Double A Breakdown: Week 5 vs Seattle Seahawks

[Andy]

Forgot to post this earlier; one of my more detailed breakdowns...

 

 

In what is perhaps the game of the week, the undefeated Seattle Seahawks travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts on the heels of a huge comeback victory against Houston. The Colts are coming off a 34 point win against the Jaguars, and are on a bit of a hot streak. The game also features a battle of two sophomore quarterbacks which should be fun to watch.

 

What the Colts have to do to Win

 

This is a very big game for the Colts. With a win, they move into the elite of the league (for this season). With a loss, they probably move out of the top 10, or get very closing to jumping out.

Let's start with the offense. 

Andrew Luck is going to have to make some plays against these Seahawks. He'll definitely have to minimize the mistakes; that goes without saying. He'll have to stay patient and CANNOT be rushed into making throws. If he doesn't like something, he should either tuck and run, throw it away or take the sack. He cannot force anything. This is the last team you want to force throws against, because they have the best secondary in the NFL filled with playmakers and superstars. He's going to have to a game similar to the one that he had against the 49ers, but they'll need more big plays. The Colts gave Luck the ball quite a bit last week and it worked well. I'd like to see the Colts give Luck the ball a bit more this game, but at the same time giving Richardson the ball. If they want to put up a good amount of points, they'll need to give Luck the ball. They won't necessarily be able to have those long 13+ play drives against the Seahawks because their defense is too good. They'll need to beat them with their passing game.

However, their running game should not be ignored. Trent Richardson got the ball 20 times last week and it worked out alright. I'd like to see the Colts give him the ball a few times less and Brown a few times more, and not because Brown is playing well, because the Colts could use a good change of pace back for this game. Brown isn't a very good running back, but he's proven to be be a good change of pace back with his speed and agility. He played that role well last week. Richardson also needs to make quicker reads. He's a bit slow to make reads on where to run and where the holes are. He cannot hesitate against this defense. He needs to spot a hole and burst through it. The running game will need to relieve Luck and some drives, so the running backs will need to come through when it matters. They don't need to have huge games, they just need to show up when it matters. On 3rd and short for example or on long 2nd downs. 

All the receivers will need to have roles in this game. Reggie Wayne will be going up against Richard Sherman a lot of the time (unless in the slot, which will happen quite a bit too), and when that happens, Luck should try and look for other receivers like Darrius Heyward-Bey and TY Hilton. Lavon Brazill is returning and he should be targeted too. When there's a good mismatch too, Coby Fleener should be targeted, especially in the redzone. What the Colts did well against the 49ers was that they found mismatches. They used their speedy receivers and put them up against their linebackers. That's what they have to do. They have to really utilize their speedy receivers because it's really one weakness (or not strong point) on the Seahawks' secondary. With the exception of Earl Thomas, their defensive backs have average speed. TY Hilton, Darrius Heyward Bey and Lavon Brazill all have 4.3 speed. They'll need to use their speed to beat this secondary.

The offensive line will be crucial this game. The Seahawks have a tremendous pass rush. They have 4 above average pass rushers in Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril, Bruce Irvin and Michael Bennett. Those guys can cause some damage. Clemons will be on the field almost all the time and will go up against Anthony Castonzo. Castonzo has done very well this year, but Clemons is a beast and will be a handful. He will need to stop him. He did that against Aldon Smith, which shows he has the ability to stop the elite. He must do the same against Clemens or that could cause a boat load of problems. Once the Seahawks exploit a problem, they attack it. The interior will have to be able to pick up blitzes. The Seahawks like to blitz with KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner up the middle, so the inside guys will have to be able to stop Mebane and McDaniel on top of those guys. They'll probably need a running back help with the blocking in the backfield. The point is, the Colts must be able to contain their pass rush, because protection is VITAL in winning this game.

The offensive philosophy should be to live and die by Luck. They should put the ball in his hands and let him do the magic. They'll need to exploit the Seahawks' weaknesses, and they can do that by using their speed and their bunch/stack formations. They should also try and establish a running game but also mixing it up more by bringing in their speedier back Donald Brown. The Colts have to limit their mistakes, score early and come up big when it matters to really have a good chance at winning this game.

Let's go to the defense.

The defensive line must continue their good play. What they've been doing well is that they've been penetrating the opposing team's lines and it's really helping their linebackers. On some plays, they would draw 4 blockers and it meant that there was a mismatch. These guys created mismatches for other players. That's exactly what you want from your defensive lineman. On top of all of that, Cory Redding is finding ways to get in the backfield and to be disruptive. They need to continue to do that, and the good news is, the offensive line of the Seahawks is hurting. They lost their left tackle, their right tackle is out and their center may not play. If their center does not play, the defensive line must be licking their chops. Without Unger, their interior line is very average and I would argue that the Jaguars' interior line is better. They need to continue their strong play.

