ESPN FPI and Projections (Colts are 13th)

[EastStreet]

Colts FPI 
Overall - 13th
O - 16th
D - 8th Tie
STs - 19th (4 way Tie)
SoS - 28th

 

Projections
W/L - 9.1-7.8 (13th)
Playoff % - 58.6% (11th)
Win Div - 44.4% (7th, but behind TN)
Make Div - 33.2% (11th, behind TN)
Make Conf - 14.4% (10th, ahead of TN)
Make SB - 5.8% (12th, behind TN)

 

Thoughts 
-Overall I think it's fair
-Defense is too high IMO
-STs is way too low
-SoS is about as expected. We have a tough start, but can coast after that
-Projections are fair. Close to TN, and AFC fav for WC
 

[landrus13]

I agree with most of those rankings. STs is way too low. Defense might be a little high, I'd say around 10th. I like those playoff chances though. I'd say those are about right. Offense might be a little low. If Wentz gets healthy and stays that way, this could be a top 10 offense.

[AKB]

Defense is not too high.

 

We will have a top 5 ST.

 

Offense will be top 15. 

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

Defense is not too high.

 

We will have a top 5 ST.

 

Offense will be top 15. 

We were top 2-3 (D) the first 3rd or half of the year (when we played bad teams), then dropped like a rock as our schedule got harder. We ended up outside the top 10, so we had to be bottom half of the league late for us to drop like that.

 

I hope it's not to high, but I've got to be realistic.

[AKB]

4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

We were top 2-3 (D) the first 3rd or half of the year (when we played bad teams), then dropped like a rock as our schedule got harder. We ended up outside the top 10, so we had to be bottom half of the league late for us to drop like that.

 

I hope it's not to high, but I've got to be realistic.

I think in large, the drop in production was directly related to our lack in pass rush. Also, we had a lot of game killing penalties that extended drives. We especially struggled against QBs that could move the pocket. Our added speed with Kwity, Speed, Okereke, Shawn D. & our secondary taking a step (super young backend). I expect to see a huge increase in turnovers, and ball release speed from the opposing QB. 

 

All of these things are beneficial to a cover 2, shell defense. 

[EastStreet]

Just now, AustinnKaine said:

I think in large, the drop in production was directly related to our lack in pass rush. Also, we had a lot of game killing penalties that extended drives. We especially struggled against QBs that could move the pocket. Our added speed with Kwity, Speed, Okereke, Shawn D. & our secondary taking a step (super young backend). I expect to see a huge increase in turnovers, and ball release speed from the opposing QB. 

 

All of these things are beneficial to a cover 2, shell defense. 

Our pressure % average, and our hurry % was top 10..... Sack % top 10ish too.

That's not bad at all given we blitzed at a near league low.

 

So... can't really agree with you.

 

Our DBs and LBs all struggled vs the pass, especially when we played a decent QB... Expecting improvement is fine, but it's purely projection. 

[AKB]

4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Our pressure % average, and our hurry % was top 10..... Sack % top 10ish too.

That's not bad at all given we blitzed at a near league low.

 

So... can't really agree with you.

 

Our DBs and LBs all struggled vs the pass, especially when we played a decent QB... Expecting improvement is fine, but it's purely projection. 

No, we were 13th in sacks per game. 

 

Also, a lot of those pressures resulted in a QB breaking contain and making a short pass, or an extended play. 

 

Another compounding factor was the reality that a lot of the pressures applied to Rivers resulted in a dead play. Adding mobility to our QB room will also help our defense tremendously. 

 

Long drives by QBs extending plays and gassing our defense was major last year. We have improved depth, improved speed, and a year of experience. 

 

Also - numbers definitely lie. There are a lot of compounding variables to think about, and one individual number with lack of relative information is questionable at best in most conversations. 

[EastStreet]

19 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

No, we were 13th in sacks per game. 

I just confirmed... we were 11th in sack %... I said top 10ish, so 11th is pretty much "ish"

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/sack-pct

Quote

 

Also, a lot of those pressures resulted in a QB breaking contain and making a short pass, or an extended play. 

 

Another compounding factor was the reality that a lot of the pressures applied to Rivers resulted in a dead play. Adding mobility to our QB room will also help our defense tremendously. 

 

Long drives by QBs extending plays and gassing our defense was major last year. We have improved depth, improved speed, and a year of experience. 

 

Also - numbers definitely lie. There are a lot of compounding variables to think about, and one individual number with lack of relative information is questionable at best in most conversations. 

Blaming Rivers for anything on our D is laughable....  Look at our playoff loss. He was great, our D stunk. You'd have to ignore logic, stats, and a whole lot of things to say any different.

 

And it wasn't just because we played a good QB (Allen). Allen had 300+ yards, 85+ QBR, and 120+ QBR..... All better than his season averages. That just doesn't happen to a top 10 D...

 

And we sacked him twice, which is more than his average sacks/game... So not our DL either.... Houston and Autry actually had pretty decent stats. 

 

Allen just ate our secondary and LBs up... badly.... Oke, Leonard, Blackmon, and Moore all gave up 100% completion rates... lol. It was bad, with a capital B. 

