My Numbers Say We Are In Really Good Cap Shape For 2012

[UndecidedFrog]

Cap hits. That's what I'm saying. Find a way to structure that kind of deal with those resulting cap hits, or something similar.

Well, that is precisely the problem, isn't it?

How do you find "a way" to structure deals that fit under the cap, that the player (and his agent) will find acceptable.

That was the purpose of this micro exercise, to show just how difficult it is to do this, especially with hanging tails (existing pro-rated unamortized cap balances).

That is why I wanted you to put pencil to paper and come up with these deal structures, instead of the nebulous hand wave that assumes all will work out.

It is not up to me to find ways to do this. If I did, it would be my mock cap, and not yours.

[UndecidedFrog]

I didn't say a $20 million signing bonus. I said $20 million guaranteed. A lot of people use them interchangeably, but they're different. For instance, Kevin Kolb signed a contract with $21 million guaranteed, but a $10 million signing bonus.

FYI, Kolb's current contract with the Cardinals:

5 year deal

Signing Bonus: $10MM paid in 2011

Miscl. Bonus: $7MM to be paid in 2012

Miscl. Bonus: $2MM to be paid in 2013

Salary: $2,1,9,10,10

The signing bonus is pro-rated over 5 years.

The first miscl. bonus is an option bonus that is structured as a roster bonus, all $7MM will hit the 2012 cap.

The second miscl. bonus is similar to the first, and all $2MM will hit the 2013 cap,

The Cardinals can cut Kolb now, and not be obligated to pay either miscl. bonuses. So, in effect, only the signing bonus of $10MM, and his first year salary of $2MM was guaranteed.

http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/KentSomers/155056

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals/kevin-kolb/

We can take the $5 million bonus money on Freeney's contract for 2012 and roll that into his $20 million guaranteed on an extension. Bonus for 2012 is $5 million, plus a base salary of $6 million = a cap hit for 2012 of $11 million. Am I missing something? Are we not able to take his existing bonus due of $5 million and make that a part of the $20 million guaranteed for his extension?

You cannot take the $5MM cap hit from the previous bonus money already paid to Freeney back in 2007, and roll it into anything. The cap hit in 2012 is a result of the accounting ability to spread that bonus money across the contract years. You are not allowed to take an accounting of unamortized prorations and treat it as real money when negotiating with a player.

[Superman]

That 5 million is already been paid, It can't be treated as new money.

It's there

2012

5 million existing bonus dollars

+ x new bonus dollars

+ x base salary.

= 2012 cap hit.

Well, that is precisely the problem, isn't it?

How do you find "a way" to structure deals that fit under the cap, that the player (and his agent) will find acceptable.

That was the purpose of this micro exercise, to show just how difficult it is to do this, especially with hanging tails (existing pro-rated unamortized cap balances).

That is why I wanted you to put pencil to paper and come up with these deal structures, instead of the nebulous hand wave that assumes all will work out.

It is not up to me to find ways to do this. If I did, it would be my mock cap, and not yours.

You cannot take the $5MM cap hit from the previous bonus money already paid to Freeney back in 2007, and roll it into anything. The cap hit in 2012 is a result of the accounting ability to spread that bonus money across the contract years. You are not allowed to take an accounting of unamortized prorations and treat it as real money when negotiating with a player.

My $20 million figure was including the $5 million for 2012 (which is bonus money, but already paid). Based on how you and FJC are explaining this, that can't be done. No problem. So then the guaranteed money would be more like $15 million over four years, with a slightly bigger hit in 2012 and 2013 than I expected.

So take $55 million over four years, with $15 million guaranteed. 2012 cap hit would be $5 million tail + $3.75 million bonus + base salary of $3.75 million = cap hit of $12.5 million. Does that work? If so, increase his base salary in 2013 to $10.75 million + $3.75 million bonus = $14.5 million cap hit. In 2014, a base salary of $12.5 million + $3.75 million bonus = $16.75 million cap hit. Final year is 2015, with a remaining base salary of $13 million + $3.75 million bonus = cap hit of $16.75 million. Try to work in a team option for 2014. Freeney still gets his money he'd make in 2012, plus assurances of more in 2013. And if we were to opt out in 2014, he'd wouldn't be so old that he couldn't get a new contract somewhere else.

And I'm also assuming that this is the kind of contract he'd be offered if we were to cut him or allow his agent to talk to potential trade suitors. He may prefer to be traded and have another team do this extension for him, since he would prefer not to be on a team that looks to be transitioning to a different defensive scheme. That would work out more to our favor in terms of the cap, and make it easier to retain Robert Mathis, who I personally feel is better suited for any transition we might make.

As to Kolb's contract, I was only pointing out that signing bonus and guaranteed money aren't the same thing, even though some people treat them like they are. As it pertains to an extension for Freeney, I'd assume the signing bonus would have to offset him agreeing not to be paid his base salary of $14 million in 2012.

I don't think I'm just waving my hand and saying "it will be alright." I'm just saying that there are ways of structuring an extension for Freeney that would lower his 2012 cap hit and be worth it for him.

[UndecidedFrog]

As to Kolb's contract, I was only pointing out that signing bonus and guaranteed money aren't the same thing, even though some people treat them like they are. As it pertains to an extension for Freeney, I'd assume the signing bonus would have to offset him agreeing not to be paid his base salary of $14 million in 2012.

If you read the articles I cited regarding Kolb's contract, you will see that his contract does NOT have $21MM guaranteed. The only thing guaranteed about Kolb's contract is is signing bonus (and his first year salary). The roster bonuses are not guaranteed.

