Things To Watch For

[Coffeedrinker]

Check out Superman's Week 2 Grades. He did an excellent job of breaking down each unit and explaining how they performed.

I started to do this in the same format as the previous two weeks but then most of the things ended up being similar... Watch for Collins' improvement, running game, etc. So I'm going to make things a bit different this week.

The Steelers have one of the best group of LBers in the NFL. As Caldwell has stated they are fast, aggressive, strong and active. But the front three for the Steelers has not been playing great. It used to be the Steelers could count on the offense needing four guys to block their front three and then if they bring 2 LBers to the LOS they had the numbers advantage. That has not happened much this year. Against the Ravens they had only 3 QH in the game. They bounced back with 8 against the Seahawks but believe it or not the Seahawks oline is much worse than the Colts (even adding in the link factor, a graduating scale that takes a players effectiveness and then divided by a number based on distance from Link... for example LT effectiveness/1, LG effectiveness/1.01, Center effectiveness/1.05, RG effectiveness/1.1, Link effectiveness (which is an average RT effectiveness/2)). Back on topic, so the front 7 is not as dominant as the past couple of years in large part because the front 3 are not playing well at the moment. This is shown in some of the stats... the Steelers are giving up 4.6 (big game from the Ravens, not so much from the Seahawks)yards per carry and 6.6 yards per pass play. So the best way to attack this Steeler defense is the dink and dunk game with the occasional deep pass. This should be an area the Colts try to exploit. McFadden and Taylor or solid corners but neither of them can match Wayne with his route running and Garcon has the speed to beat both deep. Troy P is always a worry and the other safety, Clark, outside of the occasional dirty hit is not a great tackler. So the Colts WR have a great chance to take a short pass and turn them into nice gains of 10 yards or more.

For the running game both Addai and Carter are running well and they have not left many yards on the field. I think both will average around 4 ypc again in this game but I don't think it will be a consistent 4. Meaning the opportunity is there for some big gains but they will also have their share of 2 yards or less.

So on the offensive side of the ball watch how the Colts attack the D. Chad72 suggested in another thread that the Colts start with a PAP to Garcon. I like that but they need to do it out of the shotgun. 1st play in a prime time game, Steelers looking to show they are an elite team, they are going to bring 5 or 6 players across the LOS on that first play, line up in the shotgun, fake the hand-off, take a step back and launch it. After that look for several short passes and runs in the tackle area with the occasional shot deep.

Defensively I think the Colts have a real advantage here. The oline, outside of Pouncey, is in flux and not playing well. Neither tackle is good at handling speed rushers, combined with Roethlisberger's propensity to double pump and double clutch his passes, this could lead to a lot of QB pressures from all 4 or 5 of the DE (not sure how much Freeney will play with his ab strain). The rush will also help negate some of the big play ability of Wallace. Ward is going to get his and against the D he should catch a lot of short to medium passes. One item to note: when LSU played Florida in 2009, Nevis had a career high in tackles for the game with 8. He was going up against ... Pouncey. With Moala being injured we could see a lot of Nevis in this game.

On the Steelers rushing game, again with an oline that is not playing well combined with Mendenhall being a little slow with his decision making the Steelers have not ran the ball well at all. I think, if the Colts stop Mendenhall a few times early, we will see the Steelers start to give more carries to Redman, who is more in the mold of Foster or Tate or even Hillis. If they do that, watch for Redman to have the same type of day Hillis had (hopefully without the long run at the end of the game).

Overall, I think the Colts D matches up well with the Steelers O. Ben R. is good at moving around in the pocket and has some scrambling ability but for the most part he likes to stand back there and try to make a big play every time he passes the ball. I also think we may see some addition by subtraction in this game if the Colts are able to keep the same LBers as last week plus seeing more Caldwell at the safety spot could all bode well for the D.

Special Teams - I'm not even going to discuss. As far as what to watch for, I recommend you don't. When the Colts are kicking off or punting, I suggest you turn off the TV, get a snack or whatever and then turn the game back on. If the Colts cover it well you will be pleasantly surprised, if they don't well then you will not have suffered watching it.

Steelers are a good team who are trying to find their rhythm. The Colts, without a doubt, need to improve their consistency. I think they will, whether or not it will be enough, we will see. I think this game is winnable for the Colts.

[Superman]

Good points about the Steelers run game and defensive line.

[ruksak]

I expect our defense to show up. Our offense....yikes, I don't think thats gonna be happening. I have no confidence in our offensive coordinator. I expect Collins to show improvement soon, but I just don't think this is the week for it.

