If you're wondering how good Malik Hooker was this year

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

 

stats are not perfect but  do you have anything that points to him being no better than replacement level players?  this is saying that QBs throw and complete against other safetys more than him

 

 

I've thought about your question more and I'll say this as it also points to the problem of looking at stats and not circumstances.

 

KC did NOT throw the ball deep on us, no more than a handful of times.  Did they do this because JJ Wilcox was back there, or because they moved the ball at will without having to put it in the air a long time?

 

Other than an over the top play to Kelce right after we scored our TD, most if not all of those long passes fell incomplete because Mahomes was off target.  

 

So you can use stats to say that Wilcox wasn't targeted very much, and that when he was targeted there were few completions.  A person who questions Hooker could also say that Wilcox piled up 6 tackles where Hooker barely has any when he plays.  So that person could use stats to support the idea that a street FA we picked up a few weeks (days?) before the game played better than any game Hooker played in all year.

 

I wouldn't say that because I look at circumstances more than stats.  I  can't watch every play of every game so its tough to ever have a strong opinion.  But my original question that asks for a deeper explanation of what Hooker does back there was an attempt to get past the stats and into the circumstances.

[aaron11]

42 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I've thought about your question more and I'll say this as it also points to the problem of looking at stats and not circumstances.

 

KC did NOT throw the ball deep on us, no more than a handful of times.  Did they do this because JJ Wilcox was back there, or because they moved the ball at will without having to put it in the air a long time?

 

Other than an over the top play to Kelce right after we scored our TD, most if not all of those long passes fell incomplete because Mahomes was off target.  

 

So you can use stats to say that Wilcox wasn't targeted very much, and that when he was targeted there were few completions.  A person who questions Hooker could also say that Wilcox piled up 6 tackles where Hooker barely has any when he plays.  So that person could use stats to support the idea that a street FA we picked up a few weeks (days?) before the game played better than any game Hooker played in all year.

 

I wouldn't say that because I look at circumstances more than stats.  I  can't watch every play of every game so its tough to ever have a strong opinion.  But my original question that asks for a deeper explanation of what Hooker does back there was an attempt to get past the stats and into the circumstances.

 

if you dont want to go by stats and you cant watch every play then what else is there?  all we have left are things like pff or madden ratings

 

pff rated him the 13th best safety in the league, and they got that by watching every snap.  13th isnt elite, but considering every team starts at least two its above average, and that is where i put him too going by the eye test

 

we will never know if a replacement player would have allowed more completions, but i think they would have

 

[MacDee1975]

On 1/20/2019 at 9:02 PM, MacDee1975 said:

That's weird, because I thought many of the delusional expert wannabe's that populate this board were telling me how he wasn't playing well this year.

 

Another huge whiff for them.....yet again.

 

Now que said experts, who will now come on here after seeing this news, and tell us that PFF is wrong and they, the anonymous message board poster, actually know better then the entity that is paid and in the business of conducting such analysis.

 

On 1/21/2019 at 6:46 AM, Pacergeek said:

From actually watching the games, Hooker did not have a good year. I don't need a spread sheet to tell me my eyes were incorrect

 

Like I said.....

[Superman]

56 minutes ago, DougDew said:

KC did NOT throw the ball deep on us, no more than a handful of times.  Did they do this because JJ Wilcox was back there, or because they moved the ball at will without having to put it in the air a long time?

 

KC didn't need to throw deep, but we also keep a safety back out of an abundance of caution.

 

There was a specific play up the right sideline where Mahomes was off target, and the ball was incomplete. Our safety -- I don't remember which, might have been Wilcox -- was about five yards away when the ball hit the ground. I remember thinking that Hooker would have made a play on the ball because of his outstanding range and ball skills.

 

 

 

 

That's what's missing in this discussion about Hooker's value and impact. He's a playmaker, he turns innocuous incompletions into interceptions. And in theory -- but we've seen it in practice -- he would have changed the way our defense defended KC on the back end.

 

Of course, we had other serious problems on defense, so I'm certainly not claiming that our defense would have shut them down if Hooker was there. 