[John Dee]

Here are some facts to consider:

The current franchise tag for DEs is $10.6MM

Here is Freeney's existing contract:

6 year term

Signing bonus paid in 2007 of $15

Miscl. bonus paid in 2008 of $12.5

Salaries: 0.75; 0.75; 6.22; 8.825; 11.42; 14.035

Average per year income to Freeeney = $11.58MM

I don't see that his income is out of line. What provides the perception is the strange way his contract was back-loaded.

The way I understand it is his cap his THIS next season is 19m. The average of his contract over the 6 years being "out of line" is debateable. If you simply want sacks and a few forced fumbles then he is your man.

But, he is non existant against the run... how many times have we Colt fans watched BOTH of our ends zoom right up field and the RB blow right by them off tackle? In my mind a DE that is getting paid the big bucks should do it all. But thats just me.

If Indy keeps him they have to get that # down. IMO

[UndecidedFrog]

So take $55 million over four years, with $15 million guaranteed. 2012 cap hit would be $5 million tail + $3.75 million bonus + base salary of $3.75 million = cap hit of $12.5 million. Does that work? If so, increase his base salary in 2013 to $10.75 million + $3.75 million bonus = $14.5 million cap hit. In 2014, a base salary of $12.5 million + $3.75 million bonus = $16.75 million cap hit. Final year is 2015, with a remaining base salary of $13 million + $3.75 million bonus = cap hit of $16.75 million. Try to work in a team option for 2014. Freeney still gets his money he'd make in 2012, plus assurances of more in 2013. And if we were to opt out in 2014, he'd wouldn't be so old that he couldn't get a new contract somewhere else.

So you are asking Freeney to forego his 2012 salary of $14.035 and except this:

4 year deal

$15MM signing bonus paid in 2012

And salaries of: $3.75; 10.75; 12.5; 13

Which will provide him the following income stream in real dollars:

2012: $18.75

2013: $10.75

2014: $12.5

2015: $13

IMO, this may be found acceptable. Although I have a suspicion that Freeney and his agent will want to move some of that 2015 salary into 2013 and 2014 to the tune of

2013: $12.08

2014: $12.08

2015: $12.08

to avoid the same situation he finds himself in now with a large balloon in his last year.

So, to update Freeney's renegotiated extension, these will be his new cap hits:

2012: $5 tail from previous contract + $3.75 prorated piece of the new signing bonus ($15/4) + $3.75 salary = $12.5

2013: $3.75 prorated piece of the new signing bonus ($15/4) + $12.08 salary = $15.83

2014: $3.75 prorated piece of the new signing bonus ($15/4) + $12.08 salary = $15.83

2015: $3.75 prorated piece of the new signing bonus ($15/4) + $12.08 salary = $15.83

So, with signing Garcon per Lance Moore contract, which I think is iffy, given what Garcon's NBA will be with other teams, and

with signing Tamme per Kevin Boss contract, which I think is also iffy, given what Tamme's NBA will be with other teams, and

with the above extension of Freeney above, your mock cap is now at $103.26MM with the full 53 player complement.

And I'm also assuming that this is the kind of contract he'd be offered if we were to cut him or allow his agent to talk to potential trade suitors. He may prefer to be traded and have another team do this extension for him, since he would prefer not to be on a team that looks to be transitioning to a different defensive scheme. That would work out more to our favor in terms of the cap, and make it easier to retain Robert Mathis, who I personally feel is better suited for any transition we might make.

Yes, you can cut him and save $14.035MM to the cap. However, you would have to go shop for another DE of like quality and see if he will accept the terms of the contract you offered Freeney for his extension, unless you figure you can skip that and live with the depth at DE without replacement.

[UndecidedFrog]

The way I understand it is his cap his THIS next season is 19m. The average of his contract over the 6 years being "out of line" is debateable. If you simply want sacks and a few forced fumbles then he is your man.

But, he is non existant against the run... how many times have we Colt fans watched BOTH of our ends zoom right up field and the RB blow right by them off tackle? In my mind a DE that is getting paid the big bucks should do it all. But thats just me.

If Indy keeps him they have to get that # down. IMO

That is Superman's call. This is his mock roster, and his mock cap.

If he thinks he can get a better DE for equal or less money, that is a risk he will have to decide on.

[John Dee]

That is Superman's call. This is his mock roster, and his mock cap.

If he thinks he can get a better DE for equal or less money, that is a risk he will have to decide on.

He is getting older and he is one dimensional... After witnessing the over haul Indy is still in the process of.... I don't see a future for DF on this team...

I actually think he could have trade value to a team like the Bucs or Bills who have plenty of cap room... and who are desperately in need of an end.

[UndecidedFrog]

He is getting older and he is one dimensional... After witnessing the over haul Indy is still in the process of.... I don't see a future for DF on this team...

I actually think he could have trade value to a team like the Bucs or Bills who have plenty of cap room... and who are desperately in need of an end.

Either way, if you cut him or trade him, you will still have a remnant of $5MM cap hit because of the bonuses he received back in 2007 and 2008.

Superman will have to address that in his mock roster.

Are you interested in doing a mock cap?

[John Dee]

Either way, if you cut him or trade him, you will still have a remnant of $5MM cap hit because of the bonuses he received back in 2007 and 2008.

Superman will have to address that in his mock roster.

Are you interested in doing a mock cap?

Mock cap ... eeehhh no way.. it makes my head hurt to crunch that many #'s . hhehee

But something has to give.. can't keep Manning, DF, Mathis, Wayne, Brackett, Clark.. Of all those names I think only 3 max and possibly only 1 will be back.

I think Mathis will be resigned, Clark... from what I read there is no cap relief cutting him so I think he stays. And I think Brackett will get reworked.

[Superman]

If you read the articles I cited regarding Kolb's contract, you will see that his contract does NOT have $21MM guaranteed. The only thing guaranteed about Kolb's contract is is signing bonus (and his first year salary). The roster bonuses are not guaranteed.

The two terms are not synonymous, is all I'm saying. Right?