I expect that our offense will be so inept, so dysfunctional while operating from the fetal position, that our defense will breakdown by the middle of the third quarter. Same kinda thing we've been seeing. Our defense getting turnovers and our offense being incapable of scoring off of them. More of the same, but amplified.

I'm rooting for them, I'm hopeful for a win, but to me it would be a surprise if we even remained competitive. At the start of the season I forecasted that we wouldn't start to gel as a team until week 4-5.

I'd hate to even guess the score. My preliminary guess?

16

:steelers: 38

Still a week or two away from real progress I'm afraid. Hold in there, colts fans. I feel it gets worse yet before it gets better.

[pacolts56]

Good breakdown. I think Coffeedrinker is spot on regarding our D-line vs their O-line....and that is where, hopefully, Freeney/Mathis or someone can cause a turnover or two.

The key of course is converting them into an early lead.

Like all of us....I hope we can pull a surprise and beat Pittsburgh.

But based on Collins' own turnovers and Dick Lebeau's trickery, I'm calling it 34-9 for the Steelers.

[chad72]

Big Ben has a tendency to run into stunts, he is one QB that stunts are actually effective IF you can get him down or get him to fumble the ball. A few turnovers inside Steelers territory that we can turn into TDs will actually make the difference between winning and losing. I am confident our offense can get a few first downs but not sure if they can still get the 7 instead of the 3 consistently, hence the short field will matter, IMO.

Our CBs, in this game, have to play with the cushion due to the speed of Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, the Steelers passing offense is a vertical offense. They will have a bunch of punts and then boom, there will be a deep pass. The Colts DBs have to be ready for that, no two ways about it.

If Kerry Collins can take a sack without turning the ball over, we will keep this game close. Winning it will boil down to whether they turn the ball over or not, and if we can convert those turnovers into 7 or not. Remember, the Packers, in the SB, off 3 Steelers turnovers, scored 21 out of their 31 points. That is the best way to get the crowd into it, by getting TDs and staying ahead.

I think we will see some improvement from our offense but not enough to overcome the Steelers. Steelers 31 Colts 24

[Coffeedrinker]

Wow you guys, 30+ for the Steelers. The controlled the clock for 39 minutes against the Seahawks and only scored 24. And even without Manning the Colts are better than the Seahawks and the Colts D is a lot better than Seattle's.

In order for the Steelers to score more than 30 there will have to be some big plays in the return game (possible) and some Colt turnovers in Colts' territory.

[ruksak]

Wow you guys, 30+ for the Steelers. The controlled the clock for 39 minutes against the Seahawks and only scored 24. And even without Manning the Colts are better than the Seahawks and the Colts D is a lot better than Seattle's.

In order for the Steelers to score more than 30 there will have to be some big plays in the return game (possible) and some Colt turnovers in Colts' territory.

I placed the Steelers at 38 points due to the same reasons we've seen all year. Great field position throughout, granted by poor kick coverage and turnovers. The worst thing that could happen is the Steelers jumping out to an early multiple score lead. Once that happens we've shown an inability to not only catch up, but an inability to even function. In other words, if they score 17 to our 3 in the first, another 3 TD's will be easy for them to score by the games end.

[a06cc]

I really want to see Jerry Hughes in this game rushing off the edge.

[Jason_]

Special Teams - I'm not even going to discuss. As far as what to watch for, I recommend you don't. When the Colts are kicking off or punting, I suggest you turn off the TV, get a snack or whatever and then turn the game back on. If the Colts cover it well you will be pleasantly surprised, if they don't well then you will not have suffered watching it.

Great write up and excellent points...and I agree with your suggestion for special teams plays lol

My prediction from another thread:

Steelers - 23

Colts - 13

[ruksak]

I really want to see Jerry Hughes in this game rushing off the edge.

I really wanna see Jerry Hughes in this game not sucking his thumb and not being driven sideways by Pitts O-linemen

[byrddawg]

I think your posts are on the mark.

[chad72]

Big Ben has a tendency to run into stunts, he is one QB that stunts are actually effective IF you can get him down or get him to fumble the ball. A few turnovers inside Steelers territory that we can turn into TDs will actually make the difference between winning and losing. I am confident our offense can get a few first downs but not sure if they can still get the 7 instead of the 3 consistently, hence the short field will matter, IMO.

Our CBs, in this game, have to play with the cushion due to the speed of Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, the Steelers passing offense is a vertical offense. They will have a bunch of punts and then boom, there will be a deep pass. The Colts DBs have to be ready for that, no two ways about it.

If Kerry Collins can take a sack without turning the ball over, we will keep this game close. Winning it will boil down to whether they turn the ball over or not, and if we can convert those turnovers into 7 or not. Remember, the Packers, in the SB, off 3 Steelers turnovers, scored 21 out of their 31 points. That is the best way to get the crowd into it, by getting TDs and staying ahead.

