BlueShoe’s Post Senior Bowl Colts Mock Draft

[BlueShoe]

In this mock, the board plays out as follows….

 

With the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Cleveland Browns select Sam Darnold, Quarterback, USC.

 

The New York Giants have traded the second selection of the 2018 NFL draft to the Denver Broncos. With the second pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos select Josh Allen, Quarterback, Wyoming.

 

The Indianapolis Colts have traded the third selection of the 2018 NFL draft to the New York Jets. With the third pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select Josh Rosen, Quarterback, UCLA.

 

With the fourth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select Saquon Barkley, Running Back, Penn State.

 

With the fifth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the New York Giants select Bradley Chubb, Defensive End, NC State.

 

………………………………………………………………..

 

The Colts acquire the Jets selections (6th, 37th, and 49th) for the 3rd overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft.

 

The Colts now have 9 total picks, as follows (compensatory picks will change some of the draft order).

 

With the sixth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Indianapolis Colts select Quenton Nelson, Guard, Notre Dame.

 

6: Quenton Nelson, Guard, Notre Dame

36: Sam Hubbard, Defensive End, Ohio State

37: Tyrell Crosby, Offensive Tackle, Oregon

49: Malik Jefferson, Linebacker, Texas

67: DaeSean Hamilton, Wide Receiver, Penn State

100: Dorance Armstrong Jr, Defensive End, Kansas

131: Bo Scarbrough, Running Back, Alabama

164: Allen Lazard, Wide Receiver, Iowa State

195: Chris Worley, Linebacker, Ohio State

[BlueShoe]

No objections at all?

 

I must have nailed this!  

[jameszeigler834]

21 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

In this mock, the board plays out as follows….

 

With the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Cleveland Browns select Sam Darnold, Quarterback, USC.

 

The New York Giants have traded the second selection of the 2018 NFL draft to the Denver Broncos. With the second pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos select Josh Allen, Quarterback, Wyoming.

 

The Indianapolis Colts have traded the third selection of the 2018 NFL draft to the New York Jets. With the third pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select Josh Rosen, Quarterback, UCLA.

 

With the fourth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select Saquon Barkley, Running Back, Penn State.

 

With the fifth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the New York Giants select Bradley Chubb, Defensive End, NC State.

 

………………………………………………………………..

 

The Colts acquire the Jets selections (6th, 37th, and 49th) for the 3rd overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft.

 

The Colts now have 9 total picks, as follows (compensatory picks will change some of the draft order).

 

With the sixth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Indianapolis Colts select Quenton Nelson, Guard, Notre Dame.

 

6: Quenton Nelson, Guard, Notre Dame

36: Sam Hubbard, Defensive End, Ohio State

37: Tyrell Crosby, Offensive Tackle, Oregon

49: Malik Jefferson, Linebacker, Texas

67: DaeSean Hamilton, Wide Receiver, Penn State

100: Dorance Armstrong Jr, Defensive End, Kansas

131: Bo Scarbrough, Running Back, Alabama

164: Allen Lazard, Wide Receiver, Iowa State

195: Chris Worley, Linebacker, Ohio State

If the colts trade back its going to take more than three picks to do it.

[BlueShoe]

1 hour ago, jameszeigler834 said:

If the colts trade back its going to take more than three picks to do it.

 

Why do you think it would take more than the 6th, 37th, and 49th?

 

Receiving the 6th, 37th, and 49th (for the 3rd) is already more than the norm.

 

3rd = 2,200

 

6th = 1,600

37th = 530

49th = 410

----------------

6th, 37th, and 49th = 2,540

 

In this hypothetical trade, the Colts already get an extra 340 points, which is equal to a second round pick (57th overall). 

 

As you can see, a surcharge is already built-in to the mock trade, so I am not sure why anyone would say "If the colts trade back its going to take more than three picks to do it." Your response is certainly something I am willing to entertain in discussion, but not something I am willing to take at face value. 

 

A bidding war is always possible. However, according to the mock, the Broncos would already be out of the bidding as they would have a quarterback. It would be other teams bidding with the Jets. 

