Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, chad72 said:

Are the Raiders willing to give up two 1sts and two 2nds and possibly a 3rd? Are the Falcons or Panthers willing to give up three firsts? If yes, Bears would gladly move back that far  

I really don’t see a team doing that for these quarterbacks. If there was a generational one my guess is bears would be taking them at one and trading fields.

 

I do like colts have some players eberflus is familiar with that could sweeten the pot if another team farther down tried to do that.

[chad72]

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I really don’t see a team doing that for these quarterbacks. If there was a generational one my guess is bears would be taking them at one and trading fields.

 

I do like colts have some players eberflus is familiar with that could sweeten the pot if another team farther down tried to do that.

Yeah and I don’t think the Bears will get everything they want unless they compromise and keep wheeling and dealing down Round 1, thus also costing a chance to get a difference maker early in the draft.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Another thing to watch is if Payton goes to Carolina. They might give up farm for young. I am just not sure if they would have to give up that 9th luck for Payton or not. Or if it will be a future first. 
 

Ob edit never mind. If Payton wants to go to Carolina it might be impossible for them to move up. They can’t give up extra firsts because one has to go to saints. If they give up the 9th pick  they won’t have a first. This might be good news if he goes to Carolina. 
 

Di they have  any extra first from cmc trade?

[danlhart87]

3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Another thing to watch is if Payton goes to Carolina. They might give up farm for young. I am just not sure if they would have to give up that 9th luck for Payton or not. Or if it will be a future first. 
 

Ob edit never mind. If Payton wants to go to Carolina it might be impossible for them to move up. They can’t give up extra firsts because one has to go to saints. If they give up the 9th pick  they won’t have a first. This might be good news if he goes to Carolina. 
 

Di they have  any extra first from cmc trade?

pick autocorrected to luck because we mention him too much

 

[danlhart87]

41 minutes ago, Lurk McGurk said:

Hey... Bears fan here.  First of all let me say that I respect this forum you have going here.  You all seem to be very respectful of each other.  If you ever want to see a hot mess of a forum, wander over to the Bears forum and check it out.  At least half the posts are of people bickering or insulting each other.  So kudos to you all.

 

I've been looking at some of your thoughts on the draft situation and I wanted to provide a couple of mine:

 

I saw some people mentioning that no quarterback is worth trading up to #1 for since there are no generational QB's like Manning or Luck in this draft.  There is no trading up for a generational QB.  You wouldn't be able to convince a team to trade away that spot.  For example, if Caleb Williams is viewed to be a generational QB when the 2024 draft comes around, the only way you're getting him is if you have the #1 pick.  The thought of accumulating first round picks to be able to go up and get one is nice, but it's almost certainly not going to happen.

 

This is exactly the type of draft that you trade up for a QB in.  There are currently 2 QB's considered to be at the top of the class, and are highly ranked on the big board for any position (with Levis seemingly being viewed as the 3rd QB, but obviously teams will have their own opinions).  They aren't generational talents, but that's what makes it a possibility to trade for them.  They are viewed as very good prospects though, and there is going to be a lot of interest for teams to move up and get them.  Recent drafts of the past should show us that is very likely.  Houston is going to take a QB at #2.  The Bears are huge favorites to trade out of #1.  This means that if a team doesn't trade up to #1, they will be looking at the possibility of taking what's left over of the top 3 QB's.  It is possible that teams view those 3 QB's as being of fairly equal value, but when you consider the fit for the team, and the importance of the QB position, it's much more likely that teams will have a significant preference for one of them.  Even more so because teams will be facing the very real possibility that their top TWO preferences will be gone with the first 2 picks, not just their top preference.  

 

After you clear that hurdle, then there's the reality that once 2 QB's go with the first 2 picks, if the 3rd QB is considered to be considerably better than the rest that are left, the Cardinals at #3 are going to be getting phone calls to move up for their pick as well.  There's a shot that the first 3 picks are QB's.  While it may seem preferable to only trade up to #3 with the Cardinals for the Colts, they may get outbid for that pick as well, and it may very well be the 3rd QB on their board at that point anyway.  Is it really worth saving a first round pick to draft the 3rd QB on your board instead of the 1st QB on your board, while also keeping that QB away from a division rival?  I doubt most GM's would think so.

