Lets try to employ some logic to trading draft picks

[Crunked]

A team will typically trade up if they have a "glaring" need, typically singular. Typically a team with lots of needs (like the Colts) don't give up the now for just 1 marquee player unless its a sure fire lock at QB. We have a QB so that is not us. Lets look at what giving up draft picks for anyone would really mean to the Colts.

 

We need starters at:

 

WR-if we do not sign Avery and Collie

LG

RG

RT

OLB-if we dont sign Freeney

NT-dont have one on the roster

LDE-to line up opposite Redding

CB #2 -if we dont resign Butler, Powers, Vaughn

CB #3

CB #4

S-If we dont retain Zibby

 

That is 11draft picks there (yes I know we may sign some free agents this year, maybe 1 or 2 blue collar guys next year but I dont see us getting more than (3) starters this year and that would be a banner Free agency in my book we ain't the Skins who sign our team from others cast offs.

 

So that illustrates the need for 8 picks right there, BUT there is more.

 

We need the following going beyond this year

 

WR-to groom as eventual Reggie Replacement

RB-to spell work in tandem with Ballard

LG-back up

RG-back up

RT back up

(2) OLB back ups 1 to groom to replace mathis as he is getting older

1-2 DB back ups for injury fill in for all those starters

3 safeties one to groom for Bethea's eventual replacement he is getting older

K-Vinateri probably wont go beyond his current contract with the Colts

 

So in the next 2 seasons we need 21 players to build a FULL roster with starters and back ups......If you get 5 free agents that are starting caliber out of those two years (grigson would be a genius)

You could find a couple jewels in the rough in UFA's (grigson would be a genius)

You still need 14 players 1 of which is of starting caliber.

 

Hitting on 14 draft picks in 2 years would be miraculous 3-5 is considered a "good draft" so lets split the baby and say Grigs hits on 4 this year as starters, and 4 next year (grigson would be genius)

 

that still leaves us 2 players short of trading away picks for superstars....and thats with Grigs hitting a homerun in every phase of GM'ing.....even if you agree his is good the odds arent likely that, that will happen.

 

So you can argue #'s here or positions, but suffice it to say we need a lot and we can't get it all in one off season, and until we need a little trading away draft picks just to get a "name" or marquee college kid makes no sense to me.

[Gavin]

A team will typically trade up if they have a "glaring" need, typically singular. Typically a team with lots of needs (like the Colts) don't give up the now for just 1 marquee player unless its a sure fire lock at QB. We have a QB so that is not us. Lets look at what giving up draft picks for anyone would really mean to the Colts.

 

We need starters at:

 

WR-if we do not sign Avery and Collie

LG

RG

RT

OLB-if we dont sign Freeney

NT-dont have one on the roster

LDE-to line up opposite Redding

CB #2 -if we dont resign Butler, Powers, Vaughn

CB #3

CB #4

S-If we dont retain Zibby

 

That is 11draft picks there (yes I know we may sign some free agents this year, maybe 1 or 2 blue collar guys next year but I dont see us getting more than (3) starters this year and that would be a banner Free agency in my book we ain't the Skins who sign our team from others cast offs.

 

So that illustrates the need for 8 picks right there, BUT there is more.

 

We need the following going beyond this year

 

WR-to groom as eventual Reggie Replacement

RB-to spell work in tandem with Ballard

LG-back up

RG-back up

RT back up

(2) OLB back ups 1 to groom to replace mathis as he is getting older

1-2 DB back ups for injury fill in for all those starters

3 safeties one to groom for Bethea's eventual replacement he is getting older

K-Vinateri probably wont go beyond his current contract with the Colts

 

So in the next 2 seasons we need 21 players to build a FULL roster with starters and back ups......If you get 5 free agents that are starting caliber out of those two years (grigson would be a genius)

You could find a couple jewels in the rough in UFA's (grigson would be a genius)

You still need 14 players 1 of which is of starting caliber.

