Windycityendzone on Caleb Williams

[Solid84]

Facebook- Windycityendzone on Caleb Williams

 

Quote

I’ve (Daniel Kelly) now evaluated USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams in every snap he took in 2022 and 2023 and I’ve written approximately 11,850 words reflecting on him in articles.

 

The takeaway: Williams is too undisciplined, moody, and immature to ever realize his potential.

 

Yes, he is loaded with God-given raw arm strength, and elite ability to create and extend (which is the draw to him), but he’s underdeveloped in the finer points of the position. His skillset doesn’t translate well to the next level ⎯the NFL game is about quick time to throw, precise downfield ball placement, and ball security.

 

The only box he checks is ball security improving from 35 pass breakups (2.5 avg.) in 2022 to 15 in 2023 (1.25 avg.).

 

2023 went sideways
Williams won the 2022 Heisman Trophy, but it amounted to a second-round grade watching him through my ‘NFL-colored glasses.’ He tended to hold the ball too long and to lock in with receivers.

 

The first three games of 2023 (San Jose State, Nevada, and Stanford) gave me optimism he had improved, but then ASU happened. He was excellent against Colorado but mediocre against the University of Arizona.

 

And then things went off the rails.

 

The true litmus test would be against ranked competition.

 

What happened?

 

USC faced Notre Dame, Utah, CAL, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA and dropped five out of six and Williams’ became unglued.

 

Concerns
1. Downward trajectory ⎯Williams regressed in 2023.

 

2. NFL Expectations ⎯will be crazy high. The expectations alone will cause him to be a bust.

 

3. Time to throw ⎯Pro Football Focus recorded Williams at 3.44 seconds in 2022 and 3.21 seconds in 2023. Williams was sacked 63 times (2022-2023). Only seven NFL QBs are over 3 seconds (NEXT GEN STATS). Bears’ QB Justin Fields was the slowest (3.23 seconds). Fields was sacked 99 times (2022-2023).

 

4. Glorifed system QB ⎯I did an independent study this season, Williams’ best completion percentages came throwing 44-62% short passes. His three worst games (55.9%-57.5%) were fewer short passes.

 

5. Not a big game QB ⎯Williams was 2-9 against ranked teams the past two seasons.

 

6. Fumbles ⎯ 32 fumbles in 36 games.

 

7. Post-game conduct ⎯refused to shake hands with Utah and refused to talk to reporters after the UCLA loss.

 

8. Nature ⎯Wants to get out of structure as a passer and get reckless as a runner (increased injury risk). He reverts to locking in with receivers. Additionally, he talked down about a fan calling him a “sheep,” and he does unpredictable and uncensored things ranging from painting obscenities on his fingernails to jumping into the stands and crying in his mother’s arms.

 

9. Inexperienced dealing with adversity ⎯According to Sports Illustrated (Nov. 28, 2023) Williams said, “I’ve never been in this situation, where I’m 7–5 and there are no playoff hopes at the end of the season. I’m dealing with it emotionally, dealing with it spiritually and physically. ”

 

10. Holiday Bowl ⎯USC bounced right back (same offensive line and defense) against No. 15 Louisville with QB Miller Moss who was making his first career start and he matched Williams’ USC high of six touchdown passes in a game. 💥

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I haven’t watched anything on Williams, but this is by far the harshest take on him I’ve read. I don’t know who the guy is and if his opinion is credible. 
 

Has anyone watched tape on him? Is there something too it?

[chad72]

32 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Facebook- Windycityendzone on Caleb Williams

 

I haven’t watched anything on Williams, but this is by far the harshest take on him I’ve read. I don’t know who the guy is and if his opinion is credible. 
 

Has anyone watched tape on him? Is there something too it?

 

 

This guy, who has 96K subscribers, has a good video on his traits and weaknesses too, plus why he is gaining unnecessary hate. Again, good coaching is the key to maximizing Caleb Williams. He can throw from several arm angles and has more touch and accuracy than someone like AR. Even Mahomes was compared to Jay Cutler on his nfl.com profile and look where he is, coaching is everything. 

 

His velocity is seriously good but if your OL messes it up for him, no QB can succeed. 

 

 

Right now, he trusts his OL too much, I feel, and that will change at the NFL level where they will tell him to do 1-2-3-throw.

 

Like this guy says, he doesn't need to be a generational prospect, he just needs to be a very good prospect and the best one in this draft, which I think he is.

