One Week Out: NCF's 4th round Top Picks (100-139)

[NewColtsFan]

The last of my series.   Hope it's given people some food for thought and topics of discussion....

 

 

 

NCF’s 2015 4^th Round Top-37 (100-136)

 

 

There are 37 picks for the fourth round, including the compensatory picks.   This round, more safeties and interior lineman.

 

100.    Ali Marpet             OG/C       Hobart

101.    Jaquiski Tartt          S          Samford

102.    Sean Mannion         QB        Oregon St.

103.    Alex Carter             DB         Stanford

104.    Anthony Chickillo   DE         Miami

105.    Jeremy Langford    RB         Michigan St.

106.    Tre McBride            WR        William & Mary

107.    Kenny Bell              WR        Nebraska

108.    Davis Tull                OLB      Chattanooga

109.    Jeff Heuerman        TE         Ohio St.

110.    Brett Hundley         QB         UCLA

111.    ZaDarius Smith       DE         Kentucky

 

112.    Adrian Amos             S          Penn St.

113.    Tyrus Thompson      OT        Oklahoma

114.    Jacorey Shepherd    CB       Kansas

115.    Mike Davis               RB        South Carolina

116.    Hayes Pullard          ILB       USC

117.    Cody Prewitt             S         Mississippi

118.    Jeremiah Poutasi     OG       Utah

119.    Ramik Wilson            LB       Georgia

120.    Shelton Diggs           WR       Maryland

121.    Ibraheim Campbell    S         Northwestern

122.    Kyle Emmanuel        OLB      N. Dakota St.

123.    Clayton Gaethers       S         Central Florida

124.    Corey Robinson         OT        South Carolina

125.    Buck Allen                 RB        USC

126.    Christian Covington  DT         Rice

127.    Tyler Kroft                 TE         Rutgers

128.    Jack Ryan                  LB        Michigan

129.    Jarvis Harrison          OG        Texas A&M

130.    Tye Smith                   CB        Tyson

131.    B.J. Finney                  C          Kansas St.

132.    Dez Lewis                   WR        Arkansas St.

133.    Chaz Green                 OT        Florida

134.    Corey Crawford          DE        South Carolina

135.    Matt Jones                 RB        Florida

136.    Ty Montgomery          WR       Stanford

 

 

NOTE:   I originally thought this round was 40 picks deep lasting to 139.   So, you get bonus rankings….

 

137.    Xavier Williams           DT        Northern Iowa

138.    Jordan Hicks               ILB       Texas

139.    Max Garcia                  C           Florida

 

 

NOTE:  The further you get away from the first round the more teams start drafting by need.   So, the more mistakes you’ll see in projections and forecasts.   I did poorly in this round last year, and I expect to again this year.   

[Dustin]

Ty Montgomery?

[Gavin]

Any way to combine your other picks in the first 3 rounds with this one

[NewColtsFan]

Ty Montgomery?

 

Is there a question there?

 

You think bottom of the 4th round is too high?

[Dustin]

Is there a question there?

 

You think bottom of the 4th round is too high?

 

Yes. By about 2 rounds. 

[NewColtsFan]

Yes. By about 2 rounds. 

 

I think next year you should commit to doing at least a 3 round projection (top-100)  if not a 4-round.

 

It might give you some sense of the type of athlete/skill level of everyone below your top-64.

 

Since I have him at the bottom of the 4th, he could easily drop into the 5th.    I think 6th round is silly and frankly not a position that has a good argument.

[Dustin]

I think next year you should commit to doing at least a 3 round projection (top-100) if not a 4-round.

It might give you some sense of the type of athlete/skill level of everyone below your top-64.

Since I have him at the bottom of the 4th, he could easily drop into the 5th. I think 6th round is silly and frankly not a position that has a good argument.

Unless I'm mistaken, you haven't listed Justin Hardy yet. What does Montgomery do better than Hardy?

