so won't be a "mud bowl ." Brady had not played all that well in the rain

Rain is a big edge to NE because the Colts play indoors and they must pass well to win.

Patriots, on the season, run the ball better than we do..Easier to run in the rain

[dw49]

Rain is a big edge to NE because the Colts play indoors and they must pass well to win.

Patriots, on the season, run the ball better than we do..Easier to run in the rain

 

 

If the field is a little slippery , it gives an edge to the receivers. Sometimes the ball is slippery , so I guess that would make it tougher passing. Not sure it's "easier " to run in the rain and being a dome team should have little effect as the temperatures is not anywhere near frigid.

 

I mean yea... I would rather have good conditions but I don't see where rain will provide anything more than a small edge to NE. Plus Brady has never played too well in the rain. 

[ricker182]

If the field is a little slippery , it gives an edge to the receivers. Sometimes the ball is slippery , so I guess that would make it tougher passing. Not sure it's "easier " to run in the rain and being a dome team should have little effect as the temperatures is not anywhere near frigid.

I mean yea... I would rather have good conditions but I don't see where rain will provide anything more than a small edge to NE. Plus Brady has never played too well in the rain.

There is no big edge to the Patriots. Where does that come from.

Brady has not been good in the rain.

Where has Luck been bad in bad weather?

I don't think the rain makes a difference in this one.

[VaAllDay757]

This may sound crazy..but I'd have Andrew run a few read option plays..safe..and NE doesn't expect it

That's not crazy it works because they rarely run that play and it worked just fine last week until the penalty got called

[oldunclemark]

There is no big edge to the Patriots. Where does that come from.

Brady has not been good in the rain.

Where has Luck been bad in bad weather?

I don't think the rain makes a difference in this one.

In my mind..Tom Brady is a very good bad weather QB..he plays in it all the time..and Andrew has rarely played in bad weather

..Colts are an indoor home team playing on the road that must throw to win outdoors in bad weather.

That's always been a problem traditionally in the NFL and certainly with the Colts.

[oldunclemark]

I'd also try to isolate Coby Fleener

...stack 3 receivers to one side and Coby to the other..

..see if they go one on one and with who.....Browner vs. Fleener is the match I want us to exploit.

I think he can beat him.

[ricker182]

In my mind..Tom Brady is a very good bad weather QB..he plays in it all the time..and Andrew has rarely played in bad weather

..Colts are an indoor home team playing on the road that must throw to win outdoors in bad weather.

That's always been a problem traditionally in the NFL and certainly with the Colts.

It's almost like they don't play 8 road games.

Brady has not been good in the rain.

Luck isn't Manning. He's fine in bad weather.

[jvan1973]

It's almost like they don't play 8 road games.

Brady has not been good in the rain.

Luck isn't Manning. He's fine in bad weather.

What bad weather games has he played in?

[ricker182]

What bad weather games has he played in?

Not necessarily bad weather, but cold weather.  

  

It's a small sample size but he's been fine.  

  

They're professional football players. If rain affects them that much, then they don't belong in the league.

[ponyboy]

It's almost like they don't play 8 road games.

Brady has not been good in the rain.

Luck isn't Manning. He's fine in bad weather.

 

I always thought that Brady was a very good bad weather QB.  At least in cold/wind/snow.  I'm not sure about rain.  When has Brady been bad in the rain?

[ricker182]

I always thought that Brady was a very good bad weather QB.  At least in cold/wind/snow.  I'm not sure about rain.  When has Brady been bad in the rain?

I can think of one Cincy game last year and a Jets game a few years back where he was terrible. 

Obviously I don't have the stats to back it up but those are the only games I remember the Pats playing recently where it rained pretty heavily. 

 

He's been good in the snow and cold though.

[oldunclemark]

It's almost like they don't play 8 road games.

Brady has not been good in the rain.

Luck isn't Manning. He's fine in bad weather.

It's almost like they don't play 8 road games.

Brady has not been good in the rain.

Luck isn't Manning. He's fine in bad weather.

The AFC South is a warm weather division....Tennessee..Houston and Jacksonville.

..and we play indoors..

were not being honest to say that Tom Brady..who has always played home games in cold weather..doesn't have an edge 'on paper' over

Andrew Luck ..who plays in the AFC south and indoors..

Not saying Colts cant make it a close game. But its a factor..

..and as long s there's been domes...dome and west coast teams have always had trouble in winter games in the east.

We can admit that..I'd rather play indoors than outside in the rain

Pro football players are affected by bad weather....if they don't play in it often

[Tracy Denton]

The AFC South is a warm weather division....Tennessee..Houston and Jacksonville.

..and we play indoors..

were not being honest to say that Tom Brady..who has always played home games in cold weather..doesn't have an edge 'on paper' over

Andrew Luck ..who plays in the AFC south and indoors..

Not saying Colts cant make it a close game. But its a factor..

..and as long s there's been domes...dome and west coast teams have always had trouble in winter games in the east.

We can admit that..I'd rather play indoors than outside in the rain

Pro football players are affected by bad weather....if they don't play in it often

You make it sound like every COLT player has never played outside or in bad weather. Dont forget where these players come from, starting at youth football, high school, collage...all players have played in nasty weather !!

[bababooey]

What bad weather games has he played in?

he won four of his last 5 w gametime temp below 50. We just had a rainy game vs. the Titans in week 17.

