Gene Frenette: AFC South script flipped, Colts now where Jaguars used to be

[FalseStart]

Only four years ago, the AFC South landscape was essentially flipped upside down. A Super Bowl-contending window had been open for the Indianapolis Colts, buoyed by the 2012 drafting of quarterback Andrew Luck. The Jaguars were bottom-feeders, one year into a massive rebuild under new head coach (Gus Bradley) and general manager (Dave Caldwell).

Now the division rivals have traded places. It’s the Jaguars, one play away against the New England Patriots from advancing to the Super Bowl last season, who appear to have a roster built to contend for at least another two years, maybe longer.

The Colts, like the Jaguars of 2013-15, are bereft of talent at so many positions, it’ll take the shoulder-impaired Luck shaking off a ton of rust and Indianapolis hitting the mother lode in this week’s NFL draft to seemingly have any shot at a respectable season.

Luck hasn’t thrown a pass with any velocity since engineering a 24-20 comeback win over the Jaguars on the final drive to end the 2016 season. Even if he returns to form, which is a big if, that still may not be enough to save the roster-challenged Colts.

Remember how the Jaguars’ defense was an abomination before the acquisitions of Malik Jackson, Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, Yannick Ngakoue, Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye the past two years? Indianapolis has been a similar pushover for quite a while, and without Luck to bail them out last season, the Colts evolved into being almost as bad as Jacksonville during the Bradley years.

With Chris Ballard in his second year as GM, and the hiring of ex-Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich to replace head coach Chuck Pagano, the Colts enter 2018 with some optimism. But the reality is, as it was for the Jaguars during their downturn, the roster has too many holes to plug to expect an immediate turnaround.

Caldwell couldn’t fix his roster after three full drafts and free agency periods. Though Ballard has a prime opportunity this week with five of the top 67 picks in the draft, what are the odds that he pulls off what the Jaguars did in 2016 when Ramsey, Jack and Ngakoue fell to them with the first three picks?

One of the big reasons the Colts have serious personnel issues at offensive line, linebacker, wide receiver (outside T.Y. Hilton), running back and no standout pass-rusher is their 2013 and ’14 draft classes are all gone except guard Jack Mewhort. Their top two picks in the ’15 draft are also history, with first-round receiver Phillip Dorsett traded to the New England Patriots for quarterback Jacoby Brissett and cornerback D’Joun Smith already out of the league.

Not many NFL teams outside the Patriots can survive, let alone flourish, by getting little or nothing out of essentially two-and-a-half draft classes. Indianapolis not only has to hit the reset button in a big way, there’s no assurance Luck will again be the elite quarterback he was before his shoulder injury. If that doesn’t happen, it makes the Colts’ rebuild every bit as daunting as the Jaguars’ task when they began their overhaul. 

Indianapolis, which is making the long overdue switch from a 3-4 defensive scheme to a 4-3, has some decent parts along the defensive line. But there’s nobody like a J.J. Watt, Campbell or Ngakoue who makes it a nightmare for offensive coordinators in game-planning.

Here’s why Luck can be a game-changer: the Colts lost seven of nine games last season in which they led at halftime, but were 32-4 in those situations with Luck under center from 2012-16. But Indianapolis also had better offensive personnel around Luck then, and the AFC South, especially the Jaguars, was pretty easy pickings. No more.

Even if Luck plays at a reasonably high level in 2018, the Colts – adjusting to a new coaching staff and new system -- still look very much like a team that’s two or three years away from being a playoff contender.

A team that once rode a 16-game AFC South winning streak, which the Jaguars broke in a 51-16 rout at EverBank Field in 2015 with Luck out of the lineup, might be looking at a long uphill climb back to relevancy.

The Jaguars know all too well about that predicament. The Colts are going to need a lot more than Luck to pull themselves out of a similar mess.

 

http://www.jacksonville.com/sports/20180423/gene-frenette-afc-south-script-flipped-colts-now-where-jaguars-used-to-be

 

[ColtsBlitz]

Crazy how quickly everything can change isn’t it?

 

Once Luck is back on the field though, we will see competitive games and hopefully some impressive 1st and 2nd year players step up

[Fisticuffs111]

Tough to read but he's right on. I'm confident in Ballard though, as well as Reich and the rest of our staff, and think they can turn things around. No doubt we need Luck to make it a smoother turnaround though. This has gotta be a very good class though, and I don't blame anybody for having high expectations for it.

