Daniel Jeremiah's Top 50 Draft Prospects 2.0

[NewColtsFan]

 

Jeremiah is out with his post-combine top-50 list.     7 names from 1.0 are gone replaced by 7 new names.     The old names are listed at the bottom....

 

More interesting observations.....      remember,  Jeremiah is a former NFL scout for 9 years.     He's got an eye for talent.

 

That said,   there's an art to stacking a board and not everyone is good at it....

 

Here it is!      Enjoy!

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000919918/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft-20

[DaveA1102]

Thanks NCF.

 

Its a tempting list from a Colts perspective with plenty of our needs available (although there are few positions we don't have needs!).

 

It does make me even more tempted to trade back due to the amount of quality that could be available in the 2nd round.

 

Players like DJ Moore, Nick Chubb, Isaiah Wynn, Mike McGlinchey all look solid prospects that would fit nicely into areas of need for us based on DJ's assessment and, being able to pick up two of these guys while trading back and still potentially getting Chubb (maybe unlikely) and, if not, Nelson, Edmunds or Fitzpatrick would make a real difference to the roster.

[krunk]

Seems to me that it may be possible for us to get Chubb and Key out of the same draft. Everybody keeps ranking Key in the second round. I still believe Key will go at the bottom of the 1st but we will see.

[stitches]

Do we really want Key, though? With all the red flags on him? 

[SolidGold]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Do we really want Key, though? With all the red flags on him? 

Yes. 

[krunk]

20 minutes ago, stitches said:

Do we really want Key, though? With all the red flags on him? 

I'm not sure anybody can say what his off the field red flags are. I hear people make those comments but I haven't seen where hes went to jail, suspended or kicked off the team for anything. I had to take a look myself because I was buying into it.

 

Biggest thing I could find was here http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_9a7e017c-9a54-11e7-9e1e-871e0624f42d.html

 

He had to step away from the game for a couple months for undisclosed personal and family related reasons. That to me is something that you vet to get a better understanding of what went on there. Outside of that I dont see any other issues on or off the field that you wouldn't see in any other 20-21 year old talent.

[jshipp23]

If Barkley isn't there at 3 I would love a trade back with Buffalo that nets us Hernandez, Bryan,  Vander Esch, and Landry or Key with our 2nd round pick included...Then hopefully we get St. Brown and Price in 3rd..I am assuming we get buffalo's 2nd and 3rd in this scenario..

[krunk]

Key addressed the leaving the team issue at the combine privately with the teams he interviewed with and says they responded positively. https://www.seccountry.com/lsu/lsus-arden-key-finally-addresses-the-media

[stitches]

9 minutes ago, krunk said:

I'm not sure anybody can say what his off the field red flags are. I hear people make those comments but I haven't seen where hes went to jail, suspended or kicked off the team for anything. I had to take a look myself because I was buying into it.

A lot of it is vague, but what I've heard people say is that he has similar issues to Randy Gregory. I've heard him described as Randy Gregory 2.0. He left the team last spring because of "personal issues" and didn't come back until the fall. He had also gained something like... 50 pounds in the meantime(this is coming from himself - he said he was 280 at some point during the summer). For comparison he was 238 at the combine. 

 

Here's an article where his father talks about it, but doesn't say what exactly the personal issue was. I think this is what many speculate was a drugs related problem and this is why they are putting the Randy Gregory label on him. 

 

Here's another article from last week about him facing GMs and NFL execs at the combine:

http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_d5d164a6-1e54-11e8-9115-434c411e1933.html

 

There still seems to be a lot of vagueries on the issue. Seems like he sought treatment for whatever he went through. The overwhelming hints are that it was drugs. 

 

Here's his dad:

 

Quote

“I told him to be truthful and let them know he made a mistake,” Arden Key Sr. said this week. “He’s a person that, like any other kid entering the draft, he’s proven he’s a high-character guy who’s made a few mistakes along the way. That’s the phase he went through, and he learned from it. He’s put that behind him."

 

According to anonymous sources whatever it was, him seeking treatment was the reason he missed spring and summer training... 

 

 

 

Quote

 

NFL.com polled five pro executives asking what prospect has the most riding on combine interviews. Two of the five picked Key.

“Key really needs to explain what happened last offseason and talk about where he is now,” one of the anonymous executives told NFL.com. "He was the biggest disappointment of the 2017 season."

 

 

Matt Miller suggests that it was indeed drugs by saying his drug test is one of the most important things he needs to clear at the combine:

 

Quote

“Those interviews and the drug test are the most important for him,” Miller said. “You've got to pass that test, and then you have to interview well.”

 

He also is saying his ideal weight is between 240 and 250 which would make him undersized for 43DE. 