[jvan1973]

he won four of his last 5 w gametime temp below 50. We just had a rainy game vs. the Titans in week 17.

50 degrees is far from bad weather

[ricker182]

50 degrees is far from bad weather

If remember correctly Brady is very good in <30°F but very poor in the rain.

[bababooey]

50 degrees is far from bad weather

sorry...40 degrees. He also has 83 QBR in rain in 2 games since last year, Brady is 74 in two rain games since then, but Luck is 0-2 and Brady is 2-0

[jvan1973]

sorry...40 degrees. He also has 83 QBR in rain in 2 games since last year, Brady is 74 in two rain games since then, but Luck is 0-2 and Brady is 2-0

I have no doubt andrew will be great today. Take care of the ball, no ints and we can win today

[ford.matt1313]

This reminds me a lot of 2006. The defense was terrible in the regular season and then going into he playoffs we stepped up. New England is our nemesis. They ruined so many of our playoff runs. We should have more than enough motivation. Andrew is playing so much smarter and better in the playoffs it's incredible. I was watching nfl insiders on ESPN on Friday and they have like a "bold predictions" section and I'm pretty sure it was mark schelreth that said his bold prediction was Herron getting over 100 yards rushing in this game. He said not all purpose yards but 100 yards on the ground. How amazing would that be, do u think that might be the success to winning

[oldunclemark]

spread is up to seven ..Indianapolis (+7) in most places..Sunday morning

[pizzaman67]

personally i think it should be around 8+, by the numbers it would seem vegas is begging you to take the pats. just like last week in denver. should be real bad weather by game time. will affect the pats as much as indy.....GO COLTS!!!!!!!

[oldunclemark]

You make it sound like every COLT player has never played outside or in bad weather. Dont forget where these players come from, starting at youth football, high school, collage...all players have played in nasty weather !!

You make it sound like every COLT player has never played outside or in bad weather. Dont forget where these players come from, starting at youth football, high school, collage...all players have played in nasty weather !!

But its pro football and you've got to be accustomed to throwing the ball in bad weather to do it at the highest level (key words there) Its not Colts players...its Dome players...and players who play indoors..

You cant say that You're hearing me say that Andrew is somehow a bad player and I didn't say that..

Again..playing outdoors in bad weather on the road....is something Dome teams don't do often and it is difficult..

Its always been that way..

Andrew will play well but Brady has the edge going in because he plays outdoor bad weather home games a lot.

That seems obvious to me

[pizzaman67]

rain and low 30's by game time

[geordiecolt]

sounds so simple but we need to look after the ball, we cant afford any turnovers against this pats team, we need to make sure we bring their RB's down first time especially Vereen as we let Anderson have to many yards after he should have been caught last week, we need to look for the short passes underneath  to keep drives ticking over and not go for the big bomb to often. Need to be able to get some yards through the middle on the ground as well.

 

Gronk will be a mismatch on anybody unfortunately, we just need to hit him hard and in numbers when it goes towards him, we need to get Brady under pressure as well, so we need some more of a pass rush as well I think

 

Id also like to see us get the ball to nicks and use our 2 tight ends as well

[oldunclemark]

NE will have trouble against our tight ends..

...if we can pass protect...those shots will be open

..and short passes to Herron...can milk the clock

[HtownColt]

Vegas about to lose a lot of money by the end of the day

[Football Knowledge]

NE will have trouble against our tight ends..

...if we can pass protect...those shots will be open

..and short passes to Herron...can milk the clock

First of all remember who you are talking about.. You know that Bill Belichick will have something prepared for Fleener and Allen, and Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower are excellent in coverage, ESPECIALLY Jamie Collins and additionally, Browner can cover either or.. I just think that there are too many toys and weapons defensively that Bill can use to mix and match and make life hard for Andrew Luck, and I believe he will...

[HtownColt]

First of all remember who you are talking about.. You know that Bill Belichick will have something prepared for Fleener and Allen, and Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower are excellent in coverage, ESPECIALLY Jamie Collins and additionally, Browner can cover either or.. I just think that there are too many toys and weapons defensively that Bill can use to mix and match and make life hard for Andrew Luck, and I believe he will...

Did you not see what Fleener did to Browner in week 11? Totally destroyed him on the majority of his 150+ yards that game

[Football Knowledge]

Did you not see what Fleener did to Browner in week 11? Totally destroyed him on the majority of his 150+ yards that game

Fleener is no godarn Julius Thomas, Jimmy Graham or any of those guys so quit trying to act like he is .. and it won't happen in this game and IN FOXBORO for the AFC Title game..

[HtownColt]

Fleener is no godarn Julius Thomas, Jimmy Graham or any of those guys so quit trying to act like he is .. and it won't happen in this game and IN FOXBORO for the AFC Title game..

His stats vs Browner speak for itself

[oldunclemark]

If remember correctly Brady is very good in <30°F but very poor in the rain.

wow..

[oldunclemark]

First of all remember who you are talking about.. You know that Bill Belichick will have something prepared for Fleener and Allen, and Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower are excellent in coverage, ESPECIALLY Jamie Collins and additionally, Browner can cover either or.. I just think that there are too many toys and weapons defensively that Bill can use to mix and match and make life hard for Andrew Luck, and I believe he will...

good call...FK