TY Hilton more efficient wideout than Wayne?

[chad72]

It's nice to know that even though I've been away a while (I've been busier than a one arm paper hanger as the saying goes) that things don't change.

 

Why are people equating "efficiency" and "better".  The numbers are not stating that Hilton is a better WR than Wayne, it's a group of calculations to produce statistics that look at, was the receiver thrown the ball and what did he do with it after.  The higher DYAR does not mean better, just more efficient.  And in this calc the two big things that lowered Wayne's numbers was the TDs.  In 196 passes he had 5 TDs.  In 90 TDs Hilton had 6 TDs. And the DVOA.  I'm not sure why Wayne would have a DVOA in the negatives and Hilton's being a +10%.

 

I must admit, I was a bit skeptical of Hilton, he seemed to have talent but I thought it would take him a  couple of years to adjust to the speed of the game.  But he had a fantastic rookie season, his numbers compare favorably to Harrison's.  And yes I'm comparing him to Harrison because they are similar type receivers, Marvin was better in and out of his breaks than Hilton but Hilton has a better 2nd gear than Harrison.

 

But when comparing Wayne and Hilton they have different roles in the O.  Wayne is the workhorse, he's going to get the passes to move the chains or the 5-8 yard pass on 2nd down to make a manageable 3rd down.  Hilton is the big play guy.  So when you look at something like this stat, did the ball get thrown to him and what did he do with it of course Hilton is going to be more efficient but that does not mean better.

 

WELCOME BACK, WELCOME BACK, CD!!! Good to see ya!!!

[BOTT]

Football outsiders doesn't take into account other factors. Prior to this season one of their dopes went on the radio multiple times and claimed Peyton Manning has been in decline since 2006 and people shouldn't expect a big year from him.

[Dustin]

Why are you guys using something other than PFF anyway?

[BrentMc11]

It's nice to know that even though I've been away a while (I've been busier than a one arm paper hanger as the saying goes) that things don't change.

We don't change just to irritate you and your identical twin brother dgambill!  

 

We just figured you ran out of coffee and were farming in Brazil...for some of the finest beans....

 

Anyway...welcome back...have some more coffee...you seem grumpy....

[Coffeedrinker]

WELCOME BACK, WELCOME BACK, CD!!! Good to see ya!!!

 

 

We don't change just to irritate you and your identical twin brother dgambill!  

 

We just figured you ran out of coffee and were farming in Brazil...for some of the finest beans....

 

Anyway...welcome back...have some more coffee...you seem grumpy....

Thanks guys.  And Brent, Kona coffee is my forte, so I went to Hawaii to grow some beans. ;).

 

And I'm not grumpy.... no more than usual at least.

[BrentMc11]

Thanks guys.  And Brent, Kona coffee is my forte, so I went to Hawaii to grow some beans. ;).

 

And I'm not grumpy.... no more than usual at least.

Good stuff Coffee....seriously glad to have another knowledgeable poster back on board!!!  I need a Hawaiian vacation for sure....

[Larry Horseman]

Football outsiders doesn't take into account other factors. Prior to this season one of their dopes went on the radio multiple times and claimed Peyton Manning has been in decline since 2006 and people shouldn't expect a big year from him.

 

Statistically PM had is best years from 04-06. From 07-10, he regressed back to his earlier career numbers. There are many factors associated with this, but it is not inaccurate to suggest that PM declined from his 06 production. In fact, it was true. Regardless of this regression, he was still one of the best QBs in the game...

[BOTT]

Statistically PM had is best years from 04-06. From 07-10, he regressed back to his earlier career numbers. There are many factors associated with this, but it is not inaccurate to suggest that PM declined from his 06 production. In fact, it was true. Regardless of this regression, he was still one of the best QBs in the game...

It wasn't true. Just because his stats went doesn't mean he was declining as a QB. I would argue his best season was 09

[southwest1]

It's nice to know that even though I've been away a while (I've been busier than a one arm paper hanger as the saying goes) that things don't change.

 

Why are people equating "efficiency" and "better".  The numbers are not stating that Hilton is a better WR than Wayne, it's a group of calculations to produce statistics that look at, was the receiver thrown the ball and what did he do with it after.  The higher DYAR does not mean better, just more efficient.  And in this calc the two big things that lowered Wayne's numbers was the TDs.  In 196 passes he had 5 TDs.  In 90 TDs Hilton had 6 TDs. And the DVOA.  I'm not sure why Wayne would have a DVOA in the negatives and Hilton's being a +10%.

 

I must admit, I was a bit skeptical of Hilton, he seemed to have talent but I thought it would take him a  couple of years to adjust to the speed of the game.  But he had a fantastic rookie season, his numbers compare favorably to Harrison's.  And yes I'm comparing him to Harrison because they are similar type receivers, Marvin was better in and out of his breaks than Hilton but Hilton has a better 2nd gear than Harrison.

 

But when comparing Wayne and Hilton they have different roles in the O.  Wayne is the workhorse, he's going to get the passes to move the chains or the 5-8 yard pass on 2nd down to make a manageable 3rd down.  Hilton is the big play guy.  So when you look at something like this stat, did the ball get thrown to him and what did he do with it of course Hilton is going to be more efficient but that does not mean better.

A nice response there CD   I ran out of likes. And just to echo the sentiments of several others on the forum welcome back! 

 

 

Efficient: “Able to function well & achieve a desired result without waste.” [Proficiency at a specific technique.]

 

Better: “An action or skill that is superior in comparison to someone else or something usually due to experience or an innate natural gift.” [A point of reference/contrast between to things.]