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Wentz by the numbers


lollygagger8
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I've been the first one to say that Wentz has NOT been the problem, because the first two games he did play his tail off. 

 

Last week though, yeesh. 

 

This isn't a rag on Wentz thread, it's just gotta be hard to be Eason or Huntley when your coach says 70% Wentz is the best option right now. Esp after seeing this: 

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/9/27/22695918/carson-wentz-stat-tracker-week-3

 

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season.

NOTE: references to weekly ranks are of the 30 team QBs through Sunday night

HOW WELL?

When people describe Wentz, I keep hearing words like “tough”, “strong arm”, “mobile”. You know that is not an alternate way of saying “good”, right?

Less than 1 of 3 Wentz dropbacks were successful and his 32.5% Passing Success Rate was the worst of any week 3 QB. His -0.19 epa per dropback was 27th.

 

01_QB_Tracker_EPA_Bar.png

Everything was worse . . . much, much worse.
 

02_QB_Tracker_Top_4.png

 

HOW FAR?

His yards per attempt never even sniffed the acceptable range.

 

03_Sequential_Passes.png

 

Through 3 weeks, he is 21st in ypa, driven by the 28th shortest passes. Bad combo.

 

05_YPA_Split.png

Air depth on both attempts and (5.4 yds) and completions (4.2 yds) dropped back to the “I can only check-down” range.

 

04_Air_Yards.png

 

TO WHO?

Does it even matter?

 

07_QB_Receivers.png

For the next image, notice the utter absence of blue dots in the upper right quadrant of the chart on the left? That’s where Colts receivers who added greater than average value on longer than average passes would have been . . . you know . . . had there been any.

 

08_Receivers_2.png

 

HOW ACCURATE?

51.4%. That’s a completion rate not a presidential approval rating. A -13.3% cpoe suggests an average QB . . . average . . . would have completed 64.7% of those attempts. I’m not great at math but that seems below average. No, wait, I am great at math.

 

09_Accuracy.png

 

HOW FAST?

And now we come to everyone’s favorite stat to harp on this year.

For those claiming that Wentz’s previous time to throw numbers were upwards biased because he was running for his life, then here is some proof. He clearly could not run for his life this week and his TTT dropped to 2.7 (about league average).

For the 5th shortest attempts, that’s still too slow. He is gun-shy, which combined with very short passes is quite Brissettish.

 

10_Time_to_Throw.png

 

See the rest here; https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/9/27/22695918/carson-wentz-stat-tracker-week-3

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Playing with an injured and very weak OL to start the year against three very strong playoff teams while playing through injury himself and terrible play calling.  Not really worried.  He's done very well considering.  Pretty easy to see improvement on the horizon as the line improves and he gets healthier. 

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35 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

And now we come to everyone’s favorite stat to harp on this year.

For those claiming that Wentz’s previous time to throw numbers were upwards biased because he was running for his life, then here is some proof. He clearly could not run for his life this week and his TTT dropped to 2.7 (about league average).

For the 5th shortest attempts, that’s still too slow. He is gun-shy, which combined with very short passes is quite Brissettish

Thanks for putting this together.

 

So neither Brissett, Rivers, or now Wentz have had much of a down field game.  Only Luck had one.  

 

All four were coached by Reich.

 

When Luck played under Reich, he also played with TY and Ebron, and the other three did not (Ebron sat when JB was here).

 

Hmmmm.

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