Should the Bears draft a QB, or keep Justin Fields?

[chad72]

The issue/question the Bears will be if they have the right OC and QB development lined up for the rookie. It almost feels like Eberflus is going in like a lame duck coach like Pagano, IMO. It’s like handing Trubisky to John Fox in his last year. Then you put the young QB through the ringer again with instability on offense.

[Lancer1]

On 2/3/2024 at 4:47 AM, BLUESHOECREW said:

Name 5 High level Bear QB’s in Franchise history. Fields has shown he is capable of winning games with his legs alone. Take the obvious Franchise player in Harrison Jr. and trade back in the draft with the ninth. Maybe draft McCarthy or depending on Raiders drafting a qb, trade for O Connell, as Fields backup. 

Sid Luckman - Drafted by the Bears #2 overall in 1939, played his entire career (12 years) in Chicago, starting 61 of the 128 games he played, 5-1 record in the postseason with 4 championships & 5 first team All Pro selections, he was the 1st QB  to throw 7 TD passes in a game, a feat since duplicated by 7 others (Adrian Burk, George Blanda, Y. A. Tittle, Joe Kapp, Peyton Manning, Nick Foles & Drew Brees)  and he is a member of both the College & Pro Football Halls of Fame.

 

Jim McMahon - Drafted by the Bears #5 in the 1st Round, played 7 seasons, started 61 of the 66 games he played with a 46-15 record, and a victory in Superbowl XX.

 

Jay Cutler - Traded from Denver to Chicago while he was a Pro Bowl QB, played 8 seasons, started all 102 games he played for the Bears, with a .500 record (51-51) throwing 154 touchdowns against 109 picks. 

 

Rex Grossman - Drafted by the Bears in the 1st Round, (#22) played 6 seasons, started 31 of the 36 games he played with a 19-12 record, led them to Superbowl XLI with the same regular season stats (23 TDs & 20 interceptions) that Eli Manning had when he led the Giants to Superbowl XLII the following season.

 

Jim Harbaugh - Drafted by the Bears in the 1st Round, (#26) played 7 seasons, started 65 games and played in 89 with a 35-30 record with 50 touchdowns & 56 interceptions.

 

Justin Fields was drafted #11 overall in 2021, he's started 38 of the 40 games he's played in with a 10-28 record, with 40 touchdown passes against 30 picks, and 2,220 rushing yards for 130 1st downs & 14 touchdowns. I think you can

probably win with him, especiallty if you give him a few supporting offensive weapons and even an average defense, and Matt Eberflus can produce that.

[Superman]

On 2/4/2024 at 6:57 AM, chad72 said:

The issue/question the Bears will be if they have the right OC and QB development lined up for the rookie. It almost feels like Eberflus is going in like a lame duck coach like Pagano, IMO. It’s like handing Trubisky to John Fox in his last year. Then you put the young QB through the ringer again with instability on offense.

 

If I were the Bears, this would be a mini reset for the coaching staff, with at least a two year window. If they weren't planning for Eberflus to stay for a minute, then they should have fired him and started from scratch.

 

But they replaced the OC and are in the process of hiring several new offensive assistants, so they should be looking at it as if they have a little bit of time with whoever they draft this year. And even though I'm not a huge Eberflus fan, they won seven games this year, with Fields missing four games and some other glaring holes on their roster. 

[Happy2BeHere]

On 2/2/2024 at 2:58 PM, Superman said:

 

That's all fair and good insight, but none of it is connected to the Bears. Back in September, we didn't know who would be picking at the top of the draft. People had the Cardinals at #1 back then. Coincidentally (or maybe not?), Williams' dad mentioned Kyler Murray...

 

And right now, they seem to be pushing back against the narrative that they don't like the Bears. 

 

Separate, but related, I think the point Williams' dad was making is logical, and kind of obvious. It doesn't sound good coming from him, and honestly I'd rather not hear from the presumptive #1 pick's parents leading up to the draft, not about this kind of stuff. And just because a team has the #1 pick doesn't mean they're a bad organization. But the list of highly regarded QB prospects who went to bad teams high in the draft, only to struggle, is about a mile long. There are a bunch of QBs who got drafted by teams with defensive minded HCs, and got mismanaged. And even though there's always going to be some shade thrown on Eli and Archie Manning, they were probably right about the Chargers. Just look at the dysfunction that came out of that building in the following couple of years.