 

Here's how the article finishes:

 

Quote

"I went through adversity," Key said. "Yes, I did make mistakes, bad decisions, but I’m past that. I’m the best pass rusher in the class. I can rush the passer, I can run-stop. I’m coachable, a people’s person, a loving, caring guy."

 

Where Key gets drafted will likely depend on his ability to convince teams he's put his issues behind him. 

 

There for certain are issues. The question is if he can make GMs believe they are behind him and there is low chance of recurrence... whatever it was. 

 

Now I'm not one of those people who wouldn't give a guy a second chance, whatever transgression he's had, but even if all of the red flags are cleared even on the field I'm not sure he can play DE. 

[NewEra]

I'm going to be happy with either of the three. Barkley, Chubb, Nelson

 

With Barkley we get a dynamic back who will help the offense.

 

With Chubb we add a really good piece to our strength on D, the line. Which then makes our backfield that much better.

 

with Nelson he helps make our front a force in the run game and pass blocking. He makes our backs better and keeps Luck off the ground. 

[krunk]

21 minutes ago, stitches said:

A lot of it is vague, but what I've heard people say is that he has similar issues to Randy Gregory. I've heard him described as Randy Gregory 2.0. He left the team last spring because of "personal issues" and didn't come back until the fall. He had also gained something like... 50 pounds in the meantime(this is coming from himself - he said he was 280 at some point during the summer). For comparison he was 238 at the combine. 

 

Here's an article where his father talks about it, but doesn't say what exactly the personal issue was. I think this is what many speculate was a drugs related problem and this is why they are putting the Randy Gregory label on him. 

 

Here's another article from last week about him facing GMs and NFL execs at the combine:

http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_d5d164a6-1e54-11e8-9115-434c411e1933.html

 

There still seems to be a lot of vagueries on the issue. Seems like he sought treatment for whatever he went through. The overwhelming hints are that it was drugs. 

 

Here's his dad:

 

 

According to anonymous sources whatever it was, him seeking treatment was the reason he missed spring and summer training... 

 

 

 

 

Matt Miller suggests that it was indeed drugs by saying his drug test is one of the most important things he needs to clear at the combine:

 

 

He also is saying his ideal weight is between 240 and 250 which would make him undersized for 43DE. 

 

Here's how the article finishes:

 

 

There for certain are issues. The question is if he can make GMs believe they are behind him and there is low chance of recurrence... whatever it was. 

 

Now I'm not one of those people who wouldn't give a guy a second chance, whatever transgression he's had, but even if all of the red flags are cleared even on the field I'm not sure he can play DE. 

Is there one solid shred of evidence to say it was drugs? Miller was speculating. Hes been vague with the public but the article says he told the teams he interviewed with exactly what went on. I'd be concerned or probably flat out move on if there was a real drug issue yes but I'm not certain we know that. I'm not sure he could have gotten away with going to a rehab without people knowing. I'm not all that concerned about his weight. Mathis got away with it for years. And there have been others when it comes to this type of scheme we run. Not saying we absolutely must take him but definitely worth giving a look see.

[Fisticuffs111]

I don't think I'd take Key in the 2nd. Even aside from his baggage/personal stuff, he's a boom or bust prospect and I think there will be better options.

If teams responded positively to his reasoning for leaving the team, great. I'm still concerned about his discipline. It seemed like he had a huge Sophomore year and got a big head/got lazy. The whole weight ballooning up, even if he has slimmed down (and now he's pretty small for a DE). Not to mention he struggled even after losing the weight. He had a lot of flukey, unblocked sacks. He's slithery, great first step, almost elusive. But he also struggles with handfighting, relies on that athleticism too much, and when a lineman gets a hold of him it's over. I just see a lot of bust potential there.

If we were in a 3-4 and missed out on Chubb, I'd be more inclined to take a chance. But I like the possible options at OL/RB/etc. more in the 2nd.

[stitches]

12 minutes ago, krunk said:

Is there one solid shred of evidence to say it was drugs? Miller was speculating

It's not just Miller. I've heard it by many people. What else could it be? Him and his father are talking about "a few mistakes" he's made. What could those be? What mistakes could he have made that would require him to leave his team and seek treatment? I don't feel like this is really a leap to make in connecting the dots. 

[krunk]

25 minutes ago, stitches said:

It's not just Miller. I've heard it by many people. What else could it be? Him and his father are talking about "a few mistakes" he's made. What could those be? What mistakes could he have made that would require him to leave his team and seek treatment? I don't feel like this is really a leap to make in connecting the dots. 

Speculation is not proof of anything. It could be totally baseless. They are speculating because there really wasnt much info available. They even touch on Tyrann Mathieu in the article and Key responded almost as if he were offended. He said I dont feel I need to talk to him about anything. Meaning our situations are not comparable at all in anyway. Everybody knows Matthieu had a drug issue. Whatever it is in sure the teams know now. If it ain't drugs and his answers on the subject are acceptable id do it. If it is drugs then id RUN!