 

Half of our front 6 is brand new. Projecting the newbs to be better is fine, but again, it's purely projection.

[CurBeatElite]

5 hours ago, AustinnKaine said:

I think in large, the drop in production was directly related to our lack in pass rush. Also, we had a lot of game killing penalties that extended drives. We especially struggled against QBs that could move the pocket. Our added speed with Kwity, Speed, Okereke, Shawn D. & our secondary taking a step (super young backend). I expect to see a huge increase in turnovers, and ball release speed from the opposing QB. 

 

All of these things are beneficial to a cover 2, shell defense. 

 

Speed and Okereke are going into year 3.  Okereke struggled some last year (personally, for the most part, I thought he regressed a bit from his rookie year, though he was used in a bit of a different role so I want to give him benefit of the doubt) -- I don't see him as 'added speed' from last year as he played 2/3 of the snaps (he and Walker were nearly equal with Walker at 67.5% and Oke at 66.4% - I get it, we may be faster on 1st down with Oke in there instead of Walker, but I still don't see him as 'added speed' and frankly he struggled against the run last year).  I hope to see Speed get some opportunity, and remain optimistic on him but he has barely seen the field on D over 2 years in the league and is largely an unknown.  I will also remain optimistic on Kwity (assuming he stays healthy), but he's expected to come in and replace a borderline HOFer in Justin Houston so I also don't want to get my hopes up there.  In the secondary, I expect Rhodes/Carrie/Moore will remain steady and hope to see Rock and Blackmon improve (I also hope to see Tell play well, though ESPN has him very low on the depth chart if that means anything)... that said I like Willis but think we've pretty much seen his ceiling and I don't want to hang my hat on a 5th round rookie safety (Shawn D., though he seems to be promising, he also seems to be battling injury right now and I haven't heard much about him at all this camp), or the other Sean D who is two years removed from missing 15 games and who only had 12 tackles last season.

 

If Lewis and Banogu play up to the hype they've been getting in preseason, that will be a good thing.  If Turay stays healthy and emerges as a legit passrusher, that will be a good thing.  If Rochell can be like Autry for us (I think he can), that will be a good thing.  If Paye's ankle truly isn't serious and he can play at a level near Houston (very high expectations for a rookie who is comin g in pretty raw), and he lives up to his hype, that will be a good thing.  If Buckner and Stewart both stay healthy and play at or above the level they played last year, that will be a great thing.   If all of these things happen, we'll probably have a pretty good pass rush and that will be helpful to our backend.

 

That is a whole lot of 'ifs', and while I remain optimistic, we also have to hope Leonard stays healthy because we are unproven at LB behind him.  My gut tells me our D will be improved, though, until I really don't think we'll know what we have until around week 5 or maybe even later.

 

5 hours ago, EastStreet said:

We were top 2-3 (D) the first 3rd or half of the year (when we played bad teams), then dropped like a rock as our schedule got harder. We ended up outside the top 10, so we had to be bottom half of the league late for us to drop like that.

 

I hope it's not to high, but I've got to be realistic.

 

What last year showed me was that we lack depth at critical positions on D.  This is understandable as we were (and still are) very young on D and we have quite a bit invested in our O.  I don't have time to get too in depth here, but let's just look at points allowed.  I know this is not 100% accurate to judge the D on because some points allowed were a direct result of our offense turning the ball over (e.g., week 1 against Jax two Rivers interceptions gave them two possessions starting inside our 30 which resulted in 10 points)... anyway, week 1 we gave up 27 (hypothetically 17 without those 10 points due to bad turnovers), week 2, 3, 4 we gave up 11 points, 7 points, 11 points (albeit to MIN, NYJ, CHI so not very good offensive teams)... then Leonard gets hurt and misses week 5 and 6 where we gave up 32 points to CLE (who had a good O) and 27 to CIN (not a bad O, but still a 4 win team).  Just from week 4 to week 6 our D rankings had to drop significantly, not saying it is all because Leonard was out, but our D was noticeably different without him.  Then, let's look at our two games vs. TEN -- the first time we played them we won 34-17 and held Derrick Henry to 103 yards rushing and 0 TDs... two weeks later with Buckner out (I believe due to covid protocol) we got thrashed 45-26 and allowed Henry to rush for 6.6 ypc for 178 yards and 3 TDs -- it was very obvious without the other true stud on our D (i.e., I consider Leonard and Buckner the only true studs on our D last year) that we had a significant weakness.

 

Don't get me wrong, I get that Buckner and Leonard are both all-pro caliber players and very few teams in the league would be able to play without losing an all-pro at the same level they can with them... but when either of those guys were hurt last year, it was so obvious how much they were missed and how much inadequacies they could mask when they were out there.  

