Final Mock Off-Season

[Caleb3502]

Last mock I’ll put out before the legal tampering period. I was just going to leave it at one mock, but I figured I’d tweak some things and change some things around after the Panthers traded up to #1.  

 

or contracts and to keep track of cap space, I used Overthecap. For lists of free agents, I used Spotrac. I used PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator to simulate the draft. Normally, I use Draft Network’s mock draft simulator but that is currently under construction, per their website, However, I still used the Draft Network’s prospect information tabs to research more about the draft prospects. 

 

2023 Cap Space (per Overthecap): $12,230,976 | Cap Space in 2024: $123,904,874

 

Player-Related Trades

 

Bears Receive: CB Kenny Moore 

Colts Receive: #103 

 

Cardinals Receive: #4, #79, 2024 3rd Round Pick, C Ryan Kelly

Colts Receive: #3, 2024 5th Round Pick 

 

2023 Cap Space after Trades: $30,195,751 | 2024 Cap Space after Trades: $136,279,874

 

Notes

- Kenny Moore is in the last year of his deal and was not too pleased last off-season when he did not get a new one. He fits a lot better with Eberflus than he did with Bradley. 

- With the continued regression last year and his cap hit, I think it makes sense to move on from Ryan Kelly. The Cardinals are in need of a new center with Rodney Judson set to retire. 

- I kept Gilmore around for the mock due to the inexperience at CB with the last mock, but I still feel that a trade might be on the table for the soon-to-be 33-year-old CB. 

 

Releases

 

QB Matt Ryan - Saves $17,205,882

 

QB Nick Foles - Saves $2,100,000

 

TE Mo Alie-Cox - Saves $2,920,000

 

2023 Cap Space after Releases: $52,421,633 | 2024 Cap Space after Releases: $142,199,874

 

Notes 

 

- The QB releases are pretty straightforward; the Colts will not be needing the services of Ryan or Foles in 2023. 

- Mo Alie-Cox is a new release for this mock, and it’s mainly due to the logjam at the TE position. With Woods, Granson, and Ogletree, the Colts are getting younger and cheaper at the TE position.   

 

Restructures 

 

T Braden Smith - Saves $9,946,667 in 2023 | Adds $4,973,333 in 2024 & 2025 

 

2023 Cap Space after Restructure: $62,368,300 | 2024 Cap Space after Restructure: $137,226,541

  

Extensions

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr - 3 Years/$62M (Includes $40M Guaranteed and $20M in Signing Bonus) 2023 Cap Hit - $8,948,971 | 2024 Cap Hit: $21,055,000 | 2025 Cap Hit: $18,500,000 | 2026 Cap Hit: $17,455,000 | $40M Guaranteed = 2022 Salary + 2023 Salary + Signing Bonus 

 

RB Jonathan Taylor - 4 Years/$64M (Includes $36M Guaranteed and $22M in Signing Bonus) - 2023 2023 Cap Hit - $9,517,482 | 2024 Cap Hit: $13,282,518 | 2025 Cap Hit: $15,850,000 | 2026 Cap Hit: $15,650,000 | 2027 Cap Hit: $14,817,482 | $36M Guaranteed = 2022 Salary + 2023 Salary + Signing Bonus 

 

2023 Cap Space after Extensions: $52,968,300 | 2024 Cap Space after Extensions: $102,889,023  

 

Notes 

- I left the extensions unchanged from the last mock. Both Taylor and Pittman Jr will command expensive extensions, but I think it is in the Colts’ best interest to have their top offensive playmakers under contract while they have a young QB on a rookie deal.  