[DougDew]

32 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

 

if you dont want to go by stats and you cant watch every play then what else is there?  all we have left are things like pff or madden ratings

 

pff rated him the 13th best safety in the league, and they got that by watching every snap.  13th isnt elite, but considering every team starts at least two its above average, and that is where i put him too going by the eye test

 

we will never know if a replacement player would have allowed more completions, but i think they would have

 

That's certainly a fair way to do it.  

 

Some like PFF and some don't.  I like to understand the circumstances.  I can't have a strong opinion on Hooker one way or the other because I hardly ever see him on the screen until the play is over.  Me watching the plays on a screen isn't the best way, but its something.  Like I've implied, I don't know what he's doing back there and would like to know how everybody else seems to know, including PFF for that matter.  When I get time or care enough I might look into it myself.  Its great, or good enough, that he's ranked 13th by PFF.  Which supports my notion that he is fine.  Its worse than being ranked 5th by PFF but better than 25th.

 

I know he's young and is returning from an ACL so we should expect more in the next few years, but that aside based upon this ranking he hasn't earned a top 10 contract, right?  Definitely not franchise tag worthy?

 

There are a few years yet before that decision needs to be made.

 

 

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

KC didn't need to throw deep, but we also keep a safety back out of an abundance of caution.

 

There was a specific play up the right sideline where Mahomes was off target, and the ball was incomplete. Our safety -- I don't remember which, might have been Wilcox -- was about five yards away when the ball hit the ground. I remember thinking that Hooker would have made a play on the ball because of his outstanding range and ball skills.

 

 

 

 

That's what's missing in this discussion about Hooker's value and impact. He's a playmaker, he turns innocuous incompletions into interceptions. And in theory -- but we've seen it in practice -- he would have changed the way our defense defended KC on the back end.

 

Of course, we had other serious problems on defense, so I'm certainly not claiming that our defense would have shut them down if Hooker was there. 

I agree.  My point was the use of stats as a replacement for understanding circumstances.  You've made a point by discussing the circumstances and that adds value.

[DougDew]

  

Edit:   I will say that you are showing something that helps support that Hooker is a highly touted player by showing me what another safety did or did not do, not by plays that Hooker himself made. 

 

So what play(s) shows that Hooker has superior range and ball skills and that he turns innocuous incompletions into interceptions?  He did that in college playing with Lattimore et al, and against Carson Palmer early last year.  I have a hard time believing that good NFL QBs will/are choosing to give up a big chunk of the field simply because of that limited resume.  He must be positioning himself in a way that give QBs pause, and we can't see that because it takes place off camera.

 

I think he will get more opportunities next year to confirm it.

 

[Superman]

33 minutes ago, DougDew said:

  

Edit:   I will say that you are showing something that helps support that Hooker is a highly touted player by showing me what another safety did or did not do, not by plays that Hooker himself made. 

 

So what play(s) shows that Hooker has superior range and ball skills and that he turns innocuous incompletions into interceptions?  He did that in college playing with Lattimore et al, and against Carson Palmer early last year.  I have a hard time believing that good NFL QBs will/are choosing to give up a big chunk of the field simply because of that limited resume.  He must be positioning himself in a way that give QBs pause, and we can't see that because it takes place off camera.

 

I think he will get more opportunities next year to confirm it.

 

 

I think offenses know that Hooker has great range and ball skills, it's in the scouting report. And I think they know that our defense is designed to limit big plays.

 

I also think they know exactly how to attack our coverages, especially when our pass rush isn't getting home. That showed in the KC game. Don't need to throw deep if I have wide open receivers in the intermediate (it also helps that our linebackers had no idea what to do when KC put receivers in motion). Especially if we're keeping a safety over the top.

 

So I'm not saying it's all 'don't test Hooker, he'll get you,' but I do think there were plays against KC that Hooker could have made, and I think his ability to make those plays is unique. JJ Wilcox certainly doesn't have that range and those ball skills.