 

Also, we have to really emphasize the difference in our strength of schedule early vs. late last year.  Our three best D games came week 2, 3, and 4 (at least in terms of points allowed) vs. a 7-9 MIN team (11th in scoring offense, we held them to 11), a 2-14 NYJ team (32nd in scoring offense, we held the worst team in the league to 7), and an 8-8 Bears team (22nd in scoring offense, we held them to 11).  Then in week 17 we held JAX to 14 (they were 30th in scoring offense).  Aside from those games we held TEN to 17 in our win against them when we more or less kept Henry in check, and every other game we allowed 20+ (we averaged 22.6 pts/game allowed for 10th best scoring D in league).  Given that 2 of our 3 best games (scoring wise anyway) on D came in weeks 3 and 4 against the worst and 22nd worst O's in the league, it isn't really a shock that our ranking fell as the year went on.  On the flipside, had we played GB (1st scoring O in league), BAL (9th scoring O), and TEN (4th scoring O in league, especially if we played them without Buckner) in weeks 2, 3, 4 (instead of weeks 9, 11, 12) and played NYJ, CHI, MIN the same in weeks 9, 11, 12... we would have gone from a very bad D (points allowed) to a top 10 D (points allowed) after the first 1/4 of the season.  

[AKB]

6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I just confirmed... we were 11th in sack %... I said top 10ish, so 11th is pretty much "ish"

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/sack-pct

Blaming Rivers for anything on our D is laughable....  Look at our playoff loss. He was great, our D stunk. You'd have to ignore logic, stats, and a whole lot of things to say any different.

 

And it wasn't just because we played a good QB (Allen). Allen had 300+ yards, 85+ QBR, and 120+ QBR..... All better than his season averages. That just doesn't happen to a top 10 D...

 

And we sacked him twice, which is more than his average sacks/game... So not our DL either.... Houston and Autry actually had pretty decent stats. 

 

Allen just ate our secondary and LBs up... badly.... Oke, Leonard, Blackmon, and Moore all gave up 100% completion rates... lol. It was bad, with a capital B. 

 

Half of our front 6 is brand new. Projecting the newbs to be better is fine, but again, it's purely projection.

Okay, so I am not blaming Rivers for anything that happened on defense. Except for turnovers that would be his fault. 

 

What I am saying is this - teams with mobile QBs, tend to stay on the field longer. Of course this is not always the case, but I remember A LOT, of times where a drive was ended because of Rivers not being able to move. AT ALL. It's not like he was reasonably mobile. No, if there was pressure, the play was over. Anyone who watched the colts last year could see that. Sirianni mentioned it today when he was asked about the mobility of Jalen. He referenced Rivers in particular. 

 

Anyhow, I was not talking bad about anyone. And the website that I looked on had us 13th, with 2.5 sacks per game. Not sure where the variance is between the sites. My point wasn't that our defense was bad, the point was that they will be better. - And I stated why. 

 

Not really sure what point you're trying to make though? 

 

I see that you mention our secondary. Pass rush directly influences the secondary play doesn't it? What about the fact they we had a rookie FS? A 2nd year SS? A young CB in RYS? First year in system for Rhodes? And arguably the best slot corner in the league. Rhodes still had one of his best seasons. 

 

So yeah, the Bills game was bad but I'm not sure why you are singling that game out. Quite a few of those passes completed that game by the bills were exceptional catches. We also had a lot of bad penalties, and a lot of Allen running to the boundary and completing a pass? Really confused what you're trying to prove here.. 

[EastStreet]

9 minutes ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Speed and Okereke are going into year 3.  Okereke struggled some last year (personally, for the most part, I thought he regressed a bit from his rookie year, though he was used in a bit of a different role so I want to give him benefit of the doubt) -- I don't see him as 'added speed' from last year as he played 2/3 of the snaps (he and Walker were nearly equal with Walker at 67.5% and Oke at 66.4% - I get it, we may be faster on 1st down with Oke in there instead of Walker, but I still don't see him as 'added speed' and frankly he struggled against the run last year).  I hope to see Speed get some opportunity, and remain optimistic on him but he has barely seen the field on D over 2 years in the league and is largely an unknown.  I will also remain optimistic on Kwity (assuming he stays healthy), but he's expected to come in and replace a borderline HOFer in Justin Houston so I also don't want to get my hopes up there.  In the secondary, I expect Rhodes/Carrie/Moore will remain steady and hope to see Rock and Blackmon improve (I also hope to see Tell play well, though ESPN has him very low on the depth chart if that means anything)... that said I like Willis but think we've pretty much seen his ceiling and I don't want to hang my hat on a 5th round rookie safety (Shawn D., though he seems to be promising, he also seems to be battling injury right now and I haven't heard much about him at all this camp), or the other Sean D who is two years removed from missing 15 games and who only had 12 tackles last season.

 

If Lewis and Banogu play up to the hype they've been getting in preseason, that will be a good thing.  If Turay stays healthy and emerges as a legit passrusher, that will be a good thing.  If Rochell can be like Autry for us (I think he can), that will be a good thing.  If Paye's ankle truly isn't serious and he can play at a level near Houston (very high expectations for a rookie who is comin g in pretty raw), and he lives up to his hype, that will be a good thing.  If Buckner and Stewart both stay healthy and play at or above the level they played last year, that will be a great thing.   If all of these things happen, we'll probably have a pretty good pass rush and that will be helpful to our backend.

 

That is a whole lot of 'ifs', and while I remain optimistic, we also have to hope Leonard stays healthy because we are unproven at LB behind him.  My gut tells me our D will be improved, though, until I really don't think we'll know what we have until around week 5 or maybe even later.