 

Re-sign

 

Unrestricted Free Agents

DE Ben Banogu

CB Tony Brown 

WR Parris Campbell - 2 Years/$9M | 2023 Cap Hit: $4,750,000 | 2024 Cap Hit: $4,250,000

DT Byron Cowart

WR Ashton Dulin - 1 Year/$2.75M

CB Brandon Facyson 

P Matt Haack 

T Dennis Kelly 

DE Tyquan Lewis 

K Chase McLaughlin - 2 Years/$8M | $4M Cap Hit in 2023 & 2024 

S Rodney McLeod - 1 Year/$4M 

DE Yannick Ngakoue 

MLB Bobby Okereke  

T Matt Pryor 

OLB E.J. Speed - 2 Years/$5.5M | $2.75M Cap Hit in 2023 & 2024

S Armani Watts 

 

Restricted Free Agents 

DE Khalid Kareem 

 

Exclusive Rights Free Agents 

T Carter O’Connell

FB Jake Funk 

 

2023 Cap Space Remaining: $39,068,300 | 2024 Cap Space: $91,889,023

 

Notes

- Spotrac projects Parris Campbell to get $2.5M this offseason, but I think a two-year deal at $4.5/year is fair. We finally got a healthy season with him and was pretty decent all things considered. Probably not a long-term option but I think he’s earned the opportunity to show what he can do with improved QB play. 

- I signed back Ngakoue in the first mock, so I decided to switch it up and let him walk in this version. The free agent EDGE class is not spectacular by any means, but I also don’t know if it is worth paying $12M to $15M per year to a one-dimensional player. I’d understand if they opt to retain Ngakoue, though I think it serves them well to see if they can bring a DE in that can provide better run support. 

- I still think it’s possible McLeod will have better opportunities elsewhere on contending teams, but if he is willing to come back, he needs to be retained. He was one of the most consistent and dependable players on the team in 2022. 

- With Okereke likely pricing himself out of town with reports of a strong market for his services, bringing back EJ Speed is important to fill his spot when the Colts are in their base defense. I Okereke is a really good player, but Franklin is cheaper and the Colts use 2-LB sets most of the time. 

 

Free Agents

 

EDGE Frank Clark - 2 Years/$25M ($12M Guaranteed | $9M Signing Bonus | 1 Voidable Year | 2023 Cap Hit - $11,500,000 | 2024 Cap Hit: $10,500,000)

 

Clark’s regular season stats for 2022 would suggest his best years as a pass rusher may be behind him, and that still might be true, but he did have 2.5 sacks during the Chiefs' Super Bowl run. While he’s two years older than and had fewer sacks in 2022 than Yannick Ngakoue, Clark is a better run defender and provides a more balanced presence at the DE spot. For those who like PFF, Clark’s grade was 67.2 while Ngakoue's grade was 51.4. It’s possible Clark would prefer a contending team over the Colts, but for the sake of a mock, Clark would be a good short-term fix at DE as the Colts attempt to develop younger DE prospects.   

 

C Ethan Pocic - 3 Years/$22.5M ($10M Guaranteed | $6M Signing Bonus | 2023 Cap Hit: $8.5M | 2024 Cap Hit: $7.5M   

 

After an underwhelming start to his career in Seattle, Pocic had a career year in Cleveland in 2022. He allowed just two sacks and was penalized only one time while setting career bests in PFF blocking scores (79 overall: 71.5 pass & 79.2 run). In my first mock, I went the veteran guard route (Isaac Seumalo) and rookie center (Olusegun Oluwatimi). After some thought, I figured it might be better for a rookie QB to have an experienced center, so I’m opting to go rookie at right guard for this mock. 

 

CB Byron Murphy - 3 Years/$25.5M ($12M Guaranteed | $6M Signing Bonus | 2023 Cap Hit: $7.75M | 2024 Cap Hit: $8.75M)   

 

With the hypothetical Kenny Moore to Chicago trade, Colts need to fill the void at slot CB.  Murphy, still only 25, adds youth to the position and fits Bradley’s Cover 3 scheme better than Moore does. While he played in a heavy man coverage scheme under Vance Joseph, he is better suited to play zone coverage. From 2020 to 2022, his PFF zone coverage grades have been consistently better than his man coverage grades. Murphy has played both the boundary and slot in his time in the NFL, but I have him penciled in at slot CB for the time being. 

