Double A Breakdown: Week 5

[Andy]

The Colts are coming off their bye week fresh but without their head coach, who was diagnosed with leukemia. This will be their first game without him, and it's not an easy test as the face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

What the Colts Need to do to Win

Let's start with the offense.

Andrew Luck... He's had two good games against the Vikings and the Jaguars, but his decision making isn't always great. He forces a lot of throws, especially on third down, most of the time to Reggie Wayne. You don't think the defense prepares for that? He has to be smarter with the ball, because a turnover against the Packers could cost you the game. They have tons of ball hawks on this team, more than any other team they've faced this year. This game, he shouldn't try to take too many shots, he should try to take as much time off the clock. That means throwing short passes to Reggie and TY. Keep Rodgers off the field. Finally, his awareness must be there against the Packers. Clay Matthews is going 150% each play and will not stop until the whistle goes. He's crazy. He has to watch out for him in the backfield, because the second he sees Matthews or someone else get in the backfield, that's his cue to start running or roll out.

The running backs must be productive. The Colts should try to run a balanced offense because the Packers are pretty good when the offense goes pass heavy. Running a balanced offense with a running game means that Rodgers stays off the field, and the Colts can effectively move the ball. Donald Brown must have at least 17 rushes and at least 4 yards per carry.

As for the receivers, they'll probably pay a lot of attention on Reggie Wayne which means that Donnie Avery and TY Hilton must step up. Avery has shown that he could be a possesion receiver, as we saw in the Vikings game. Coby Fleener also must have a good game. He should see a good amount of targets and he's a matchup nightmare for many teams. Time for him to wake up.

The O-line is the most important part of this offense. I say that and this follow up every week, but it's true. Clay Matthews and their front 7 will come hard which means that the O-line must come up big in pass protection. As of right now, they don't bring many extra blockers, but it could be worth bringing in Dwayne Allen or a running back in the backfield because this front 7 will overwhelm the Colts' front seven. I won't say much more other than that if the Colts want to beat the Packers offense (points and performance wise), the O-line must perform.

Then the defense.

The D-line has to perform better. Fili Moala isn't doing badly and Redding is just an animal, but Mookie Johnson is just terrible. They can't do well as a unit if they have one guy performing on a consistent basis. They need to beat their interior. Once they start doing that, the sacks will start coming more easily. For this upcoming game, maybe getting a couple of backers blitzing could help relieve the pressure for the D-line, but other than that, don't expect much from them.

The linebackers must be big. They must be huge. They've been playing well lately, especially Robert Mathis and Jerrell Freeman. Robert Mathis and the other outside linebacker (Freeney or Hughes) must provide pressure on Rodgers. If they can't, the defense will be picked apart by the best QB in the league. The inside guys need to stop the run and force the Packers to go pass heavy. From there, the Colts should start blitzing more with the inside guys. Pressure Rodgers and life will become that much easier.

The secondary has a couple of people to worry about. the most important guy to worry about is Jordy Nelson. With Jennings out, expect to see a lot of targets to go his way. This means that Jerraud Powers needs to come up big against him. He's good against the long passes, but against the short ones, he gets beat a lot. As for the other guys Cassius Vaughn and Josh Gordy, they'll be going up against James Jones and Randall Cobb. They'll definitely lose that, so the Colts need to get Antoine Bethea over the top to provide extra help, especially against James Jones, who's a deep threat. If the pass rush is there, the Colts secondary will have an easier time against them. If it's not there, God help them.

What the Packers Need to do to WIn

They should try to have a balanced offense. I know they have the best QB in the league and they usually go pass heavy, but the run defense has been pretty weak recently, which means it's the perfect time to give Benson the ball. Once the Packers establish the run, they can start taking shots down the field and start becoming more aggressive. They can just go pass heavy all game and get away with it. It worked against the Saints, but not against the Seahawks and Bears. Also, with the Colts having many injuries to their secondary, they should try to target the secondary options as they'll be going up against bad players. In other words, target Randall Cobb and Donald Driver as they'll be going up against guys like Josh Gordy, and Cassius Vaughn or even Darius Butler.