 

 

What last year showed me was that we lack depth at critical positions on D.  This is understandable as we were (and still are) very young on D and we have quite a bit invested in our O.  I don't have time to get too in depth here, but let's just look at points allowed.  I know this is not 100% accurate to judge the D on because some points allowed were a direct result of our offense turning the ball over (e.g., week 1 against Jax two Rivers interceptions gave them two possessions starting inside our 30 which resulted in 10 points)... anyway, week 1 we gave up 27 (hypothetically 17 without those 10 points due to bad turnovers), week 2, 3, 4 we gave up 11 points, 7 points, 11 points (albeit to MIN, NYJ, CHI so not very good offensive teams)... then Leonard gets hurt and misses week 5 and 6 where we gave up 32 points to CLE (who had a good O) and 27 to CIN (not a bad O, but still a 4 win team).  Just from week 4 to week 6 our D rankings had to drop significantly, not saying it is all because Leonard was out, but our D was noticeably different without him.  Then, let's look at our two games vs. TEN -- the first time we played them we won 34-17 and held Derrick Henry to 103 yards rushing and 0 TDs... two weeks later with Buckner out (I believe due to covid protocol) we got thrashed 45-26 and allowed Henry to rush for 6.6 ypc for 178 yards and 3 TDs -- it was very obvious without the other true stud on our D (i.e., I consider Leonard and Buckner the only true studs on our D last year) that we had a significant weakness.

 

Don't get me wrong, I get that Buckner and Leonard are both all-pro caliber players and very few teams in the league would be able to play without losing an all-pro at the same level they can with them... but when either of those guys were hurt last year, it was so obvious how much they were missed and how much inadequacies they could mask when they were out there.  

 

Also, we have to really emphasize the difference in our strength of schedule early vs. late last year.  Our three best D games came week 2, 3, and 4 (at least in terms of points allowed) vs. a 7-9 MIN team (11th in scoring offense, we held them to 11), a 2-14 NYJ team (32nd in scoring offense, we held the worst team in the league to 7), and an 8-8 Bears team (22nd in scoring offense, we held them to 11).  Then in week 17 we held JAX to 14 (they were 30th in scoring offense).  Aside from those games we held TEN to 17 in our win against them when we more or less kept Henry in check, and every other game we allowed 20+ (we averaged 22.6 pts/game allowed for 10th best scoring D in league).  Given that 2 of our 3 best games (scoring wise anyway) on D came in weeks 3 and 4 against the worst and 22nd worst O's in the league, it isn't really a shock that our ranking fell as the year went on.  On the flipside, had we played GB (1st scoring O in league), BAL (9th scoring O), and TEN (4th scoring O in league, especially if we played them without Buckner) in weeks 2, 3, 4 (instead of weeks 9, 11, 12) and played NYJ, CHI, MIN the same in weeks 9, 11, 12... we would have gone from a very bad D (points allowed) to a top 10 D (points allowed) after the first 1/4 of the season.  

 

Honestly though, I think it's simple. Our pass coverage just isn't that good. Early, late,,, we gave out 300+ to any above average QB lol it seemed.

 

We played only a few good passing QBs.

 

Big Ben - 340+ yards

Rodgers - 310+ yards

Watson - 370+ yards and 340+ yards

Stafford - 330+ yards

 

And even 

Carr - 310+ yards

 

And then in the playoffs

Allen 320+ yards...

 

I'm guessing they all got more than their 2020 average per game vs Indy.

 

And let's not forget Minshew looked like a surgeon against us... Didn't get the yards, but dinked and dunked himself to 3TDs... 

 

 

[AKB]

 

9 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Honestly though, I think it's simple. Our pass coverage just isn't that good. Early, late,,, we gave out 300+ to any above average QB lol it seemed.

 

We played only a few good passing QBs.

 

Big Ben - 340+ yards

Rodgers - 310+ yards

Watson - 370+ yards and 340+ yards

Stafford - 330+ yards

 

And even 

Carr - 310+ yards

 

And then in the playoffs

Allen 320+ yards...

 

I'm guessing they all got more than their 2020 average per game vs Indy.

 

And let's not forget Minshew looked like a surgeon against us... Didn't get the yards, but dinked and dunked himself to 3TDs... 

 

 

East, look at the names of those QBs? They're all top guys...

 

The only one who isnt in the top of QBs would be Carr, and I will tell you for sure that there are plenmty of people who believe Carr is wayyy underrated. 

You expect us to always keep elite QBs under 300 per game? I'm not following.