Edit: More accurate term is "signing bonus," for the purposes of this discussion. That's what I'll use going forward.

[John Dee]

That would be correct... Nothing wrong with a pop quiz

hehe...

and Frog.. where are you all getting teams salary structure? a poster BAV use to have a site with this info but i don't see him around any longer...

[UndecidedFrog]

The two terms are not synonymous, is all I'm saying. Right?

In the case of Kolb's current contract, the two terms are synonymous.

[UndecidedFrog]

hehe...

and Frog.. where are you all getting teams salary structure? a poster BAV use to have a site with this info but i don't see him around any longer...

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/dwight-freeney/

[Superman]

So you are asking Freeney to forego his 2012 salary of $14.035 and except this:

4 year deal

$15MM signing bonus paid in 2012

And salaries of: $3.75; 10.75; 12.5; 13

Which will provide him the following income stream in real dollars:

2012: $18.75

2013: $10.75

2014: $12.5

2015: $13

IMO, this may be found acceptable. Although I have a suspicion that Freeney and his agent will want to move some of that 2015 salary into 2013 and 2014 to the tune of

2013: $12.08

2014: $12.08

2015: $12.08

to avoid the same situation he finds himself in now with a large balloon in his last year.

So, to update Freeney's renegotiated extension, these will be his new cap hits:

2012: $5 tail from previous contract + $3.75 prorated piece of the new signing bonus ($15/4) + $3.75 salary = $12.5

2013: $3.75 prorated piece of the new signing bonus ($15/4) + $12.08 salary = $15.83

2014: $3.75 prorated piece of the new signing bonus ($15/4) + $12.08 salary = $15.83

2015: $3.75 prorated piece of the new signing bonus ($15/4) + $12.08 salary = $15.83

That rebalancing would be a point of negotiation, but giving him his $18.75 million in 2012 (just a quarter of a million less than he's set to make on his current contract) is partially to get him to accept an increasing salary moving forward. Either way, it would be my objective to allow him a ballooning cap hit as the cap goes up in 2014 and 2015.

And now that we're more in line with the objective -- lowering his cap hit -- we can see that we have two or three viable options with Freeney. Extend him, cut him, or trade him (probably the least likely, though if another team would offer him a contract like the one we're talking about, we might be able to get a couple of picks for him (2nd this year, 3rd next year).

So, with signing Garcon per Lance Moore contract, which I think is iffy, given what Garcon's NBA will be with other teams, and

with signing Tamme per Kevin Boss contract, which I think is also iffy, given what Tamme's NBA will be with other teams, and

with the above extension of Freeney above, your mock cap is now at $103.26MM with the full 53 player complement.

Let's make sure I'm clear here: I'm not suggesting we pay Garcon or Tamme what Moore or Boss were paid. I'm simply saying we use the structure of those contracts for them. I gave you the numbers for those contracts earlier: Four years, $30 million for Garcon, $7 million signing bonus; we could structure that with a $6 million cap hit in 2012. Four years, $15 million for Tamme, $4 million signing bonus; we could structure that with a $2.5 million cap hit in 2012.

And let's not forget Mathis: five years, $60 million, $20 million signing bonus. First year would be $4 million bonus + $4.5 million base salary = $8.5 million cap hit in 2012.

(Edit: That represents $46 million in signing bonuses for those five players alone, not to mention the draft picks. Might have to make some more tough decisions there.)

That's my best case scenario with regard to the cap. And puts us at about $112 million for a full 53 man roster. In reality, we probably have to choose between Mathis and Freeney, so we can probably subtract between $7.5 (Freeney's cap hit minus the $5 million tail bonus) and $8.5 million (Mathis' cap hit). So, $105 million, somewhere around there. And with somewhere between $26-31 million in signing bonuses for those five players.

Yes, you can cut him and save $14.035MM to the cap. However, you would have to go shop for another DE of like quality and see if he will accept the terms of the contract you offered Freeney for his extension, unless you figure you can skip that and live with the depth at DE without replacement.

Cutting him (or trading him) would be under the assumption that we're either keeping Mathis or replacing him through the draft. And then we have 27 other camp invites for depth at end/outside linebacker. There's more than one way to get a pass rush (or pass rusher). I think Pagano and Manusky will be able to figure that out. We're not going to a predominantly four-man-rush defense anymore. Not saying we're going to be blitzing every down, but definitely more than we have with Freeney.

[UndecidedFrog]

That rebalancing would be a point of negotiation, but giving him his $18.75 million in 2012 (just a quarter of a million less than he's set to make on his current contract) is partially to get him to accept an increasing salary moving forward. Either way, it would be my objective to allow him a ballooning cap hit as the cap goes up in 2014 and 2015.

Apparently you still don't get it. In 2012, under his current agreement, Freeney will receive $14.035MM in real dollars. He will not see that $5MM tail, as it is the unamortized pro-rated piece of the bonuses he received back in 2007 and 2008. So the real comparison is between the stream of cashflows I presented in my previous post. Given your new structure, IMO, he will accept it subject to the leveling out of his out year salaries. I think given his to be current experience of negotiating an extension where his is to forego a ballooned salary ($14,035) in exchange for a stream of new cashflows, he and his agent will be sure to negotiate a non-ballooning salary structure in his new contract.

And now that we're more in line with the objective -- lowering his cap hit -- we can see that we have two or three viable options with Freeney. Extend him, cut him, or trade him (probably the least likely, though if another team would offer him a contract like the one we're talking about, we might be able to get a couple of picks for him (2nd this year, 3rd next year).

In your current mock cap, I have already extended Freeney with the leveled out new contract. If you want to cut him now, you would save $7.5MM to the 2012 cap, but then you would have to go shopping for another DE, or make do without, and rely on your current depth at DE on your mock roster. Let me know if you want to cut him, or trade him. If you expect to get a 2nd or 3rd pick this year, that will add some increment to the cap as well (as they will probably get more than league min).