Edit: I meant Jamison Crowder

[Dustin]

Btw, CBS has him with a 6th-7th round grade.

[Dustin]

Unless I'm mistaken, you haven't listed Justin Hardy yet. What does Montgomery do better than Hardy?

Jamison Crowder I meant. The guy from Duke.

[NewColtsFan]

Unless I'm mistaken, you haven't listed Justin Hardy yet. What does Montgomery do better than Hardy?

Edit: I meant Jamison Crowder

 

Crowder is right below Montgomery with a high 5th round grade.

 

I have Montgomery high due to size,  and kick return ability.

 

But I wouldn't be surprised if Crowder went higher....    I doubt I'd have them more than 10-15 picks apart... 

[Dustin]

Crowder is right below Montgomery with a high 5th round grade.

I have Montgomery high due to size, and kick return ability.

But I wouldn't be surprised if Crowder went higher.... I doubt I'd have them more than 10-15 picks apart...

Montgomery could be good if he moved to his true position, which is runningback.

[NewColtsFan]

Montgomery could be good if he moved to his true position, which is runningback.

 

That's what some Stanford people think too.    But I think the ship has sailed on that one....

 

He's never going to be a great receiver...   or even very good.    I was telling people here that very thing back in October and November when he was being viewed as a possible 2nd round pick.  

 

But he can become decent,  a 4th or 5th option...   but he's also a tremendous return guy...   he's a good team player,  a hard worker and his athleticism can offer a creative offensive coach some possibilities...

 

For a guy I have valued at the bottom of the 4th round,  I think he brings fair value....

 

And, for the record,  I don't want the Colts to take him in the 4th.    I think we'll have higher priorities.   Defense or a RB if we haven't taken one already...

 

But,  if he fell to us in the 5th, I'd be OK with it.

[NewColtsFan]

Btw, CBS has him with a 6th-7th round grade.

 

 

Actually CBS has him with a 5th/6th round grade.

 

But as I note all the time,  CBS is almost always the outlier in evaluations.     That's why I trust them the least of the ones I use....

 

ESPN has a 3rd/4th round grade,  and so does NFL.com

 

I don't see him in the 3rd at all.   And bottom of the 4th strikes me as not unreasonable...

 

Yes,  he could easily fall to the 5th....

[NewColtsFan]

Any way to combine your other picks in the first 3 rounds with this one

 

Your wish is my command.     And here you go.....

 

One long four round Big Board....   again,  not a mock....

 

 

NCF’s 2015 1^st Round Top 32

 

As I’ve said for the 2013 and 2014 drafts, I don’t think this is a great draft.   And I think the 1^st round only has about two dozen legit 1^st round talents.   The others have a high 2^nd round grade as happens most years.  I would not be surprised to see many of my final eight 1^st rounders in the second round and some of my highest 2^nd rounders in the bottom of the first.  

 

As I did last year, I break-up my rounds up into thirds.   This helps me focus on just how good a player I think he really is.  Guys in the top of any given round could sneak into the higher round.  Guys at the bottom third of any given round could fall into the round below.  For me that means a Top-10.  A middle-12, and a bottom-10.

 

This is NOT a mock.   Just my Big Board.

 

 

1.    Jameis Winston           QB         Florida St.

2.    Marcus Mariota            QB        Oregon

3.    Leonard Williams         DL         USC

4.    Amari Cooper               WR        Alabama

5.    Dexter Fowler              EDGE     Florida

6.    Kevin White                  WR        W. Virginia

7.    Vic Beasley                  OLB       Clemson

8.    Brandon Scherff           OL         Iowa

9.   Danny Shelton              DL         Washington

10. Todd Gurley                  RB        Georgia

 

 