 

[AKB]

24 minutes ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Speed and Okereke are going into year 3.  Okereke struggled some last year (personally, for the most part, I thought he regressed a bit from his rookie year, though he was used in a bit of a different role so I want to give him benefit of the doubt) -- I don't see him as 'added speed' from last year as he played 2/3 of the snaps (he and Walker were nearly equal with Walker at 67.5% and Oke at 66.4% - I get it, we may be faster on 1st down with Oke in there instead of Walker, but I still don't see him as 'added speed' and frankly he struggled against the run last year).  I hope to see Speed get some opportunity, and remain optimistic on him but he has barely seen the field on D over 2 years in the league and is largely an unknown.  I will also remain optimistic on Kwity (assuming he stays healthy), but he's expected to come in and replace a borderline HOFer in Justin Houston so I also don't want to get my hopes up there.  In the secondary, I expect Rhodes/Carrie/Moore will remain steady and hope to see Rock and Blackmon improve (I also hope to see Tell play well, though ESPN has him very low on the depth chart if that means anything)... that said I like Willis but think we've pretty much seen his ceiling and I don't want to hang my hat on a 5th round rookie safety (Shawn D., though he seems to be promising, he also seems to be battling injury right now and I haven't heard much about him at all this camp), or the other Sean D who is two years removed from missing 15 games and who only had 12 tackles last season.

 

If Lewis and Banogu play up to the hype they've been getting in preseason, that will be a good thing.  If Turay stays healthy and emerges as a legit passrusher, that will be a good thing.  If Rochell can be like Autry for us (I think he can), that will be a good thing.  If Paye's ankle truly isn't serious and he can play at a level near Houston (very high expectations for a rookie who is comin g in pretty raw), and he lives up to his hype, that will be a good thing.  If Buckner and Stewart both stay healthy and play at or above the level they played last year, that will be a great thing.   If all of these things happen, we'll probably have a pretty good pass rush and that will be helpful to our backend.

 

That is a whole lot of 'ifs', and while I remain optimistic, we also have to hope Leonard stays healthy because we are unproven at LB behind him.  My gut tells me our D will be improved, though, until I really don't think we'll know what we have until around week 5 or maybe even later.

 

 

What last year showed me was that we lack depth at critical positions on D.  This is understandable as we were (and still are) very young on D and we have quite a bit invested in our O.  I don't have time to get too in depth here, but let's just look at points allowed.  I know this is not 100% accurate to judge the D on because some points allowed were a direct result of our offense turning the ball over (e.g., week 1 against Jax two Rivers interceptions gave them two possessions starting inside our 30 which resulted in 10 points)... anyway, week 1 we gave up 27 (hypothetically 17 without those 10 points due to bad turnovers), week 2, 3, 4 we gave up 11 points, 7 points, 11 points (albeit to MIN, NYJ, CHI so not very good offensive teams)... then Leonard gets hurt and misses week 5 and 6 where we gave up 32 points to CLE (who had a good O) and 27 to CIN (not a bad O, but still a 4 win team).  Just from week 4 to week 6 our D rankings had to drop significantly, not saying it is all because Leonard was out, but our D was noticeably different without him.  Then, let's look at our two games vs. TEN -- the first time we played them we won 34-17 and held Derrick Henry to 103 yards rushing and 0 TDs... two weeks later with Buckner out (I believe due to covid protocol) we got thrashed 45-26 and allowed Henry to rush for 6.6 ypc for 178 yards and 3 TDs -- it was very obvious without the other true stud on our D (i.e., I consider Leonard and Buckner the only true studs on our D last year) that we had a significant weakness.

 

Don't get me wrong, I get that Buckner and Leonard are both all-pro caliber players and very few teams in the league would be able to play without losing an all-pro at the same level they can with them... but when either of those guys were hurt last year, it was so obvious how much they were missed and how much inadequacies they could mask when they were out there.  

 

Also, we have to really emphasize the difference in our strength of schedule early vs. late last year.  Our three best D games came week 2, 3, and 4 (at least in terms of points allowed) vs. a 7-9 MIN team (11th in scoring offense, we held them to 11), a 2-14 NYJ team (32nd in scoring offense, we held the worst team in the league to 7), and an 8-8 Bears team (22nd in scoring offense, we held them to 11).  Then in week 17 we held JAX to 14 (they were 30th in scoring offense).  Aside from those games we held TEN to 17 in our win against them when we more or less kept Henry in check, and every other game we allowed 20+ (we averaged 22.6 pts/game allowed for 10th best scoring D in league).  Given that 2 of our 3 best games (scoring wise anyway) on D came in weeks 3 and 4 against the worst and 22nd worst O's in the league, it isn't really a shock that our ranking fell as the year went on.  On the flipside, had we played GB (1st scoring O in league), BAL (9th scoring O), and TEN (4th scoring O in league, especially if we played them without Buckner) in weeks 2, 3, 4 (instead of weeks 9, 11, 12) and played NYJ, CHI, MIN the same in weeks 9, 11, 12... we would have gone from a very bad D (points allowed) to a top 10 D (points allowed) after the first 1/4 of the season.  

I said "added speed"

 

Okereke is faster than Walker. 

Paye is faster than Houston

Odeyingbo - Faster than Autry (when he returns)

Banagou/Turay getting their last chance most likely - gotta expect improvement. 

 

Rhodes (Additional year in system, assumably will react faster)

Same thought with Blackmon, who will also be another year in the system and another year away from his injury. 

 

So yeah, I think our defense will be faster. 

 

Also Speed, is definitely more athletic than Walker Jr. as well. 

[EastStreet]

Just now, AustinnKaine said:

Okay, so I am not blaming Rivers for anything that happened on defense. Except for turnovers that would be his fault. 