It's annoying to say/hear but the Jags have done a really good job building their team, and I don't see that changing now with Tom Coughlin helping out. And they won't be as cap strapped as it seems because they have a lot of front loaded contracts and can cut those high priced players as need be.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, ColtsBlitz said:

Crazy how quickly everything can change isn’t it?

 

Once Luck is back on the field though, we will see competitive games and hopefully some impressive 1st and 2nd year players step up

 

Not sure how "quick" the turn around has been?

 

Seems it's been three years...   2015, 16 and 17.

 

Everybody else was making good moves while Grigson was mostly blowing the draft and free agency...

 

Meanwhile Ballard inherits a mess,  Luck goes down, making things even worse...

 

And now we're left trying to fix things....

 

That's why Ballard has talked about a 3-year rebuild...

 

 

[Boiler_Colt]

He's not wrong in any way but boy does 1 good season in darn near the last 2 decades go straight to a fan base's heads. If Ballard does things the right way, it is still easier to rebuild a team that already has a franchise quarterback than one that does not.

[WoolMagnet]

Never trust or believe  the French !

[dgambill]

To me Jacksonville and Indy are building things two very different ways. Jacksonville is bringing in high priced mercenaries like Norwell, Campbell, Bouye, Jackson, Moncrief, and several others. Yes they got very fortunate to have Jack fall to them who was considered top 10 talent except for his medical. We don't have a lot of money wrapped up in expensive veterans....we are going young and exclusively the draft. Perhaps in 3 or 4 years we will be ready to add a couple big name free agents but hopefully we will be using that money to re-sign our own great talent. Not sure Jacksonville's win now mode will end in a SB without the biggest piece a qb...but they will have some major decisions to make down the road as a result of the free agency splurge.

[TdungyW/12]

18 hours ago, FalseStart said:

Only four years ago, the AFC South landscape was essentially flipped upside down. A Super Bowl-contending window had been open for the Indianapolis Colts, buoyed by the 2012 drafting of quarterback Andrew Luck. The Jaguars were bottom-feeders, one year into a massive rebuild under new head coach (Gus Bradley) and general manager (Dave Caldwell).

Now the division rivals have traded places. It’s the Jaguars, one play away against the New England Patriots from advancing to the Super Bowl last season, who appear to have a roster built to contend for at least another two years, maybe longer.

The Colts, like the Jaguars of 2013-15, are bereft of talent at so many positions, it’ll take the shoulder-impaired Luck shaking off a ton of rust and Indianapolis hitting the mother lode in this week’s NFL draft to seemingly have any shot at a respectable season.

Luck hasn’t thrown a pass with any velocity since engineering a 24-20 comeback win over the Jaguars on the final drive to end the 2016 season. Even if he returns to form, which is a big if, that still may not be enough to save the roster-challenged Colts.

Remember how the Jaguars’ defense was an abomination before the acquisitions of Malik Jackson, Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, Yannick Ngakoue, Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye the past two years? Indianapolis has been a similar pushover for quite a while, and without Luck to bail them out last season, the Colts evolved into being almost as bad as Jacksonville during the Bradley years.

With Chris Ballard in his second year as GM, and the hiring of ex-Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich to replace head coach Chuck Pagano, the Colts enter 2018 with some optimism. But the reality is, as it was for the Jaguars during their downturn, the roster has too many holes to plug to expect an immediate turnaround.

Caldwell couldn’t fix his roster after three full drafts and free agency periods. Though Ballard has a prime opportunity this week with five of the top 67 picks in the draft, what are the odds that he pulls off what the Jaguars did in 2016 when Ramsey, Jack and Ngakoue fell to them with the first three picks?

One of the big reasons the Colts have serious personnel issues at offensive line, linebacker, wide receiver (outside T.Y. Hilton), running back and no standout pass-rusher is their 2013 and ’14 draft classes are all gone except guard Jack Mewhort. Their top two picks in the ’15 draft are also history, with first-round receiver Phillip Dorsett traded to the New England Patriots for quarterback Jacoby Brissett and cornerback D’Joun Smith already out of the league.