 

Hitting on 14 draft picks in 2 years would be miraculous 3-5 is considered a "good draft" so lets split the baby and say Grigs hits on 4 this year as starters, and 4 next year (grigson would be genius)

 

that still leaves us 2 players short of trading away picks for superstars....and thats with Grigs hitting a homerun in every phase of GM'ing.....even if you agree his is good the odds arent likely that, that will happen.

 

So you can argue #'s here or positions, but suffice it to say we need a lot and we can't get it all in one off season, and until we need a little trading away draft picks just to get a "name" or marquee college kid makes no sense to me.

WR.Hilton has a good chance to be our #2 next year after the performance he put on his rookie year, in the late rounds of the draft this year (5.6,7th we can draft a tall wr with good hands and groom him, Marquess Colston turned out to be an excellent 7th round draft choice so I know it can happen especially if you have a very good QB to get him the ball)

 

RB-If Brown does not return to full strength then we will need a RB but if he comes back strong we wont have a need for one

 

LG-Louis Vasquez- would fit our scheme well if he is a fundamentally sound player, he certainly has the strength

 

RG-Travis Frederick or Larry Warford through the draft would fit this scheme well through the draft

 

RT-Phillip Loadholt is a road grader at RT

 

OLB-Brandon Jenkins, Alex Okafor, Jaimie Collins, Chase Thomas (Although I expect them last two to fit much better into the Robert Mathis role but Hughes did  well in that role despite being a rotated in and out most of the year so not sure I would pursuit them (which would also eliminate the need for Mathis backup

 

NT-Chapman and we can (possibly)get Kwame Geather in the late rounds, also Antonio Johnson would be fine as Chapmans backup if Chapman ever gets healthy (I have my doubts about that one now)

 

LDE-Joe Vellano, Margus Hunt, Joe Kruger could all challenge for backup to Redding and start even

 

 

we can get a kicker when Adam V retires through FA

 

Safety-Laron Landry, Baccari Rambo, Shawn Williams, Robert Lester. Only need 1 right now

[FightLikeSin]

NT-Chapman and we can (possibly)get Kwame Geather in the late rounds, also Antonio Johnson would be fine as Chapmans backup if Chapman ever gets healthy (I have my doubts about that one now)

 

Also, Brandon McKinney is still under contract for next season. Loosing Johnson to free agency seems likely with having two NTs who are just as serviceable or better. 

 

What concerns you with Chapmans health? He's been cleared.

[Gavin]

Also, Brandon McKinney is still under contract for next season. Loosing Johnson to free agency seems likely with having two NTs who are just as serviceable or better. 

Mckinney played on skates, plus 345lbs with a knee injury, Im not saying he cant comeback obviously but he is a BIG man with a knee injury, I also think Johnson outplayed Tevasue, Johnson did not necessarily draw more blocks but he made plays while getting blocked 1 on 1 sometimes plus he is faster then I thought, regardless who we keep or let go we need a starting NT

[FightLikeSin]

Mckinney played on skates, plus 345lbs with a knee injury, Im not saying he cant comeback obviously but he is a BIG man with a knee injury, I also think Johnson outplayed Tevasue, Johnson did not necessarily draw more blocks but he made plays while getting blocked 1 on 1 sometimes plus he is faster then I thought, regardless who we keep or let go we need a starting NT

 

I wasn't impressed with Johnson. Never commanded a double team, got put on his back more than I expected. I think Chapman will be fine and I still think McKinney is a fine solution for a backup.  But for depth, Spending a 5th or 6th wouldn't be bad. I like Montari Hughes late in the draft.