 

DT Solomon Thomas - 1 Year/$2.25M 

Thomas has never lived up to his draft position (#3 overall in 2017 with 10 career sacks), but he had a career year (3.5 sacks & 34 tackles) as a rotational 3-tech DT in Las Vegas under Gus Bradley.  

 

T Josh Wells - 1 Year/$2M 

Backup swing tackle to add some veteran insurance along the line. Wells has never been a consistent starter in his career, but he’s been a decent spot starter that has filled in at both left and right tackle. 

 

QB Chase Daniel - 1 Year/$2M 

Veteran backup QB that might not even dress on gamedays, but I feel it’s important to have a long-tenured QB to help assimilate a young QB into the NFL. 

 

CB Amani Oruwariye - 1 Year/$1.25M 

From a rising star in 2021 to being graded as the worst CB in the league in 2022 (120 out of 120 on PFF), Oruwariye’s time in Detroit is most likely done. Despite his extremely poor play in 2022, he has the physical tools to regain his 2021 form. He’s worth a flier on a team in need of more CB depth.

 

2023 Cap Space Remaining: $10,152,145 | 2024 Cap Space: $65,139,023

 

Colts Key Free Agents in 2024 

DT Grover Stewart 

CB Isaiah Rodgers 

S Julian Blackmon 

P Rigoberto Sanchez

LS Luke Rhodes  

C Danny Pinter 

RB Zack Moss 

  

NFL Draft

 

* = acquired through proposed trades 

 

*Round 1 Pick 3: QB Anthony Richardson - Florida 

 

With the Panthers trade up to #1, I expect the Panthers to take Stroud and the Texans to take Young. I expect the Cardinals will be shopping the 3rd pick, so I think it is prudent for the Colts to move up a spot to make sure they have their choice of Levis and Richardson. Personally, I’m not very high on Will Levis, and I feel more comfortable with taking the gamble on Richardson’s athletic gifts and potential. My #1 target has been C.J. Stroud throughout the off-season so far, though the chances of him being there beyond #2 seem very slim now. 

 

I won’t argue that while Richardson has the biggest ceiling, he has the lowest floor. We all know the athletic tools are there (RAS score of 10) and that he has a combination of great speed and above-average arm talent. Unlocking Richardson as a star QB is going to all come down to the Colts' coaching staff’s ability to work with his mechanics to help sort out the accuracy issues. With Steichen’s history with Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, he gives them a fighting chance at getting the best out of Richardson, and the best of Richardson can be better than any of the other QBs in this class.   

 

TRADE

Colts Receive: #42, #111

Browns Receive: #35 

 

*Round 2 Pick 42: G Steve Avila - TCU 

 

A Ballard trade-down in the second round almost feels inevitable to recoup a pick lost in the trade-up with Arizona. I initially was going to go EDGE at this pick, but I felt better about the EDGE prospects down the board compared to the interior offensive line prospects. Avila offers position flexibility: second-team all-conference 2021 as a center and first-team all-Big 12 honors as a center in 2022. Avila is a large man at 332 lb, enabling him to win his matchups with strength and power. In his final season at TCU, he did not allow a single sack. His lateral agility is not the best, so he may struggle against speed rushers, whom he hopefully will not face as often on the interior. He was also named a team captain in 2022, which is usually a benchmark of a Ballard pick.  

 

TRADE

Colts Receive #97

Commanders Receive: #106, #139

 

*Round 3 Pick 97: DE Zach Harrison - Ohio State

 

Ballard loves taking EDGE prospects on Day 2 of the draft, and Harrison fits the mold for what he covets at DE: long arms, over 250 lb, and great athleticism. Harrison had an arm length of 36.25 inches, which was the longest for any EDGE rusher at the combine since 2014. Harrison did not do any on-field testing at the combine, though he reportedly is in the 4.5 range for the 40 time. He should help provide depth along a thin line and can rotate in as Tyquan Lewis has for the past few years.  