Not many NFL teams outside the Patriots can survive, let alone flourish, by getting little or nothing out of essentially two-and-a-half draft classes. Indianapolis not only has to hit the reset button in a big way, there’s no assurance Luck will again be the elite quarterback he was before his shoulder injury. If that doesn’t happen, it makes the Colts’ rebuild every bit as daunting as the Jaguars’ task when they began their overhaul. 

Indianapolis, which is making the long overdue switch from a 3-4 defensive scheme to a 4-3, has some decent parts along the defensive line. But there’s nobody like a J.J. Watt, Campbell or Ngakoue who makes it a nightmare for offensive coordinators in game-planning.

Here’s why Luck can be a game-changer: the Colts lost seven of nine games last season in which they led at halftime, but were 32-4 in those situations with Luck under center from 2012-16. But Indianapolis also had better offensive personnel around Luck then, and the AFC South, especially the Jaguars, was pretty easy pickings. No more.

Even if Luck plays at a reasonably high level in 2018, the Colts – adjusting to a new coaching staff and new system -- still look very much like a team that’s two or three years away from being a playoff contender.

A team that once rode a 16-game AFC South winning streak, which the Jaguars broke in a 51-16 rout at EverBank Field in 2015 with Luck out of the lineup, might be looking at a long uphill climb back to relevancy.

The Jaguars know all too well about that predicament. The Colts are going to need a lot more than Luck to pull themselves out of a similar mess.

 

http://www.jacksonville.com/sports/20180423/gene-frenette-afc-south-script-flipped-colts-now-where-jaguars-used-to-be

 

Once Luck gets back on the field that changes everything drastically .... then we draft a couple game changers, bortles regresses and eventually jags will have to trade/let go their madden team because they added so many pieces to cover bortles suckage ..... Indy will be back on top of not this year it will next year. 

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, dgambill said:

To me Jacksonville and Indy are building things two very different ways. Jacksonville is bringing in high priced mercenaries like Norwell, Campbell, Bouye, Jackson, Moncrief, and several others. Yes they got very fortunate to have Jack fall to them who was considered top 10 talent except for his medical. We don't have a lot of money wrapped up in expensive veterans....we are going young and exclusively the draft. Perhaps in 3 or 4 years we will be ready to add a couple big name free agents but hopefully we will be using that money to re-sign our own great talent. Not sure Jacksonville's win now mode will end in a SB without the biggest piece a qb...but they will have some major decisions to make down the road as a result of the free agency splurge.

 

It's not really that different...assuming Ballard does actually go out and get a impact FAs when the time is right (like he has said). That is basically what JAC did. They waited years while they stacked drafts with early picks and then hit FA when tha foundation was in place. From 2013-2015, they still had the most cap space available at the beginning of the season...and in 2016 they still had the third most available. 

 

Now JAC has signed a lot of FAs. But they actually had to do that because they had so much cap space available. I could Ballard finding himself in a similar situation as well, especially if he plans on rolling over $40-60M in cap space. And I would hope that he would have no problem bringing in a Bouye or a Campbell, even if they cost a bit more than he was willing to pay.

 

 

[dgambill]

2 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

It's not really that different...assuming Ballard does actually go out and get a impact FAs when the time is right (like he has said). That is basically what JAC did. They waited years while they stacked drafts with early picks and then hit FA when tha foundation was in place. From 2013-2015, they still had the most cap space available at the beginning of the season...and in 2016 they still had the third most available. 

 

Now JAC has signed a lot of FAs. But they actually had to do that because they had so much cap space available. I could Ballard finding himself in a similar situation as well, especially if he plans on rolling over $40-60M in cap space. And I would hope that he would have no problem bringing in a Bouye or a Campbell, even if they cost a bit more than he was willing to pay.

 

 

Good point....but Jacksonville is still missing the key piece to the puzzle....and instead of investing money or trading or drafting another qb they are sticking with Bortles....I'm afraid that plan won't pay the ultimate dividend in the end. Sure he may get hot for a stretch like Joe Flacco and you catch lightning in a bottle but I don't think they can sustain themselves at the top with their approach.

[Andrew Luck fan club]

The Jags had like five consecutive top 5 picks. We’re getting our first one this season after six years, and it’s becausse our QB missed the year.  Let’s calm down lol.