NE-Den AFCCG looming large

[Shane Bond]

NE is playing like a playoff team ( surprises ).

 

If they don't give Belichick coach of the year ( he should get every year ) this year, its a bogus. With the decimated defense, you put a ping pong player he will coach him and make him effective.

 

On the other side, Broncos look absolutely clueless in defense. Their only pass rush ( Von Miller ) might be out for the season. If you dont pass rush Brady, he will pick you apart. Of course, their coaching is terrible as well.

 

Even though it would be in Denver, NE is playing well as a team. 

[Jules]

I would not pencil it in yet, the expected AFC title games almost never seem to happen in recent years. Last year many felt it was a given to be Brady vs. Manning. In 2007 many felt the same but SD spoiled the party (and ironically pass rush woes hurt that Colts team.....so we will see what the status is on Miller soon).

 

 

We could get Broncos and Pats but both teams can be had too and have weaknesses. It was just a week ago or so that everyone was in utter hysterics over the Broncos loss to the Chargers and the Pats losing in Miami.

[Shane Bond]

And there is the Colts

[Jules]

And there is the Colts

 

Ahhhh yes. Our young darling flippy boys in blue who always entertain.

[amfootball]

It is shaping up that the Colts will be the fourth seed and head to Denver in the divisional round as I expect the Colts to win WC over KC in Indy. I like the Colts to upset Denver. I see a Pats/Colts AFCCG. I think they are the two best teams with the most solid QBs. You could throw Cincy in there but I Dalton has not proved yet that he can win when the stakes get high.

[Shane Bond]

Colts-Pats could be a real possibility.

 

Just love the way the Colts play defense.

[danlhart87]

Here's how I see the AFC shaping up

 

1 Denver

2 New England

3 Indianapolis

4 Cincinnati

5 Kansas City

6 Miami

 

Dolphins at Colts Colts

Chiefs at Bengals Bengals

 

Bengals at Broncos Bengals

Colts at Patriots Patriots

 

Bengals at Patriots Patriots

[weslo1812]

Colts-Pats could be a real possibility.

Just love the way the Colts play defense.

That is when we decide to play defense. Thats our question is will come out playing that shut down D or the D where we look lost in the sauce and get shredded. Thats worry I have is we don't what were gonna get from them week to week. Same with the offense to really. I'm certainly hoping for the best though.

[oldunclemark]

I would not pencil it in yet, the expected AFC title games almost never seem to happen in recent years. Last year many felt it was a given to be Brady vs. Manning. In 2007 many felt the same but SD spoiled the party (and ironically pass rush woes hurt that Colts team.....so we will see what the status is on Miller soon).

 

 

We could get Broncos and Pats but both teams can be had too and have weaknesses. It was just a week ago or so that everyone was in utter hysterics over the Broncos loss to the Chargers and the Pats losing in Miami.

If Denver and NE get the byes.....

 

.....odds are its them....folks look at the exception (last season) rather than  the rule..

 

If you need one home win to get to the conference title game..odds are heavy that you will

[MaoBerry]

I predict...

 

That both denver and N.E. get bounced early, thus leading to a colts AFC championship home game (which we win and advance to the superbowl).

[Warhawk]

If Denver and NE get the byes.....

 

.....odds are its them....folks look at the exception (last season) rather than  the rule..

 

If you need one home win to get to the conference title game..odds are heavy that you will

 

Well, actually, last year, teams with byes were 3-1, it just so happens that the "1" ended up winning the Super Bowl.  Same thing in 2011.  In 2010, teams with byes were 2-2, and a team that played in the wild card round won the Super Bowl.  In 2009 they were 3-1 and a bye team won it, in 2008 they were 1-3 but the lone bye team won it, in 2007 they were 2-2 and a WC round team won it, in 2006 they were 2-2 and a WC round team won it, and in 2005 they were 2-2 and a WC round team won it.

