Post Combine Off-Season Mock

[Caleb3502]

For contracts and to keep track of cap space, I used Overthecap. For lists of free agents, I used Spotrac. I used PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator to simulate the draft. Normally, I use Draft Network’s mock draft simulator but that is currently under construction, per their website, However, I still used the Draft Network’s prospect information tabs to research more about the draft prospects. 

 

2023 Cap Space: $12,230,976 | 2024 Cap Space: $123,904,874

 

Player-Related Trades

 

Bears Receive: Pick #4, Pick #35, 2024 2nd Round Pick, CB Kenny Moore II

Colts Receive: Pick #1

 

Cardinals Receive: C Ryan Kelly

Colts Receive: Pick #104 

 

Cowboys Receive: CB Stephon Gilmore 

Colts Receive: Pick #90

 

2023 Cap Space after Trades: $40,442,851 | 2024 Cap Space after Trades: $136,279,874

 

Notes

- Kenny Moore is in the last year of his deal and was not too pleased last off-season when he did not get a new one. With his lack of true fit in Bradley’s defense, I anticipate him being a part of the Chicago trade so that he can reunite with Eberflus. 

- With the continued regression last year and his cap hit, I think it makes sense to move on from Ryan Kelly. Rodney Hudson is reportedly on the verge of retirement, so the Cardinals are in need of a new center. 

- Gilmore will be turning 33 during the first month of the season, and it is very unlikely he would be on the team beyond this year. It makes sense to trade him while his value is still high, and a contending team like Dallas would most likely want a proven CB opposite Trevon Diggs. 

 

Releases

 

QB Matt Ryan - Saves $17,205,882

 

QB Nick Foles - Saves $2,100,000

 

2023 Cap Space after Releases: $59,748,733 | 2024 Cap Space after Releases: $136,279,874

 

Notes 

- The releases are pretty obvious, as neither QB really serves a purpose for this team moving forward. If Ryan retires, the Colts will save more cap space, but I’ll go forward with the assumption they’ll have to release him.  

  

Extensions

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr - 3 Years/$62M (Includes $40M Guaranteed and $20M in Signing Bonus) 2023 Cap Hit - $8,948,971 | 2024 Cap Hit: $21,055,000 | 2025 Cap Hit: $18,500,000 | 2026 Cap Hit: $17,455,000 | $40M Guaranteed = 2022 Salary + 2023 Salary + Signing Bonus 

 

RB Jonathan Taylor - 4 Years/$64M (Includes $36M Guaranteed and $22M in Signing Bonus) - 2023 2023 Cap Hit - $9,517,482 | 2024 Cap Hit: $13,282,518 | 2025 Cap Hit: $15,850,000 | 2026 Cap Hit: $15,650,000 | 2027 Cap Hit: $14,817,482 | $36M Guaranteed = 2022 Salary + 2023 Salary + Signing Bonus 

 

2023 Cap Space after Extensions: $50,348,733 | 2024 Cap Space after Extensions: $101,942,356  

 

Notes 

- I looked at the D.J. Moore, Mike Williams, and Chris Godwin extensions as a model for the Pittman extension. $20M/year for a WR is a lot, but that’s what the market for WRs has become. There’s debate on whether or not Pittman is a true #1, but he’s been the clear #1 option for the Colts' passing game the past couple of years, and I expect his production will be better with improved QB play. 

- In regards to Taylor, I generally do not subscribe to the idea of giving a RB a second contract. However, despite a down year, I believe Taylor is worth the commitment. He’s the engine that makes this Colts offense go, and his special playmaking ability will be needed as the Colts offense grows with a new, young QB this year. With a QB on a rookie contract for the next 5 seasons, I think it is worth locking up your two best offensive weapons for the foreseeable future. I looked at Christian McCaffery's and Nick Chubb's extensions as a model for Taylor's extension.    