 

How far are we willing to move back (a question for the Colts front office)? I doubt they want to move back very far. The Jets have the 6th pick, and that's not too far to move. Therefore, it makes sense to charge the Jets a little extra, and then make the deal with them. 

[BleedBlu8792]

On 1/29/2018 at 8:46 PM, BlueShoe said:

In this mock, the board plays out as follows….

 

With the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Cleveland Browns select Sam Darnold, Quarterback, USC.

 

The New York Giants have traded the second selection of the 2018 NFL draft to the Denver Broncos. With the second pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos select Josh Allen, Quarterback, Wyoming.

 

The Indianapolis Colts have traded the third selection of the 2018 NFL draft to the New York Jets. With the third pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select Josh Rosen, Quarterback, UCLA.

 

With the fourth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select Saquon Barkley, Running Back, Penn State.

 

With the fifth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the New York Giants select Bradley Chubb, Defensive End, NC State.

 

………………………………………………………………..

 

The Colts acquire the Jets selections (6th, 37th, and 49th) for the 3rd overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft.

 

The Colts now have 9 total picks, as follows (compensatory picks will change some of the draft order).

 

With the sixth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Indianapolis Colts select Quenton Nelson, Guard, Notre Dame.

 

6: Quenton Nelson, Guard, Notre Dame

36: Sam Hubbard, Defensive End, Ohio State

37: Tyrell Crosby, Offensive Tackle, Oregon

49: Malik Jefferson, Linebacker, Texas

67: DaeSean Hamilton, Wide Receiver, Penn State

100: Dorance Armstrong Jr, Defensive End, Kansas

131: Bo Scarbrough, Running Back, Alabama

164: Allen Lazard, Wide Receiver, Iowa State

195: Chris Worley, Linebacker, Ohio State

 

- This would be a strong 2nd draft for Ballard. Nelson is a no brainer.

 

- As a Buckeye guy, I love the Hubbard pick, and he reminds me a lot of Simon when he came out. He's an under the radar, low-hype guy, who loves football. The kid always made plays at the right times it seemed. His stats could have been better, but I doubt there was a better DE rotation/depth in the country than Ohio State's. 

 

- I hope Jefferson lasts that long, but I could see Crosby and Jefferson swapping spots in draft order.

 

- Hamilton and Lazard could shake up the WR spots from day 1.

 

- Worley could end up being a huge steal at 195. He has similar athleticism to Shazier and Darron Lee. He played all 3 LB positions this year and I think would fit in perfect at the WILL spot should we move to a 4-3. He might have to wait a year, but he should be a good contributor on ST's to start.

 

I'm assuming with no DB's on the list, you're anticipating Melvin and Desir back? Or additions through FA?

[BlueShoe]

9 hours ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

- This would be a strong 2nd draft for Ballard. Nelson is a no brainer.

 

- As a Buckeye guy, I love the Hubbard pick, and he reminds me a lot of Simon when he came out. He's an under the radar, low-hype guy, who loves football. The kid always made plays at the right times it seemed. His stats could have been better, but I doubt there was a better DE rotation/depth in the country than Ohio State's. 

 

- I hope Jefferson lasts that long, but I could see Crosby and Jefferson swapping spots in draft order.

 

- Hamilton and Lazard could shake up the WR spots from day 1.

 

- Worley could end up being a huge steal at 195. He has similar athleticism to Shazier and Darron Lee. He played all 3 LB positions this year and I think would fit in perfect at the WILL spot should we move to a 4-3. He might have to wait a year, but he should be a good contributor on ST's to start.

 

I'm assuming with no DB's on the list, you're anticipating Melvin and Desir back? Or additions through FA?

 

I had Malik Jefferson in my top 20 in April of 2017. I thought he would have a great 2017 and really stake a claim as one of the best players in college football. Unfortunately, he has dropped off quite a bit, but he could rise again. He has talent, but he often disappears in games. I can see him going anywhere from 20 to 60.