I think we will see some improvement from our offense but not enough to overcome the Steelers. Steelers 31 Colts 24

Just quoting myself. Short field, turnovers, defending vertical offense, scoring off turnovers, so far so good for the Colts. Let us hope the final score is turned around, I would love to be wrong there .

[Coffeedrinker]

Just quoting myself. Short field, turnovers, defending vertical offense, scoring off turnovers, so far so good for the Colts. Let us hope the final score is turned around, I would love to be wrong there .

Nothing like patting yourself of the back. ;). That's kind of why I came here as well. I knew the Colts had an advantage on both lines and I think that showed.

I must also say Link played a good game, I will recount when I re-watch it but I only saw two pressures coming from Link's guy.

Lefeged played well and I would have said that even if he didn't get a gift INT.

Colts ran well, stuffed the run well. So many good things in this game. Too bad there are no moral victories because the Colts played a heck of a game and deserved to win.

[chad72]

Nothing like patting yourself of the back. ;). That's kind of why I came here as well. I knew the Colts had an advantage on both lines and I think that showed.

I must also say Link played a good game, I will recount when I re-watch it but I only saw two pressures coming from Link's guy.

Lefeged played well and I would have said that even if he didn't get a gift INT.

Colts ran well, stuffed the run well. So many good things in this game. Too bad there are no moral victories because the Colts played a heck of a game and deserved to win.

For some reason, I felt that if Painter got 10-15% of the reps while Peyton was hogging all those reps, he would not have those deer-in-the-headlights look sometimes when he steps on the field and take time to settle down. If I am the Colts, I scrap the Collins experiment, let Painter take all the reps and go with it.

Yes, the entire O-line played well, run and pass blocking. But then, the Steelers had 0 turnovers in the Seahawks game despite dominating it, and had zero sacks today as well. Maybe their LBs are not what they are. Only that "hair" guy is worth something consistently. I would not get too high since our D has known to take a nose dive on the road in the past, so that is something the D should be cognizant of, getting too high about themselves. The Bucs' O-line is definitely better than that of the Steelers, IMO.

Who did Harrison beat on the right side to cause that fumble? Just curious. Or was it a blitz not picked up?

[Coffeedrinker]

For some reason, I felt that if Painter got 10-15% of the reps while Peyton was hogging all those reps, he would not have those deer-in-the-headlights look sometimes when he steps on the field and take time to settle down. If I am the Colts, I scrap the Collins experiment, let Painter take all the reps and go with it.

Yes, the entire O-line played well, run and pass blocking. But then, the Steelers had 0 turnovers in the Seahawks game despite dominating it, and had zero sacks today as well. Maybe their LBs are not what they are. Only that "hair" guy is worth something consistently. I would not get too high since our D has known to take a nose dive on the road in the past, so that is something the D should be cognizant of, getting too high about themselves. The Bucs' O-line is definitely better than that of the Steelers, IMO.

Who did Harrison beat on the right side to cause that fumble? Just curious. Or was it a blitz not picked up?

Harrison was on the offensive left, he beat AC. Something surprising because AC had been doing well all game.

Also I'd like to mention that Clark got beat a couple of time trying to block Harrison one on one, but Eldridge absolutely dominated Harrison every time they went against each other.

[chad72]

Harrison was on the offensive left, he beat AC. Something surprising because AC had been doing well all game.

Also I'd like to mention that Clark got beat a couple of time trying to block Harrison one on one, but Eldridge absolutely dominated Harrison every time they went against each other.

I was expecting Eldridge all the time, ask Clark to chip and release instead of holding on to the block. Not a good idea, IMO!!!

[Coffeedrinker]

I was expecting Eldridge all the time, ask Clark to chip and release instead of holding on to the block. Not a good idea, IMO!!!

A healthy Eldridge is a lot of fun to watch. And yes I think Tampa has a better line than the Steelers (they have Davin Joseph after all). And I think, their defensive front 4 is better than the Steelers front 3. I will watch their last game this week to really evaluate them.

I may be a homer but I still think 9-7 maybe even 10-6 is within reach. As long as the Colts don't start giving injured players their starting job back. Like, I'm sorry Brackett but there is a new MIKE in town and he's more Angerer than you.

Diem, if you don't move to RT then you will be a valuable back-up because Pollack played extremely well.

Obviously I hope they DO put Manning in when he's ready.

Bullitt, watch Lefeged, see what happens when you don't run behind the ball carrier.

Wheeler is playing that SAM position like it should be played.