Late Riser vs. Steady Faller

[Mr. Blue]

In a draft full of players who will be tossed around in the rankings, there are those late risers quickly flying up the boards because of some sudden interest or a great combine day, but there are also players that are falling due to a poor combine/pro day or character concerns (there are more reasons for both types of players). What is the best strategy for choosing between a late riser and a steady faller? Say Arthur Brown vs. Damontre Moore? Jamie Collins vs. Desmond Trufant? What are your thoughts on this situation?

[ALuck>RG3]

I would take the steady faller.

[unvrsty07]

Hate to get technical... but what is your methodology? I will take consistency over rising or falling any day.

[BrentMc11]

I am going on what Grigson's theory is.....You watch video, video and more video....did I say more video yet 

 

The kids play there hearts out to get to the point they may/will be drafted into the National Football League......Grigson, other GMs, and armchairs like us.....watch more video!  

 

Combine comes, and Andre Smith (just an example) comes in and looks like a billboard for Dunkin Donuts/Somores....

 

You go by the film...you stick by your guns...your analysis, and yes your experience....As Grigson said it is much easier to pick that guy that is fallen based on all that you have watched...than to take someone who was non-existent on video...and suddenly looks like a superstar...        This is my   on scouting 101...and I am a firm believer in this philosophy.

[Valpo2004]

Between the two, I think typically the steady faller is your best bet.  But it depends on what they are rising or falling for.

 

I think a lot of people tend to suddenly rise for 1 of 2 reasons.  Either A they had a huge bowl game performance (which was far above their average.)  or B. They had a far better then expected combine. 

 

Both of those you need to be wary of.  For example, Blaine Gabbert rose out of no where, IMO because of a good statistical performance in his last bowl game.  But I watched that game because he was playing Iowa and I'm an Iowa fan.  And really his stats looked way better then he looked if you where actually watching the game.

 

And if you watched the actual game you would have seen him throw a game losing interception returned for a touchdown that was 100% his fault. . . No quarterback should EVER throw that pass. . . EVER.

[HtownColt]

I'll take the stellar faller, because he was initially up there from his game tapes and started to fall do to shorts and shirt workouts(not taking account if a player is falling for off the field stuff)

And the late riser is moving up based on his shorts and shirt workout and not his game tape more often than not

[Tark The Shark]

Steady Faller.

 

Usually those are people that have outside stuff involved rather than football. 

 

Things come out, maybe a character issue, an injury. I think these guys are perfect for late round picks.

[Valpo2004]

With character issues it's mostly a question of what the issue is and if it's going to be a problem again.  

 

You don't want to draft yourself the next Titus Young.  

 

However you look at Ryan Mallet who had first round talent but fell to the 3rd round because of reported Character issues.

 

Now granted no one has seen Ryan Mallet play in an actual real NFL game. . . but he hasn't caused any problems since he got into the NFL either.