Let's make sure I'm clear here: I'm not suggesting we pay Garcon or Tamme what Moore or Boss were paid. I'm simply saying we use the structure of those contracts for them. I gave you the numbers for those contracts earlier: Four years, $30 million for Garcon, $7 million signing bonus; we could structure that with a $6 million cap hit in 2012. Four years, $15 million for Tamme, $4 million signing bonus; we could structure that with a $2.5 million cap hit in 2012.

I am sorry, I cannot work with cap hits. I need salaries, as I have always asked for. Please provide them, otherwise I will keep Garcon at Lance Moore's contract and Tamme at Kevin Boss' contract. I need to see the salary stream to compare against

1) What they were previously making

2) What other players at their level and position make.

3) What the guaranteed money split from the non-guaranteed money makes the contract look in terms of the player's perspective with risk of injury and cut.

This is the red face test that I keep talking about. Please provide me with salary streams, and not what you expect the cap to be. This is your mock cap, not mine.

And let's not forget Mathis: five years, $60 million, $20 million signing bonus. First year would be $4 million bonus + $4.5 million base salary = $8.5 million cap hit in 2012.

That's my best case scenario with regard to the cap. And puts us at about $112 million for a full 53 man roster. In reality, we probably have to choose between Mathis and Freeney, so we can probably subtract between $7.5 (Freeney's cap hit minus the $5 million tail bonus) and $8.5 million (Mathis' cap hit). So, $105 million, somewhere around there.

I adjusted Mathis to your new assumptions, and your mock cap now is at $99.26, with a high degree of unlikelihood with Garcon and Tamme contracts.

IMO, your new Mathis and Freeney numbers will be acceptable to the players.

IMO, the current numbers for Garcon and Tamme are underestimated.

Cutting him (or trading him) would be under the assumption that we're either keeping Mathis or replacing him through the draft. And then we have 27 other camp invites for depth at end/outside linebacker. There's more than one way to get a pass rush (or pass rusher). I think Pagano and Manusky will be able to figure that out. We're not going to a predominantly four-man-rush defense anymore. Not saying we're going to be blitzing every down, but definitely more than we have with Freeney.

Currently you have both Freeney and Mathis. Your camp invites could be many. However, I am only counting the final 53m roster.

[funktacious2]

You people and your what if questions...

What if Andrew Luck wants to pursue a career in professional sand volleyball?

These are huge "if"s

[Superman]

Apparently you still don't get it. In 2012, under his current agreement, Freeney will receive $14.035MM in real dollars. He will not see that $5MM tail, as it is the unamortized pro-rated piece of the bonuses he received back in 2007 and 2008. So the real comparison is between the stream of cashflows I presented in my previous post. Given your new structure, IMO, he will accept it subject to the leveling out of his out year salaries. I think given his to be current experience of negotiating an extension where his is to forego a ballooned salary ($14,035) in exchange for a stream of new cashflows, he and his agent will be sure to negotiate a non-ballooning salary structure in his new contract.

I get that. Got it before. His real cash in 2012 is $14 million, with an extension as proposed, it could be almost $19 million. Plus three more years under contract. Done.

In your current mock cap, I have already extended Freeney with the leveled out new contract. If you want to cut him now, you would save $7.5MM to the 2012 cap, but then you would have to go shopping for another DE, or make do without, and rely on your current depth at DE on your mock roster. Let me know if you want to cut him, or trade him. If you expect to get a 2nd or 3rd pick this year, that will add some increment to the cap as well (as they will probably get more than league min).

I am sorry, I cannot work with cap hits. I need salaries, as I have always asked for. Please provide them, otherwise I will keep Garcon at Lance Moore's contract and Tamme at Kevin Boss' contract. I need to see the salary stream to compare against

1) What they were previously making

2) What other players at their level and position make.

3) What the guaranteed money split from the non-guaranteed money makes the contract look in terms of the player's perspective with risk of injury and cut.

This is the red face test that I keep talking about. Please provide me with salary streams, and not what you expect the cap to be. This is your mock cap, not mine.

I adjusted Mathis to your new assumptions, and your mock cap now is at $99.26, with a high degree of unlikelihood with Garcon and Tamme contracts.

IMO, your new Mathis and Freeney numbers will be acceptable to the players.

IMO, the current numbers for Garcon and Tamme are underestimated.

Currently you have both Freeney and Mathis. Your camp invites could be many. However, I am only counting the final 53m roster.

I appreciate all your insight, really. I understand all this stuff a lot better now. But I didn't ask you to do a mock cap. My only point was that, as we've shown, the team can make some decisions that would allow them to field a decent team and be under the cap. That's assuming we extend Freeney, opt out of Manning's contract, and cut some vets. We could still retain some of our own free agents, sign our draft picks, and maybe even grab a free agent or two.

We can spitball all day long, with mock caps and all that. You wanted to get micro, so fine. We've determined that we can do all that I originally thought we could, taking all the variables into consideration.

[UndecidedFrog]

I get that. Got it before. His real cash in 2012 is $14 million, with an extension as proposed, it could be almost $19 million. Plus three more years under contract. Done.

I appreciate all your insight, really. I understand all this stuff a lot better now. But I didn't ask you to do a mock cap. My only point was that, as we've shown, the team can make some decisions that would allow them to field a decent team and be under the cap. That's assuming we extend Freeney, opt out of Manning's contract, and cut some vets. We could still retain some of our own free agents, sign our draft picks, and maybe even grab a free agent or two.

We can spitball all day long, with mock caps and all that. You wanted to get micro, so fine. We've determined that we can do all that I originally thought we could, taking all the variables into consideration.

Yes, I wanted to get micro so that we can see if your mock roster works with the moves you anticipate to stay under the cap.