[Jason_]

WR.Hilton has a good chance to be our #2 next year after the performance he put on his rookie year, in the late rounds of the draft this year (5.6,7th we can draft a tall wr with good hands and groom him, Marquess Colston turned out to be an excellent 7th round draft choice so I know it can happen especially if you have a very good QB to get him the ball)

 

RB-If Brown does not return to full strength then we will need a RB but if he comes back strong we wont have a need for one

 

LG-Louis Vasquez- would fit our scheme well if he is a fundamentally sound player, he certainly has the strength

 

RG-Travis Frederick or Larry Warford through the draft would fit this scheme well through the draft

 

RT-Phillip Loadholt is a road grader at RT

 

OLB-Brandon Jenkins, Alex Okafor, Jaimie Collins, Chase Thomas (Although I expect them last two to fit much better into the Robert Mathis role but Hughes did  well in that role despite being a rotated in and out most of the year so not sure I would pursuit them (which would also eliminate the need for Mathis backup

 

NT-Chapman and we can (possibly)get Kwame Geather in the late rounds, also Antonio Johnson would be fine as Chapmans backup if Chapman ever gets healthy (I have my doubts about that one now)

 

LDE-Joe Vellano, Margus Hunt, Joe Kruger could all challenge for backup to Redding and start even

 

 

we can get a kicker when Adam V retires through FA

 

Safety-Laron Landry, Baccari Rambo, Shawn Williams, Robert Lester. Only need 1 right now

 

 

Joe Kruger and Margus Hunt would likely have to bulk up quite a bit to be able to handle either DE spot in a 2-gap 3-4 system.  Yes they are both in the 275-280 lb range, but they're also both incredibly tall...Hunt being 6'8" and Kruger being 6'7".  At that height and weight, they'd both be better suited at OLB in our scheme imo.  If they were to go to a 1-gap 3-4 team like the Texans then they could possibly play DE, but in a 2-gap I don't see them being very effective.

 

I agree with you about NT though.  Personally I hope we re-sign Johnson and cut Tevaseu.  Chapman, Johnson and McKinney could be quite a formidable trio, especially if we could also use Johnson at 3-4 DE, and he was showing improvement playing DT in the 4 man front and getting pressure on the QB.  I really hope we keep him.

 

If they're not sure about McKinney returning to full health then they could keep Tevaseu around, or (my preference) take a guy like Kwame Geathers in a later round.  I definitely don't want to take a NT in the 1st or 3rd round unless they can also provide a solid and consistent pass rush.

[Gavin]

Joe Kruger and Margus Hunt would likely have to bulk up quite a bit to be able to handle either DE spot in a 2-gap 3-4 system.  Yes they are both in the 275-280 lb range, but they're also both incredibly tall...Hunt being 6'8" and Kruger being 6'7".  At that height and weight, they'd both be better suited at OLB in our scheme imo.  If they were to go to a 1-gap 3-4 team like the Texans then they could possibly play DE, but in a 2-gap I don't see them being very effective.

 

I agree with you about NT though.  Personally I hope we re-sign Johnson and cut Tevaseu.  Chapman, Johnson and McKinney could be quite a formidable trio, especially if we could also use Johnson at 3-4 DE, and he was showing improvement playing DT in the 4 man front and getting pressure on the QB.  I really hope we keep him.

 

If they're not sure about McKinney returning to full health then they could keep Tevaseu around, or (my preference) take a guy like Kwame Geathers in a later round.  I definitely don't want to take a NT in the 1st or 3rd round unless they can also provide a solid and consistent pass rush.

Nope certainly not going to draft a NT in the first

 

Joe Kruger and Margus Hunt would likely have to bulk up quite a bit to be able to handle either DE spot in a 2-gap 3-4 system.  Yes they are both in the 275-280 lb range, but they're also both incredibly tall...Hunt being 6'8" and Kruger being 6'7".  At that height and weight, they'd both be better suited at OLB in our scheme imo.  If they were to go to a 1-gap 3-4 team like the Texans then they could possibly play DE, but in a 2-gap I don't see them being very effective.

 

I agree with you about NT though.  Personally I hope we re-sign Johnson and cut Tevaseu.  Chapman, Johnson and McKinney could be quite a formidable trio, especially if we could also use Johnson at 3-4 DE, and he was showing improvement playing DT in the 4 man front and getting pressure on the QB.  I really hope we keep him.