 

IF Williams' and his 'people' came out and said he didn't want to be drafted by the Bears, I'd get it. I think the Bears mismanaged Justin Fields, Eberflus probably has a short leash, and the Bears historically don't do well with QBs. I'm not saying he shouldn't want to go there, just saying I'd understand it if that were the case.

It does suck to know you’ve been drafted, or at least have the possibility of being drafted, by an organization whose coach is very likely on the proverbial hot seat. Your chance of having to relearn an entire offense when you’re a rookie QB especially sucks in the first few years. It’s easily possible that Eberflus is canned after this year…if they don’t make the playoffs OR they have a respectable record like 10+ wins but miss the playoffs because of other teams having better records then I definitely see him as being fired.

 

If I was a player being drafted this would be my number one concern…what’s the likelihood the head coach gets fired in my first 2 years.

 

Which is really weird for Bryce young, brand new head coach in his first year i guarantee he never imagined Reich would be fired after one year let alone not even the full year.

[Superman]

51 minutes ago, Happy2BeHere said:

It does suck to know you’ve been drafted, or at least have the possibility of being drafted, by an organization whose coach is very likely on the proverbial hot seat. Your chance of having to relearn an entire offense when you’re a rookie QB especially sucks in the first few years. It’s easily possible that Eberflus is canned after this year…if they don’t make the playoffs OR they have a respectable record like 10+ wins but miss the playoffs because of other teams having better records then I definitely see him as being fired.

 

If I was a player being drafted this would be my number one concern…what’s the likelihood the head coach gets fired in my first 2 years.

 

Which is really weird for Bryce young, brand new head coach in his first year i guarantee he never imagined Reich would be fired after one year let alone not even the full year.

 

I mentioned this in the above post, but I hope the Bears decided to keep Eberflus without expecting an amazing season in 2024. The idea that they win 10 games and fire him is kind of crazy to me. I guess we'll see...

 

But in general, if you're a highly drafted QB, it's a strong likelihood that you're going to outlast your first HC. It sucks, but that's how it's been going over the last few years. In the last three seasons, there have been 23 new HCs. That's insane to think about. In 2022, ten new HCs; last year, just five; this year, eight new HCs (and I could make a case for 2-3 more being on the brink; how is Dennis Allen still on with the Saints??)

 

There are only eight HCs who have been on their current job for more than five years. The other 75% of NFL head coaches were hired in 2020 or later. So if you get drafted in the first round, and the team picks up your fifth year option, you're probably lasting longer than your first HC. And let's not get started on coordinator changes... 

 

So if you're a QB getting drafted at #1, does it really matter if the HC is on the hot seat right now? He's probably going to be on the hot seat at some point in the next 2-3 years anyway, it's just the nature of the business. Like you said, I don't think anyone expected the Reich/Young pairing to get blown up so quickly. You just never know.

 

And it might seem counterintuitive, especially because I'm not necessarily an Eberflus fan, but if the Bears are going to draft a QB in 2024, they need to commit to their present coaching staff for at least a couple seasons, bottom line. They've made significant changes to their offensive coaching staff, and hopefully they're fostering an environment in which a young QB can thrive.

[Superman]

Just went back to 2018, on a whim. Here's every QB drafted in the first round who is still with his first team as of today, and how many HCs he's had, as of 2024.

 

2018: 

Josh Allen (1)

Lamar Jackson (1)

 

2019:

Kyler Murray (2)

Daniel Jones (3)

 

2020:

Joe Burrow (1)

Tua Tagovailoa (2)

Justin Herbert (3)

Jordan Love (1)

 

2021:

Trevor Lawrence (2)

Zach Wilson (1)

Justin Fields (2)

 

2022:

Kenny Pickett (1)

 

So that's 50%, and doesn't include guys like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins (RIP), whose original teams have changed HCs since they were drafted. Also not listing 2023 because it's so early, but that's already 1 out of 3... 

 

Just illustrating that the coaching carousel is just as crazy as the QB carousel. Teams don't seem to have any idea what they're doing...