 

It's not very realistic to think the Colts could move to #1 without giving up a first rounder next year either.  The Bears are very likely to get offered multiple firsts from teams drafting behind the Colts, so not getting any from the Colts would be a problem.  Yes the Bears would probably like to pick at 4 instead of farther back, and I would like them to as well, but any package from any team other than Houston would almost surely include a first rounder.

 

There's also the scenario where the Bears make a trade with Houston, and then also trade out of the #2 slot as well.  With there being 2 highly coveted QB's in this class I think that's a possibility.  It's what I'm hoping for personally.  I saw some posters suggesting the Bears trade with Houston and then draft Anderson/Carter at #2, but it's probably more likely they would make another trade than make that pick. 

 

In regard to Bryce Young, he's the odds on favorite to be drafted #1 overall.  He is not slipping out of the top 10 or dropping to the second round.  Here are the odds right now for who gets drafted at #1:

Young: -125

Stroud +220

Anderson +500

Carter +700

Levis +900

 

Hello welcome 

 

The price tag for most would be too high to trade up to 1 but Colts are also a desperate team. I expect Ballard to put in an offer and if they pass for him to take his chances. Worst case scenario all the top 3 QBs via trades are gone leaving AR15 or Anderson or Carter then possible Round 2 QB. Chances are if we stay at 4 we will have 1 of the 3 probably 3rd

[Fluke_33]

20 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Thats 2004, Eli Manning.

 

My 2019 Colts-Jets trade is far more real and same amount of spots to jump like the Jets did except the No.1 pick requires a future 1st without a doubt. So two 2nds won’t cut it. Current and future 1st and current 3rd, I’d be ok with

Yes. I was talking about the giants trading for Eli manning. 
 

the colts jets trade is not comparable at all.  1 to 4 is vastly different than 3 to 6.  Look at the value chart or history of trades.  

[danlhart87]

11 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Another thing to watch is if Payton goes to Carolina. They might give up farm for young. I am just not sure if they would have to give up that 9th luck for Payton or not. Or if it will be a future first. 
 

Ob edit never mind. If Payton wants to go to Carolina it might be impossible for them to move up. They can’t give up extra firsts because one has to go to saints. If they give up the 9th pick  they won’t have a first. This might be good news if he goes to Carolina. 
 

Di they have  any extra first from cmc trade?

No team would give up a top 10 pick for a coach 

[Fluke_33]

31 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Wasn’t that a little different though since they got rivers in return.

I don’t think so no.  They knew the giants wanted manning and the giants knew they wanted rivers.  It’s the same as if they traded right before the draft 

[csmopar]

Here’s the thing. I think the X factor in all this is Houston. It’s been reported that Houston’s owners were IRRATE when they beat us. They wanted that number one bad. I think they’ll over pay similar to the RG3 trade just to trade up from 2-1. Then if I’m Chicago, I’m calling Ballard and saying hey, let’s trade. 
If that happens, then Chicago comes out with a basket full of picks. 

[Lurk McGurk]

18 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

Hello welcome 

 

The price tag for most would be too high to trade up to 1 but Colts are also a desperate team. I expect Ballard to put in an offer and if they pass for him to take his chances. Worst case scenario all the top 3 QBs via trades are gone leaving AR15 or Anderson or Carter then possible Round 2 QB. Chances are if we stay at 4 we will have 1 of the 3 probably 3rd

 

15 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Here’s the thing. I think the X factor in all this is Houston. It’s been reported that Houston’s owners were IRRATE when they beat us. They wanted that number one bad. I think they’ll over pay similar to the RG3 trade just to trade up from 2-1. Then if I’m Chicago, I’m calling Ballard and saying hey, let’s trade. 
If that happens, then Chicago comes out with a basket full of picks. 

Thanks danlhart87.  Let's hope that the familiarity with Poles and Ballard pays off here for both teams.  Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'd like to think they could work together to drive up the cost for Houston to move up to 1, then work out a deal for #2, so the Colts still get their guy for a cheaper price at #2, and also punish their divisional rival by getting Houston to give up more draft capital. 

Maybe that's part of what's been "leaking", or what Ballard said in his press conference about moving up.