 

What I am saying is this - teams with mobile QBs, tend to stay on the field longer. Of course this is not always the case, but I remember A LOT, of times where a drive was ended because of Rivers not being able to move. AT ALL. It's not like he was reasonably mobile. No, if there was pressure, the play was over. Anyone who watched the colts last year could see that. Sirianni mentioned it today when he was asked about the mobility of Jalen. He referenced Rivers in particular. 

We were 8th in time of possession, so we kept the ball plenty.

Just now, AustinnKaine said:

 

Anyhow, I was not talking bad about anyone. And the website that I looked on had us 13th, with 2.5 sacks per game. Not sure where the variance is between the sites. My point wasn't that our defense was bad, it was that it would be better. 

I used sack %, which is more accurate than just sack quantity. Sack % takes into account sacks per pass play.

Regardless, we did extremely well given we are near league low in blitzing. I doubt any team that was close to our blitz % had anywhere near our sack %.

Just now, AustinnKaine said:

 

Not really sure what point you're trying to make though? 

Our pass D was very bad at times, especially late in the year. And you can't hang that on our lack of sacks. It was on our coverage.

Just now, AustinnKaine said:

 

I see that you mention our secondary. Pass rush directly influences the secondary play doesn't it? What about the fact they we had a rookie FS? A 2nd year SS? A young CB in Rhodes? And arguably the best slot corner in the league. We also have Rhodes who had one of his best seasons....

Rhodes and Moore graded well. Rhodes is not young. Are you talking about RYS... Blackmon had a very bad second half of the year once teams started testing him deep. Moore did have his ups and downs though. Just like he got killed vs Buffalo. Anyway, age doesn't matter. The point is, we were simply bad in coverage (DBs and LBs). Our guys trended down as the year went along, not up. That's not a trend that makes me assume improvement for the next season.

Just now, AustinnKaine said:

 

So yeah, the Bills game was bad but I'm not sure why you are singling that game out. Quite a few of those passes completed that game by the bills were exceptional catches. We also had a lot of bad penalties, and a lot of Allen running to the boundary and completing a pass? Really confused what you're trying to prove here.. 

I can talk about several games. We gave up 300+ yards to every QB that good/decent... Rodgers, Big Ben, Watson x2, Carr, Allen, etc.. We made Minshew look like a surgeon with 3 TDs.

[AKB]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

We were 8th in time of possession, so we kept the ball plenty.

I used sack %, which is more accurate than just sack quantity. Sack % takes into account sacks per pass play.

Regardless, we did extremely well given we are near league low in blitzing. I doubt any team that was close to our blitz % had anywhere near our sack %.

Our pass D was very bad at times, especially late in the year. And you can't hang that on our lack of sacks. It was on our coverage.

Rhodes and Moore graded well. Rhodes is not young. Are you talking about RYS... Blackmon had a very bad second half of the year once teams started testing him deep. Moore did have his ups and downs though. Just like he got killed vs Buffalo. Anyway, age doesn't matter. The point is, we were simply bad in coverage (DBs and LBs). Our guys trended down as the year went along, not up. That's not a trend that makes me assume improvement for the next season.

I can talk about several games. We gave up 300+ yards to every QB that good/decent... Rodgers, Big Ben, Watson x2, Carr, Allen, etc.. We made Minshew look like a surgeon with 3 TDs.

Yeah sorry I had a few typos I went back and fixed them, you got to my post a little quick. 

 

I understand what you are saying, that we did have good sack numbers. I agree with that. My main point is that I believe it will get better this year. I also believe that our secondary will be more comfortable. 

 

Now, as for the conversation about Rivers and the importance of mobility, we will most likely have to agree to disagree. I think we have had enough conversations together to know where each other stands on those topics. 

 

In conclusion: I think both our pass rush, and our turnover rate in the secondary will increase substantially this year. 

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

 

East, look at the names of those QBs? They're all top guys...

And all did better than their 2020 AVG YPG.... you know what that means right?

6 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

 

The only one who isnt in the top of QBs would be Carr, and I will tell you for sure that there are plenmty of people who believe Carr is wayyy underrated. 

You expect us to always keep elite QBs under 300 per game? I'm not following.

 

Carr and Big Ben weren't top 10 in YPG. BB was very mediocre last year.

 

Here's their AVGs vs what they did against Indy... 

Watson 301 - he beat his average twice  370 and 340... 

Allen 284 - easily beat his with 320+

Rodgers - 268... he got 310

Carr - 256.. he got 310

Big Been - 253... crushed his AVG by 80+,,,,, with 340+

 

And no, I don't expect to always keep them under 300... I do expect to keep them below their AVG most of the time if we actually had a top 10 D.... 

 

[AKB]

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

And all did better than their 2020 AVG YPG.... you know what that means right?

Carr and Big Ben weren't top 10 in YPG. BB was very mediocre last year.

 

Here's their AVGs vs what they did against Indy... 

Watson 301 - he beat his average twice  370 and 340... 

Allen 284 - easily beat his with 320+

Rodgers - 268... he got 310

Carr - 256.. he got 310

Big Been - 253... crushed his AVG by 80+,,,,, with 340+

 

And no, I don't expect to always keep them under 300... I do expect to keep them below their AVG most of the time if we actually had a top 10 D.... 