[Defjamz26]

27 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Facebook- Windycityendzone on Caleb Williams

 

I haven’t watched anything on Williams, but this is by far the harshest take on him I’ve read. I don’t know who the guy is and if his opinion is credible. 
 

Has anyone watched tape on him? Is there something too it?

All the character stuff is true. The game where he was crying in his mother’s arm, he also was interviewed after it and he said that all he wanted to do was go home and cuddle with his dogs and watch some shows.

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2023/11/caleb-williams-usc-dogs-cuddle-relatable#

 

The on field stuff is also kind of accurate. The thing is that he’s almost only great playing off script. He can’t play on script and he won’t be able to get away with some of the stuff he does at USC because the pass rush will get to him. You watch the Washington game and he’s got edge rushers slipping off of him while he scrambles and then he’s throwing a dot into the corner of the end zone. To me he has a lot of questions marks. I really think he needs to go to Denver with Sean Payton who will take him to task and make him play pro football.

[chad72]

11 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

All the character stuff is true. The game where he was crying in his mother’s arm, he also was interviewed after it and he said that all he wanted to do was go home and cuddle with his dogs and watch some shows.

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2023/11/caleb-williams-usc-dogs-cuddle-relatable#

 

The on field stuff is also kind of accurate. The thing is that he’s almost only great playing off script. He can’t play on script and he won’t be able to get away with some of the stuff he does at USC because the pass rush will get to him. You watch the Washington game and he’s got edge rushers slipping off of him while he scrambles and then he’s throwing a dot into the corner of the end zone. To me he has a lot of questions marks. I really think he needs to go to Denver with Sean Payton who will take him to task and make him play pro football.

 

I think it is overblown like Stroud's S2 test (or whatever that was) and Mahomes was playing off script a lot too and then learned to be a better QB without Tyreek Hill. Coaching is truly the key. 

 

Watch the video above, it is a good one, I felt. Initially, the NFL will play you shallow to deep vs rookies but once the rookie makes them pay like Mahomes, it will play deep to shallow and that will be the process he will have to be coached on w.r.t levels.

[John Hammonds]

9 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

I think it is overblown like Stroud's S2 test (or whatever that was) and Mahomes was playing off script a lot too and then learned to be a better QB without Tyreek Hill. Coaching is truly the key. 

 

Watch the video above, it is a good one, I felt. Initially, the NFL will play you shallow to deep vs rookies but once the rookie makes them pay like Mahomes, it will play deep to shallow and that will be the process he will have to be coached on w.r.t levels.

I had my doubts about Caleb Williams without the "character issues".  Yes, I agree that he's a good quarterback.  But a top-5 quarterback would have done better than lead his team to a meh 8-5 record, with a 5-4 against the PAC 10.  Would have done better than lose every single game against a ranked opponent.  A top-5 quarterback lifts his team.  If this is "lifting his team", then his team must be truly terrible.  Except, his team beat a ranked opponent in a bowl game without his involvement.

 

I don't need character issues to tell me to steer clear.  At least, steer clear until the bottom third of the first round.

[AwesomeAustin]

1 hour ago, John Hammonds said:

I had my doubts about Caleb Williams without the "character issues".  Yes, I agree that he's a good quarterback.  But a top-5 quarterback would have done better than lead his team to a meh 8-5 record, with a 5-4 against the PAC 10.  Would have done better than lose every single game against a ranked opponent.  A top-5 quarterback lifts his team.  If this is "lifting his team", then his team must be truly terrible.  Except, his team beat a ranked opponent in a bowl game without his involvement.

 

I don't need character issues to tell me to steer clear.  At least, steer clear until the bottom third of the first round.

Mahomes was 13-19 at Texas Tech and Anthony Richardson was 6-7.  It’s common enough top QB prospects aren’t on double digit win teams in college I don’t judge too much with it. 

[Superman]

The "character" stuff is going to be a problem for some people. I personally think it's overblown; people love to knock good QB prospects. But it's something that any team will want to dig in on, for sure. If he's an entitled brat who can't handle adversity, then it's a problem. It's probably best for people who can actually talk to and interact with him to make the call on this, not Internet people who dislike that he hugged his mom after a loss. No doubt there's a lot of personality here, and if real scouts and decision makers get the wrong vibe from him, they'll have to trust their instincts.

 

@chad72 I think it's different than the S2 stuff with CJ Stroud. I believe those scores were misreported, and Internet people ran with it. I think NFL teams that actually use S2 scores have a better understanding of what his scores were, and put them in the proper context. And that's why I think Chris Ballard was so vocal about people tearing down players on the basis of incomplete/inaccurate information. I doubt that affected any team's real evaluation of Stroud. I think the Williams stuff is going to be viewed differently.