 

I have Tyrell Crosby as the 4th best offensive tackle in the draft, and Malik is the 7th best off-ball linebacker. If that holds true (IF) then there is no way Jefferson is coming off the board before Crosby. Jefferson could move up and Crosby could fall in the process though. 

 

We drafted 2 corners last year, and I think they will both play a huge part moving forward. This draft has some nice corners, and we could draft another one. I think we will use free agency to hit a little on each position. Ballard is a fan of keeping our own, so as long as Melvin and Desir's contracts are reasonable then I see us bringing them back. 

[Surge89]

13 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I had Malik Jefferson in my top 20 in April of 2017. I thought he would have a great 2017 and really stake a claim as one of the best players in college football. Unfortunately, he has dropped off quite a bit, but he could rise again. He has talent, but he often disappears in games. I can see him going anywhere from 20 to 60.

 

I have Tyrell Crosby as the 4th best offensive tackle in the draft, and Malik is the 7th best off-ball linebacker. If that holds true (IF) then there is no way Jefferson is coming off the board before Crosby. Jefferson could move up and Crosby could fall in the process though. 

 

We drafted 2 corners last year, and I think they will both play a huge part moving forward. This draft has some nice corners, and we could draft another one. I think we will use free agency to hit a little on each position. Ballard is a fan of keeping our own, so as long as Melvin and Desir's contracts are reasonable then I see us bringing them back. 

 

This is interesting for you to say regarding Jefferson.  Care to explain why? In 2016 Jefferson was terrible and seemed to be regressing in a bad defense.  In 2017 Orlando came to Texas and every defensive player all of a sudden started looking like their recruited status.  Jefferson was definitely improved in 2017 and I have him in my top 5 linebackers.

 

For you to say the exact opposite of what I witnessed is very intriguing as you always tend to have an informed opinion so looking for some perspective. 

[Clem-Dog]

On 1/30/2018 at 7:05 PM, BlueShoe said:

 

Why do you think it would take more than the 6th, 37th, and 49th?

 

Receiving the 6th, 37th, and 49th (for the 3rd) is already more than the norm.

 

3rd = 2,200

 

6th = 1,600

37th = 530

49th = 410

----------------

6th, 37th, and 49th = 2,540

 

In this hypothetical trade, the Colts already get an extra 340 points, which is equal to a second round pick (57th overall). 

 

As you can see, a surcharge is already built-in to the mock trade, so I am not sure why anyone would say "If the colts trade back its going to take more than three picks to do it." Your response is certainly something I am willing to entertain in discussion, but not something I am willing to take at face value. 

 

A bidding war is always possible. However, according to the mock, the Broncos would already be out of the bidding as they would have a quarterback. It would be other teams bidding with the Jets. 

 

How far are we willing to move back (a question for the Colts front office)? I doubt they want to move back very far. The Jets have the 6th pick, and that's not too far to move. Therefore, it makes sense to charge the Jets a little extra, and then make the deal with them. 

Thanks for explaining the breakdown.  In this scenario if Rosen is available and the Jets feel he is an elite franchise QB then I don't think a late- 2nd surcharge is quite enough.  At the very least Ballard should attempt to squeeze another 2019 2nd out of them, which is equivalent to a 3rd this upcoming draft (275 pts range ?).  

[BlueShoe]

10 hours ago, Surge89 said:

 

This is interesting for you to say regarding Jefferson.  Care to explain why? In 2016 Jefferson was terrible and seemed to be regressing in a bad defense.  In 2017 Orlando came to Texas and every defensive player all of a sudden started looking like their recruited status.  Jefferson was definitely improved in 2017 and I have him in my top 5 linebackers.

 

For you to say the exact opposite of what I witnessed is very intriguing as you always tend to have an informed opinion so looking for some perspective. 

 

Truth is, I think Malik Jefferson is slow. I think he needs to run well at the combine or he is going to fall. I currently have him ranked at #55. Some of my ranking is because I think he is going to run slow at the combine. 

 

Texas moved him all over the place. In 2015 and 2016, I thought they were moving him around because they expected him to grow into a great player, and they wanted to expose him to a lot of things. However, I think in 2016 and 2017 the Longhorns coaches realized Malik didn't excel at any position.

