OPCs 3rd Day Draft Prospects - Howard Jones

[OffensivelyPC]

It should be no secret by now my endorsement of Howard Jones.  He is a guy that I noticed during the combine.  There’s been very little film on him that I could find, but to be honest, any game film you find on him at Shepherd should be taken with a grain of salt since it’s a lower division of college football.  The game film on draftbreakdown.com is no exception and can be found at http://draftbreakdown.com/video/howard-jones-vs-nflpa-game-2013/.  You’ll notice a guy with good power, raw but coachable traits, undeveloped but very intriguing potential that I would spend our 6/27^th pick on him without hesitation.

 

But at any rate, I noticed him at the combine, and have been high on him as a late round sleeper. Back at the time when we were looking for ILBs and before we signed D’Qwell Jackson, I said this about Jones:

 

OffensivelyPC, on 25 Feb 2014 - 1:48 PM, said:

I'd like to see where all the mocks and grades end up at the end of this combine.  Preston Brown is an interesting ILB.  He could very well be there in the 3rd or 4th.  Possibly later.  I still like Max Bullough, but he's a bit slow.I think that one of my favorite under the radar guys is Howard Jones.  He's a little raw, but there's no question that he can be an explosive player.  He's just a little small height-wise, but if we invested a year in him, I think he'd make and excellent ILB.

 

 

At the time I said this, it was based on the assumption that Jones was a prospect and would take a year, but that is going to be true whether he’s an OLB or ILB.  That much is still true, and I still believe he could be a decent ILB, but he belongs on the LOS as a stand up rush backer.  Despite his very raw and unpolished technique, he is strong at the point of attack, sets the edge fairly well, and is able to keep an arc toward the QB so that if he doesn’t get to the QB, he is able to collapse and close the pocket.  He won’t be able to do this right away at the NFL level because his technique is so unrefined (and at times, he appears to be out of control), but his speed to power is more than adequate right now at the NFL level.  The reverse power to speed could use more finesse and body control, but that will come with good coaching (not always a luxury for DII schools where coaches allow players to rely solely on their strength and athleticism to beat inferior talent).

 

If any of you ever read or listen to Pat Kirwan on NFL Radio, you’ll hear him talk about Explosion Number and Production Ratio when talking about DL and LB prospects - I came across it in his book “Don’t Take Your Eye Off the Ball”, a very excellent read.  You can google “Explosion Number” or “Production Ratio” and find a more in depth explanation, but both these numbers give an idea, in a nutshell, of a players physical potential and their ability to produce at the NFL level.  In other words, on the one hand, what good is raw physical ability if you don’t use it to make a play?  On the other, what good is college production if you’re not able to beat your man?

 

Let’s look at Explosion Number first.  A good number that is potentially first round worth is anything over a 70.  Explosion Number equals the sum of the Number of Bench Press Reps + Vertical Leap (in inches) + Broad Jump (in feet with decimal rounded to nearest tenth).  Howard’s Numbers at the Combine – 21 reps + 40.5 inches + 10 ft. 4 inches (10.3 feet), which results in an Explosion Number of 71.8.  To give you some perspective, Jadevon Clowney’s number is 68.8, Von Miller in 2011 was 68.5, Justin Houston’s was 76.9,  and for fun, the highest I could find was Mario Williams with a monstrous 85.5.

 

Okay, now for the Production Ratio.  Production Ratio is equals  (Sacks + Tackles for Loss)/Number of Games Played.   The one thing about this ratio is that you want to ensure you’re interpreting the “Number of Games Played” correctly.  For instance, a guy who started all 4 years, you’ll look at all games played and all stats.  But lets say that a prospect played in 11 games his redshirt freshman year, but came in only on certain plays, and then started his entire sophomore and junior seasons before entering the NFL draft.  You’ll only want to primarily focus on the redshirt sophomore and junior years.  Anything over 1 is good.  Here’s the guys above Clowney – 1.82 , Miller – 2.6, Houston – 2.21 , Williams -2.15.  Now I purposefully chose these guys because I wanted to stack Jones against those considered to be some of the best of their respective draft class (yeah, Houston went in the 3^rd, but given how good he is now and his explosion production numbers, it’s a wonder how he dropped so far).  Also bear in mind, I'm comparing him to the current elite (well Clowney is regarded as potentially elite), but most guys, even pro bowl starters typically score anywhere between a 1.0-1.5.  Plus all these guys played D-I, Howard didn’t.  So while we can’t know exactly how productive he would have been in the SEC, for instance, his number should at least be as high or higher than the above four guys.  Jones was a 4 year starter and played in 47 games, had 65 TFL and 35 Sacks.  His production Ratio was thus 2.13.  Take it for what it’s worth, the potential is there.  Thanks for taking the time to read this if you did.

[Moncrief]

Hmm that's an interesting correlation. Nice find

[Manning1887]

Jones is this year's Ty Powell. Powell seemed to be a favorite on this board last year leading up to the draft.