 

Restructures 

 

T Braden Smith - Saves $9,946,667 in 2023 | Adds $4,973,333 in 2024 & 2025 

 

2023 Cap Space after Restructure: $60,295,400 | 2024 Cap Space after Restructure: $96,969,023  

 

Re-sign

 

Unrestricted Free Agents

DE Ben Banogu

CB Tony Brown 

WR Parris Campbell - 2 Years/$9M | 2023 Cap Hit: $4,750,000 | 2024 Cap Hit: $4,250,000

DT Byron Cowart

WR Ashton Dulin - 1 Year/$2.75M

CB Brandon Facyson 

P Matt Haack 

T Dennis Kelly 

DE Tyquan Lewis 

K Chase McLaughlin - 2 Years/$8M | $4M Cap Hit in 2023 & 2024 

S Rodney McLeod 

DE Yannick Ngakoue - 2 Years/$28M ($12M Guaranteed) | 2023 Cap Hit: $13,500,000 | 2024 Cap Hit: $14,500,000

MLB Bobby Okereke  

T Matt Pryor 

OLB E.J. Speed - 2 Years/$5.5M | $2.75M Cap Hit in 2023 & 2024

S Armani Watts 

 

Restricted Free Agents 

DE Khalid Kareem 

 

Exclusive Rights Free Agents 

T Carter O’Connell

FB Jake Funk 

 

2023 Cap Space Remaining: $36,895,400 | 2024 Cap Space: $71,469,020

 

Notes

- Spotrac projects Parris Campbell to get $2.5M this offseason, but I think a two-year deal at $4.5/year is fair. We finally got a healthy season with him and was pretty decent all things considered. Probably not a long-term option but I like him as a short-term slot. 

- I’d love to have McLeod back, but I feel he’ll have better offers elsewhere with teams that are closer to competing. If he wants to come back, they could probably get him on a 1-year deal in the $3M to $5M range, which I would be all far if he’s interested.   

- I’d really like to have Okereke back, but I’m very pessimistic about him getting Spotrac’s projected value of $2.3M/year. Jordan Schultz reported today that Okereke can get close to $12M to $14M per year. With the defense being primarily in 2 LB sets, it makes sense to move forward with Franklin & Leonard as the LBs. I brought back E.J. Speed for the few times the Colts are in their base 4-3 defense. 

- I initially was not going to bring back Ngakoue, but there were not too many EDGE players on the open market that I felt would be a significant upgrade over him. Arden Key is a player that would make sense, but I opted to stay with the in-house free agent. I felt he played better at the back end of the year, but I wouldn’t strongly argue with those that say he’s not worth it as I’m not 100% sold on him either.  

 

Free Agents

 

G Isaac Seumalo - 2 Years/$25M ($12M Guaranteed | $10M Signing Bonus | 1 Voidable Year | 2023 Cap Hit - $10,833,000 | 2024 Cap Hit: $9,833,333)

 

Right guard is one of the biggest holes on the roster. With a revolving door of linemen from a largely underwhelming season by the group, there needs more stability. I do not feel comfortable rolling into 2023 with either Fries or Pinter, and whoever they might take in the draft would probably not be ready to start right away. With the obvious connection to Steichen, Seamulo comes in and shores up a spot on the line, specifically in the pass-blocking department. The Colts were tied for second in sacks allowed this season (60). For the advanced metric individuals, Seumalo had a pass block win rate of 93.6%, while the Colts collectively had the league's lowest pass block win rate at 48.5%.          