[DougDew]

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think offenses know that Hooker has great range and ball skills, it's in the scouting report. And I think they know that our defense is designed to limit big plays.

 

I also think they know exactly how to attack our coverages, especially when our pass rush isn't getting home. That showed in the KC game. Don't need to throw deep if I have wide open receivers in the intermediate (it also helps that our linebackers had no idea what to do when KC put receivers in motion). Especially if we're keeping a safety over the top.

 

So I'm not saying it's all 'don't test Hooker, he'll get you,' but I do think there were plays against KC that Hooker could have made, and I think his ability to make those plays is unique. JJ Wilcox certainly doesn't have that range and those ball skills.

But has Hooker been tested very much this season AFTER coming off the ACL?  I can't believe that good QBs are giving up the field without even testing his speed every so often, simply judging him on what he did pre injury.  The popular notion that he lacks stats because QBs don't want to test him seems a bit fluffy to me.  I think it has more to do with our coverages and the rest of the defense than Hooker himself.

 

Also, Hooker is not known as a tackling machine.  Maybe the way teams are choosing to play him is to throw it underneath and force him to make a tackle.  Not that he's bad.  That would be choosing to exploit a weakness more so than fear of throwing it deep.  Just another thought.

 

It looks like Wilcox's history is that he tends to be good enough to start, but then teams upgrade his position  with a higher profile FA or draft pick the next year.  He's always produced good tackling stats, but it appears he lacks that extra quality in the passing game.  Seems like a decent zone defense DB.  I think he's played with Eberflus in Dallas and Mike Mitchell in Pitt.

[Superman]

7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

But has Hooker been tested very much this season AFTER coming off the ACL?  I can't believe that good QBs are giving up the field without even testing his speed every so often, judging him on what he did pre injury.  The notion that he lacks stats because QBs don't want to test him seems a bit fluffy to me.  I think it has more to do with our coverages and the rest of the defense than Hooker himself.

  

Also, Hooker is not known as a tackling machine.  Maybe the way teams are choosing to play him is to throw it underneath and force him to make a tackle.  Not that he's bad.  That would be choosing to exploit a weakness more so than fear of throwing it deep.  Just another thought.

 

He didn't get tested, and as you said, a big part of it is our coverages. Maybe the biggest part of it. But Hooker is rarely out of position, which limits the opportunities offenses have to throw the ball deep. It's hard to grade a safety who stays over the top, but part of the reason Hooker has good grades with PFF for instance is that he tends to be where he's supposed to be.

 

But you're right, he's not a good tackler. The only big plays he gave up were plays in which he blew a tackle -- like on Moncrief in the second Jags game. But that didn't happen a whole lot, either. 

 

In a more general sense, though, I'm giving Hooker credit for his playmaking ability because I know he has it. And that's where he provides value above a replacement level player like Wilcox.

[colt18]

4 hours ago, DougDew said:

But has Hooker been tested very much this season AFTER coming off the ACL?  I can't believe that good QBs are giving up the field without even testing his speed every so often, simply judging him on what he did pre injury.  The popular notion that he lacks stats because QBs don't want to test him seems a bit fluffy to me.  I think it has more to do with our coverages and the rest of the defense than Hooker himself.

 

Also, Hooker is not known as a tackling machine.  Maybe the way teams are choosing to play him is to throw it underneath and force him to make a tackle.  Not that he's bad.  That would be choosing to exploit a weakness more so than fear of throwing it deep.  Just another thought.

 

It looks like Wilcox's history is that he tends to be good enough to start, but then teams upgrade his position  with a higher profile FA or draft pick the next year.  He's always produced good tackling stats, but it appears he lacks that extra quality in the passing game.  Seems like a decent zone defense DB.  I think he's played with Eberflus in Dallas and Mike Mitchell in Pitt.

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/22/indianapolis-colts-malik-hooker-wasnt-challenged-2018/

[DougDew]

4 hours ago, Superman said:

 

He didn't get tested, and as you said, a big part of it is our coverages. Maybe the biggest part of it. But Hooker is rarely out of position, which limits the opportunities offenses have to throw the ball deep. It's hard to grade a safety who stays over the top, but part of the reason Hooker has good grades with PFF for instance is that he tends to be where he's supposed to be.