[danlhart87]

12 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Here’s the thing. I think the X factor in all this is Houston. It’s been reported that Houston’s owners were IRRATE when they beat us. They wanted that number one bad. I think they’ll over pay similar to the RG3 trade just to trade up from 2-1. Then if I’m Chicago, I’m calling Ballard and saying hey, let’s trade. 
If that happens, then Chicago comes out with a basket full of picks. 

 

Or they get turned down by everyone and left with this

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Lmao

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

21 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

No team would give up a top 10 pick for a coach 

Just going by what Payton said. He said it would be a mid to late round first. That’s what panthers have. Could be future first but what if they are bad and that ends up high. They can’t give up a future first either then to move up if it costs them a future first for Payton.

19 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Here’s the thing. I think the X factor in all this is Houston. It’s been reported that Houston’s owners were IRRATE when they beat us. They wanted that number one bad. I think they’ll over pay similar to the RG3 trade just to trade up from 2-1. Then if I’m Chicago, I’m calling Ballard and saying hey, let’s trade. 
If that happens, then Chicago comes out with a basket full of picks. 

It would be dumb to give up the farm when you have the 2nd pick.

[Fluke_33]

23 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

No team would give up a top 10 pick for a coach 

The jets gave up a lot.  Multiple picks for parcells including a first rounder but I don’t think it was a top 10. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Irs going to be fun next couple months to see what rumors come out and which ones were right. The combine is in about 6 weeks. That’s where deals are made and we start hearing what other teams think about these QB.

[danlhart87]

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Irs going to be fun next couple months to see what rumors come out and which ones were right. The combine is in about 6 weeks. That’s where deals are made and we start hearing what other teams think about these QB.

I am anxiously awaiting news if Levis is gonna be at the senior bowl

 

Does anybody have a chart that shows how many Ballard picks were in senior bowl?

[Happy2BeHere]

I am making a prediction that no trades are done within the first 4 picks. I think at the end of the day that no team will wheel and deal those first 4 picks. 

[danlhart87]

Just now, Happy2BeHere said:

I am making a prediction that no trades are done within the first 4 picks. I think at the end of the day that no team will wheel and deal those first 4 picks. 

Then the remaining 26 picks teams do a crazy trade with each other

 

Eagles trade down from 10 to their other late 1st creating a paradox and ripping a hole in reality. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

This is a OSU WR am I correct? Go get stroud and get this guy  maybe with our second. If we don’t have to give it away in a trade up? Although if we bring Campbell back may not have a need.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

14 minutes ago, Happy2BeHere said:

I am making a prediction that no trades are done within the first 4 picks. I think at the end of the day that no team will wheel and deal those first 4 picks. 

You could be right.  But if Chicago has a offer from Indy or Texans they might be kind of dumb not to take it because they could still get a dline guy.

[crazycolt1]

9 minutes ago, Happy2BeHere said:

I am making a prediction that no trades are done within the first 4 picks. I think at the end of the day that no team will wheel and deal those first 4 picks. 

I think Anderson and Carter play a bigger part of the draft than the QBs. If the Bears can make a trade and can secure either one of those players they probably will.

I keep reading these crazy scenarios that the Colts are going to give up the farm for the first pick. Personally I wouldn't like that to happen. Maybe the Colts should just stand pat and take the best available player at pick 4?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

10 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

I think Anderson and Carter play a bigger part of the draft than the QBs. If the Bears can make a trade and can secure either one of those players they probably will.

I keep reading these crazy scenarios that the Colts are going to give up the farm for the first pick. Personally I wouldn't like that to happen. Maybe the Colts should just stand pat and take the best available player at pick 4?

I still wouldn’t count bears out reading down a little farther for Oline. A tackle maybe. Just have to keep a eye on that. Tackle probably harder to get then a DE.

[danlhart87]

12 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

This is a OSU WR am I correct? Go get stroud and get this guy  maybe with our second. If we don’t have to give it away in a trade up? Although if we bring Campbell back may not have a need.

 

 

If Ballard gets a QB at 4 then JSN at 35 this will a homerun

 

Yes JSN was at OSU and Stroud would love throwing to him

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, danlhart87 said:

If Ballard gets a QB at 4 then JSN at 35 this will a homerun

 

Yes JSN was at OSU and Stroud would love throwing to him

He is a slot guy though right? 

