Colts cap work 2016

[Superman]

14 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I think McPhee is very good, and I'm sorry we didn't pursue him (either at all, or hard enough) last off-season.

 

But I don't think he's even close to top-5.    Otherwise, he wouldn't have gone to NE for what he did....

 

If my memory is working I think he signed for 2/16   something like that?    

 

That's way, WAY too small a contract for someone who you think is top-5.

 

He's very good,  but I don't think he's THAT good....

 

 

I think you're thinking of Jabaal Sheard, who went from Cleveland to NE. McPhee went to the Bears for five years, $38.75m. McPhee was pretty good at the beginning of the year, then fell off.

[The Peytonator]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I think McPhee is very good, and I'm sorry we didn't pursue him (either at all, or hard enough) last off-season.

 

But I don't think he's even close to top-5.    Otherwise, he wouldn't have gone to NE for what he did....

 

If my memory is working I think he signed for 2/16   something like that?    

 

That's way, WAY too small a contract for someone who you think is top-5.

 

He's very good,  but I don't think he's THAT good....

 

 

You're thinking of Sheard. I may be overrating McPhee slightly, but not by much. Miller, Houston, and Mack are better, but after that I'd go with McPhee. His versatility for lining up inside gives him an edge over some of the other guys.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I think you're thinking of Jabaal Sheard, who went from Cleveland to NE. McPhee went to the Bears for five years, $38.75m. McPhee was pretty good at the beginning of the year, then fell off.

 

Yup...   thanks...    appreciate that.    Brain cramp!    DOH!!

 

But McPhee going for less than $8 Mill per year still tells me that he's not viewed in NFL circles as a top-5 guy.   If he was top 5, wouldn't he have commanded far more?

 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Yup...   thanks...    appreciate that.    Brain cramp!    DOH!!

 

But McPhee going for less than $8 Mill per year still tells me that he's not viewed in NFL circles as a top-5 guy.   If he was top 5, wouldn't he have commanded far more?

 

 

Absolutely, he's not a top five guy, IMO.

[NewColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, The Peytonator said:

 

You're thinking of Sheard. I may be overrating McPhee slightly, but not by much. Miller, Houston, and Mack are better, but after that I'd go with McPhee. His versatility for lining up inside gives him an edge over some of the other guys.

 

Yes....   I just responded to Superman who made the same point as you.   Apologies, brain cramp on my part!

 

But 5 years and less than 39 mill (less than 8 mill per year) tells me that the NFL community didn't see him as a top-5 guy either.

 

Perhaps a top-10/12 guy.     But top-5?    I still think that's a bit too high....

 

[loudnproudcolt]

I was looking over cap space and teams, and as I posted earlier, agree with Sup. on who we will let go. The older FA's did not work. No way you keep Cole, AJ just had no rapport with Luck, Werner should go now that Pagano can field who he wants, and there will be one or two we don't expect. I love Mathis, but 36 and 6M/yr. I would like to let DQ go, and restructure Jones contract. Regardless I see about 50M, which is a pretty good place to be

 

As I was going through cap space the team who really jumped up at me is Jacksonville. I know it is a little off topic, but they are in our division. They have over 70M in cap space this year!

 

So Jacksonville is who I want to be in terms of cap space, Miami is who I don't want to be. That Suh signing is going to haunt them for at least 3 more years. 20% of your cap space spent on an interior DL. For that they could have signed 3 quality players at 10M/yr this season.

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, loudnproudcolt said:

I was looking over cap space and teams, and as I posted earlier, agree with Sup. on who we will let go. The older FA's did not work. No way you keep Cole, AJ just had no rapport with Luck, Werner should go now that Pagano can field who he wants, and there will be one or two we don't expect. I love Mathis, but 36 and 6M/yr. I would like to let DQ go, and restructure Jones contract. Regardless I see about 50M, which is a pretty good place to be

 

As I was going through cap space the team who really jumped up at me is Jacksonville. I know it is a little off topic, but they are in our division. They have over 70M in cap space this year!

 

So Jacksonville is who I want to be in terms of cap space, Miami is who I don't want to be. That Suh signing is going to haunt them for at least 3 more years. 20% of your cap space spent on an interior DL. For that they could have signed 3 quality players at 10M/yr this season.