 

If they're not sure about McKinney returning to full health then they could keep Tevaseu around, or (my preference) take a guy like Kwame Geathers in a later round.  I definitely don't want to take a NT in the 1st or 3rd round unless they can also provide a solid and consistent pass rush.

what do ya think about Joe Vellano.....heck of a motor and good tackler, I think he could play all along the D Line

[Jason_]

Nope certainly not going to draft a NT in the first

 

what do ya think about Joe Vellano.....heck of a motor and good tackler, I think he could play all along the D Line

 

Based on Vellano's body type, he'd probably be more suited for the DL.  He looks kinda like a Lawrence Guy type.  Never seen him play though so couldn't comment on how well I think he could or would do.

[Gavin]

Based on Vellano's body type, he'd probably be more suited for the DL.  He looks kinda like a Lawrence Guy type.  Never seen him play though so couldn't comment on how well I think he could or would do.

 

 

Joe Vellano highlights (Maryland moved to a 3-4 this season)

 

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/joe-vellano-1.html

[Gavin]

I think he could be one of them players that can play in multiple fronts, 3-4, 4-3 wherever

[NewColtsFan]

Saw one report on Vellano that referenced him as 6'2" and 280....

 

If that's accurate -- and I have no idea if it is -- then it strikes me as too small for our system. 

[illdubb]

Cinci has two second round picks at their disposal, and should one of their targets fall to 24; Do we trade down for one of their 2nd round and a possible third? 

[John Dee]

Both....    and I would do it..

Cinci has two second round picks at their disposal, and should one of their targets fall to 24; Do we trade down for one of their 2nd round and a possible third? 

[illdubb]

Both....    and I would do it..

 

Same here, the first three rounds are capable of filling much of our needs on both sides of the ball. 

[Jason_]

Saw one report on Vellano that referenced him as 6'2" and 280....

 

If that's accurate -- and I have no idea if it is -- then it strikes me as too small for our system. 

 

that's very possible, but he could bulk up a little bit and then be able to play the 5tech in our scheme.  He'd get to the right strength and bulk much quicker than a guy who's 6'8" and the same weight.   

 

that's not to say though that Vellano is the best fit we could find for 5tech.  There likely are guys with talent who already have the right strength and bulk to play that position.

[Crunked]

trading slightly back to gain an extra pick is something I could get behind.....We did great this year performance wise, but I think everyone is getting excited and losing sight of the fact that we have a lot of  legit needs.....I like where you guys are going with this thread!

[Crunked]

Also, Brandon McKinney is still under contract for next season. Loosing Johnson to free agency seems likely with having two NTs who are just as serviceable or better. 

 

What concerns you with Chapmans health? He's been cleared.

I like the "possibilities of both Chapman and McKinney here.....but I like to err on the side of caution both will be coming of serious knee injuries.......so I cautiously say we have no one, maybe we have everyone, but it cant hurt to consider the worst and hope for the best (ps. I know you didnt ask me LOL......but I didnt really say why I listed NT as a need) 

[NewColtsFan]

Right now out of the first three rounds,  we have two picks, a 1 and a 3....

 

I'm curious where the strength of this draft is?    Both NFL.com and Scouts Inc seem to believe there are more quality 2nd and 3rd round players than there are picks.    Meaning, in those two rounds, you're going to have roughly 64 players taken (a few more with 3rd round supplemental players)....   but, if there are 75-85 players with 2nd/3rd round grades,  then it may be in the Colts interest to trade back...

 

Trade the one for a 2/3 and something...

 

Then, we'd have a 2 and two-3's....    3 quality players instead of two... 

 

Hope I haven't lost anyone,  this is all a bit convoluted.    But I'm very interested in this concept, and I think it will come down to who's available on draft night when Goodell says "the Colts are on the clock..."    If someone we love has fallen to us,  then we pull the trigger right there.     But if a number of players we love are still there, then perhaps we trade back and find one of those players at the top of the 2nd round while gaining more picks....