 

TRADE 

Colts Receive: #130, #138, #204

Bills Receive: #103, #222 

 

*Round 4 Pick 111: CB Jakorian Bennett - Maryland 

 

Almost went with a few different guys in this spot, but ultimately went with Bennett due to his positional flexibility. He is probably best suited to play on the outside in Colt's scheme but is able to move all around the field. He nearly meets Ballard’s arm length requirement at 31 ⅞ inches and has 4.3 40 speed. He has good ball skills, with 27 pass deflections in the past two seasons, and is a willing tackler in run support. 

 

*Round 4 Pick 130: WR Jonathan Mingo - Ole Miss 

 

Mingo checks all the boxes for the prototypical WR that Ballard covets. At 6’2” and 220 lb, Mingo is a strong slot WR that possesses great athletic ability, exemplified by his RAS score of 9.93. While I brought Campbell back in this mock, I feel that Mingo can be the long-term answer. 

 

*Round 5 Pick 138: LB Dorian Williams - Tulane 

 

Williams was a consistent presence for Tulane on defense and special teams. He has a solid frame with good length but sometimes struggles to take on contact. He played a lot at MIKE at Tulane, but profiles more as a WILL in the NFL. He has the physical tools to be a starter but needs to play faster and deconstruct blocks sooner. He profiles as a decent reserve WILL that will be an impactful special teamer. 

 

Round 5 Pick 163: DT Brodric Martin - Western Kentucky 

 

With Stewart at the end of his deal and nearing 30, and no D-line depth behind him, the Colts need to add a rotational interior defensive lineman at some point in the draft. A large man at 330 lb, Martin can serve as a rotation 1-tech for run support. He doesn’t have much as a pass rusher other than a bull rush but should be a welcomed addition for his run-stuffing.  

 

*Round 6 Pick 204: T Asim Richards - North Carolina  

 

Richards serves as a swing tackle who can also play guard if needed. Very experienced with over 2,500 snaps in college. Plays with a nasty streak and is very good in the run game. He’s limited in the passing game, so he’d most likely play on the right side.  

 

Round 7 Pick 238: TE Brenton Strange - Penn State 

 

Despite already having 3 TEs on the roster, the Colts love taking tight end prospects. Strange is more of a traditional TE, though his in-line blocking is not perfect. He has decent hands, good run-after-the-catch ability, and is an overall good athlete (RAS Score of 8.75). 

 

Roster

 

Bold = Free Agent/Trade Acquisition 

Italics = Rookie 

 

Offense

QB: Anthony Richardson, Sam Ehlinger, Chase Daniel 

RB: Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Deon Jackson 

WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Ashton Dulin

WR: Alec Pierce, Mike Strachan 

Slot: Parris Campbell, Jonathan Mingo

TE: Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Brenton Strange   

LT: Bernhard Raimann, Josh Wells  

LG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries 

C: Ethan Pocic, Wesley French 

RG: Steve Avila, Danny Pinter 

RT: Braden Smith, Asim Richards 

 

Defense

DE: Frank Clark, Dayo Odeyingbo, Kameron Cline 

DT: DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, Eric Johnson 

DT: Grover Stewart, Brodric Martin, Chris Williams

DE: Kwity Paye, Zach Harrison, Rashod Berry 

OLB: Darius Leonard, Dorian Williams, Cameron McGrone 

MLB: Zaire Franklin, JoJo Domann 

OLB: E.J. Speed, Grant Stuard 

CB: Isaiah Rodgers Sr, Amani Oruwariye, Kevin Tolliver 

CB: Stephon Gilmore, Dallis Flowers, Darrell Baker Jr 

Nickel CB: Byron Murphy Jr, Jakorian Bennett  

FS: Julian Blackmon, Rodney Thomas 

SS: Rodney McLeod, Nick Cross, Trevor Denbow   

 

Special teams

K: Chase McLaughlin 

P: Rigoberto Sanchez

LS: Luke Rhodes

[2006Coltsbestever]

Nice work, I would definitely take Richardson over Levis. I like Avila as well, we need interior help on the line. I would also re-sign Campbell, I agree.

[Dark Superman]

20 hours ago, Caleb3502 said:

Last mock I’ll put out before the legal tampering period. I was just going to leave it at one mock, but I figured I’d tweak some things and change some things around after the Panthers traded up to #1.  