 

I don't like Suh for that money. Never did. He's not a high level pass rusher, doesn't get a lot of sacks. His ability and talent are obvious, but not for high level QB money. No thanks.

 

Mathis isn't going anywhere. The Colts added that extra year to his deal knowing how old he'd be and what shape he'd be in. He's not ready to retire, and they're going to let him end his career as a Colt. I think he can be as productive next year as he was last, maybe better, and 7+ sacks for a designated pass rusher isn't bad. He also has some incentives for 10+ sacks, so I say let him try to earn some extra money.

 

Jacksonville has a bunch of cap space because they've had no good players. Their draft picks have bombed, they haven't had to retain any players, they haven't been able to land any free agents, they don't have a QB contract on their payroll, etc. Same thing with the Raiders and Bucs. The Niners just chopped a bunch of contracts last year, so they have a lot of cap space. And the Bears have made some notable moves, so they're at $55m. None of those teams are good; at least the Raiders and Jags look promising, and the Niners have a hot shot coach. The Bears are stuck on average, and the Bucs are rebooting again. You don't want to be those teams.

 

If Jones will agree to an incentive-based deal (games played, primarily), then I'm okay with keeping him. He can play two positions reasonably well. If not, hail fellow well met. The rest of the subtractions are pretty predictable, like you said. I think the writing's on the wall with Werner, with several healthy inactives down the stretch in a critical season, and no guaranteed money remaining on his contract. D'Qwell is the only questionable decision. 

[ztboiler]

On 1/9/2016 at 4:29 AM, Superman said:

Based on Spotrac and OTC. Sometimes the info doesn't matchup, so some of my own calculations and judgments are used. For instance, the sites conflict on the Frank Gore contract, with Spotrac having more detail, so I'm using Spotrac's info on that.

 

The salary cap for 2015 was $143.3m. That's in keeping with the cap increase of the previous two years of over 7.5%. So I'm projecting a cap of $154m in 2016.

 

As of the end of 2015, the Colts have a cap figure of $143.4m. because of 2014 rollover, they had an adjusted salary cap of ~$152.4m. So that leaves a $9m surplus that can be rolled over to 2016. 

 

The Colts have ~$131.7m committed to the 2016 cap. The Colts adjusted cap after rollover would be ~$163m. That leaves the Colts with over $31m in cap space before any roster moves are made (releases, extensions, re-signings, etc.) The Colts have ~$81m committed in 2017.

 

Colts 2016 cap breakdown: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/cap/

Colts 2016 free agents: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/indianapolis-colts/

NFL 2016 free agents (you can sort by name, cap hit, position, team, etc.): http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

 

Likely veteran releases include Andre Johnson (- $5m), Trent Cole (- $6.125m), Arthur Jones (- $2.3m), maybe Bjoern Werner (- $1.5m). Another possible but less likely release is D'Qwell Jackson (- $5.25m). Irsay says he wants the team to get younger, and he suggested some veteran releases are on the way. Those five moves would free up an additional $20.2m, giving the Colts over $51m in cap space. 

 

We need ~$10m for draft picks. Restricted free agents include Doyle, Herron, Akeem Davis, Okine and Trey Williams, whose tenders equal just under $5m. 

 

Biggest agenda item is re-signing Luck, who has a cap hit of $16.155m. Irsay says he hopes to get that deal done this offseason, and Luck says he would like to do so as well. The trick is actually getting it done. If not, I assume they'd cut off talks by the end of camp, and then Luck would be franchise tagged in 2017.

 

Notable free agents that should even remotely be considered for new contracts are Freeman, Fleener, Allen, Vinatieri, Winn, Anderson and Lowery. None of these guys are bank breakers, but a couple of them might want more than we should give them, and Allen in particular might want to walk due to his usage. Freeman could be allowed to walk, since he's 30 at the start of the season and this is his only shot at a pay day. Lowery could walk. I think we could keep all but Allen without adding more than $15m in 2016 (or swap Allen for Fleener for the same money, basically). 

 

That would leave us $21m under the cap, without any free agent signings. The Colts are in good cap position moving forward, but they definitely need to be prudent in managing costs and handing out new contracts. Not a lot of room for a big spending spree. Doesn't rule out hooking a big fish or two, if the contracts are done right.