On defense, all they need to do is stop the passing game. The Colts won't win games running the ball. To stop the pass, it all depends on the pressure on Andrew Luck and the disguises. He is very good at rolling out, but if the Packers blitz 5 or 6 guys each time, they'll stop the Colts offense. A bit key is Clay Matthews. To get good matchups, Clay should go to his left side and go against Winston Justice, or cut towards the inside and get a matchup with Jeff Linkenbach. He needs to find the right matchups, because believe it or not, Anthony Castonzo is pretty good and has allowed no sacks to Jared Allen and Julius Peppers. Impressive. Also, the Packers must properly disguise the zone schemes. Luck is still young and isn't experienced enough to make the right decision play after play. This means that they should have an aggressive safety that just goes after the ball. Charles Woodson needs to be that guy. Finally, the Packers should focus on Reggie Wayne. He's having a great year and it will only get better if there's only one guy on him. Double team him or bring help over the top.

Balance attack to start the game on offense, then start becoming aggressive. On defense, blitz a lot and be aggressive in the secondary.

Intriguing Matchups

The most intriguing matchup has to be Clay Matthews vs O-line. It's not just one person because Clay Matthews loves to line up and blitz from everywhere. Clay Matthews has been the best defensive player in the league (along with JJ Watt) this year, so he's someone they must account for more than anybody on that defense. If he goes on the outside, having a running back help block could be key. If he goes on the inside, Linkenbach will have a tough time against him, which means that Luck will be forced to move around. If Matthews wins this matchup, he'll slow the Colts' offense down and prevent them from scoring many points. If the Colts win this matchup, their offense will get going.

Prediction

Green Bay Packers 27 vs Indianapolis Colts 20

[Jason_]

I'm still curious how you have determined that Mookie is "terrible" when you don't even know what games he's played in. *shrug*

[braveheartcolt]

I'm still curious how you have determined that Mookie is "terrible" when you don't even know what games he's played in. *shrug*

Give it a rest for goodness sake. You saw his mistake, you flamed him for it, now it just looks like goading.....

[Andy]

I'm still curious how you have determined that Mookie is "terrible" when you don't even know what games he's played in. *shrug*

What are you talking about Jason? I've been watching the last 3 games over and over again (yeah, I've seen them at least 3 times each), and I keep coming away disapointed with Mookie's performance. He got benched in the Jags game and Tevaseau did an as good or better job than Mookie did.

Mookie has not been good, and you KNOW IT.

[Jason_]

Give it a rest for goodness sake. You saw his mistake, you flamed him for it, now it just looks like goading.....

I've flamed no one, and if you don't like reading my posts, feel free to use your ignore list. If he would admit to making a mistake then i could at least respect him for that. instead, he tries to claim that I misunderstood his post, when other members clearly took away the same thing I did from what he said.

[Jason_]

What are you talking about Jason? I've been watching the last 3 games over and over again (yeah, I've seen them at least 3 times each)

I'm merely going by your own statement claiming that Mookie "didn't even play" in the jags game. Considering Mookie did play despite your claims to the contrary, that simply leads me to conclude you could not have actually watched the game, at least at the time you made the original statement followed by claims of Mookie's "terrible play".

If you truly think that Tevaseu has outplayed Mookie overall then my suspicions about your lack of football are confirmed. Tevaseu made a couple of plays in the jags game but he also got thrown around a lot, as was the case in the game the week before. I would consider him a 3rd string talent at best at this point in his career. That's not saying that he can't improve with time and coaching, but at this time he has not in any way been better, overall, than Mookie.