 

I would be all for drafting Jones in the 6th, but more likely the 7th round. Great athleticism and potential, plus the opportunity to learn from Robert Mathis (another small school gem).

[OffensivelyPC]

Jones is this year's Ty Powell. Powell seemed to be a favorite on this board last year leading up to the draft.

 

I would be all for drafting Jones in the 6th, but more likely the 7th round. Great athleticism and potential, plus the opportunity to learn from Robert Mathis (another small school gem).

I think it goes without saying that I'd prefer to draft him in the 7th.  It's really hard to predict where he would go.  I mean, once you get to the 5th round, it's really just a toss up, but even more so when you get to the 6th and 7th.  To me, these are the picks that you try to hit home runs with or look for solid depth and special teams guys. 

 

About a month and a half ago after the combine, he was projected as a 7th-UDFA.  Since the combine, I've seen him predicted as high as the 5th.  Clearly this kid is getting attention.  I can't say I'd take him in the 5th, but I would want to because of his potential.  It just depends on who's left.  I'd feel more comfortable drafting him in the 6th or later, but there's a chance he may not even be there then.  Who really knows at this point.

[Lucky87]

I'm likening what I'm seeing with this fellow

[Ram Tough]

Hey everyone.

 

I came across this post while searching the web for updates on Howard Jones. I'm a Shepherd graduate and huge fan of the football program. Yes, D2 programs have a few fans. 

 

Anyway, here's a link to more video on Howard. It has some measureables to the left that are somewhat inaccurate, especially the 40 time. In Jones' defense, he was timed by two different scouts in that range. That just goes to show that you can't trust those hand-timed numbers.

 

I hope you all enjoy the video. 

 

http://www.hudl.com/athlete/1917687/howard-jones

[OffensivelyPC]

Hey everyone.

 

I came across this post while searching the web for updates on Howard Jones. I'm a Shepherd graduate and huge fan of the football program. Yes, D2 programs have a few fans. 

 

Anyway, here's a link to more video on Howard. It has some measureables to the left that are somewhat inaccurate, especially the 40 time. In Jones' defense, he was timed by two different scouts in that range. That just goes to show that you can't trust those hand-timed numbers.

 

I hope you all enjoy the video. 

 

http://www.hudl.com/athlete/1917687/howard-jones

Hey thanks alot for this.  I'll have to give it a watch later on when I get home since my work computer won't let me play it and it's too slow on my employer provided sprint phone - good lord sprint is awful.   What's the buzz about him on campus (if you're around the area)? 

 

And with the hand times, you always got to take them with a grain of salt, especially when it's a prospect's pro day on his home campus.  Human error is always present.

 

EDIT:  Where's my manners?  Welcome to the boards.  Hope to see you around, but if you just stopped in the once for the Howard Jones article, it's still appreciated!

[Ram Tough]

I don't live close to campus anymore, but I have a few people up that way who are closer to that football program. 

 

Quite frankly, everyone is pumped about Howard Jones. The school hasn't had a player drafted since 1979 (Wayne Wilson, who had several productive seasons for the Saints). Shepherd has had a few undrafted free agents in the past, but the draft process is not something we usually get to enjoy in this manner.

 

There's been buzz that he could go as high as the 4th round, although I think that's a little optimistic. I'm thinking more in the 5th-6th round range. He visited with the Cardinals yesterday and will visit with the Cowboys tomorrow. Some other teams have already done their vetting process at the combine and a couple of pro days. He took part in WVU's pro day recently and Shepherd's pro day today.

 

It's also interesting to remember that when he came to Shepherd, he was about a 185-pound (give or take) WR. The problem was that he couldn't catch the ball well enough, so he began bulking up and became an edge rusher. He has gotten bigger every season, so I don't think adding 15 pounds to his frame will be that big of a deal. 

 

I can't remember what the videos all show, since I haven't watched them in a while, BUT he is a heck of a special teams player as well. He's had quite a few blocked FGs, PATs and punts in his career. 

[OffensivelyPC]

I don't live close to campus anymore, but I have a few people up that way who are closer to that football program. 

 

Quite frankly, everyone is pumped about Howard Jones. The school hasn't had a player drafted since 1979 (Wayne Wilson, who had several productive seasons for the Saints). Shepherd has had a few undrafted free agents in the past, but the draft process is not something we usually get to enjoy in this manner.

 

There's been buzz that he could go as high as the 4th round, although I think that's a little optimistic. I'm thinking more in the 5th-6th round range. He visited with the Cardinals yesterday and will visit with the Cowboys tomorrow. Some other teams have already done their vetting process at the combine and a couple of pro days. He took part in WVU's pro day recently and Shepherd's pro day today.

 

It's also interesting to remember that when he came to Shepherd, he was about a 185-pound (give or take) WR. The problem was that he couldn't catch the ball well enough, so he began bulking up and became an edge rusher. He has gotten bigger every season, so I don't think adding 15 pounds to his frame will be that big of a deal. 