Looks like we have less carryover realized than projected.  Just shy of $5M per the NFLPA release.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000638403/article/salarycap-carryover-figures-announced-by-nflpa

[Superman]

3 hours ago, ztboiler said:

Looks like we have less carryover realized than projected.  Just shy of $5M per the NFLPA release.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000638403/article/salarycap-carryover-figures-announced-by-nflpa

 

Yeah, part of that is Mathis hitting some incentives. I haven't figured out the rest, but it's about $2m, so...

 

The cap will be higher than $154m, so it's close to being a wash.

[Superman]

After initial free agency work, here's the Colts updated standing.

 

Including rollover space from 2015, the Colts adjusted salary cap in 2016 is $160.6m. Including projected draft pick contracts and all new contracts so far, the Colts have $146.3m committed, leaving ~$14.3m in cap space going into the season. Coincidentally, the Colts top 51 figure with projected cap hits is also $146.3m.

 

The team has said they want to do Luck's contract before training camp, while leaving open the possibility that it doesn't get done before the season starts. I think it gets done sometime before camp (Irsay says July 4), and it will probably change Luck's cap hit.

 

Where things get interesting is in 2017. As of today, the Colts have 34 players under contract for 2017, not including Luck or draft picks for this year or next. They have $92m committed right now, against a cap that will probably be at least $165m. Assume Luck's 2017 cap hit is $25m (which is most likely higher than it will be), and add in $13m for 2016 and 2017 draft picks (also probably too high), and that's $130m committed. If players like Jones, Jackson and Gore don't make it, that could make available up to $16m. So even with me over-estimating Luck's cap hit and the cost of draft picks, the Colts will still be in good cap shape going into 2017.

 

Potential free agents include Mathis, Walden, Cole, Butler, Adams, Thornton, Holmes, Moore, Doyle, etc. No one that the Colts will be spending big money on, unless Thornton or Moore has a great 2016, but still, we're probably not looking at very big contracts for anyone in this class (which means the 2013 draft was awful, and we already know that). 

 

Long story short, the Colts can be $35-50m under the cap in 2017, without any rollover, with their franchise QB locked up, and no high cost free agents to worry about. RIP to the idea that the Colts are entering cap hell after Luck gets paid.

[TheRustonRifle#7]

9 minutes ago, Superman said:

After initial free agency work, here's the Colts updated standing.

 

Including rollover space from 2015, the Colts adjusted salary cap in 2016 is $160.6m. Including projected draft pick contracts and all new contracts so far, the Colts have $146.3m committed, leaving ~$14.3m in cap space going into the season. Coincidentally, the Colts top 51 figure with projected cap hits is also $146.3m.

 

The team has said they want to do Luck's contract before training camp, while leaving open the possibility that it doesn't get done before the season starts. I think it gets done sometime before camp (Irsay says July 4), and it will probably change Luck's cap hit.

 

Where things get interesting is in 2017. As of today, the Colts have 34 players under contract for 2017, not including Luck or draft picks for this year or next. They have $92m committed right now, against a cap that will probably be at least $165m. Assume Luck's 2017 cap hit is $25m (which is most likely higher than it will be), and add in $13m for 2016 and 2017 draft picks (also probably too high), and that's $130m committed. If players like Jones, Jackson and Gore don't make it, that could make available up to $16m. So even with me over-estimating Luck's cap hit and the cost of draft picks, the Colts will still be in good cap shape going into 2017.

 

Potential free agents include Mathis, Walden, Cole, Butler, Adams, Thornton, Holmes, Moore, Doyle, etc. No one that the Colts will be spending big money on, unless Thornton or Moore has a great 2016, but still, we're probably not looking at very big contracts for anyone in this class (which means the 2013 draft was awful, and we already know that). 

 

Long story short, the Colts can be $35-50m under the cap in 2017, without any rollover, with their franchise QB locked up, and no high cost free agents to worry about. RIP to the idea that the Colts are entering cap hell after Luck gets paid.

Thank you for the clarification that some of us have been trying to tell those who refuse to believe! Great work and much appreciated!