 

CB Byron Murphy - 3 Years/$25.5M ($9M Guaranteed | $6 Signing Bonus | 2023 Cap Hit: $9.5M | 2024 Cap Hit: $7.5M)  

 

Murphy, still only 25 years only, provides a young and versatile addition to the already youthful secondary. He only played 9 games last year due to a back injury but has been relatively healthy and consistent throughout his career. Murphy has lined up on the boundary and nickel throughout his time in Arizona. While he played in a heavy man coverage scheme under Vance Joseph, he is better suited to play zone coverage. From 2020 to 2022, his PFF zone coverage grades have been consistently better than his man coverage grades. I have him penciled him at Nickel CB right now, but I could see him playing more on the boundary depending on how the draft goes. Maybe they could move Rodgers inside to nickel and play Murphy on the boundary. I believe Rodgers was initially thought of as a nickel CB coming out of the draft, but he’s played mainly on the outside in the NFL so far. 

 

DT Solomon Thomas - 1 Year/$3M 

Thomas has never lived up to his draft position (#3 overall in 2017 with 10 career sacks), but he played well as a rotational 3-tech DT in Las Vegas under Gus Bradley. 2021 was Thomas’ best season as a professional, with 3.5 sacks and 34 tackles. The Colts are very thin along the D-line, and Thomas provides good depth with the loss of Tyquan Lewis.   

 

C Tyler Larsen - 1 Year/$2.75M 

He’s probably more of a backup at this point in his career, but he serves as a cheap, veteran stopgap at center following the hypothetical Ryan Kelly trade. He was decent as both a run and pass blocker last year for Washington.  

 

S Kareem Jackson - 1 Year/$2.5M 

Jackson is this year’s Rodney McLeod. Now, you might ask why can’t Rodney McLeod still be this year’s Rodney McLeod, but I feel he’ll have better opportunities elsewhere for contending teams after his solid season. If McLeod wants to come back, they should 100% re-sign him. Jackson serves as a veteran presence in a very young secondary.  

 

T Josh Wells - 1 Year/$2M 

Backup swing tackle to add some veteran insurance along the line. Wells has never been a consistent starter in his career, but he’s been a decent spot starter that has filled in at both left and right tackle. 

 

QB Chase Daniel - 1 Year/$2M 

Veteran backup QB that might not even dress on gamedays, but I feel it’s important to have a long-tenured QB to help assimilate a young QB into the NFL. 

 

CB Amani Oruwariye - 1 Year/$1.25M 

In 2021, Oruwaritye looked like a breakout star for the Lions and was on his way to a lucrative extension. Then 2022 happened; benched and was the worst CB in the NFL according to PFF. However, he’s still a young CB with good athletic traits, so I think he’s worth giving a try considering the weak CB depth on the roster after the hypothetical Moore and Gilmore trades. 

 

2023 Cap Space Remaining: $10,195,912 | 2024 Cap Space: $54,135,690

 

Colts Key Free Agents in 2024

DT Grover Stewart 

CB Isaiah Rodgers 

S Julian Blackmon 

P Rigoberto Sanchez

LS Luke Rhodes  

C Danny Pinter 

RB Zack Moss 

  

NFL Draft

 

* = acquired through proposed trades 

 

*Round 1 Pick 1: QB C.J. Stroud - Ohio State   

 

Moving up to #1 for Stroud might be a controversial move, but if Stroud is the guy they want, they need to make the move to ensure they get their QB. I’m not too interested in Bryce Young considering he’s essentially the same size as Kyler Murray and would be one of the smallest QBs ever drafted in the first round. Anthony Richardson has been getting a ton of media attention and hype for his ridiculous RAS score, but the volatility between what he can become and what he may end up being is too wide of a margin for me. I know Levis possesses the physical tools, but I’m not sold on his ability to develop as a starting QB in the NFL.  I could be ignorant on Levis, but to me, it seems like Josh Allen’s ascension has led people to believe that someone like Levis can easily become just as elite. 

 

Based on the Combine and what we have seen prior, I feel the most comfortable with Stroud as a QB prospect. I thought he looked the best in the passing drills in regard to precision and touch on his passes. He doesn’t have the arm that Will Levis possesses, but I think his arm is big enough to execute the downfield throws that will be opened up in Steichen’s vertical passing system. 