[ArmchairQB]

On 2/5/2024 at 11:29 PM, Lancer1 said:

Sid Luckman - Drafted by the Bears #2 overall in 1939, played his entire career (12 years) in Chicago, starting 61 of the 128 games he played, 5-1 record in the postseason with 4 championships & 5 first team All Pro selections, he was the 1st QB  to throw 7 TD passes in a game, a feat since duplicated by 7 others (Adrian Burk, George Blanda, Y. A. Tittle, Joe Kapp, Peyton Manning, Nick Foles & Drew Brees)  and he is a member of both the College & Pro Football Halls of Fame.

 

Jim McMahon - Drafted by the Bears #5 in the 1st Round, played 7 seasons, started 61 of the 66 games he played with a 46-15 record, and a victory in Superbowl XX.

 

Jay Cutler - Traded from Denver to Chicago while he was a Pro Bowl QB, played 8 seasons, started all 102 games he played for the Bears, with a .500 record (51-51) throwing 154 touchdowns against 109 picks. 

 

Rex Grossman - Drafted by the Bears in the 1st Round, (#22) played 6 seasons, started 31 of the 36 games he played with a 19-12 record, led them to Superbowl XLI with the same regular season stats (23 TDs & 20 interceptions) that Eli Manning had when he led the Giants to Superbowl XLII the following season.

 

Jim Harbaugh - Drafted by the Bears in the 1st Round, (#26) played 7 seasons, started 65 games and played in 89 with a 35-30 record with 50 touchdowns & 56 interceptions.

 

Justin Fields was drafted #11 overall in 2021, he's started 38 of the 40 games he's played in with a 10-28 record, with 40 touchdown passes against 30 picks, and 2,220 rushing yards for 130 1st downs & 14 touchdowns. I think you can

probably win with him, especiallty if you give him a few supporting offensive weapons and even an average defense, and Matt Eberflus can produce that.

As a Chicago native it is insane how snake bitten the Bears have been with QB’s throughout the years.  Cade McNown,  Trubisky on top of all the others you named.  
 

Justin Fields has shown flashes but I imagine they see Williams as a big upgrade.  But man with Virginia and the McCaskey’s  I’m not sure any quarterback will ever succeed there.  I had heard a rumor that Williams didn’t want to go to Chicago.  Hard to blame him.  But I think they’re going to draft him.  
 

as far as Flus I think they want to do a soft reset and then throw him in Lake Michigan next year after they have had a year to evaluate what kind of coach they will need going forward.  In my opinion this is the ONLY reason he is still there.

[Lancer1]

1 hour ago, ArmchairQB said:

As a Chicago native it is insane how snake bitten the Bears have been with QB’s throughout the years.  Cade McNown,  Trubisky on top of all the others you named.  
 

Justin Fields has shown flashes but I imagine they see Williams as a big upgrade.  But man with Virginia and the McCaskey’s  I’m not sure any quarterback will ever succeed there.  I had heard a rumor that Williams didn’t want to go to Chicago.  Hard to blame him.  But I think they’re going to draft him.  
 

as far as Flus I think they want to do a soft reset and then throw him in Lake Michigan next year after they have had a year to evaluate what kind of coach they will need going forward.  In my opinion this is the ONLY reason he is still there.

Congrats to former Bears Devin Hester, Steve McMichael  & Julius Peppers who were elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

[Thunderbolt]

Not sure what the Bears have on their mind, they're unpredictable, they may move back, pick up some draft capital or pull a bonehead move and pass up on the top two QBs like they did with Mahomes....

[BLUESHOECREW]

On 2/3/2024 at 8:49 AM, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Not gonna complain if that happens.

 

But.. don't you like any of the QBs in this draft class? 

 

What's your concerns with each of them that you think will stop from being a franchise QB at NFL level? 

Caleb Williams was inconsistent, especially against quality teams, and didn’t show he can make plays in big game moments. Maye, unfortunately, has the curse of being the NFL prototype QB from North Carolina. Besides superstition, he played in a very average ACC and wasn’t even the best QB in his conference, FSU’s Travis was.
 