11.  Tre Waynes                 CB           Michigan St.

12.  Devonte Parker           WR          Louisville

13.  Bud Depree                 EDGE       Kentucky

14.  La’el Collins                 OL           LSU

15.  Shane Ray                   EDGE       Missouri

16.  Arik Armstead             DE           Oregon

17.  Malcom Brown            DT            Texas

18.  Randy Gregory            EDGE        Nebraska

19.  Andrus Peat                 OT           Stanford

20.  Nelson Agholor            WR           USC

21.  Landon Collins             S              Alabama

22.  Melvin Gordon              RB           Wisconsin

 

23.  Kevin Johnson             CB            Wake Forest

24.  Brashard Perriman      WR            Central Florida

25.  Ereck Flowers              OT            Miami

26.  Marcus Peters              CB            Washington

27.  Eddie Goldman             DT            Florida St.

28.  D.J. Humphries            OT            Florida

29.  Cameron Erving            C              Florida St.

30.  Jaelen Strong               WR           Arizona St.

31.  Jaylen Collins               CB           LSU

32.  Byron Jones                 CB            Connecticut

 

 

NCF’s 2015 2^nd Round Top-32  (33-64)

 

Note:  I think it’s entirely probable that some of my second round players will go in the first.    And some of my lower ranked second rounders will land in the third.  But, for now, this is how I grade them out and prioritize them.

 

33.   Devin Smith         WR         Ohio St.

34.   Jake Fisher          OT         Oregon

35.   Hau’Oli Kikaha     OLB       Washington

36.   T.J. Clemmings    OT         Pittsburgh

37.   Eric Kendricks     LB         UCLA

38.   Preston Smith      DE         Mississippi St.

39.   Eli Harold             OLB       Virginia

40.   O. Ogizawa (sp?) DE         UCLA

41.   Michael Bennett  DT         Ohio St.

42.   Jay Ajayi              RB         Boise St.

 

43.   Cedric Oghuchi    OT         Texas A&M

44.   Ronald Darby       CB         Florida St.

45.   Phillip Dorsett      WR        Miami

46.   Jordan Phillips     NT         Oklahoma

47.   Ameer Abdullah   RB         Nebraska

48.   Carl Davis            DL          Iowa

49.   PJ Dawson           LB         TCU

50.   DG Beckham        WR        Oklahoma

51.   Grady Jarrett       DT         Clemson

52.   Maxx Williams     TE          Minnesota

53.   Denzel Perryman ILB         Miami

54.   Eric Rowe            CB/S       Utah

 

55.   Tevin Coleman         RB         Indiana

56.   Stephone Anthony   ILB        Clemson

57.   Quentin Rollins        CB         Ohio

58.   D. Randall                 S           Arizona St.

59.   Laken Tomlinson     OG         Duke

60.   Devin Funchess       WR        Michigan

61.   Shaq Thompson       LB/S      Washington

62.   Bryce Perry              QB         Baylor

63.   A.J. Cann                  OG        S. Carolina

64.   B. McKinney             ILB        Texas A&M

 

 

Note:   I only have four DB’s in the second round.  Two corners and two safeties.   I think more will be drafted, I just don’t know who.    And I only have two guards and no center for this round.   Not sure how likely that is.

Also…  Just one QB and one TE.  

 

Things will begin to balance out in the third and fourth rounds.   This is a bit of a strange first two rounds.

 

 

NCF’s 2015 3^rd Round Top-35  (65-99)

 

 

65.   Tyler Lockett           WR     Kansas St.

66.   Duke Johnson          RB     Miami

67.   Trey Flowers            DE     Arkansas

68.   Rashad Greene        WR    Florida St.

69.   Nate Orchard           OLB   Utah

70.   Donovan Smith        OT     Penn St.

71.   Tre Jackson            OG     Florida St.

72.   Al Harris                    S      Virginia

73.   PJ Williams              CB     Florida St.

74.   Clive Wafford           TE     Miami

 