In summary, you have:

1) Allowed the following FAs to walk: Anderson, Brayton, Diem, Foster, Gonzales, Lacey, Muir, Richard, Saturday, Toudouze, Wayne and Wheeler

2) You have signed 3 FAs to new deals: Mathis, Garcon and Tamme

3) You have cut the following players from the roster: Manning, Painter, Brackett, Bullitt, Addai, and Clark

4) You have added Luck and QB3

5) You have extended Freeney

Which leaves you with 30 players under contract.

Bringing up your roster to 53, I added 23 additional players, all at league min,

so you have a total cap at $99.26MM

I think you have underestimated Tamme and Garcon contracts (given they are based on current Kevin Boss and Lance Moore contracts)

I also think that the #34 pick will require an incremental $1MM to the cap, and the #65 pick will add an incremental $0.5MM to the cap.

Leaving you with a final mock cap spend of $100.76MM.

This leaves you roughly $20MM to spend to fill the holes now on your mock roster:

WR, TE, RB, LB, DB, OL, QB2

If you think you can do all this with the remaining draft picks, and $20MM to spend in FAs, then you are home free.

[BmoreColt]

Yes, I wanted to get micro so that we can see if your mock roster works with the moves you anticipate to stay under the cap.

In summary, you have:

1) Allowed the following FAs to walk: Anderson, Brayton, Diem, Foster, Gonzales, Lacey, Muir, Richard, Saturday, Toudouze, Wayne and Wheeler

2) You have signed 3 FAs to new deals: Mathis, Garcon and Tamme

3) You have cut the following players from the roster: Manning, Painter, Brackett, Bullitt, Addai, and Clark

4) You have added Luck and QB3

5) You have extended Freeney

Which leaves you with 30 players under contract.

Bringing up your roster to 53, I added 23 additional players, all at league min,

so you have a total cap at $99.26MM

I think you have underestimated Tamme and Garcon contracts (given they are based on current Kevin Boss and Lance Moore contracts)

I also think that the #34 pick will require an incremental $1MM to the cap, and the #65 pick will add an incremental $0.5MM to the cap.

Leaving you with a final mock cap spend of $100.76MM.

This leaves you roughly $20MM to spend to fill the holes now on your mock roster:

WR, TE, RB, LB, DB, OL, QB2

If you think you can do all this with the remaining draft picks, and $20MM to spend in FAs, then you are home free.

I think Superman raises some good points, I like his numbers, I would even lower a few. But 20 million would be enough to add Manning back and two or three free agents, I.e. Aubrayo Franklin with a slight pay raise, Corry Redding and Ben Grubs.

[husker61]

a poster BAV use to have a site with this info but i don't see him around any longer...

he still posts every now and then. his site was the best team cap site i have ever seen.

[UndecidedFrog]

I think Superman raises some good points, I like his numbers, I would even lower a few. But 20 million would be enough to add Manning back and two or three free agents, I.e. Aubrayo Franklin with a slight pay raise, Corry Redding and Ben Grubs.

Yes, however his mock cap needs more help at WR.

Your mock cap had both Wayne and Garcon back.

[Superman]

Yes, I wanted to get micro so that we can see if your mock roster works with the moves you anticipate to stay under the cap.

In summary, you have:

1) Allowed the following FAs to walk: Anderson, Brayton, Diem, Foster, Gonzales, Lacey, Muir, Richard, Saturday, Toudouze, Wayne and Wheeler

2) You have signed 3 FAs to new deals: Mathis, Garcon and Tamme

3) You have cut the following players from the roster: Manning, Painter, Brackett, Bullitt, Addai, and Clark

4) You have added Luck and QB3

5) You have extended Freeney

Which leaves you with 30 players under contract.

Bringing up your roster to 53, I added 23 additional players, all at league min,

so you have a total cap at $99.26MM

I might be coming back for Wheeler, using a couple million more of that cap space. Might go get a starting safety or corner, as well.

I think you have underestimated Tamme and Garcon contracts (given they are based on current Kevin Boss and Lance Moore contracts)

The structure is based on those contracts. The money isn't. I know you want me to give you base salaries for those contracts in 2012, but all I'm saying is that we can resign those players and structure their deals with manageable cap hits in 2012. I'm not trying to make them identical to the contracts that I pointed you to for those other players. I think we can sign Garcon for four years, $30 million, $7 million signing bonus (let's say Year 1 has him with a base salary of $4.25 million and a bonus of $1.75 million = cap hit of $6 million, right?) I think we can sign Tamme for four years, $15 million, $4 million signing bonus (let's say Year 1 has him with a base salary of $1.5 million and a bonus of $1 million = cap hit of $2.5 million). Given what players similar to Tamme and Garcon have been paid in recent years, I think those values are fair.

I also think that the #34 pick will require an incremental $1MM to the cap, and the #65 pick will add an incremental $0.5MM to the cap.

Leaving you with a final mock cap spend of $100.76MM.

This leaves you roughly $20MM to spend to fill the holes now on your mock roster:

WR, TE, RB, LB, DB, OL, QB2

If you think you can do all this with the remaining draft picks, and $20MM to spend in FAs, then you are home free.

That's fine. I'm not going to mock the draft, but let's take a closer look.

• At receiver, we have Collie, White and Garcon under contract. Add a receiver in the draft and one in secondary free agency, carrying five on the final roster.
  
• Tight end, we have Tamme and Eldridge under contract. Add a tight end in the draft, and if a camp invite stands out, carry four on the final roster. Definitely three, though.
  
• Running back, we have Brown, Carter, and Darren Evans (on a future contract); I wouldn't draft another back before the 5th round, and would either look for a camp standout or a player in secondary free agency. Either way, not spending any considerable money on a third string back. Might carry four, but not if we can find a suitable fullback or two.
  