Nix could go either way, but having a pro style offense and a above average accuracy and arm strength, along with mobility, he should have a slight edge transitioning and succeeding in the NFL, where QB’s don’t have the time to struggle or develop anymore. People are already calling for Bryce Young’s job in Carolina. Remember when Peyton Manning went 3-13 and broke the NFL record for INT’s in his rookie season. We’d never known he would become a Hall of Famer if he played today, because these young, developing qb’s receive unrelentless pressure and are expected to be franchise changing saviors their first couple of seasons, instead of allowing them to commit all their mental  focus to their play on the field and building camaraderie with their teammates and communities. 

 

McCarthy reminds me a lot of AJ McCarron. A solid backup that won’t lose or win the game for you, but can keep you in it by not trying to do too much or turning the ball over. Michael Pennix Jr, a good college QB, but size and skillset aren’t NFL applicable. 
 

Forgive me, but, I can’t think of any other potential day 1 or day 2 QB’s. I feel like I’m forgetting a few and one of the higher draft projected. I’m sure there is going to be some great players that end up coming from this class, but for me, only 2, really stick out as NFL ready and the ceiling only should get higher, for Marvin Harrison Jr and John Alt. I don’t think you can pass up Harrison at 1 and possibly have Alt on the board at 9. That would bring in 2 solid starters, with the possibility of being franchise level talents from day 1. 

[NFLfan]

2 hours ago, BLUESHOECREW said:

Forgive me, but, I can’t think of any other potential day 1 or day 2 QB’s

 

Daniels?

[chad72]

On 2/8/2024 at 11:21 PM, ArmchairQB said:

As a Chicago native it is insane how snake bitten the Bears have been with QB’s throughout the years.  Cade McNown,  Trubisky on top of all the others you named.  
 

Justin Fields has shown flashes but I imagine they see Williams as a big upgrade.  But man with Virginia and the McCaskey’s  I’m not sure any quarterback will ever succeed there.  I had heard a rumor that Williams didn’t want to go to Chicago.  Hard to blame him.  But I think they’re going to draft him.  
 

as far as Flus I think they want to do a soft reset and then throw him in Lake Michigan next year after they have had a year to evaluate what kind of coach they will need going forward.  In my opinion this is the ONLY reason he is still there.

 

Better to have drafted him and get another round of a rookie contract to work with to see what he can do rather than see him flourish elsewhere and be known as the franchise that landed 2 consecutive No.1 picks only to not have a franchise QB attempt made in both years.  Like Brian Urlacher said in an interview "if you have to ask me after 3 years if he is the guy, then he is not probably your guy" and I agree with him regarding Justin Fields.

 

Franchise QBs don't grow on trees. Mahomes was considered risky and had his share of bad reviews. He was compared to Jay Cutler on his nfl.com profile:

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71

 

Except that no one could predict how Mahomes would develop under the right circumstances. That is why I felt the Bears better surround Caleb Williams with excellent OC and QB coaching to make the most out of what he can do right and minimize what he can do wrong. Even Andrew Luck threw balls that sailed and threw bad picks but he could also make plays to get you back into the game, feel the same way with Caleb Williams and his mistakes. Jordan Love had a terrific junior year and an average senior year but was developed right and used patiently. Mahomes went from a deep ball hunter like his profile above when Tyreek Hill was around to tempering his tendencies and playing smart football by taking what the D gives at times and knowing when to take chances and knowing when to run or throw on the run.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

If Bears draft Williams they better be drafting him on more then just the off structure stuff. Fields already does that well. I have a feeling Williams is going to be a bust.  I hope fields goes to the right situation and flourishes. Bears are flat out awful at developing quarterbacks.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Rumor is Mcarthy is very high on most nfl executives boards. They feel the scheme didn’t allow him to show what he can really do. He is very young like Richardson is.

[Superman]

 

 

After these comments, I think they're definitely trading Fields. If you publicly acknowledge that you're considering trading your QB and have talked to him about it, it's basically a done deal.

[chad72]

Fields is most likely going to the Falcons:

 

 

[smittywerb]

Trading fields has always made the most sense.  Keeping fields means you’re going to commit +$50million/yr to him.  And I’m sorry, fields is not worth that.  Trade fields, get more picks, draft Caleb, restart the qb rookie deal clock, and build your team.  Only thing that’s holding this up is the bears driving up the price by not pulling the trigger.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, smittywerb said:

Trading fields has always made the most sense.  Keeping fields means you’re going to commit +$50million/yr to him.  And I’m sorry, fields is not worth that.  Trade fields, get more picks, draft Caleb, restart the qb rookie deal clock, and build your team.  Only thing that’s holding this up is the bears driving up the price by not pulling the trigger.

