Latu looks like an immediate contributor, especially on passing downs. I think AD will supplant Pierce by season's end. The OL depth will come in handy.
The Colts certainly improved through the draft, but so did other teams as well. I don't think they improved more than other teams. But more importantly, I am not sure the ceiling of this team (outside of AR of course) raised all that much this offseason. And that's what I was hoping to see. This has been my "grievance" with Ballard. Relying almost solely on current players and younger guys to develop (like the rookies and DBs). They aren't really accounting for other team's improving...or for the difference in schedule IMO (like HOU did with their offseason moves).
I guess it all depends on how one viewed last season...and where you think the current floor is. But I agree that they overachieved...and that opponent QBs played a big role in that. Many of the bad QBs they faced either gave away games or just weren't competitive. And that's tough to bank on happening again.
The margin for error is pretty small when you are a 9-win team looking to make the playoffs. And having a few games flip from being easy one year to more challenging the next...could be the difference between 5-6 wins and 9-10 wins.
It really is going to come down to AR. Can he stay healthy? Can he reach his upside? It's always going to come down to this anyways, but there are certainly outcomes between great and bad where a good overall roster can make the difference.