I also clearly said that Mookie didn't have his best game against the jags. He was more inconsistent than he had been in the previous games. He still did make a few good plays though. Overall, I've been very pleased with what I've seen from him. I had very little expectations coming into the season on how he would perform in the new defense but so far I do believe, as do others, that he has played well. Not great by any means, but well. He's been doing what he's supposed to do, hold his ground in the middle and keep the LB's clean. When Mookie is on the field, I see the FB or TE's trying to block the ILB's. When Tevaseu is on the field, more often than not, it's interior OL guys getting into the next level and blocking the LB's.

If you're not happy with his play thus far then that's fine. That's your prerogative. If you think he could be better, or you think he should be replaced then that's fine. But to say that he's been terrible and doesn't deserve to even be a backup on an NFL team, that's simply incorrect.

[Andy]

I'm merely going by your own statement claiming that Mookie "didn't even play" in the jags game. Considering Mookie did play despite your claims to the contrary, that simply leads me to conclude you could not have actually watched the game, at least at the time you made the original statement followed by claims of Mookie's "terrible play".

If you truly think that Tevaseu has outplayed Mookie overall then my suspicions about your lack of football are confirmed. Tevaseu made a couple of plays in the jags game but he also got thrown around a lot, as was the case in the game the week before. I would consider him a 3rd string talent at best at this point in his career. That's not saying that he can't improve with time and coaching, but at this time he has not in any way been better, overall, than Mookie.

I also clearly said that Mookie didn't have his best game against the jags. He was more inconsistent than he had been in the previous games. He still did make a few good plays though. Overall, I've been very pleased with what I've seen from him. I had very little expectations coming into the season on how he would perform in the new defense but so far I do believe, as do others, that he has played well. Not great by any means, but well. He's been doing what he's supposed to do, hold his ground in the middle and keep the LB's clean. When Mookie is on the field, I see the FB or TE's trying to block the ILB's. When Tevaseu is on the field, more often than not, it's interior OL guys getting into the next level and blocking the LB's.

If you're not happy with his play thus far then that's fine. That's your prerogative. If you think he could be better, or you think he should be replaced then that's fine. But to say that he's been terrible and doesn't deserve to even be a backup on an NFL team, that's simply incorrect.

I'll make this short. I should have made the didn't even play part more understandable, and Im sorry for that.

All Im gonna say is he hasn't not been performing like a starter and is very replaceable, and that's not just me, that's many people on this forum and in the media. Finally, Teveseau has been performing pretty well considering the time he's gotten. I'd say considering the time he's gotten, he's been performing as well as Mookie.

[Jason_]

I'll make this short. I should have made the didn't even play part more understandable, and Im sorry for that.

Well I wouldn't say there was a need to apologize, but rather just to admit that you either made a mistake or that you unintentionally didn't communicate well exactly what you were trying to say. We've all been there, myself included. It's easy for people to mistake the intent of what you're trying to say if you're not 100% clear...I've definitely been there myself.

All Im gonna say is he hasn't not been performing like a starter and is very replaceable, and that's not just me, that's many people on this forum and in the media. Finally, Teveseau has been performing pretty well considering the time he's gotten. I'd say considering the time he's gotten, he's been performing as well as Mookie.

Well we're making progress now, and that's a good thing. I do disagree that Tevaseu has been performing as well as Mookie, but I respect that opinion from you far more than previous statements you've made. However I now ask, if you feel Tevaseu has been performing as well as Mookie, then does that mean Tevaseu also has been terrible, or perhaps has your previous evaluations of Mookie been overly critical and unnecessarily harsh?

Again, if you don't feel he's worthy of being a starter at this time, then I can respect that. if you feel that Tevaseu has outplayed Mookie then I can respect that as well, though I would strongly disagree. I know there are many on the forum who feel that Mookie is not playing well and is the weak point of our defense, though I disagree. However I also know there are several that disagree with that notion and feel that Mookie has actually been playing well, all things considered. And to be perfectly honest, there are several members who I've seen stick up for Mookie and I was not surprised to see that those members were ones whom I've always felt had a higher understanding and knowledge of the game than most, and that has nothing to do with their opinions of Mookie but rather from the posts I've seen from them and discussions I've had with them over the past couple of years that I've been a member here.