 

We beat Watson, Rodgers, and Carr. So we scored more points than them. Our defense has stated multiple times they dont care about yards, they care about points. 

 

We barely lost to Allen.

 

Big Ben has tossed all over the Colts defense since he's been in the league? That's kinda what he's done his whole career. I'm just not seeing your point. You know this is a cover 2 defense right? They give up yards. The idea is that the takeaways, time decary from checkdowns, and sound football will result in turnovers. They can get all the way down to the end zone, it really doesn't matter so long as they dont get a tuddy. 

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, AustinnKaine said:

We beat Watson, Rodgers, and Carr. So we scored more points than them. Our defense has stated multiple times they dont care about yards, they care about points. 

 

We barely lost to Allen.

 

Big Ben has tossed all over the Colts defense since he's been in the league? That's kinda what he's done his whole career. I'm just not seeing your point. You know this is a cover 2 defense right? They give up yards. The idea is that the takeaways, time decary from checkdowns, and sound football will result in turnovers. They can get all the way down to the end zone, it really doesn't matter so long as they dont get a tuddy. 

It's this simple..

 

If you have a top 10 pass D, would you not logically expect your pass D to hold most QBs under their AVG? This is a very simple point.....

 

As far as scoring.... Our RZ D was ranked 21st... Not good. What helped us out a lot, was that our offense was top 10 in time of possession, so other teams simply had the ball less. 

 

Our good pass D results early were simply a product of playing a bunch bad teams/QBs.

 

 

[Zoltan]

13 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

Yeah sorry I had a few typos I went back and fixed them, you got to my post a little quick. 

 

I understand what you are saying, that we did have good sack numbers. I agree with that. My main point is that I believe it will get better this year. I also believe that our secondary will be more comfortable. 

 

Now, as for the conversation about Rivers and the importance of mobility, we will most likely have to agree to disagree. I think we have had enough conversations together to know where each other stands on those topics. 

 

In conclusion: I think both our pass rush, and our turnover rate in the secondary will increase substantially this year. 

 

I tend to agree with you more than East on this debate, as for the QB YPG being above 300 I think it is a bad measure of our defense, for the fact the defense is built to bend not break meaning that they will give up yards but not points. Now when it comes to upgrades on defense I think we did see an upgrade at DE and will see improvements at DB remember Blackmon wasn't suppose to play so early so if he got gassed at the end of the season it seems reasonable because his offseason was doing rehab not conditioning/strength training. Lastly I will just say with a better pass rush, I believe our secondary will do better, Autry and Houston did well for us but I think you will see both take huge steps back this season

[Zoltan]

6 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

It's this simple..

 

If you have a top 10 pass D, would you not logically expect your pass D to hold most QBs under their AVG? This is a very simple point.....

 

As far as scoring.... Our RZ D was ranked 21st... Not good. What helped us out a lot, was that our offense was top 10 in time of possession, so other teams simply had the ball less. 

 

Our good pass D results early were simply a product of playing a bunch bad teams/QBs.

 

 

 

I think you are making the mistake of looking at just the stats and not each individual games, when looking at the scores of the games that had 300+ passers in 4 of the 7 we had early leads and in the Detroit game we took a large lead by the end of the second quarter. This required the other team to abandon the run and throw alot more like Big Ben who through the ball 49 times (which I think we can all agree it would be hard to throw the ball 49 times and not get to 300+ yards) Pittsburg also only had 22 total rushing yards.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

 

I think you are making the mistake of looking at just the stats and not each individual games, when looking at the scores of the games that had 300+ passers in 4 of the 7 we had early leads and in the Detroit game we took a large lead by the end of the second quarter. This required the other team to abandon the run and throw alot more like Big Ben who through the ball 49 times (which I think we can all agree it would be hard to throw the ball 49 times and not get to 300+ yards) Pittsburg also only had 22 total rushing yards.

I can go game by game if you want. Doesn't matter about the game situation. Pitt was down, and they stopped running. They passed their way to a win.... We couldn't stop them. BTW, their run game was abandoned a lot last year.

 

When you give up a lot of yards, sorry, that's just not good. It would be OK if you had a good RZ and 3rd down D.... 

But we had a 21st ranked RZ D, and 18th ranked 3rd down D, and normally a ton of yards will doom a team with those two ranks. Our saving grace was our offense last year who was top 10 in time of possession. And our run D to a lesser extent. And the fact we played a very poor schedule... 

 

PS... All teams have times when they have to throw a lot. It's all part of the AVG.... Happened to us several times too. And also, when you give up cushion like we did last year from time to time, it just begs a team to throw dinks all night. That'll work if your 3rd down D is good. Ours wasn't. Beating up on dumpster fire teams padded our stats. Heck, we split with Jax, and had close calls with Houston....  We had to throw our way to a win vs Cinci because we gave up 300+ to Burrow.

[CurBeatElite]

1 hour ago, AustinnKaine said:

I said "added speed"

 

Okereke is faster than Walker. 

Paye is faster than Houston

Odeyingbo - Faster than Autry (when he returns)

Banagou/Turay getting their last chance most likely - gotta expect improvement. 