 

I can't remember what the videos all show, since I haven't watched them in a while, BUT he is a heck of a special teams player as well. He's had quite a few blocked FGs, PATs and punts in his career. 

Yeah I knew he started out as a WR and then moved to the defensive side of the ball.  To my understanding, he was recruited by a couple of the D-1 Virginia schools like WVU and UVA, but didn't have the grades.  Unfortunate for him, but I'm sure it also came as a hard knock and had to get serious about school if he ever wanted to play at hte next level.  So I'm sure Shepherd was happy to have him. 

[Ram Tough]

Yeah I knew he started out as a WR and then moved to the defensive side of the ball.  To my understanding, he was recruited by a couple of the D-1 Virginia schools like WVU and UVA, but didn't have the grades.  Unfortunate for him, but I'm sure it also came as a hard knock and had to get serious about school if he ever wanted to play at hte next level.  So I'm sure Shepherd was happy to have him. 

 

Shepherd has a pretty good D2 football program. Sometimes, we get guys who didn't qualify academically. Sometimes, we get guys who transfer because they're tired of being buried on a D1 depth chart, although those guys are hit and miss to be honest. I can think of one instance where a RB came from WVU, and everyone was excited about him. Midway through the season, another guy on the roster replaced him on his way to a stellar collegiate career.

 

In Jones' case, it was academics. But he ended up at Shepherd and played great for four seasons. He's a disruptor. Although he doesn't always make the tackle, I can't count the number of times he just blew up a play or maybe forced the QB to get rid of the ball way too early. 

 

He likes playing downhill. You know ... "Get that guy with the ball." In those situations, he excels. I'll be interested to see him play in space, although I still think he'll start out as a rush LB. He didn't really drop back into pass coverage much in college that I can recall. So, I'm hoping he can adapt to that side of the NFL. 

[OffensivelyPC]

Shepherd has a pretty good D2 football program. Sometimes, we get guys who didn't qualify academically. Sometimes, we get guys who transfer because they're tired of being buried on a D1 depth chart, although those guys are hit and miss to be honest. I can think of one instance where a RB came from WVU, and everyone was excited about him. Midway through the season, another guy on the roster replaced him on his way to a stellar collegiate career.

 

In Jones' case, it was academics. But he ended up at Shepherd and played great for four seasons. He's a disruptor. Although he doesn't always make the tackle, I can't count the number of times he just blew up a play or maybe forced the QB to get rid of the ball way too early. 

 

He likes playing downhill. You know ... "Get that guy with the ball." In those situations, he excels. I'll be interested to see him play in space, although I still think he'll start out as a rush LB. He didn't really drop back into pass coverage much in college that I can recall. So, I'm hoping he can adapt to that side of the NFL. 

Yeah I watched film of the NFLPA game, he really does embody that "see the ball, get the ball" mentality.  It won't be enough for the NFL, but it's a coachable trait.  I think he can read and diagnose the play just fine, but he gets himself out of control at times and gets himself out of position to make the play at times - but at least he disrupts the play in doing so.  I see him as taking a year on the depths, improving his technique and gaining more control of both himself and the man he's up against.  He'd be an excellent rotational guy if he could accomplish those two things. 

 

As far as coverage, I agree with you - he's just not there yet.  But he does show fluidity at the waiste, even the rest of his body is out of control.  If he could bend at the hips a little bit better and keep his shoulders parallel to the ground I think that would help him tremendously in coverage.  He just always seems to have his head out too far over his body.

 

I wish I could stay longer and talk, but I've got to get home.  Appreciate the talk and hope to see you around more often.

[chad72]

Some guys can flat out make plays. If, for some reason Kevin Pierre-Louis of Boston College is there in our round 6 spot, I'd take him in a heartbeat. Instead of talking about scheme fit to ignore him, I'd think he'd make an excellent weakside LB and would be very good at defending TEs on pass downs. Our D needs playmakers period and he could be one.

 

In terms of OffensivelyPC's explosion index, I think Kevin Pierre-Louis would be way up there.

[Coffeedrinker]

Good stuff OPC.  Interesting break down of the explosion number and production number.  Maybe you should write to Kirwan and tell him to add the following to his production ratio.

 

((#Sacks+#TFL)/Games played)/Division Number.

 

So Jones would be ((65+35)/47)/2 = 1.07 ;)

 

Still a good number.  I like sleeper picks thanks for posting.

[OffensivelyPC]

Good stuff OPC.  Interesting break down of the explosion number and production number.  Maybe you should write to Kirwan and tell him to add the following to his production ratio.

 

((#Sacks+#TFL)/Games played)/Division Number.

 

So Jones would be ((65+35)/47)/2 = 1.07 ;)

 

Still a good number.  I like sleeper picks thanks for posting.

lol if it were only that easy... If I scouted for a living, I'd come up with my own formula.  Unfortunately, I don't have that kind of time...but man would I love scouting for a living.