• Linebacker is more difficult; we only have two under contract for 2012 after cutting Brackett and letting Wheeler walk (though, as I said, if Wheeler is still available before camp, I'm picking him back up). If we convert Hughes to linebacker, that's another. Should be looking to draft an inside linebacker and an outside linebacker, probably around the 4th round and beyond. Perhaps pick up a mid tier guy for depth (like Sims last year; actually wouldn't mind Sims as a secondary free agent resignee). Need at least six on the 53, probably more like 7 or eight, depending on what we're doing.
  
• Defensive back, I'd be going after a starting caliber corner and safety in free agency, with no assurances that we could get one for what we'd have to spend. Definitely need one of each in the draft. I'm not against having Caldwell and Lefeged back for depth, but neither would be starters. More worried about a corner with the variables that a new defense will bring, and certainly would like to have a safety that can play in the box when necessary. I like Powers, Thomas and Rucker, probably more than most do, but would prefer to have another guy before Thomas and Rucker.
  
• Offensive line, we need an entirely new interior line. I'm assuming Jeff Saturday retires. We've already let Mike Pollak walk, though he'll probably still be available for camp. Need to draft at least one guard/center, but the other two spots will probably wind up being makeshift for now. Hope we luck out with a camp body somewhere.
  
• QB2, whoever it is, pencil him in at $2 million off the free agent scrap heap.
  

You already have my 53 man roster at just under $101 million. I think we could have a decent roster (with some holes at offensive line and defensive back) with a total payroll of under $120 million in 2012.

[UndecidedFrog]

I might be coming back for Wheeler, using a couple million more of that cap space. Might go get a starting safety or corner, as well.

OK, you will let me know when to add him in. So far in your mock cap, he walks.

The structure is based on those contracts. The money isn't. I know you want me to give you base salaries for those contracts in 2012, but all I'm saying is that we can resign those players and structure their deals with manageable cap hits in 2012. I'm not trying to make them identical to the contracts that I pointed you to for those other players. I think we can sign Garcon for four years, $30 million, $7 million signing bonus (let's say Year 1 has him with a base salary of $4.25 million and a bonus of $1.75 million = cap hit of $6 million, right?) I think we can sign Tamme for four years, $15 million, $4 million signing bonus (let's say Year 1 has him with a base salary of $1.5 million and a bonus of $1 million = cap hit of $2.5 million). Given what players similar to Tamme and Garcon have been paid in recent years, I think those values are fair.

Those values are better, although I still think you are light on both of them, Garcon more light than Tamme.

Consider your proposed contract for Garcon, which averages annual compensation at $7.5MM real dollars, and compare this against the similar statistic for a WR at his level coming into his prime years.

That's fine. I'm not going to mock the draft, but let's take a closer look.

• At receiver, we have Collie, White and Garcon under contract. Add a receiver in the draft and one in secondary free agency, carrying five on the final roster.
  
• Tight end, we have Tamme and Eldridge under contract. Add a tight end in the draft, and if a camp invite stands out, carry four on the final roster. Definitely three, though.
  
• Running back, we have Brown, Carter, and Darren Evans (on a future contract); I wouldn't draft another back before the 5th round, and would either look for a camp standout or a player in secondary free agency. Either way, not spending any considerable money on a third string back. Might carry four, but not if we can find a suitable fullback or two.
  
• Linebacker is more difficult; we only have two under contract for 2012 after cutting Brackett and letting Wheeler walk (though, as I said, if Wheeler is still available before camp, I'm picking him back up). If we convert Hughes to linebacker, that's another. Should be looking to draft an inside linebacker and an outside linebacker, probably around the 4th round and beyond. Perhaps pick up a mid tier guy for depth (like Sims last year; actually wouldn't mind Sims as a secondary free agent resignee). Need at least six on the 53, probably more like 7 or eight, depending on what we're doing.
  
• Defensive back, I'd be going after a starting caliber corner and safety in free agency, with no assurances that we could get one for what we'd have to spend. Definitely need one of each in the draft. I'm not against having Caldwell and Lefeged back for depth, but neither would be starters. More worried about a corner with the variables that a new defense will bring, and certainly would like to have a safety that can play in the box when necessary. I like Powers, Thomas and Rucker, probably more than most do, but would prefer to have another guy before Thomas and Rucker.
  
• Offensive line, we need an entirely new interior line. I'm assuming Jeff Saturday retires. We've already let Mike Pollak walk, though he'll probably still be available for camp. Need to draft at least one guard/center, but the other two spots will probably wind up being makeshift for now. Hope we luck out with a camp body somewhere.
  
• QB2, whoever it is, pencil him in at $2 million off the free agent scrap heap.
  

You already have my 53 man roster at just under $101 million. I think we could have a decent roster (with some holes at offensive line and defensive back) with a total payroll of under $120 million in 2012.

OK, with the new Tamme and Garcon numbers, your mock cap is now at $101.41MM and with the incrementals for picks #34 ($1MM) and #65 ($0.5MM), your new cap is now at $102.91MM. So you have $18.19MM to spend on FAs which you have identified above as QB2, CB and SS. On top of that you are hoping to net a WR and a TE from the campers, and you hope to use your 9 draft picks (including your compensatories) to pick up Luck, WR. TE, RB, 2LBS, CB, SS and either an OG or an OC.

I think it will be tight, but doable.

I don't think you can add PM back in this scenario.

[BmoreColt]

OK, you will let me know when to add him in. So far in your mock cap, he walks.

Those values are better, although I still think you are light on both of them, Garcon more light than Tamme.

Consider your proposed contract for Garcon, which averages annual compensation at $7.5MM real dollars, and compare this against the similar statistic for a WR at his level coming into his prime years.