 

There are, of course, questions regarding his athletic ability, particularly with his lack of rushing attempts at Ohio State, he only ran 47 times during the 2022 season. I’m not overly concerned with the last of rushing, as he was able to scramble effectively in the Georgia game when he needed to. While Steichen is most recently connected to a running QB in Jalen Hurts, he also worked with Justin Herbert, who himself only had 50 rushing attempts in his final season at Oregon.  

 

TRADE 

Eagles Receive: Pick #79, Pick #106

Colts Receive: Pick #62

 

*Round 2 Pick 62: CB Julius Brents -  Kansas State  

 

The Colts trade up to get the Indianapolis native as their Gilmore replacement. Brents is the prototypical CB that Ballard gravitates towards: 6’3” with an arm length of 34”. Brents fits Bradley’s Cover 3 defense with his rare blend of size and length. His stock has risen significantly after the Combine, and I don’t feel he’ll still be there by the time the Colts pick in the 3rd round. 

 

TRADE 

Texans Receive: Pick #90 via DAL 

Colts Receive: Pick #104, Pick #138, 2024 5th 

 

*Round 4 Pick 104: WR Jonathan Mingo - Ole Miss 

 

Like Brents, Mingo checks all the boxes for the prototypical WR that Ballard covets. At 6’2” and 220 lb, Mingo is a strong slot WR that possesses great athletic ability, exemplified by his RAS score of 9.93. While I brought Campbell back in this mock, I feel that Mingo can be the long-term answer. 

 

*Round 4 Pick 105: C Olusegun Oluwatimi - Michigan 

 

The Colts use the pick acquired in the Ryan Kelly trade to grab his potential replacement. Oluwatimi has a lot of experience as a 4-year starter at Michigan and has a high IQ for the position after experiencing numerous different defensive fronts and concepts. He has the knowledge and experience to develop into a starting center.   

 

*Round 5 Pick 138: EDGE Ochaun Mathis - Nebraska 

 

It comes as no surprise that the Colts need to continue to add depth along their D-line, particularly at DE. Slightly undersized at 250 lb but has the speed and quickness to develop nicely as a rotational pass rusher behind Kwity Paye. 

 

Round 5 Pick 140: G Braeden Daniels - Utah 

 

Played primarily the tackle spots at Utah but will probably kick inside to guard at the NFL level. Daniels plays with control and has a good understanding of blocking techniques, particularly in the run game. Daniels fits well in a zone-run scheme and has the chance to develop into a starting guard down the road.  

 

Round 5 Pick 164: LB Dorian Williams - Tulane 

 

Williams was a consistent presence for Tulane on defense and special teams. He has a solid frame with good length but struggles to take on contact at times. He played a lot at MIKE at Tulane, but profiles more as a WILL in the NFL. He has the physical tools to be a starter but needs to play faster and deconstruct blocks sooner. He profiles as a decent reserve WILL that will be an impactful special teamer. 

 

Round 7 Pick 223: DT Robert Cooper - Florida State 

 

This may be the final season for Grover Stewart. Stewart will turn 30 during the season and is in the final year of his contract. Regardless of Stewart’s future status, as a common reoccurrence throughout the mock, the Colts need more depth on the D-line. Cooper, despite being a large man at 335 lb, has experience as a 1-tech in a 4-3 front and can be an effective rotational run defender. 

 

Round 7 Pick 238: CB Cedric Dort Jr - Wisconsin 

 

Dort Jr. is a strong tackler that works well in Cover 3 schemes. Dort Jr. played the boundary at Kentucky before switching inside to nickel when he transferred to Wisconsin. Dort Jr. serves as a backup nickel CB that adds some value on special teams.  