 

OK....    that's enough for one post....

[illdubb]

Right now out of the first three rounds,  we have two picks, a 1 and a 3....

 

I'm curious where the strength of this draft is?    Both NFL.com and Scouts Inc seem to believe there are more quality 2nd and 3rd round players than there are picks.    Meaning, in those two rounds, you're going to have roughly 64 players taken (a few more with 3rd round supplemental players)....   but, if there are 75-85 players with 2nd/3rd round grades,  then it may be in the Colts interest to trade back...

 

Trade the one for a 2/3 and something...

 

Then, we'd have a 2 and two-3's....    3 quality players instead of two... 

 

Hope I haven't lost anyone,  this is all a bit convoluted.    But I'm very interested in this concept, and I think it will come down to who's available on draft night when Goodell says "the Colts are on the clock..."    If someone we love has fallen to us,  then we pull the trigger right there.     But if a number of players we love are still there, then perhaps we trade back and find one of those players at the top of the 2nd round while gaining more picks....

 

OK....    that's enough for one post....

 

Yep, think you covered both my last two posts on this thread. 

[FightLikeSin]

I like the "possibilities of both Chapman and McKinney here.....but I like to err on the side of caution both will be coming of serious knee injuries.......so I cautiously say we have no one, maybe we have everyone, but it cant hurt to consider the worst and hope for the best (ps. I know you didnt ask me LOL......but I didnt really say why I listed NT as a need) 

lol. I understand your view point and honestly it was really my only big objection to your post was that we had "don't have one on the roster". After reading the press releases from Grigson and Arians when Chapman was cleared for practice, they said he was doing well and giving Satele a hard time (for whatever thats worth). Either way, sounds like they know he's gonna be pretty good and just didn't want to risk any further injury or re-injury to the knee. Can we still pick up another NT in the offseason? Absolutely. I love me some depth.

[Balzer40]

lol. I understand your view point and honestly it was really my only big objection to your post was that we had "don't have one on the roster". After reading the press releases from Grigson and Arians when Chapman was cleared for practice, they said he was doing well and giving Satele a hard time (for whatever thats worth). Either way, sounds like they know he's gonna be pretty good and just didn't want to risk any further injury or re-injury to the knee. Can we still pick up another NT in the offseason? Absolutely. I love me some depth.

 

 

 

I think we'll be fine at NT with Chapman and McKinney. I also think we may bring back Teveseu who IMO done a very good job when he was in the game. He is not a penetrator, but then again, that is not his job. He stood very strong against double teams and allowed the LBer to make a play which is exactly what he is supposed to do. i do not know what people were watching when they say he didn't do a good job. For a 3rd guy on the depth chart, he would be very respectable.

[Jason_]

I think we'll be fine at NT with Chapman and McKinney. I also think we may bring back Teveseu who IMO done a very good job when he was in the game. He is not a penetrator, but then again, that is not his job. He stood very strong against double teams and allowed the LBer to make a play which is exactly what he is supposed to do. i do not know what people were watching when they say he didn't do a good job. For a 3rd guy on the depth chart, he would be very respectable.

 

Tevaseu would be a decent 3rd option, but I'd much rather keep AJ and let Tevaseu go, if we could re-sign AJ for the right money.  I think AJ has a bit more versatility in that i think he can play anywhere on the DL in a 3 man front or as NT or UT in a 4 man front and still get penetration into the backfield.  I do believe AJ very consistently outplayed Tevaseu this past year.

[Balzer40]

Tevaseu would be a decent 3rd option, but I'd much rather keep AJ and let Tevaseu go, if we could re-sign AJ for the right money.  I think AJ has a bit more versatility in that i think he can play anywhere on the DL in a 3 man front or as NT or UT in a 4 man front and still get penetration into the backfield.  I do believe AJ very consistently outplayed Tevaseu this past year.