 

or contracts and to keep track of cap space, I used Overthecap. For lists of free agents, I used Spotrac. I used PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator to simulate the draft. Normally, I use Draft Network’s mock draft simulator but that is currently under construction, per their website, However, I still used the Draft Network’s prospect information tabs to research more about the draft prospects. 

 

2023 Cap Space (per Overthecap): $12,230,976 | Cap Space in 2024: $123,904,874

 

Player-Related Trades

 

Bears Receive: CB Kenny Moore 

Colts Receive: #103 

 

Cardinals Receive: #4, #79, 2024 3rd Round Pick, C Ryan Kelly

Colts Receive: #3, 2024 5th Round Pick 

 

2023 Cap Space after Trades: $30,195,751 | 2024 Cap Space after Trades: $136,279,874

 

Notes

- Kenny Moore is in the last year of his deal and was not too pleased last off-season when he did not get a new one. He fits a lot better with Eberflus than he did with Bradley. 

- With the continued regression last year and his cap hit, I think it makes sense to move on from Ryan Kelly. The Cardinals are in need of a new center with Rodney Judson set to retire. 

- I kept Gilmore around for the mock due to the inexperience at CB with the last mock, but I still feel that a trade might be on the table for the soon-to-be 33-year-old CB. 

 

Releases

 

QB Matt Ryan - Saves $17,205,882

 

QB Nick Foles - Saves $2,100,000

 

TE Mo Alie-Cox - Saves $2,920,000

 

2023 Cap Space after Releases: $52,421,633 | 2024 Cap Space after Releases: $142,199,874

 

Notes 

 

- The QB releases are pretty straightforward; the Colts will not be needing the services of Ryan or Foles in 2023. 

- Mo Alie-Cox is a new release for this mock, and it’s mainly due to the logjam at the TE position. With Woods, Granson, and Ogletree, the Colts are getting younger and cheaper at the TE position.   

 

Restructures 

 

T Braden Smith - Saves $9,946,667 in 2023 | Adds $4,973,333 in 2024 & 2025 

 

2023 Cap Space after Restructure: $62,368,300 | 2024 Cap Space after Restructure: $137,226,541

  

Extensions

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr - 3 Years/$62M (Includes $40M Guaranteed and $20M in Signing Bonus) 2023 Cap Hit - $8,948,971 | 2024 Cap Hit: $21,055,000 | 2025 Cap Hit: $18,500,000 | 2026 Cap Hit: $17,455,000 | $40M Guaranteed = 2022 Salary + 2023 Salary + Signing Bonus 

 

RB Jonathan Taylor - 4 Years/$64M (Includes $36M Guaranteed and $22M in Signing Bonus) - 2023 2023 Cap Hit - $9,517,482 | 2024 Cap Hit: $13,282,518 | 2025 Cap Hit: $15,850,000 | 2026 Cap Hit: $15,650,000 | 2027 Cap Hit: $14,817,482 | $36M Guaranteed = 2022 Salary + 2023 Salary + Signing Bonus 

 

2023 Cap Space after Extensions: $52,968,300 | 2024 Cap Space after Extensions: $102,889,023  

 

Notes 

- I left the extensions unchanged from the last mock. Both Taylor and Pittman Jr will command expensive extensions, but I think it is in the Colts’ best interest to have their top offensive playmakers under contract while they have a young QB on a rookie deal.  

 

Re-sign

 

Unrestricted Free Agents

DE Ben Banogu

CB Tony Brown 

WR Parris Campbell - 2 Years/$9M | 2023 Cap Hit: $4,750,000 | 2024 Cap Hit: $4,250,000

DT Byron Cowart

WR Ashton Dulin - 1 Year/$2.75M

CB Brandon Facyson 

P Matt Haack 

T Dennis Kelly 

DE Tyquan Lewis 

K Chase McLaughlin - 2 Years/$8M | $4M Cap Hit in 2023 & 2024 

S Rodney McLeod - 1 Year/$4M 

DE Yannick Ngakoue 

MLB Bobby Okereke  

T Matt Pryor 

OLB E.J. Speed - 2 Years/$5.5M | $2.75M Cap Hit in 2023 & 2024

S Armani Watts 

 