OK, with the new Tamme and Garcon numbers, your mock cap is now at $101.41MM and with the incrementals for picks #34 ($1MM) and #65 ($0.5MM), your new cap is now at $102.91MM. So you have $18.19MM to spend on FAs which you have identified above as QB2, CB and SS. On top of that you are hoping to net a WR and a TE from the campers, and you hope to use your 9 draft picks (including your compensatories) to pick up Luck, WR. TE, RB, 2LBS, CB, SS and either an OG or an OC.

I think it will be tight, but doable.

I don't think you can add PM back in this scenario.

I have some new numbers for you, we need to get the crunching.

[BmoreColt]

Manning cut and reworked 1 year 5 million with an option for 2 more years would look like this if picked up, 3 year 30 million, 5, 15, 15.

Freeney extended 4 year 36 million, 4 bonus.

Mathis 5 year 40 million, 10 bonus.

Wayne 3 year 21 million, 6 bonus.

Garçon 5 year 20 million, 5 bonus.

Tamme 4 year 8 million, 4 bonus.

Clarke 3 year 10 million, 3 bonus.

Addai 3 year 6 million, 3 bonus.

Saturday 2 year 4 million, 2 bonus.

Cut Bullitt, Brackett, Moala, Mookie, Snow

Resign Wheeler, Pollak, Gonzo, Anderson veteran minimums.

[UndecidedFrog]

Manning cut and reworked 1 year 5 million with an option for 2 more years would look like this if picked up, 3 year 30 million, 5, 15, 15.

You don't need to construct a management option bonus, given that the Colts will have the ability to cut at anytime. I will structure it as a straight salary 5.15.15.

OK, you have cheaped out on several players, and I will highlight in red those contracts which I think the players will reject:

Freeney extended 4 year 36 million, 4 bonus.

consider just his past contract. This one attempts to replace his average annual compensation of $11.58 with $9. On top of that, he will be foregoing $14.035 in exchange for $12.

Mathis 5 year 40 million, 10 bonus.

Wayne 3 year 21 million, 6 bonus.

consider his past contract. This one attempts to replace his average annual compensation of $6.5 with $7. As a WR reaching his prime earning years, I think he can get a better deal elsewhere, and he will walk.

Garçon 5 year 20 million, 5 bonus.

I think he will be offered a better contract elsewhere than the one you are providing. You may want to look at WRs who were on the same level and signed last year for comparisons.

Tamme 4 year 8 million, 4 bonus.

I think he will be offered a better contract elsewhere than the one you are providing. You may want to look at TEs who were on the same level and signed last year for comparisons.

Clarke 3 year 10 million, 3 bonus

consider his existing contract. This one attempts to replace his average annual compensation of $7.5 with $3.33. On top of that, he will be foregoing his salary of $4.53 in exchange for $2.33. He will balk, and you would have to cut him.

Addai 3 year 6 million, 3 bonus.

consider his existing contract. This one attempts to replace his average annual compensation of $4.67 with $2. On top of that, he will be foregoing his salary of $2.9 in exchange for $1. He will balk, and you will have to cut him.

Saturday 2 year 4 million, 2 bonus

consider his past contract. This one attempts to replace his average annual compensation of $4.43 with $2. On top of that, he will be foregoing his salary of $2.4 in exchange for $1. He will walk.

Cut Bullitt, Brackett, Moala, Mookie, Snow

Resign Wheeler,

Pollak,

Gonzo, He will get a better deal than vet minimum, and walk.

Anderson veteran minimums. The colts gave him a 1-year at $1.3 last year. I think vet min is not enough, he will walk.

Even with all these red deals that IMO do not pass the red-face test, your cap is now $116.80 with 36 contracted players and 17 additional at league minimum.

Add to this the incrementals for pick #34 ($1) and #65 ($0.5), and your total cap is now $118.30, which leaves you about $2.8 to spend

[Ramblinwreck7]

These are huge "if"s

And you can't predict them.

[Superman]

Those values are better, although I still think you are light on both of them, Garcon more light than Tamme.

Consider your proposed contract for Garcon, which averages annual compensation at $7.5MM real dollars, and compare this against the similar statistic for a WR at his level coming into his prime years.

Some people are putting Garcon in the Miles Austin category (6 years, $54 million). He's not there, to me. I'm putting him more in the Davone Bess/Lance Moore category. Maybe a half-step ahead. Four years, $30 million is higher than I'd want to go, but I think that's fair for a player who's career highs are 947 yards, 70 catches and 6 touchdowns. He's not Top 25 in any category, but we're giving him Top 15 money for his position. And it's a four year deal; he'll be 30 when it ends, and ready to get another contract.

If you have some players in mind that have set the market higher for a player like Garcon, please share. I've looked at a lot of receivers who have done new contracts in the last three years, and I don't really see anything that would allow him to demand more than four years, $30 million.

OK, with the new Tamme and Garcon numbers, your mock cap is now at $101.41MM and with the incrementals for picks #34 ($1MM) and #65 ($0.5MM), your new cap is now at $102.91MM. So you have $18.19MM to spend on FAs which you have identified above as QB2, CB and SS. On top of that you are hoping to net a WR and a TE from the campers, and you hope to use your 9 draft picks (including your compensatories) to pick up Luck, WR. TE, RB, 2LBS, CB, SS and either an OG or an OC.

I think it will be tight, but doable.

I don't think you can add PM back in this scenario.

Yeah it's gonna be tight. This scenario is assuming we don't try to keep Manning. We'd have to choose between him and Freeney or Mathis.

[UndecidedFrog]

Some people are putting Garcon in the Miles Austin category (6 years, $54 million). He's not there, to me. I'm putting him more in the Davone Bess/Lance Moore category. Maybe a half-step ahead. Four years, $30 million is higher than I'd want to go, but I think that's fair for a player who's career highs are 947 yards, 70 catches and 6 touchdowns. He's not Top 25 in any category, but we're giving him Top 15 money for his position. And it's a four year deal; he'll be 30 when it ends, and ready to get another contract.