 

Malik lacks anticipation and instincts to play MIKE in the NFL. He doesn't have any pass rush skills off the edge. He is not strong enough to bull rush off the edge. Doesn't set the edge well. 

 

He does tackle very well. I think there is some athletic ability to work with, but it's going to take time to teach him 1 position. Moving him around all over the place is not helping him. He has to run well at the combine for any of it to matter. 

 

I think he is a 43 WILL or a 34 WILL in the NFL, but he doesn't appear to have the instincts or the speed to be great. I think a team could coach him up and make him decent, as long as the speed isn't sub-par. 

[BlueShoe]

9 hours ago, Clem-Dog said:

Thanks for explaining the breakdown.  In this scenario if Rosen is available and the Jets feel he is an elite franchise QB then I don't think a late- 2nd surcharge is quite enough.  At the very least Ballard should attempt to squeeze another 2019 2nd out of them, which is equivalent to a 3rd this upcoming draft (275 pts range ?).  

 

It's always possible. We have seen it happen before.

 

However, I think the Jets will also realize that we do not want to fall too far in the draft order, In the end, they will know we want to deal with them. I think the extra second round pick that's built-in to the mock trade makes sense. Though, it would not surprise me if we got a little more.

[Surge89]

14 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Truth is, I think Malik Jefferson is slow. I think he needs to run well at the combine or he is going to fall. I currently have him ranked at #55. Some of my ranking is because I think he is going to run slow at the combine. 

 

Texas moved him all over the place. In 2015 and 2016, I thought they were moving him around because they expected him to grow into a great player, and they wanted to expose him to a lot of things. However, I think in 2016 and 2017 the Longhorns coaches realized Malik didn't excel at any position.

 

Malik lacks anticipation and instincts to play MIKE in the NFL. He doesn't have any pass rush skills off the edge. He is not strong enough to bull rush off the edge. Doesn't set the edge well. 

 

He does tackle very well. I think there is some athletic ability to work with, but it's going to take time to teach him 1 position. Moving him around all over the place is not helping him. He has to run well at the combine for any of it to matter. 

 

I think he is a 43 WILL or a 34 WILL in the NFL, but he doesn't appear to have the instincts or the speed to be great. I think a team could coach him up and make him decent, as long as the speed isn't sub-par. 

 

Ah I understand now.

 

Just an FYI Jefferson was a 4.38-9 guy at recruitment.  Just recently he had drills with Barkley and had no issue keeping up with him in terms of speed.  He is often referred to as one of the most athletic and fastest linebackers in the country.  I just don't think speed will be an issue. 

 

They moved him all over the place mainly because Bedford in Texas was a terrible DC.  Jefferson wasn't the only one who was moved around everyone in that defense never learned a position because they wanted everyone to be jacks of all trades.  In 2016-2017 there was a coaching change... In 2017 Orlando started to put guys in spots where they could actually learn and play.  Look at Elliot.  If he had been given a chance to play safety his entire career in Texas he might be in the same breath as Thomas coming into this draft.  

 

I do agree Malik lacks instincts but I don't agree that he lacks anticipation.  He reads average and and hits holes well the issue is it seems his football IQ is a tad low (most likely due to a terrible DC who didn't understand the game himself and trying to play 4 or 5 positions in his first 2 years).  Also I believe he sets the edge well but does not have bend.  

 

I agree with your final assessment that his spot is WILL.  He isn't ever going to be an elite pass rusher but he can be a great gap and coverage linebacker. Jefferson to me is a more potential pick and doesn't deserve a first round grade but I'd give him a 2nd no question purely based on how much he improved this past year when given structure. 

 

It's of my opinion he should have stayed in Texas one more year. 

[BlueShoe]

1 hour ago, Surge89 said:

 

Ah I understand now.

 

Just an FYI Jefferson was a 4.38-9 guy at recruitment.  Just recently he had drills with Barkley and had no issue keeping up with him in terms of speed.  He is often referred to as one of the most athletic and fastest linebackers in the country.  I just don't think speed will be an issue. 

