QBASE : Winston Could Be A Bust?

[ColtRider]

According to QBASE, Jameis Winston is projected as a 61% chance of being a bust.

Do you agree with these analytics?

Go ...

[wig]

Yes, but not just for his on the field ratings.  

[BrentMc11]

I really want each player to have a chance to succeed.  Therefore I cannot predict someone to be a bust before they have played a down in the NFL.  It is NOT fair to any player, let alone Jameis Winston.  

[ColtRider]

Yes, but not just for his on the field ratings.

Anyone interested in reading the software projections on this go to :

insider.espn.go.com - Projections show split paths for Winston, Mariota

[ColtRider]

I really want each player to have a chance to succeed.  Therefore I cannot predict someone to be a bust before they have played a down in the NFL.  It is NOT fair to any player, let alone Jameis Winston.

Agreed, BrentMc11! I just put this thread up from a "software" analysis. Thought it would be interesting. It's liken to super computers engaging NFL teams from the past v. NFL teams now/present/past. Players as well. Team analysis, etc.etc. Input from all aspects are supposedly put in and ending with results.

[BrentMc11]

Agreed, BrentMc11! I just put this thread up from a "software" analysis. Thought it would be interesting. It's liken to super computers engaging NFL teams from the past v. NFL teams now/present/past. Players as well. Team analysis, etc.etc. Input from all aspects are supposedly put in and ending with results.

Your topic is fine and has 'the software.'  I come from a personal approach to this and do not believe in predicting 'busts.' Carry on...

[ColtRider]

Your topic is fine and has 'the software.'  I come from a personal approach to this and do not believe in predicting 'busts.' Carry on...

Gotcha. However, sometimes (more often than not) these analogies are right on the money. I do agree with you, though. I am the same way. Want to see it before I believe it. It's just a cool debating tool.

[crazycolt1]

History tells us that the only way to see if a player is going to be a bust is seeing him play for an extended time frame. And even then it can change. The NFL has players right now who at one time were thought to be bust. Sometimes it take a new team or coach to bring out the potential in a player. There was a time when quite a few thought Leaf was going to be better than Manning. Same thing with Luck and RG3. The list is endless.

[BlueShoe]

According to QBASE, Jameis Winston is projected as a 61% chance of being a bust.

Do you agree with these analytics?

Go ...

 

Not only do I agree; I believe there is about a 100% chance he will be a bust. I would not draft him.

[BleedBlu8792]

If we are taking everything into account - off the field issues - then yes it's possible that he doesn't pan out. However, if we are talking about just football, then I see him being very successful. He handles pressure very well, great arm strength to make all NFL-type throws, intelligent, and has all the physical traits (size) that are wanted. He's really a step or two ahead of all of the other QB's in this class as far as being prepared for the NFL.

 

Mariotta, to me, has the higher % to bust. As I've pointed out before, the NFL has seen just two successful Pac-12 QB's in the last 30 years with those being Elway and Rodgers. Luck is on his way, and will more than likely be that 3rd guy, but I will let him get another handful of years in before we start proclaiming him. Mariotta took advantage of a weak conference and played in a system (basically an extreme "hurry-up" offense) that was built to wear opposing defenses down. Now, he obviously has the "hurry-up" offense down, which is good and I'm not saying there is anything wrong with the system he played in, but when the offense was made to slow down ie. put in 3rd and long situations, Mariotta and that offense would fall on it's face. Ohio State showed that in the Title game. Mariotta was really good on the early downs but once Ohio State started pressuring and getting them into 3rd and long situations, Oregon's offense was pretty much done for.

 

Only ONE offense in the entire NFL operates like Oregon's and we all know who that is and that's the Eagles. If the Eagles do get Mariotta, I will take away the pre-bust label on him because I think he could be a successful QB playing in that offense due to it being tailored made for him. However, he's still going to have to adjust to reading NFL defenses. On top of that, his arm strength is pretty average. I can see him accumulating quite a few picks due to the ball being late getting to the receiver/spot. If he goes to any other team in the NFL, other than the Eagles in my opinion, he's going to be a deer in headlights. Asking him to player in a slower pace offense, and actually read an NFL defense, is going to take some time for him. If he gets to anywhere near the level of Alex Smith I would consider that quite an achievement.

 

Mariotta is much closer to Hundley (Mariotta being the better of the two) in terms of skillset, than he is Winston.

[ColtRider]

History tells us that the only way to see if a player is going to be a bust is seeing him play for an extended time frame. And even then it can change. The NFL has players right now who at one time were thought to be bust. Sometimes it take a new team or coach to bring out the potential in a player. There was a time when quite a few thought Leaf was going to be better than Manning. Same thing with Luck and RG3. The list is endless.

Nice, crazycolt1!

[BrentMc11]

History tells us that the only way to see if a player is going to be a bust is seeing him play for an extended time frame. And even then it can change. The NFL has players right now who at one time were thought to be bust. Sometimes it take a new team or coach to bring out the potential in a player. There was a time when quite a few thought Leaf was going to be better than Manning. Same thing with Luck and RG3. The list is endless.

Well stated Crazy!!