If you have some players in mind that have set the market higher for a player like Garcon, please share. I've looked at a lot of receivers who have done new contracts in the last three years, and I don't really see anything that would allow him to demand more than four years, $30 million.

I think what will be relevant is what the upcoming Saints FAs Colston and Meachem sign or re-sign for. I think Garcon should be the average of these 2.

[Superman]

I don't know that Meachem is relevant, because Garcon has clearly outproduced him (even last year with no quarterback, and Brees setting a passing record). And Colston's production is much higher than Garcon's.

[UndecidedFrog]

I don't know that Meachem is relevant, because Garcon has clearly outproduced him (even last year with no quarterback, and Brees setting a passing record). And Colston's production is much higher than Garcon's.

That's why I said Garcon should be the average of these 2.

[Superman]

That's why I said Garcon should be the average of these 2.

Did some more looking, and I really don't see a free agent receiver like Pierre in the last three years, with his numbers, as a second or third receiver. Not too much to compare him to, really. I've been trying to be careful not to undervalue him, but I think I even overvalued him. I think my offer is pretty generous.

[UndecidedFrog]

Did some more looking, and I really don't see a free agent receiver like Pierre in the last three years, with his numbers, as a second or third receiver. Not too much to compare him to, really. I've been trying to be careful not to undervalue him, but I think I even overvalued him. I think my offer is pretty generous.

The closest I have gotten to Garcon, is as I have already mentioned, the average of what Colston and Meachem get. We will see soon enough.

[Superman]

The closest I have gotten to Garcon, is as I have already mentioned, the average of what Colston and Meachem get. We will see soon enough.

It's also frustrating that so many receivers have been franchised the past couple of years. I don't think Vincent Jackson is an elite receiver, based on production. Obviously a significant threat for any passing game, but I'd like to see what kind of contract he'd get on the free market. He's been restricted the past two offseasons, though. Then there's his off-field stuff that might hurt his free agent value. But the Vikings offered a 2nd and a 3rd + a one year, $6 million contract to him in 2010 that the Chargers' AJ Smith turned down out of stubbornness. Jackson was asking for five years, $50 million, with $30 million guaranteed. No way.

Anyways, there's a lack of comps for Garcon, like we've said. I think his contract will be closer to Colston's than Meachem's, but I don't know. I still feel four years, $30 million is plenty generous.

[Superman]

...your new cap is now at $102.91MM. So you have $18.19MM to spend on FAs which you have identified above as QB2, CB and SS.

I'd have taken Stanford Routt for three years, $19.6 million, $4 million signing bonus. That would have fit nicely in my scenario.

If only we had let Addai walk and signed Donte Whitner instead...

[BmoreColt]

It's also frustrating that so many receivers have been franchised the past couple of years. I don't think Vincent Jackson is an elite receiver, based on production. Obviously a significant threat for any passing game, but I'd like to see what kind of contract he'd get on the free market. He's been restricted the past two offseasons, though. Then there's his off-field stuff that might hurt his free agent value. But the Vikings offered a 2nd and a 3rd + a one year, $6 million contract to him in 2010 that the Chargers' AJ Smith turned down out of stubbornness. Jackson was asking for five years, $50 million, with $30 million guaranteed. No way.

Anyways, there's a lack of comps for Garcon, like we've said. I think his contract will be closer to Colston's than Meachem's, but I don't know. I still feel four years, $30 million is plenty generous.

I had him at five million a season and I think that's just right. 4 year 20 million, 8 bonus.

[UndecidedFrog]

It's also frustrating that so many receivers have been franchised the past couple of years. I don't think Vincent Jackson is an elite receiver, based on production. Obviously a significant threat for any passing game, but I'd like to see what kind of contract he'd get on the free market. He's been restricted the past two offseasons, though. Then there's his off-field stuff that might hurt his free agent value. But the Vikings offered a 2nd and a 3rd + a one year, $6 million contract to him in 2010 that the Chargers' AJ Smith turned down out of stubbornness. Jackson was asking for five years, $50 million, with $30 million guaranteed. No way.

Anyways, there's a lack of comps for Garcon, like we've said. I think his contract will be closer to Colston's than Meachem's, but I don't know. I still feel four years, $30 million is plenty generous.

It's all supply and demand. And that is the market in which the Colts will be shopping.

Some teams are willing to pony up $11.4 to tag a mediocre to good WR.

I don't think Garcon is mediocre to good yet. Almost, but not quite there yet.

4 years at $30MM is $7.5 average annual compensation.

I think his average annual should be more like $9MM. If you think it is too rich, we can extend it 5 or 6 years. He is still youngish at 25 years old.

[BmoreColt]

It's all supply and demand. And that is the market in which the Colts will be shopping.

Some teams are willing to pony up $11.4 to tag a mediocre to good WR.

I don't think Garcon is mediocre to good yet. Almost, but not quite there yet.

4 years at $30MM is $7.5 average annual compensation.

I think his average annual should be more like $9MM. If you think it is too rich, we can extend it 5 or 6 years. He is still youngish at 25 years old.

No way! Maybe 6 years 30 million but he's not worth more, he's not a number one receiver!

[UndecidedFrog]

I'd have taken Stanford Routt for three years, $19.6 million, $4 million signing bonus. That would have fit nicely in my scenario.

If he will agree to the exact same contract that he was cut from just recently. I hear CBs are at a premium this year. That will eat into your FA spending by about $6.53, which leaves you with $12.05 to spend on a QB2 and a SS.

If only we had let Addai walk and signed Donte Whitner instead...

LOL, if we all had the benefit of hindsight....shoulda, coulda, woulda.