Restricted Free Agents 

DE Khalid Kareem 

 

Exclusive Rights Free Agents 

T Carter O’Connell

FB Jake Funk 

 

2023 Cap Space Remaining: $39,068,300 | 2024 Cap Space: $91,889,023

 

Notes

- Spotrac projects Parris Campbell to get $2.5M this offseason, but I think a two-year deal at $4.5/year is fair. We finally got a healthy season with him and was pretty decent all things considered. Probably not a long-term option but I think he’s earned the opportunity to show what he can do with improved QB play. 

- I signed back Ngakoue in the first mock, so I decided to switch it up and let him walk in this version. The free agent EDGE class is not spectacular by any means, but I also don’t know if it is worth paying $12M to $15M per year to a one-dimensional player. I’d understand if they opt to retain Ngakoue, though I think it serves them well to see if they can bring a DE in that can provide better run support. 

- I still think it’s possible McLeod will have better opportunities elsewhere on contending teams, but if he is willing to come back, he needs to be retained. He was one of the most consistent and dependable players on the team in 2022. 

- With Okereke likely pricing himself out of town with reports of a strong market for his services, bringing back EJ Speed is important to fill his spot when the Colts are in their base defense. I Okereke is a really good player, but Franklin is cheaper and the Colts use 2-LB sets most of the time. 

 

Free Agents

 

EDGE Frank Clark - 2 Years/$25M ($12M Guaranteed | $9M Signing Bonus | 1 Voidable Year | 2023 Cap Hit - $11,500,000 | 2024 Cap Hit: $10,500,000)

 

Clark’s regular season stats for 2022 would suggest his best years as a pass rusher may be behind him, and that still might be true, but he did have 2.5 sacks during the Chiefs' Super Bowl run. While he’s two years older than and had fewer sacks in 2022 than Yannick Ngakoue, Clark is a better run defender and provides a more balanced presence at the DE spot. For those who like PFF, Clark’s grade was 67.2 while Ngakoue's grade was 51.4. It’s possible Clark would prefer a contending team over the Colts, but for the sake of a mock, Clark would be a good short-term fix at DE as the Colts attempt to develop younger DE prospects.   

 

C Ethan Pocic - 3 Years/$22.5M ($10M Guaranteed | $6M Signing Bonus | 2023 Cap Hit: $8.5M | 2024 Cap Hit: $7.5M   

 

After an underwhelming start to his career in Seattle, Pocic had a career year in Cleveland in 2022. He allowed just two sacks and was penalized only one time while setting career bests in PFF blocking scores (79 overall: 71.5 pass & 79.2 run). In my first mock, I went the veteran guard route (Isaac Seumalo) and rookie center (Olusegun Oluwatimi). After some thought, I figured it might be better for a rookie QB to have an experienced center, so I’m opting to go rookie at right guard for this mock. 

 

CB Byron Murphy - 3 Years/$25.5M ($12M Guaranteed | $6M Signing Bonus | 2023 Cap Hit: $7.75M | 2024 Cap Hit: $8.75M)   

 

With the hypothetical Kenny Moore to Chicago trade, Colts need to fill the void at slot CB.  Murphy, still only 25, adds youth to the position and fits Bradley’s Cover 3 scheme better than Moore does. While he played in a heavy man coverage scheme under Vance Joseph, he is better suited to play zone coverage. From 2020 to 2022, his PFF zone coverage grades have been consistently better than his man coverage grades. Murphy has played both the boundary and slot in his time in the NFL, but I have him penciled in at slot CB for the time being. 

 

DT Solomon Thomas - 1 Year/$2.25M 

Thomas has never lived up to his draft position (#3 overall in 2017 with 10 career sacks), but he had a career year (3.5 sacks & 34 tackles) as a rotational 3-tech DT in Las Vegas under Gus Bradley.  

