Want value? Draft players with off-the-field issues, avoid players with on-the-field issues, says study

[stitches]

I don't know if you've read that study by Hamilton College professor Stephen Wu and his student Kendall Weir. They studied 1273 players drafted between 2005 and 2009 and found out something interesting - contrary to expected. Here are some of the interesting findings:

-players with off-the-field issues(arrests, charges, convictions) perform at about the same level as players without any off-the-field issues, but when you control for the drop in draft position(about 16-22 positions drop usually) because of their issues, you get better production from those players than players without issues drafted at the same range

-players with on-the-field issues(i.e. suspended for at least one game for violating team rules) performed worse than players without issues drafted in the same range

 

On average, "players who have a history of criminal charges were penalized too much in their draft position. On average, having an encounter with law enforcement does not negatively predict performance.”

“The players who were suspended for team or university violations weren't penalized enough,” Wu continued. “They did not perform as well as players drafted in the same round. We don't know the exact nature of team suspensions, but these are often for clashes with a coach or teammate."

“In a nutshell, what this means is that if a team is on the fence about drafting a player who had been suspended for clashing with his college coach or violating team rules, the team might not want to take that gamble. But it might be less risky to draft a player with a criminal record.

“We think teams could benefit by taking more risks, on a case-by-case basis, to draft players with criminal histories. A run-in with the law may or may not reflect on long-term character; teams could use this research to enhance their decision-making.”

 

http://www.hamilton.edu/news/story/ny-times-and-ajc-highlight-wu-and-weir-12-nfl-draft-study

[chad72]

Randy Moss and Dez Bryant??? Didn't they both drop because of off the field issues?

[BlueShoe]

Makes perfect sense that players mature on and off the field at different speeds. 

 

I can certainly see where a team environment is more likely to be functional while a players family life might be dysfunctional. 

 

Good read. Thanks for sharing.