The play of the linebackers has slightly depended on the play of the defensive line, but Jerrell Freeman has been a monster. He and Pat Angerer must be stop any inside runs that the Seahawks throw their way. They have to contain Marshawn Lynch. They'll need some help from the defensive line to avoid blockers but ultimately it's going to be up to them to stop those inside runs. If Lynch has a big day, it could spell trouble for the Colts. They must also be wary of the tosses that the Seahawks use. They and the outside linebackers must set the edge and contain those runs. They've been great against outside runs this year and that must continue this year. They should keep the same philosophy they've had all year. What they must add though is a spy. Russell Wilson is a great improviser and likes to run. They'll need a spy on him and they MUST contain him. His legs were a big reason why the Seahawks came back last week. They have to contain his runs and have a guy on him. Freeman matches that description perfectly and was the guy who stopped Kaepernick the most in that matchup.

in the secondary, their play will depend on how good the pressure is on Russell Wilson. There isn't a big threat in the Seahawks' receiving core, but they do produce a lot of big plays. They have deep threat receivers in Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin. The Colts should continue to do man coverage as that works, but they should have a safety playing deep and that should take away the deep passes. They need to have a guy over the top. The last thing they need is their passing offense getting big play after big play over them. When it comes to the shorter routes, it'll be on the cornerbacks/occasional safety to stick to their man. Will it happen all the time? Obviously not, but they really can't have that weak link. 

Their defensive philosophy should be to blitz to get pressure on the quarterback, which should contain the inside runs; they must also set the edge which should take away read options and outside tosses, and finally they should continue their aggressive man coverage philosophy in the secondary.

The Colts need to be fired up and motivated to win this game. They need to get off to a quick start and avoid what they did last week at the beginning of the game. The coaches have to stay positive because there will be bumps in the road, and they need to have short memories.

 

What the Seahawks have to do to Win

 

On offense, the Seahawks should try and give Russell Wilson the ball more, especially in the first half. Marshawn Lynch is a great running back, but is only averaging 3.9 yard per carry this year, and if you watch the Seahawks' road games, they overdepend on the running game early in games and it hurts their offensive production. They were only able to score 6 points in the first half of their games on the road. 6 total points in 2 first halfs on the road!! That's awful, and the main reason why is because they aren't giving Wilson many oppurtunities early on in the game. This game, they're going to need to get some points in the first half if they want to win. Last week's comeback was a blessing from above, if they're down 20-3 in the 4th quarter against the Colts, they WILL LOSE. They need to get points early, and to do that they'll need to give Russell Wilson the ball. 

They should also try and mix in the read option offense. The Colts shut down the 49ers' option offense in Week 3, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't try and mix it in. It isn't a main focus point this week, so if they time it right in the game, it could pay very big dividends.

So to recap on offense, they should give Russell Wilson the ball more (more pass happy), especially early on in games because they'll need to get points early, and they should also try and mix in their option offense. They can't rely on the defense this game, the offense must have a consistent game and must score points early.

On defense, they'll need to pressure Luck. The reason why the Colts' offense has been producing almost turnovers is because they are able to protect Luck. Luck's only interceptions have come off a miscommunication and just a bad read. Last year, he made a lot of mistakes and forced a lot of throws because the pressure got to him. We even saw that a bit early on in the season. They'll need to bring blitzes often, and they have the right unit to do that. Their defensive line is quite beastly, but what really helps is that the Seahawks are getting back Bruce Irvin this week, and he'll be playing strongside linebacker. He's a pass rushing specialist and is expected to blitz a lot. He had 9 sacks last year as a rookie. They need to have several plays that involve him, Chris Clemons, Bobby Wagner and Cliff Avril getting at the quarterback. 

Usually I would say that they should double Reggie Wayne, but Sherman is definitely good enough to cover him on his own. He needs to be wary of the traps that the Colts set. The Colts use some trick design to get receivers open. They'll bunch 3 receivers on one side, have 2 go in the opposite direction and that opens up the field for the third receiver to go up the middle. They need to be wary of that. They should have Earl Thomas or Kam Chancellor hover over the strongside. This will contain their passing game. The final thing that is very important in the passing game is that the Seahawks cannot allow to have any mismatches. Against the 49ers, the Colts were able to get some great mismatches like Darrius Heyward Bey against some linebackers. That cannot happen against the Seahawks' linebackers, or even Kam Chancellor. They need cornerbacks vs receivers and have either a safety or Bobby Wagner/KJ Wright against Coby Fleener. 

So to recap on defense, the Seahawks must be able to get to Andrew Luck and to do that they'll need to use a lot of their blitzes and their returning linebacker Bruce Irvin. They'll also have to avoid mismatches in the passing game and be wary of bunch formations and stacks. They need safeties monitoring the strongsides as well.

 

Intriguing Matchups

Usually, when it comes to matchups, I chose an offense vs defense matchup. This week I'm going to change it up. There a lot of intriguing matchups, but Andrew Luck vs Russell Wilson is the main one going into this game.

Both of these guys are two of the best young quarterbacks in the game. Both have lead their teams to playoff appearences and are captaining two of the best teams in the game right now. They only play each other once every 4 years (unless they play in the Super Bowl), so you're not going to see this matchup often, so I felt the need to point it out now, because you're not going to see it again for a long time.

 

Bold Statement

Neither quarterback will throw an interception.

 

Prediction

Indianapolis Colts 27 vs Seattle Seahawks 23