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SteelCityColt

Where Starters Were Drafted

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@SteelCityColt thanks for this!

 

Using this info, conventional wisdom would say to draft as follows:

 

(Position of highest priority listed first)

Round 1:  QB, OT, DE, CB, OLB, DT, S, G, C, ILB, RB, WR, TE

Round 2:  C, ILB, CB, WR, RB, S, DT, TE, OT, DE, G, QB, OLB

Round 3:  G, DT, DE, TE, S, OLB, RB, WR, CB, ILB, QB

Round 4:  DE, RB, TE, OLB, ILB, S, WR, C, OT, G, DT

Round 5:  P, K, TE, OLB, RB, C, S, DT, ILB, WR, OT

Round 6:  C, P, ILB, K, QB, TE, 

Round 7:  K, P, LS

 

Draft your franchise QB and OT in the 1st.  Shutdown CBs in the 1st/2nd.  C and LB in the 2nd.  G and DT in the 3rd.  Skill positions (WR/RB/TE) in the middle rounds.  Pass rushers can be drafted in the 4th(?).  Special Teamers in late rounds.  Safety just depends on the talent and when they're available.

 

What surprised me most was the pass rushers being found in the 4th.  It seems like such a premium has been put on pass rushers recently that you have to draft them at the top of the 1st, but maybe the pure volume of them coming out of college has widened the pool?

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On 10/3/2019 at 1:40 AM, SteelCityColt said:

Short article but nice at a glance breakdown of where current NFL starters were drafted by position breakdown:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/where-nfl-starters-were-drafted-902/

Well, it appears that if you draft a....

RB in the 6th

OT in the 6th

OG in the 5th

OC in the 3rd

DT in the 6th

or

CB in the 4th

 

odds are you have an average 2.15% chance of (starter) success.

 

Remember when Kelly was drafted? I believe there were some comments that we could have gotten an adequate starter in the 3rd round. Well, likely not...

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I would also assume that supply has an affect.  I mean, there are some positions that there are 3-5 1st round talents in a particular draft, and "quality" starters or fringe starter/backup in 1st - 3rd round.  While other positions, you have 1 or 2 1st rd talent, then a HUGE dropoff in talent. 

  Quality Skill player types always seem to have more draft depth than say blu-collar trench-type guys, like linemen... at least at draft time.  Perhaps part is a higher perceived value of a skill player.  Their talents are easier to quantify.

  Then you add in "weak" drafts at a particular position which causes some reaching.

  This was an interesting read tho.

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