 

There's no question about his physical ability. All the tools are there, and if we were only talking about his physical ability, it's a slam dunk. He's one of the most impressive QB prospects of all time. Not ideal size, but there's no question in my mind that he can physically handle playing QB in the NFL. (We'll see how he measures, but he's probably slightly shorter than Patrick Mahomes, probably has bigger hands, and if he runs/jumps, I think his athletic testing would be more impressive.)

 

The pure football question is about whether he can play within the structure of an NFL offense, while still being capable of creating big plays off structure when the situation calls for it. Is he able to make big plays when the opportunity is there, while still being effective, efficient, reliable, dependable for the rest of the game? Is he addicted to breaking the pocket, even when it's not called for? Can he take the easy the completion and keep the offense moving, or will he hold onto the ball waiting for the chance at a big play downfield? Will he take the checkdown on third and 12, or will he get sacked trying to create, and knock the team out of field goal range?

 

I have recently watched some of his Oklahoma games in 2021, when he was a true freshman filling in and eventually taking over for Spencer Rattler. He was still dynamic and productive, but also more systematic and less prone to improvise. Makes sense for a younger player. His success in 2022 was a good indication of what his game looks like when he's properly balancing his desire to make plays with his responsibility to run the offense. (Look closely at the losses against Utah (x2) and Tulane. The defense refused to get a stop.) And it's my opinion that he relied on playmaking too much in trying to overcome negative situations in 2023, especially against good defenses. 

 

It's true that the 2023 USC OL was terrible, but it's also true that Williams held the ball too long and scrambled too recklessly. It's true that their defense couldn't stop good teams, but it's also true that he took too many chances with the ball and turned it over too often. 

 

Put him in the wrong situation, and just from a football standpoint, it might not go well. I have my doubts about the Bears being the right situation for any young QB, especially since Eberflus is probably on the hot seat. I don't know enough about their OC to have an opinion on whether he can create a good environment for a rookie QB, not to mention one who is both as dynamic and combustible as Caleb Williams can be. Put him in the right situation, and I think the sky's the limit.

[chad72]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

Put him in the wrong situation, and just from a football standpoint, it might not go well. I have my doubts about the Bears being the right situation for any young QB, especially since Eberflus is probably on the hot seat. I don't know enough about their OC to have an opinion on whether he can create a good environment for a rookie QB, not to mention one who is both as dynamic and combustible as Caleb Williams can be. Put him in the right situation, and I think the sky's the limit.

 

Yes, that is exactly the thing he and his camp are afraid of. The Bears better have a GREAT plan in place to accentuate his strengths and get his bad habits out of him. Mahomes should actually be thanking his lucky stars The Chiefs chose to trade up for him, to end up in a great situation instead of The Bears choosing him over Trubisky after bringing Mahomes in for a team visit.

[stitches]

16 minutes ago, Superman said:

Put him in the wrong situation, and just from a football standpoint, it might not go well. I have my doubts about the Bears being the right situation for any young QB, especially since Eberflus is probably on the hot seat. I don't know enough about their OC to have an opinion on whether he can create a good environment for a rookie QB, not to mention one who is both as dynamic and combustible as Caleb Williams can be. Put him in the right situation, and I think the sky's the limit.

Did you hear what JSN said about Waldron? It's kind of hilarious... 

 

 

 

[Solid84]

11 minutes ago, stitches said:

Did you hear what JSN said about Waldron? It's kind of hilarious... 

 

 

 

Oof...

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, stitches said:

Did you hear what JSN said about Waldron? It's kind of hilarious... 

 

 

 

 

Yeah I saw that. Not exactly a ringing endorsement... I don't know how much I care about JSN's opinion, but that's definitely an interesting response.

 

I also think there's some missing subtext there. There's a possibility that JSN has inside information about the Bears' plan at QB, or what Fields thinks, or even what Waldron thinks. 

[Superman]

23 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Yes, that is exactly the thing he and his camp are afraid of. The Bears better have a GREAT plan in place to accentuate his strengths and get his bad habits out of him. Mahomes should actually be thanking his lucky stars The Chiefs chose to trade up for him, to end up in a great situation instead of The Bears choosing him over Trubisky after bringing Mahomes in for a team visit.

 

Yeah, even though I think Mahomes has transcendent talent and would still be good, he could be having a similar experience to Justin Herbert if he wound up in a different situation.