 

 

I don't completely disagree with what you're saying, but I think they are just different type of players. AJ IMO is a 4-3 DT, where he can get more penetration where as Teveseu is a true NT type,  he is stronger at the point of attack and does better against double teams IMO. AJ done better than I thought he would as a NT and he is a little more versatile, but I do think Teveseu done a pretty good job and is stronger than AJ.

[Jason_]

I don't completely disagree with what you're saying, but I think they are just different type of players. AJ IMO is a 4-3 DT, where he can get more penetration where as Teveseu is a true NT type,  he is stronger at the point of attack and does better against double teams IMO. AJ done better than I thought he would as a NT and he is a little more versatile, but I do think Teveseu done a pretty good job and is stronger than AJ.

 

In all honesty, I thought AJ even outperformed Tevaseu at NT as well.  I will say that I thought the difference was pretty significant early in the year, but Tevaseu did get better later in the year so the gap did close towards the end of the year.  

 

I do agree they are different types of players, but if we had to choose between them I would personally choose AJ for his versatility and I think he would be very good as a 2nd or even 3rd string NT if something happened to Chapman and McKinney.  Plus he would be able to be in the rotation at 3 and 5 tech, which could be very handy due to recent injury history of Nevis and Moala.

 

I would really like to see what the 3 man front of Redding, Chapman and AJ could do, especially on early and/or run downs.  

[Carlos Danger]

I don't think we will trade away any picks... if anything we trade down for more picks... I also think your assessment of the team is a bit pessimistic... if I am reading correctly you are saying we need to pick up a starting NT and 3 starters at corner... We can most likely do without a new NT and grab 2 corners (if not one plus resigns)...

The back ups for the O-line are most likely already on the team, with the notable exception of Justice, who we might resign... and It shouldn't be difficult to find back-ups at the other positions you mentioned... they are back-ups, after all

 

We do not have to have all-world players at every position... we should fix the most glaring needs (OG, CB, OLB) first and roll the dice on some of our young guys who were hurt this year or otherwise didn't get a chance to really prove themselves... (Nevis, Chapman, Ijalana, Anderson, Palmer) I agree that trading away picks is not the path we should take, but at least a couple of those guys we have stashed are going to pan out in a big way and I am going to trust the F.O. to figure out who they are.

[Crunked]

The original premise of this thread has come and gone. It was basically to try and illustrate to those on the forums who are quick to trade away picks for the latest (fill in the blank shutdown player) I am hopefully both Chapman AND McKinney make full recoveries and are serviceable or better for a long time. The fact is, with this whole list. I tried to look at it from a F. O. point of view (sure I dont have the inside knowledge they do but still try to think like they might) so having said that, ANYONE coming off a serious injury in the case of NT's knee injuries I would still cautiously tag that as a need Either player could have a repeat injury ala Ben Ijalana, and in Chapmans case he looks like a beast in practice but hasn't played a single NFL snap, so I dont think I have to illustrate the point of work out darling (not that I "think" he is, but if I am GM I cant "count" on him not being until he actually hits the field) 

 

I would be fine with keeping Justice as a back up, but he's injury prone and doesnt hold up against elite rushers consistently enough for my liking.

 

Folks saying Donald Brown is serviceable are right, but are we re-signing him for "serviceable" ? I wouldn't as a GM.

 

Darius Butler and Jerraud Powers resigned as #3 and #4 CB's........maybe, but Powers even with injuries might get a "shot" to start and prove he can be healthy with a 4-3 defense so I cant guarantee he is going to accept my low ball long term offer that is pay per play incentive laiden to play in a man on man system that he struggled with.

 

and yes OL back ups, some might say back ups in general are easy to find, but you cant find them all in UFA, the CFL or in trades so at some point some latter round draft picks will be expended on them....again making the point that trading away picks is not a good idea for the Colts..........

 

And in the for what its worth.....Ben Ijalana looked like a starting guard in the brief moments he had both knees but I am not counting on him ever playing NFL ball again, as this pretend GM's approach is, if it turns out he can play and contribute like the NT's mentioned above, then whoo hoo for me LOL