[chad72]

1 hour ago, Fluke_33 said:

Yes. I was talking about the giants trading for Eli manning. 
 

the colts jets trade is not comparable at all.  1 to 4 is vastly different than 3 to 6.  Look at the value chart or history of trades.  

Gotcha. Agree it’s different. That’s why we can’t get away with multiple 2nd rounders like the Jets did and HAVE TO throw in a future 1st, so we’re essentially saying the same thing. The only thing we’re unsure about is “what additional pick beyond that future 1st”.

I’d prefer current 3rd but Bears might want a player and current 2nd. That’s the part where this trade has to be negotiated well by Ballard, IMO

[danlhart87]

21 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

He is a slot guy though right? 

JSN works mostly in the slot 

[danlhart87]

Bears sites be like 

 

Colts recieve 1

Bears receive every Colts draft pick next 4 years

[crazycolt1]

17 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

Bears sites be like 

 

Colts recieve 1

Bears receive every Colts draft pick next 4 years

Don't forget the Bears also get a couple of our best players in the deal too.

[chad72]

18 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

Bears sites be like 

 

Colts recieve 1

Bears receive every Colts draft pick next 4 years

…and they’ll still be replaying Da Bears from SNL and Ditka impersonations holding on to their only 1985 SB win forever, lol 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

interesting IG story by Trey Lance. Titans hired a SF guy as GM. Crossed fingers he wants to be traded to titans or crossed fingers as in good luck. This is another thing that could change draft. Lance and Love  could both br on the move. 

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Imagine if titans traded for lance. All four teams in south would have young QB.

[danlhart87]

Even though he hasn't played much the 49ers paid a lot to get Lance so I imagine 49ers would want Titans 1st

[danlhart87]

BTW if I am the Packers I trade Aaron Rodgers and get Love all the help he can get with picks

[crazycolt1]

8 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Imagine if titans traded for lance. All four teams in south would have young QB.

In reality all the 4 teams in the south knows that to be competitive they have to try and get a QB that gives them a chance against QBs such as Burrow, Allen and Mahomes.  I'm not sure any QB in this draft does that?

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, danlhart87 said:

BTW if I am the Packers I trade Aaron Rodgers and get Love all the help he can get with picks

I kind of agree with that.  I would hate to see that but the smart thing to do would be get out from under that contract and get the best possible draft picks for Rogers.  If they wait Rogers value only goes down. 

[danlhart87]

7 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

In reality all the 4 teams in the south knows that to be competitive they have to try and get a QB that gives them a chance against QBs such as Burrow, Allen and Mahomes.  I'm not sure any QB in this draft does that?

Combine all the draft QBs into 1

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I imagine they might have Lance and Purdy compete in TC maybe. I don’t think you can say Purdy is the guy unless they actually win the SB which I don’t think they will. Lance has too much upside. Just something to watch. 
 

 

[NFLfan]

3 hours ago, Lurk McGurk said:

Hey... Bears fan here.  First of all let me say that I respect this forum you have going here.  You all seem to be very respectful of each other.  If you ever want to see a hot mess of a forum, wander over to the Bears forum and check it out.  At least half the posts are of people bickering or insulting each other.  So kudos to you all.

 

Welcome to the Colts forum. The folks here are very knowledgeable and respectful of other fans but there is bickering here too at times. We all try to refrain from that but it happens. Don't let that affect your experience here. 

 

At least one other  Bears fan has been posting here. He wishes to keep Fields as the franchise QB. What are your thoughts on the Bears QB position? My apologies if you already addressed it and I missed it.

 

Anyway, enjoy it.

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

14 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

In reality all the 4 teams in the south knows that to be competitive they have to try and get a QB that gives them a chance against QBs such as Burrow, Allen and Mahomes.  I'm not sure any QB in this draft does that?

Not willing to say that because they haven’t even played a game. We really don’t know. Just like mahomes and Allen were missed by the very top teams.

[crazycolt1]

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Not willing to say that because they haven’t even played a game. We really don’t know. Just like mahomes and Allen were missed by the very top teams.

Saying I'm not sure is the same thing as you saying we really don't know.