Aikman Efficiency Ratings, as of week 4

[BlueShoe]

Colts are 5th ranked overall. We are 2nd in offense and 11th on defense. This is the highest I have ever seen our defense ranked in his statistics. That is not to say we haven't been higher (just that I don't remember it), but we are usually in the 20's through last. 

 

http://www.aikman.com/AikmanEfficiencyRatings/tabid/274/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/48/Aikman-Efficiency-Ratings-as-of-week-4.aspx

 

This weeks opponent, the Seahawks, are ranked 4th and the game is played in our house. I like it!

 

Seahawks offense is ranked 13 and defense is ranked 2nd.

 

Even on paper it is a close game.

 

Get ready for a nail-biter folks.

[Joe Glass]

This will be a blow out, Colts win easy.

[BlueShoe]

This will be a blow out, Colts win easy.

 

The Seahawks are a formidable opponent and deserve the ranking. If we blow the Seahawks out then I will be shocked. Not to say we cannot, but it is not likely.

 

We have common opponents so I believe the rankings will hold true unless one team has a great special teams day, which would likely favor them. 

[colts_mp]

they  have the Panthers at 3rd and the 0-4 Bucs at 14.  We shouldn't be ranked ahead of the Saints right now either.  Can't put much stock into these ratings.

[Fx Stryker]

How are his rankings determined?

[BlueShoe]

How are his rankings determined?

 

I am not 100% sure, but his ranking are always more accurate than using yards like ESPN and NFL.com.

[BlueShoe]

they  have the Panthers at 3rd and the 0-4 Bucs at 14.  We shouldn't be ranked ahead of the Saints right now either.  Can't put much stock into these ratings.

 

The Panthers have a good offense and a good defense, but they are not putting it all together to win games. The same happened to the Lions last year. It was also a trend we witnessed with the Chargers for several years. 

[SkyBane]

The Panthers have a good offense and a good defense, but they are not putting it all together to win games. The same happened to the Lions last year. It was also a trend we witnessed with the Chargers for several years. 

The opposite was also true of the Colt's last year. Their efficiency ratings on offense and defense weren't great, but they somehow won games. Even more baffling is they had a winning record with negative point differential. 

 

"This season, teams with the higher combined Aikman rating have won 82.6 percent of the time, but the teams with the higher offensive yardage in a game have won 67 percent of the time. "That's what validates it," Aikman said. "The measurements we use are inherent in teams being successful."

The Aikman statistics are yards per rush and yards per pass; third-down conversions; total first downs; adjusted points (total scoring minus points from returns and safeties); red-zone performance; and turnovers. They are, in essence, flip-flopped to generate the defensive A.E.R.'s."

-New York Times

 

Essentially, its a weighted system that grades offenses and defenses based on their efficiency rather than raw numbers. It's an advanced metric meant to determine whether the offense is effective or just fast and neat looking. 

[colts_mp]

The opposite was also true of the Colt's last year. Their efficiency ratings on offense and defense weren't great, but they somehow won games. Even more baffling is they had a winning record with negative point differential. 

 

 

if you look at the last poll from last year you will see us ranked below the Cleveland Browns.

[BlueShoe]

if you look at the last poll from last year you will see us ranked below the Cleveland Browns.

 

Obviously there will be some imperfections as it is hard to know which way a ball will bounce in a game and impossible to measure the want-to from week to week. 

 

Overall, I believe Aikman is on to something with his ratings. More often than not, he is right. It is much better than only grading yards.

[jameszeigler834]

I agree on the fact colts will most likely win but it wont be a blow out by any means remember what i said about being cocky or over confident thats what that was right there. But i say colts are for real if they beat their second NFC west opponet in three weeks what im getting at here is i hope the colts win just to prove to everybody else including the supposed experts that the colts are for sure for real.