 

They moved him all over the place mainly because Bedford in Texas was a terrible DC.  Jefferson wasn't the only one who was moved around everyone in that defense never learned a position because they wanted everyone to be jacks of all trades.  In 2016-2017 there was a coaching change... In 2017 Orlando started to put guys in spots where they could actually learn and play.  Look at Elliot.  If he had been given a chance to play safety his entire career in Texas he might be in the same breath as Thomas coming into this draft.  

 

I do agree Malik lacks instincts but I don't agree that he lacks anticipation.  He reads average and and hits holes well the issue is it seems his football IQ is a tad low (most likely due to a terrible DC who didn't understand the game himself and trying to play 4 or 5 positions in his first 2 years).  Also I believe he sets the edge well but does not have bend.  

 

I agree with your final assessment that his spot is WILL.  He isn't ever going to be an elite pass rusher but he can be a great gap and coverage linebacker. Jefferson to me is a more potential pick and doesn't deserve a first round grade but I'd give him a 2nd no question purely based on how much he improved this past year when given structure. 

 

It's of my opinion he should have stayed in Texas one more year. 

 

He was highly recruited out of high school. There was a lot of buzz surrounding him.

 

If he runs fast at the combine then there is something to work with. He plays very slow though. #45 Wheeler even looks faster than Malik.  

 

If Malik runs a sub 4.4 at the combine then he must really be thinking a lot on the field. Maybe an injury holding him back. Maybe the fear of another concussion. Something is causing him to play slow.

 

Maybe trying to process all the different positions is slowing him down. It would make the most sense. He needs to run well at the combine. If he does then the mental stuff can be overcome. 

 

I re-watched his K-State game last night, and Malik does not play fast. There was 1 play where he turned on the speed, and the announcers liked it (3:32).

 

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/10/16/malik-jefferson-vs-kansas-state-2017/

[dgambill]

It's a scenario that COULD play out...but if I'm moving back I want a future first rd pick for doing it. If I'm giving up the player I covet (Chubb, Barkley, etc etc) whomever that guy is I'm getting a premium for giving up the highest non-qb on the board. I would move back for 6, 37, and future first. If I thought I could get my highest rated player on the board then I just draft them....I don't move back....and if I'm moving back I'm getting a future first so I have ammo next year to do something special. So...would the Jets do that...probably not just to move up a couple spots...or...they could start sweating...and maybe they give in. Either way then I'm happy....but I'm not happy if I move back to 6 and miss my guy just for a couple second round picks. Just my opinion and probably not shared by everyone. If I want to move up and get someone in the second then I have can use my 3rd rd plus to do it. I like Nelson but in that scenario I wouldn't be happy. If I am moving out of the top 10 then I would be thrilled to land Nelson....but then again we are DEFINATELY talking a future 1st.

[BlueShoe]

2 hours ago, dgambill said:

It's a scenario that COULD play out...but if I'm moving back I want a future first rd pick for doing it. If I'm giving up the player I covet (Chubb, Barkley, etc etc) whomever that guy is I'm getting a premium for giving up the highest non-qb on the board. I would move back for 6, 37, and future first. If I thought I could get my highest rated player on the board then I just draft them....I don't move back....and if I'm moving back I'm getting a future first so I have ammo next year to do something special. So...would the Jets do that...probably not just to move up a couple spots...or...they could start sweating...and maybe they give in. Either way then I'm happy....but I'm not happy if I move back to 6 and miss my guy just for a couple second round picks. Just my opinion and probably not shared by everyone. If I want to move up and get someone in the second then I have can use my 3rd rd plus to do it. I like Nelson but in that scenario I wouldn't be happy. If I am moving out of the top 10 then I would be thrilled to land Nelson....but then again we are DEFINATELY talking a future 1st.

 

I think the idea would be for Chris Ballard to have 3 players he would be okay with. 

 

I think in this scenario those players would be Barkley, Chubb, and Nelson. If that is his stance then I totally agree with it. I am 100% okay with us taking Nelson at #6 overall.