 

T Josh Wells - 1 Year/$2M 

Backup swing tackle to add some veteran insurance along the line. Wells has never been a consistent starter in his career, but he’s been a decent spot starter that has filled in at both left and right tackle. 

 

QB Chase Daniel - 1 Year/$2M 

Veteran backup QB that might not even dress on gamedays, but I feel it’s important to have a long-tenured QB to help assimilate a young QB into the NFL. 

 

CB Amani Oruwariye - 1 Year/$1.25M 

From a rising star in 2021 to being graded as the worst CB in the league in 2022 (120 out of 120 on PFF), Oruwariye’s time in Detroit is most likely done. Despite his extremely poor play in 2022, he has the physical tools to regain his 2021 form. He’s worth a flier on a team in need of more CB depth.

 

2023 Cap Space Remaining: $10,152,145 | 2024 Cap Space: $65,139,023

 

Colts Key Free Agents in 2024 

DT Grover Stewart 

CB Isaiah Rodgers 

S Julian Blackmon 

P Rigoberto Sanchez

LS Luke Rhodes  

C Danny Pinter 

RB Zack Moss 

  

NFL Draft

 

* = acquired through proposed trades 

 

*Round 1 Pick 3: QB Anthony Richardson - Florida 

 

With the Panthers trade up to #1, I expect the Panthers to take Stroud and the Texans to take Young. I expect the Cardinals will be shopping the 3rd pick, so I think it is prudent for the Colts to move up a spot to make sure they have their choice of Levis and Richardson. Personally, I’m not very high on Will Levis, and I feel more comfortable with taking the gamble on Richardson’s athletic gifts and potential. My #1 target has been C.J. Stroud throughout the off-season so far, though the chances of him being there beyond #2 seem very slim now. 

 

I won’t argue that while Richardson has the biggest ceiling, he has the lowest floor. We all know the athletic tools are there (RAS score of 10) and that he has a combination of great speed and above-average arm talent. Unlocking Richardson as a star QB is going to all come down to the Colts' coaching staff’s ability to work with his mechanics to help sort out the accuracy issues. With Steichen’s history with Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, he gives them a fighting chance at getting the best out of Richardson, and the best of Richardson can be better than any of the other QBs in this class.   

 

TRADE

Colts Receive: #42, #111

Browns Receive: #35 

 

*Round 2 Pick 42: G Steve Avila - TCU 

 

A Ballard trade-down in the second round almost feels inevitable to recoup a pick lost in the trade-up with Arizona. I initially was going to go EDGE at this pick, but I felt better about the EDGE prospects down the board compared to the interior offensive line prospects. Avila offers position flexibility: second-team all-conference 2021 as a center and first-team all-Big 12 honors as a center in 2022. Avila is a large man at 332 lb, enabling him to win his matchups with strength and power. In his final season at TCU, he did not allow a single sack. His lateral agility is not the best, so he may struggle against speed rushers, whom he hopefully will not face as often on the interior. He was also named a team captain in 2022, which is usually a benchmark of a Ballard pick.  

 

TRADE

Colts Receive #97

Commanders Receive: #106, #139

 

*Round 3 Pick 97: DE Zach Harrison - Ohio State

 

Ballard loves taking EDGE prospects on Day 2 of the draft, and Harrison fits the mold for what he covets at DE: long arms, over 250 lb, and great athleticism. Harrison had an arm length of 36.25 inches, which was the longest for any EDGE rusher at the combine since 2014. Harrison did not do any on-field testing at the combine, though he reportedly is in the 4.5 range for the 40 time. He should help provide depth along a thin line and can rotate in as Tyquan Lewis has for the past few years.  

 

TRADE 

Colts Receive: #130, #138, #204

Bills Receive: #103, #222 

 

*Round 4 Pick 111: CB Jakorian Bennett - Maryland 

 

Almost went with a few different guys in this spot, but ultimately went with Bennett due to his positional flexibility. He is probably best suited to play on the outside in Colt's scheme but is able to move all around the field. He nearly meets Ballard’s arm length requirement at 31 ⅞ inches and has 4.3 40 speed. He has good ball skills, with 27 pass deflections in the past two seasons, and is a willing tackler in run support. 