 

But you're right, he's not a good tackler. The only big plays he gave up were plays in which he blew a tackle -- like on Moncrief in the second Jags game. But that didn't happen a whole lot, either. 

 

In a more general sense, though, I'm giving Hooker credit for his playmaking ability because I know he has it. And that's where he provides value above a replacement level player like Wilcox.

I think that is the key.  I assume QBs see him in the correct spot and don't test him because of that, not necessarily because they see its Malik Hooker there specifically.  IOW, a FS who is consistently in the right spot has an advantage, and if that's where Hooker excels over other safeties in the passing game, I accept that.  Its simply hard to see that from the TV and back that up with tape, so there has to be an assumption about that for most of us.

 

I think of Wilcox, Farley, Mitchell, and Geathers as the same player basically.  All are decent, but I'd prefer to get more potential playmaking out of the SS spot, specifically in the run game ala Bob Sanders, but that lofty goal is wishful thinking.

[Valpo2004]

On 1/21/2019 at 2:28 PM, Pacergeek said:

He rarely made plays. There is this narrative, that because Hooker played so well, nobody threw his way. I'm not buying this. Hooker was drafted in the first round to make plays. Be a difference maker. He is not one

 

There is only one way a free safety "makes plays" by your definition and that is picking off passes or deflecting them.  

 

He is your last line of defense so if he's making a big tackle than it is because your opponent probably gained 30 yards on the play.  So no one is going to see it as "making a play" when he tackles a guy 30 yards down the field.

 

If the Free Safety isn't getting thrown at then he isn't picking off many passes or deflecting them.  

 

In reality shutting down the deep end of the field is making plays for a free safety because when you are a DB it's actually better when your name isn't called.  The best DB's shut down portions of the field so opposing QB's don't throw there.  

[Valpo2004]

22 hours ago, DougDew said:

I think that is the key.  I assume QBs see him in the correct spot and don't test him because of that, not necessarily because they see its Malik Hooker there specifically.  IOW, a FS who is consistently in the right spot has an advantage, and if that's where Hooker excels over other safeties in the passing game, I accept that.  Its simply hard to see that from the TV and back that up with tape, so there has to be an assumption about that for most of us.

 

I think of Wilcox, Farley, Mitchell, and Geathers as the same player basically.  All are decent, but I'd prefer to get more potential playmaking out of the SS spot, specifically in the run game ala Bob Sanders, but that lofty goal is wishful thinking.

 

It's not just seeing him in the right spot but it's knowing from watching film that he has the speed to get there and pick off your pass.  

 

When we drafted him there was a video that was posted on here about him.  In the video the person doing it highlighted an entire game in college that the opposing team didn't even try to go more than 15 yards downfield because of Hooker.  Hooker probably never got his name called once in that game.  But his presence was felt.  If you are taking away a certain end of the field because the OC views throwing to that end to be too risky, you are making life a lot more difficult on the offense.  

[Valpo2004]

Here is one for you.  An article written in the middle of the season and it cites an interesting statistic

 

the Colts rank 4th in passing plays of more than 20 yards allowed

 

https://www.1070thefan.com/node/190951

 

Limiting big plays is a big big part of the free safety's job.  

[Valpo2004]

Here is another tidbit

 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2018/12/05/complicated-sophomore-season-indianapolis-colts-safety-malik-hooker/2213748002/

 

"He has a point. According to Pro Football Focus, Hooker's only seen four targets in nine starts this season, allowing two catches for 36 yards. Last year he saw eight targets in six starts, allowing four catches."

 

A DB plays 9 games as a starter, only see's 4 targets in 9 games. . . Yeah I would say QB's where avoiding him.  

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/22/indianapolis-colts-malik-hooker-wasnt-challenged-2018/

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2018/10/11/17962310/film-room-where-is-malik-hooker-this-season

 

Stampedeblue really has good analysis of what his role is in the new scheme.