Only twice did the Colts even have a higher win prob than HOU (both in mid Q1). The Colts' 2H win probability was never higher than 38% either.
And that was with 3 pts likely taken off the board at the end of 1H for HOU. That game was not 50/50:
I wouldn't be so sure about TEN having no run game. They just put up 140 yards on the Bears, who were a top 7 run defense last year.
Pollard is a good RB and Spears has juice.
Their defense looked very stout too.
Won't matter if Levis throws games away, but I think they will be a tough to team to sweep.
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