 

Roster

 

Bold = Free Agent

Italics = Rookie 

 

Offense

QB: C.J. Stroud, Sam Ehlinger, Chase Daniel 

RB: Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Deon Jackson 

WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Ashton Dulin, Malik Turner, Ethan Fernea  

WR: Alec Pierce, Mike Strachan, Kristian Wilkerson, Vyncint Smith   

Slot: Parris Campbell, Jonathan Mingo

TE: Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Nikola Kalinic, Jalen Wydermyer   

LT: Bernhard Raimann, Josh Wells  

LG: Quenton Nelson, Braeden Daniels 

C: Tyler Larsen, Olusegun Oluwatimi, Wesley French, Dakota Shepley  

RG: Isaac Seumalo, Danny Pinter, Arlington Hambright  

RT: Braden Smith, Will Fries, Jordan Murray  

 

Defense

DE: Yannick Ngakoue, Dayo Odeyingbo, Kameron Cline 

DT: DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, Eric Johnson,  

DT: Grover Stewart, Robert Cooper, Chris Williams, McTelvin Agim 

DE: Kwity Paye, Ochaun Mathis, Rashod Berry 

OLB: Darius Leonard, Dorian Williams, Cameron McGrone 

MLB: Zaire Franklin, JoJo Domann, Forrest Rhyne  

OLB: E.J. Speed, Grant Stuard, Segun Olubi  

CB: Isaiah Rodgers Sr, Amani Oruwariye, Kevin Tolliver, David Vereen  

CB: Julius Brents, Dallis Flowers, Darrell Baker Jr 

Nickel CB: Byron Murphy Jr., Cedric Dort Jr. 

FS: Julian Blackmon, Rodney Thomas, Marcel Dabo, Henry Black

SS: Nick Cross, Kareem Jackson, Trevor Denbow   

 

Special teams

K: Chase McLaughlin, Lucas Havrisik  

P: Rigoberto Sanchez

LS: Luke Rhodes

[Jackie Daytona]

Wow A+ for effort.   I would actually be ok with most all of this.  

 

I think that might be a bit cheap for moving to 1..... I don't think if the primary additional pick is just a 2nd and no later add ons, that they will delay it until '24.....but not bad

 

only thing that confused me was Julius Brents....... is a blend of size and length really that rare?  Those two tend to go togther,,,,,,  is he fast?  If you meant size or length and speed.....that would make him a rare pkg.

[stitches]

Great effort. Love it. 

 

Some notes from me: 

 

- CB feels light and very inexperienced. No idea if Gilmore has asked Ballard to get traded... but I'd love to have him back if he wants to stay. 

- I kind of feel like MAC is redundant at this point... he has failed to take the leap and I feel like I'm done with him. 

- Love your draft. Would love it if we can trade up to 1 without having to give our 1st in 2024. 

- I want more dynamic weapons offensively, but this is not a great WR FA class so I can't fault you for not exploring options there... 

[coltsfan40]

Outstanding job ! Ty for all you put into this! With few exceptions just an awesome effort!

[John Hammonds]

That was a lot of work!  A+ for effort!

[Caleb3502]

8 hours ago, Jackie Daytona said:

Wow A+ for effort.   I would actually be ok with most all of this.  

 

I think that might be a bit cheap for moving to 1..... I don't think if the primary additional pick is just a 2nd and no later add ons, that they will delay it until '24.....but not bad

 

only thing that confused me was Julius Brents....... is a blend of size and length really that rare?  Those two tend to go togther,,,,,,  is he fast?  If you meant size or length and speed.....that would make him a rare pkg.

For the Bears trade, I tried following what a lot of the hypothetical trades have looked like for that. I will admit that the Bears have all the leverage here and that there is a very high possibility that they demand a future 1st and there will probably be a team that obliges if the Colts do not. 

 

For Brents, I saw the phrase "rare blend of size and length" in a Lance Zerlein write-up on Brents. It's a weird way of saying it because you're right in that size and length to go together, but I think it was meant to emphasize just how tall and long he is for a CB. His wing span was 82 5/8", which is actually the longest wingspan ever measured for a CB at the combine, which is something I should have included in my write-up.