 

*Round 4 Pick 130: WR Jonathan Mingo - Ole Miss 

 

Mingo checks all the boxes for the prototypical WR that Ballard covets. At 6’2” and 220 lb, Mingo is a strong slot WR that possesses great athletic ability, exemplified by his RAS score of 9.93. While I brought Campbell back in this mock, I feel that Mingo can be the long-term answer. 

 

*Round 5 Pick 138: LB Dorian Williams - Tulane 

 

Williams was a consistent presence for Tulane on defense and special teams. He has a solid frame with good length but sometimes struggles to take on contact. He played a lot at MIKE at Tulane, but profiles more as a WILL in the NFL. He has the physical tools to be a starter but needs to play faster and deconstruct blocks sooner. He profiles as a decent reserve WILL that will be an impactful special teamer. 

 

Round 5 Pick 163: DT Brodric Martin - Western Kentucky 

 

With Stewart at the end of his deal and nearing 30, and no D-line depth behind him, the Colts need to add a rotational interior defensive lineman at some point in the draft. A large man at 330 lb, Martin can serve as a rotation 1-tech for run support. He doesn’t have much as a pass rusher other than a bull rush but should be a welcomed addition for his run-stuffing.  

 

*Round 6 Pick 204: T Asim Richards - North Carolina  

 

Richards serves as a swing tackle who can also play guard if needed. Very experienced with over 2,500 snaps in college. Plays with a nasty streak and is very good in the run game. He’s limited in the passing game, so he’d most likely play on the right side.  

 

Round 7 Pick 238: TE Brenton Strange - Penn State 

 

Despite already having 3 TEs on the roster, the Colts love taking tight end prospects. Strange is more of a traditional TE, though his in-line blocking is not perfect. He has decent hands, good run-after-the-catch ability, and is an overall good athlete (RAS Score of 8.75). 

 

Roster

 

Bold = Free Agent/Trade Acquisition 

Italics = Rookie 

 

Offense

QB: Anthony Richardson, Sam Ehlinger, Chase Daniel 

RB: Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Deon Jackson 

WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Ashton Dulin

WR: Alec Pierce, Mike Strachan 

Slot: Parris Campbell, Jonathan Mingo

TE: Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Brenton Strange   

LT: Bernhard Raimann, Josh Wells  

LG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries 

C: Ethan Pocic, Wesley French 

RG: Steve Avila, Danny Pinter 

RT: Braden Smith, Asim Richards 

 

Defense

DE: Frank Clark, Dayo Odeyingbo, Kameron Cline 

DT: DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, Eric Johnson 

DT: Grover Stewart, Brodric Martin, Chris Williams

DE: Kwity Paye, Zach Harrison, Rashod Berry 

OLB: Darius Leonard, Dorian Williams, Cameron McGrone 

MLB: Zaire Franklin, JoJo Domann 

OLB: E.J. Speed, Grant Stuard 

CB: Isaiah Rodgers Sr, Amani Oruwariye, Kevin Tolliver 

CB: Stephon Gilmore, Dallis Flowers, Darrell Baker Jr 

Nickel CB: Byron Murphy Jr, Jakorian Bennett  

FS: Julian Blackmon, Rodney Thomas 

SS: Rodney McLeod, Nick Cross, Trevor Denbow   

 

Special teams

K: Chase McLaughlin 

P: Rigoberto Sanchez

LS: Luke Rhodes

Love this! My only complain is I wish you added another WR in FA.

[MikeCurtis]

Thanks for posting

 

I like the picks,  I do think that a intermediate vet at QB is needed, as Richardson wasn't ready for College ball last year 

 

There are a long list of QBs that were shoved into the starting line up WAY too early and it impacted there careers, 

Zach Wilson MAY be great someday...... but his immaturity and lack of readiness killed him

 

IF we get Richardson, we REALLY need a Briskett "type" of player to begin the season while Richardson learns the ropes