In my opinion, it's easy to blame Mookie and say he's terrible because it's the popular thing to do. Just like last year, it was the popular thing to blame Painter for how terrible the offense was. Painter was not a great QB by any stretch, but I put far more blame on the coaching staff for not making any type of adjustments to the gameplan once they realized Manning was not going to be playing. They tried to run the Manning offense but with Painter at the helm and that was never going to work. It wasn't until Orlovsky took over as starter that the offense showed a completely different look. If they'd have adjusted the offense much sooner then I think we'd have seen a much different Curtis Painter. I don't think he'd have led us to a winning season or anything like that, but I don't think he'd have been as inept as he was. They put far too much on his shoulders, and that goes on the coaching staff. Still, the popular thing to do, both among the fan base and the media, was to blame Painter for how terrible the offense was.

I think this situation with Mookie is very comparable. He's been holding his ground and keeping the LB's clean more often than not. The runs that have been busted have been between the OG/OT, which is not his responsibility, or to the outside, which again is not his responsibility. I believe our continued problems with run defense is far more on the shoulders of the LB core. Mathis and Hughes/Freeney/Addison have done a very poor job of setting the edge, allowing runs to be cut to the outside. Each of these guys are much better at chasing the play down than they are at setting the edge to prevent the play when it comes to their side.

Conner and Freeman have played well, but there have also been several times where they failed to maintain gap discipline and allowed plays for big gains through the gaps for which they were responsible, Freeman having done this more than Conner. I'm not going to call for either of them to be cut or benched because I understand that the season is still very young and they're still getting used to a new defensive scheme. I can't say at this time, however, that I'm as confident as many seem to be that we're set at ILB and I wouldn't at all mind seeing the Colts draft a guy like Teo early in the next draft or seeking an upgrade via FA...if I read correctly Laurinitis will be a FA, though I'm sure the Rams will do everything they can to keep him. That's not so say that Freeman and Conner can't continue to improve and develop, but at this time I'm far more comfortable with Mookie being in the long-term plans than I am Conner and Freeman.

We haven't had great play from the Safeties either. Bethea has been very solid for the most part and has made a number of outstanding plays, but he's been off at times as well. Zbi definitely has to get better or we may be looking at spending a high draft pick on a SS this coming year, or finding someone in FA.

The point is, the entire defense is learning a new scheme and trying to gel together in that new scheme so they're all going to miss assignments at times and allow big plays. i would, however, go so far as to say that Mookie has actually been one of the more solid performers on the defense rather than the popular belief that he's been a weak link. If there's any one player that I would personally go so far as to say he's been terrible it'd be Ricardo Matthews. Though I think this has more to do with him just being a wrong fit for a 2-gap DE in a 3-4 than it is to do with him lacking talent.

[Gavin]

I think to determine who has played well at Nose its good to determine and state what its is that someone thinks is a requirement at that position

[braveheartcolt]

I've flamed no one, and if you don't like reading my posts, feel free to use your ignore list. If he would admit to making a mistake then i could at least respect him for that. instead, he tries to claim that I misunderstood his post, when other members clearly took away the same thing I did from what he said.

'Ignore' is the cowards way out. You are a knowledgable guy, but you do not need to sneer as you post.

[tfunky14]

huh

[Jason_]

'Ignore' is the cowards way out. You are a knowledgable guy, but you do not need to sneer as you post.

And typically i dont. The few times that i do, though, i have a specific reason for doing so.

[Jason_]

'Ignore' is the cowards way out. You are a knowledgable guy, but you do not need to sneer as you post.

And btw, ive read the majority of your posts, especially during the peyton fans vs colts fans discussions. You're hardly one to be telling others to post politely.