 

Not sure how you mean that a single WC team winning in the divisional round last year is an exception to the "rule" that teams with byes generally make it to the conference title game, when in the last 8 years, the combined record of teams with byes in the divisional round is 18-14, and 7 of the 8 Super Bowls were won by teams who didn't get a bye (2008 Steelers were the only exception, and in that year they were the ONLY bye team that didn't go one-and-done).

[Jules]

If Denver and NE get the byes.....

 

.....odds are its them....folks look at the exception (last season) rather than  the rule..

 

If you need one home win to get to the conference title game..odds are heavy that you will

 

True, odds favor the bye week teams in both conferences.....ON PAPER. But, the parity of the league in recent years has caused more flippiness.

 

I might be wrong since I am going by memory only, but the only times Manning/Brady played each other in the AFCCG were when one or both did not have the bye weeks. 2006 neither had a bye. And in 2003 Pats had the first seed/Colts third.

 

In 2007 Pats/Colts had byes and everyone thought well it should be fun to see them play again in the AFCCG but then that punk Rivers shows up and he and his backup carve us up like a turkey while NE feasted on the slop known as the Jaguars.

 

Last year same story. How fun to see Brady and Manning meet up in the AFCCG. Oops....there goes Flacco heaving bombs down the field......

 

Besides, I have this hunch that if the Broncos offense blows it that it will be due to Welker. I can already see it now......all this rust from several weeks recovering from concussions and Manning goes to him in the clutch/Welker blows it and then NE twitter/facebook accounts are on overdrive for several hours. And a bonus shadow shot of Elway during the game from up above.

 

And if NE blows it the injury excuses are already there for the season along with Hernandez etc. etc.

 

And if we blow it nobody really cares since well not too many seem to think the Colts are going on a serious long run outside of Colts fans like myself who drink a lot of blueberry flavored koolaid and think we are the best. After the Wayne injury it seems we went from contenders in people's minds to pretenders but I think some young guys are stepping up and if they can keep it up in the playoffs we are the dark horse.

 

Cincy and "others"......have to wait and see. Recent history does not seem to truly favor them but there is a first time for everything too.....

[braveheartcolt]

The Patriots, with or without Hernandez still have a decent 'shot' at it.

[amfootball]

The Patriots, with or without Hernandez still have a decent 'shot' at it.

Yes, everyone does. The AFC is so open this year with no real dominant D so even average Os can put up points.

[Blue Horseshoe]

It is shaping up that the Colts will be the fourth seed and head to Denver in the divisional round as I expect the Colts to win WC over KC in Indy. I like the Colts to upset Denver. I see a Pats/Colts AFCCG. I think they are the two best teams with the most solid QBs. You could throw Cincy in there but I Dalton has not proved yet that he can win when the stakes get high.

 

Please tell me that this is meant as some kind of joke.

[amfootball]

Please tell me that this is meant as some kind of joke.

Who would you put as better teams with the same caliber of QB? I don't trust Dalton or Smith. And Manning has a horrid defense.

[-JJ-]

True, odds favor the bye week teams in both conferences.....ON PAPER. But, the parity of the league in recent years has caused more flippiness.

 

I might be wrong since I am going by memory only, but the only times Manning/Brady played each other in the AFCCG were when one or both did not have the bye weeks. 2006 neither had a bye. And in 2003 Pats had the first seed/Colts third.

 

In 2007 Pats/Colts had byes and everyone thought well it should be fun to see them play again in the AFCCG but then that punk Rivers shows up and he and his backup carve us up like a turkey while NE feasted on the slop known as the Jaguars.

 

Last year same story. How fun to see Brady and Manning meet up in the AFCCG. Oops....there goes Flacco heaving bombs down the field......

 

Besides, I have this hunch that if the Broncos offense blows it that it will be due to Welker. I can already see it now......all this rust from several weeks recovering from concussions and Manning goes to him in the clutch/Welker blows it and then NE twitter/facebook accounts are on overdrive for several hours. And a bonus shadow shot of Elway during the game from up above.