 

Rhodes (Additional year in system, assumably will react faster)

Same thought with Blackmon, who will also be another year in the system and another year away from his injury. 

 

So yeah, I think our defense will be faster. 

 

Also Speed, is definitely more athletic than Walker Jr. as well. 

 

You said: "Our added speed with Kwity, Speed, Okereke, Shawn D."

 

I said I don't really consider Okereke as an addition since he played >2/3 of the snaps last year.  I get he will likely replace Walker on first downs, so we may be a little faster there, but Oke seemed to struggle mightily vs. the run last year so I'm not so sure replacing Walker with him on running downs is going to be a benefit, even if we are a little faster.

 

Paye has better combine measurables coming in as a rookie than Houston does as an old vet, sure... he's still a rookie who is raw coming into the league -- will he actually be faster in live game action?  Time will tell.  Same for Odeyingbo.

 

Rhodes has played in this system before (or very similar).  He's on the wrong side of 30.  More likely than not, he's not getting any faster.

 

Agree on Blackmon.

 

Speed is more athletic than Walker, for sure -- see my comments on Paye-Houston above -- we have nothing to go by regarding Speed on D (well very, very little).  

 

Like I said, I'll remain optimistic, but we have a LOT of ifs on our D this year.

 

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

 

Honestly though, I think it's simple. Our pass coverage just isn't that good. Early, late,,, we gave out 300+ to any above average QB lol it seemed.

 

We played only a few good passing QBs.

 

Big Ben - 340+ yards

Rodgers - 310+ yards

Watson - 370+ yards and 340+ yards

Stafford - 330+ yards

 

And even 

Carr - 310+ yards

 

And then in the playoffs

Allen 320+ yards...

 

I'm guessing they all got more than their 2020 average per game vs Indy.

 

And let's not forget Minshew looked like a surgeon against us... Didn't get the yards, but dinked and dunked himself to 3TDs... 

 

 

 

I get what you're saying and I don't totally disagree.  That said, a strong pass rush greatly helps the pass coverage.  I know you'll point out that we had good pressure %, but we also had a lot of pressures in which we failed to actually sack the QB, hit the QB, significantly alter the QBs ability to get rid of the ball, or tip the ball/bat the ball down.  I remember a game where DeFo was mic'ed up and said something like "I am so close, I gotta stop being close and actually hit the QB, it's coming." He then went on to make a big play (I think a safety or a sack-fumble).  It seemed like Buckner was not the only one who was just a step or two away from turning 'pressure' into either a sack or a scenario I just mentioned which may result in an interception or a bad throw.  I think we'll need more of them this season than just 'pressure' per se.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

You said: "Our added speed with Kwity, Speed, Okereke, Shawn D."

 

I said I don't really consider Okereke as an addition since he played >2/3 of the snaps last year.  I get he will likely replace Walker on first downs, so we may be a little faster there, but Oke seemed to struggle mightily vs. the run last year so I'm n

I get what you're saying and I don't totally disagree.  That said, a strong pass rush greatly helps the pass coverage.  I know you'll point out that we had good pressure %, but we also had a lot of pressures in which we failed to actually sack the QB, hit the QB, significantly alter the QBs ability to get rid of the ball, or tip the ball/bat the ball down.  I remember a game where DeFo was mic'ed up and said something like "I am so close, I gotta stop being close and actually hit the QB, it's coming." He then went on to make a big play (I think a safety or a sack-fumble).  It seemed like Buckner was not the only one who was just a step or two away from turning 'pressure' into either a sack or a scenario I just mentioned which may result in an interception or a bad throw.  I think we'll need more of them this season than just 'pressure' per se.

Our sack % was top 10ish, actually better than our pressure %. IMO, our ultra low blitz % kept us from being better in the pressure % space. The sack % was extremely high for our blitz %.

 

I think Oke will struggle big time vs the run this year. Hope I'm wrong, but he's always struggled vs the run since his college days. My dream, Oke hit the weights biggly this off season, and will be able to shed much better, and navigate traffic. 

 

And I agree, we were so close, so many times. But that's what happens when an OL can sit back and get comfortable, knowing you're only rushing 4. If we were more creative, stunting and blitzing, I'm pretty sure we could have have wreaked some havoc. We had a DE that was top 10 in pass rush win rate, yet he was considered aged and ineffective by most on the board. I don't want to be blitz happy like Pitt or Balt, but I don't want to be near league low either in blitz %. Need a good mix. 

 

In short, pass rush helps coverage, and coverage helps pass rush. IMO, the stats clearly show our pass rush was statistically better than our coverage. Chicken before the egg conversation, but you have to ignore a lot of data to think the pass rush was more at fault. I think most at fault though was our scheme and/or play calling.

[TimetobringDfence!]

22 hours ago, AustinnKaine said:

Defense is not too high.

 

We will have a top 5 ST.

 

Offense will be top 15. 

With a ceiling and floor. I'm optimistic lol

Off 7th-15th. QB play sinks or swims us. But our RBs and Oline keep us relevant. 

Def 1st-12th. I believe we got great leaders and cohesive unit building. If Paye is Dawg Leonard said he is, we are gonna shine going into playoffs.