 

That is the key in these types of situations. Ballard would need 3 players on the board, that he is okay with taking at No. 6 overall.

 

Don't rule out Davenport there either. 

[dgambill]

4 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I think the idea would be for Chris Ballard to have 3 players he would be okay with. 

 

I think in this scenario those players would be Barkley, Chubb, and Nelson. If that is his stance then I totally agree with it. I am 100% okay with us taking Nelson at #6 overall.

 

That is the key in these types of situations. Ballard would need 3 players on the board, that he is okay with taking at No. 6 overall.

 

Don't rule out Davenport there either. 

I don’t think I could pass on Chubb or Barkley without a future first rd pick in any scenerio. It’s a lot to request but that is where I draw the line. I can’t give up a player I feel can be a real franchise difference maker without some heavy capital for next year. I love Nelson as a player...but I don’t think he is a game changer. Guards don’t block the opposing teams best player and it isn’t a position I don’t think I can’t find later in the draft or by converting a tackle. If he would have been there last year at 15 that’s one thing...but at 6...if that is the best player on the board for us I’m pretty disappointed. To miss out on a Fitzpatrick or Chubb or Barkley....personally I just can’t do that without more in return. Certainly it’s plausible it could turn out that way.

[BlueShoe]

16 minutes ago, dgambill said:

I don’t think I could pass on Chubb or Barkley without a future first rd pick in any scenerio. It’s a lot to request but that is where I draw the line. I can’t give up a player I feel can be a real franchise difference maker without some heavy capital for next year. I love Nelson as a player...but I don’t think he is a game changer. Guards don’t block the opposing teams best player and it isn’t a position I don’t think I can’t find later in the draft or by converting a tackle. If he would have been there last year at 15 that’s one thing...but at 6...if that is the best player on the board for us I’m pretty disappointed. To miss out on a Fitzpatrick or Chubb or Barkley....personally I just can’t do that without more in return. Certainly it’s plausible it could turn out that way.

 

That’s where different philosophies come in. Some GMs might see it your way and some will see it my way. 

 

Personally, I don’t put much weight in positional value as far as where to draft players. If the player is the BPA and fits a need then I am pulling the trigger. I think Nelson is a top 5 player in this entire draft. I think he improves our team on Day 1. So I would draft him at #6 in a heartbeat. 

[dgambill]

8 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

That’s where different philosophies come in. Some GMs might see it your way and some will see it my way. 

 

Personally, I don’t put much weight in positional value as far as where to draft players. If the player is the BPA and fits a need then I am pulling the trigger. I think Nelson is a top 5 player in this entire draft. I think he improves our team on Day 1. So I would draft him at #6 in a heartbeat. 

Yeah...totally understandable people might feel differently. Heck I'm just a regular joe that has played and watch a lot of sports....nothing special in my accessment or any qualifications to make these assumptions. Just years of watching and personal gut feelings. If a guard is a top 5 player in the entire draft I'm feeling a little sad for this draft. I'm pretty hopeful though that the best player on our board when we draft is a defensive playmaker. Every position is important but I can find a replacement level guard much easier then a pass rusher, corner, or left tackle. It would be much nicer if we could lock in a tackle or ER. We just don't draft up here very often where you have an excellent chance to find a face of the franchise type player and we end up with a very good guard.....something that in most years you could easily take the best guard in the draft in the 20s that leaves me discouraged. Don't get me wrong there is nothing wrong with Nelson...and I'm all for building the trenches...I just would prefer to use my hopefully one silver bullet on a position that effects the game in a bigger way. I believe Nelson is about a sure thing as you get (barring injuries) and is the most complete player at the position he plays but he just plays a position I feel like you can more easily find good talent at. You can draft the best guard (most come off the board later in the first), many times slide a tackle inside, get one in free agency (how many elite pass rushers make it to that), or you can even trade for one without selling the farm. An elite pass rusher....you probably need to draft one....and if you don't get one at the top of the draft...you probably lucked into him or he really developed late.