 

And if NE blows it the injury excuses are already there for the season along with Hernandez etc. etc.

 

And if we blow it nobody really cares since well not too many seem to think the Colts are going on a serious long run outside of Colts fans like myself who drink a lot of blueberry flavored koolaid and think we are the best. After the Wayne injury it seems we went from contenders in people's minds to pretenders but I think some young guys are stepping up and if they can keep it up in the playoffs we are the dark horse.

 

Cincy and "others"......have to wait and see. Recent history does not seem to truly favor them but there is a first time for everything too.....

lol. Some nice funny dig lines in that post. Well done ;)  I particularly like the "Flacco" bombs. The Patriot injury excuse was good too. Heck they are were. Maybe you should apply to ESPN as a writer.

[oldunclemark]

Well, actually, last year, teams with byes were 3-1, it just so happens that the "1" ended up winning the Super Bowl.  Same thing in 2011.  In 2010, teams with byes were 2-2, and a team that played in the wild card round won the Super Bowl.  In 2009 they were 3-1 and a bye team won it, in 2008 they were 1-3 but the lone bye team won it, in 2007 they were 2-2 and a WC round team won it, in 2006 they were 2-2 and a WC round team won it, and in 2005 they were 2-2 and a WC round team won it.

 

Not sure how you mean that a single WC team winning in the divisional round last year is an exception to the "rule" that teams with byes generally make it to the conference title game, when in the last 8 years, the combined record of teams with byes in the divisional round is 18-14, and 7 of the 8 Super Bowls were won by teams who didn't get a bye (2008 Steelers were the only exception, and in that year they were the ONLY bye team that didn't go one-and-done).

But you are citing the past to argue against logic..

 

 

Don't over think it...you don't WANT to play on the road in the post-season..

 

All teams post-season  road records are worse than their post-season home records...all of them..without exception.

 

So One home game to get to the AFC final is better than all other scenarios.

 

It doesn't matter who the teams are....

 

One home game to reach the final is what you hope for....

[Warhawk]

But you are citing the past to argue against logic..

 

 

Don't over think it...you don't WANT to play on the road in the post-season..

 

All teams post-season  road records are worse than their post-season home records...all of them..without exception.

 

So One home game to get to the AFC final is better than all other scenarios.

 

It doesn't matter who the teams are....

 

One home game to reach the final is what you hope for....

 

I'm not arguing that I wouldn't rather have my team get a bye, I'm just pointing out that, factually, you were wrong when you said that a wild card team winning in the divisional round last year was an "exception" to the rule.  Besides, you were the one who brought up last year as being an "exception" to the rule, so I'm not sure why I'm not allowed to cite the past when you're making a fairly basic (and somewhat wrong) assumption about past events to support your point.  7 of the last 8 years a team without a bye won the Super Bowl, and in 5 of those 8 years at least 2 teams without a bye made it to the conference championship.  Just because it seems logical to you that 1 and 2 seeds winning should be the "rule" because they're good teams playing at home doesn't mean that's how it actually happens.  Last year's Ravens were in no way whatsoever a statistical outlier.

 

Fact is that, particularly in recent times, bye teams have only enjoyed a slight advantage over their opponents in the divisional round (18-14, which is pretty much dead-on what the NFL's home field winning percentage is in general, suggesting that bye teams are no better in quality than wild card teams, or else they would outperform the league-wide rate at which home teams win).  But, obviously, that doesn't mean you don't want a bye, because even if you assumed the winning percentage was 50% for each team in each game, that means that each bye team has a 50% chance of making the conference championship, whereas each wild card team would have a 25% chance of making the conference championship.  So an individual bye team has a substantial advantage over any individual non-bye team, and thus a conference championship pitting the bye teams against each other is substantially more likely than any other particular matchup, BUT that doesn't mean that it's likely against the field.  In fact, taking that 18-14 recent record of bye teams against non-bye teams in the divisional round, there is a roughly 31.6% chance the AFC Championship is Broncos vs. Patriots.