75.   T.J. Yeldon               RB    Alabama

76.   Markus Golden         DE    Missouri

77.   Xavier Cooper          DT     Wash. St.

78.   D.J. Smith                CB     Florida Atlantic

79.   Mario Edwards         DE     Florida St.

80.   Daryl Williams          OT     Oklahoma

81.   Derron Smith            FS      Fresno St.

82.   Steve Nelson            CB     Oregon St.

83.   Henry Anderson       DE      Stanford

84.   Ifo Ekpre-Olomu       CB      Oregon

85.   Danielle Hunter       EDGE   LSU

86.   Senquez Golson       CB      Mississippi

87.   Lorenzo Mauldin      EDGE  Louisville

88.   Dorian Grant            OSU    Ohio St.

89.   Gabe Wright             DE       Auburn

 

90.   Ty Sambrailo          OT     Colorado St.

91.   Sammie Coates      WR    Auburn

92.   Marcus Hardison    DE     Arizona St.

93.   Justin Hardy           WR    East Carolina

94.   James Sample         S      Louisville

95.   Kwon Alexander    OLB    LSU

96.   Garrett Grayson     QB     Colorado St.

97.   David Johnson       RB      Northern Iowa

98.   Hroniss Grasu        C        Oregon

99.   Rob Havenstein      OT     Wisconsin

 

 

NOTE:   The further away from the first round you go, the less accurate you are.  Because at some point, it’s less about BPA and more about targeting.   And, as I’ve noted often, everyone sees the same thing differently.

 

The fourth and final round (for me) will be posted tomorrow,  Saturday, April 25.

 

 

 

NCF’s 2015 4^th Round Top-37 (100-136)

 

 

There are 37 picks for the fourth round, including the compensatory picks.   This round, more safeties and interior lineman.

 

100.    Ali Marpet             OG/C       Hobart

101.    Jaquiski Tartt          S          Samford

102.    Sean Mannion         QB        Oregon St.

103.    Alex Carter             DB         Stanford

104.    Anthony Chickillo   DE         Miami

105.    Jeremy Langford    RB         Michigan St.

106.    Tre McBride            WR        William & Mary

107.    Kenny Bell              WR        Nebraska

108.    Davis Tull                OLB      Chattanooga

109.    Jeff Heuerman        TE         Ohio St.

110.    Brett Hundley         QB         UCLA

111.    ZaDarius Smith       DE         Kentucky

 

112.    Adrian Amos             S          Penn St.

113.    Tyrus Thompson      OT        Oklahoma

114.    Jacorey Shepherd    CB       Kansas

115.    Mike Davis               RB        South Carolina

116.    Hayes Pullard          ILB       USC

117.    Cody Prewitt             S         Mississippi

118.    Jeremiah Poutasi     OG       Utah

119.    Ramik Wilson            LB       Georgia

120.    Shelton Diggs           WR       Maryland

121.    Ibraheim Campbell    S         Northwestern

122.    Kyle Emmanuel        OLB      N. Dakota St.

123.    Clayton Gaethers       S         Central Florida

 

124.    Corey Robinson         OT        South Carolina

125.    Buck Allen                 RB        USC

126.    Christian Covington  DT         Rice

127.    Tyler Kroft                 TE         Rutgers

128.    Jack Ryan                  LB        Michigan

129.    Jarvis Harrison          OG        Texas A&M

130.    Tye Smith                   CB        Tyson

131.    B.J. Finney                  C          Kansas St.

132.    Dez Lewis                   WR        Arkansas St.

133.    Chaz Green                 OT        Florida

134.    Corey Crawford          DE        South Carolina

135.    Matt Jones                 RB        Florida

136.    Ty Montgomery          WR       Stanford

 

 

NOTE:   I originally thought this round was 40 picks deep lasting to 139.   So, you get bonus rankings….

 

137.    Xavier Williams           DT        Northern Iowa

138.    Jordan Hicks               ILB       Texas

139.    Max Garcia                  C           Florida

 

 

NOTE:  The further you get away from the first round the more teams start drafting by need.   So, the more mistakes you’ll see in projections and forecasts.   I did poorly in this round last year, and I expect to again this year.