[stitches]

12 minutes ago, krunk said:

Speculation is not proof of anything. It could be totally baseless. They are speculating because there really wasnt much info available. They even touch on Tyrann Mathieu in the article and Key responded almost as if he were offended. He said I dont feel I need to talk to him about anything. Meaning our situations are not comparable at all in anyway. Everybody knows Matthieu had a drug issue. Whatever it is in sure the teams know now. If it ain't drugs and his answers on the subject are acceptable id do it. If it is drugs then id RUN!

What if it was drugs and his answer satisfies you? For example, I don't hold it against him that he sought treatment if it was drugs. I actually would count that as a positive sign that he's addressing his issues rather than running from them and lying to himself or others that it was nothing to worry about. 

 

My bigger problem is with his fit at 43DE. I just can't see it at 240 pounds. This screams situational pass-rusher to me in this scheme. 

[krunk]

40 minutes ago, stitches said:

What if it was drugs and his answer satisfies you? For example, I don't hold it against him that he sought treatment if it was drugs. I actually would count that as a positive sign that he's addressing his issues rather than running from them and lying to himself or others that it was nothing to worry about. 

 

My bigger problem is with his fit at 43DE. I just can't see it at 240 pounds. This screams situational pass-rusher to me in this scheme. 

The weight is not that big of a problem to me. Mathis did it at that size for years. In all likelihood he well get about 250-255lbs in the league. Maybe even as high as 260. I do believe Bruce Irvin is about that big. Key has a bigger frame. I dont see him remaining at 240 regardless of scheme. Another good comp is Leonard Floyd who currently plays at 250lbs. I think Key is at 240 right now just for the combine and Pro Day.

[shasta519]

Jeremiah seems to be on the Kirk bandwagon. Going to be tough to get him on day two now.

[Fisticuffs111]

32 minutes ago, stitches said:

What if it was drugs and his answer satisfies you? For example, I don't hold it against him that he sought treatment if it was drugs. I actually would count that as a positive sign that he's addressing his issues rather than running from them and lying to himself or others that it was nothing to worry about. 

 

My bigger problem is with his fit at 43DE. I just can't see it at 240 pounds. This screams situational pass-rusher to me in this scheme. 

And if he does get bigger you begin to hurt his biggest strength, his quickness/burst. Because even after he lost all that weight in '17, and got to a respectable 255, he still looked noticeably slower.

I say this while also respecting Key's potential. I kinda see some Leonard Floyd in him. I just think there's more sure things at OL/RB/among other positions in the 2nd.

[krunk]

27 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

And if he does get bigger you begin to hurt his biggest strength, his quickness/burst. Because even after he lost all that weight in '17, and got to a respectable 255, he still looked noticeably slower.

I say this while also respecting Key's potential. I kinda see some Leonard Floyd in him. I just think there's more sure things at OL/RB/among other positions in the 2nd.

Leonard Floyd has been productive. I dont agree about Key being noticeably slower at 255, but everybody sees the same thing differently. I think 270 is too big for him yes.

[Jeremy Waldon]

What does everyone think of getting Nick Chubb, he has been compared to a young Frank Gore, and it seems his injury is not an issue anymore. I think him and Mack could be the future ground game for us

[Fisticuffs111]

31 minutes ago, krunk said:

Leonard Floyd has been productive. I dont agree about him being noticeably slower at 255, but everybody sees the same thing differently. I think 270 is too big for him yes.

Yeah, the Floyd comparison was meant as a compliment. IMO Key probably has a higher ceiling, especially in a 3-4. It's that floor I worry about.

[stitches]

28 minutes ago, Jeremy Waldon said:

What does everyone think of getting Nick Chubb, he has been compared to a young Frank Gore, and it seems his injury is not an issue anymore. I think him and Mack could be the future ground game for us

I really like him and I've compared him to younger Gore too. He also tested like a complete beast which was good to see.  

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, stitches said:

What if it was drugs and his answer satisfies you? For example, I don't hold it against him that he sought treatment if it was drugs. I actually would count that as a positive sign that he's addressing his issues rather than running from them and lying to himself or others that it was nothing to worry about. 

 

My bigger problem is with his fit at 43DE. I just can't see it at 240 pounds. This screams situational pass-rusher to me in this scheme. 

 

I heard Key interviewed on NFL radio at the combine.      Says he got up to 280.    Says he's now down to 238.

 

But he added he thinks his best playing weight will be...    250.   

 

I'll be diplomatic and say when his football career is over....   Key will NOT be a public speaker.

 

I was not impressed.