 

There was a rumor a couple days ago that the Bears might want to trade Fields, and trade the #1 pick, and draft a different QB. Some reports say the Commanders are enamored with Caleb Williams. And then the Raiders really want Jayden Daniels.

 

It probably wouldn't happen, but if the Bears moved down to #2, and then down again to #3, and still got Drake Maye, plus whatever they can get for Fields, and still have #9 (Rome Odunze? Brock Bowers? The best LT?), they'd have a lot of reason to be excited.

[chad72]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

There was a rumor a couple days ago that the Bears might want to trade Fields, and trade the #1 pick, and draft a different QB. Some reports say the Commanders are enamored with Caleb Williams. And then the Raiders really want Jayden Daniels.

 

It probably wouldn't happen, but if the Bears moved down to #2, and then down again to #3, and still got Drake Maye, plus whatever they can get for Fields, and still have #9 (Rome Odunze? Brock Bowers? The best LT?), they'd have a lot of reason to be excited.

 

Williams has shown glimpses in 2022 season that he can be special and when you scout the overall body of work, a guy that can throw off several platforms and angles and has a Josh Allen/Mahomes like arm, you don't look up the gift horse in its mouth.

 

Yeah, you can win with other QBs, but when you evaluate a prospect, just like we evaluated AR, you are evaluating them for what you could make out of them versus what they are right now. Williams' floor is definitely higher than that of AR, from my point of view with more starting experience but with more starts comes more nitpicking.

 

Like I have said several times before, no matter their QB, The Bears better have a real good plan for developing him and maximizing his talents.

[smittywerb]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

There was a rumor a couple days ago that the Bears might want to trade Fields, and trade the #1 pick, and draft a different QB. Some reports say the Commanders are enamored with Caleb Williams. And then the Raiders really want Jayden Daniels.

 

It probably wouldn't happen, but if the Bears moved down to #2, and then down again to #3, and still got Drake Maye, plus whatever they can get for Fields, and still have #9 (Rome Odunze? Brock Bowers? The best LT?), they'd have a lot of reason to be excited.

yup, heard the same also.  If they’re not in love with Caleb and like either Jayden or Drake more, they could even get more picks.  Like if that were to happen and they couldn’t build a winner, it’s just not meant to be lol.

 

but yeah, kind of envy the bears right now.  But id rather go through multiple seasons of having a competitive team instead of having the number one pick back to back years.  And  not to mention they passed on CJ stroud for this opportunity lol

[Superman]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

Williams has shown glimpses in 2022 season that he can be special and when you scout the overall body of work, a guy that can throw off several platforms and angles and has a Josh Allen/Mahomes like arm, you don't look up the gift horse in its mouth.

 

Yeah, you can win with other QBs, but when you evaluate a prospect, just like we evaluated AR, you are evaluating them for what you could make out of them versus what they are right now. Williams' floor is definitely higher than that of AR, from my point of view with more starting experience but with more starts comes more nitpicking.

 

Like I have said several times before, no matter their QB, The Bears better have a real good plan for developing him and maximizing his talents.

 

I don't disagree. They should draft Caleb Williams. But if they honestly think he's not the right guy for them, and are not just playing with a simulator and falling in love with the idea of piling up a bunch of draft picks, they could get a nice return by moving back, and still get a good QB prospect.

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, smittywerb said:

but yeah, kind of envy the bears right now.  But id rather go through multiple seasons of having a competitive team instead of having the number one pick back to back years.  And  not to mention they passed on CJ stroud for this opportunity lol

 

To be clear, they have the #1 pick from the Panthers, who jumped up and drafted their QB of choice. I think they got it wrong, but we'll see. The Bears won 7 games in 2023, they're already showing some competitiveness, IMO. 

 

Also, last year, I was a fan of a potential trade back that could put the team in position to get to #1 this year. I really liked Stroud, I thought he was the best QB last year, but I always liked Caleb Williams more. The Bears really got lucky because the Panthers were terrible, but now they're in great shape, and can draft IMO the best QB prospect in a long time.