My Numbers Say We Are In Really Good Cap Shape For 2012

[Superman]

It's all supply and demand. And that is the market in which the Colts will be shopping.

Some teams are willing to pony up $11.4 to tag a mediocre to good WR.

I don't think Garcon is mediocre to good yet. Almost, but not quite there yet.

4 years at $30MM is $7.5 average annual compensation.

I think his average annual should be more like $9MM. If you think it is too rich, we can extend it 5 or 6 years. He is still youngish at 25 years old.

You can do six years, $45 million with a player option after Year 4. That way, we keep the $7.5 million average until he earns more (I don't even really think he's earned that so far), and then he can opt out when he's 29/30 (birthday in August) and in his earning prime. But then we'd probably have to go with a higher signing bonus, which >>>s our cap up.

I really think your $9 million/year is too high for Garcon. I don't think he'd get that on the open market, and I don't think any other team in the NFL would franchise tag him based on what he's done. As you said, I don't think he's mediocre/good yet. He's pretty firmly in mediocre if you ask me.

But yeah, we'll see.

[UndecidedFrog]

I had him at five million a season and I think that's just right. 4 year 20 million, 8 bonus.

No way! Maybe 6 years 30 million but he's not worth more, he's not a number one receiver!

LOL, Why would he do the 6 years at the same average annual comp? He is young. If you are only going to pay him $5 per season, he doesn't want to be tied to a 6, or even a 4, he will maybe give you a 3 year deal, depending on demand and NBA.

[Superman]

If he will agree to the exact same contract that he was cut from just recently. I hear CBs are at a premium this year. That will eat into your FA spending by about $6.53, which leaves you with $12.05 to spend on a QB2 and a SS.

He just signed for that contract with the Chiefs. $6 million in Year 1.

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2012/02/20/ap-source-chiefs-routt-reach-3-yr-16m-deal/

LOL, if we all had the benefit of hindsight....shoulda, coulda, woulda.

Yep, but not a wild "we coulda had [insert whoever the hottest free agent was]" kind of situation. We were reportedly ::thisclose:: to signing Whitner. And I was a big advocate of letting Addai walk last offseason. But yeah, hindsight is 20/20.

[UndecidedFrog]

He just signed for that contract with the Chiefs. $6 million in Year 1.

http://www.foxnews.c...-3-yr-16m-deal/

Yep, but not a wild "we coulda had [insert whoever the hottest free agent was]" kind of situation. We were reportedly ::thisclose:: to signing Whitner. And I was a big advocate of letting Addai walk last offseason. But yeah, hindsight is 20/20.

Sorry, yes, you're right. I thought it was the old Raider contract. Do you know what the Raider contract was?

NM, I found it......5 years, 54.4MM....10.88 a season. Yikes. He agreed to the lesser deal because of the bonus monies the Raiders owe him ($5MM) and the bonus monies the Chiefs will pay him ($4mm) ...making him one of the 3 highest paid CBs in 2012.

And he isn't a shut-down corner.

[Superman]

Sorry, yes, you're right. I thought it was the old Raider contract. Do you know what the Raider contract was?

Three years, $31.5 million, according to the link below. They still owe him $5 million this year.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81e74121/article/raiders-keep-cb-routt-with-threeyear-contract-extension

[UndecidedFrog]

Three years, $31.5 million, according to the link below. They still owe him $5 million this year.

http://www.nfl.com/n...tract-extension

I think the Raiders are the key team that is responsible for wage inflation.

[Superman]

I think the Raiders are the key team that is responsible for wage inflation.

Yup. Nnamdi, Routt, Russell, McFadden... I'm sure I'm leaving a couple out.

[UndecidedFrog]

Yup. Nnamdi, Routt, Russell, McFadden... I'm sure I'm leaving a couple out.

Nnamdi is making $12 a year with the Eagles. Yikes.

[BmoreColt]

LOL, Why would he do the 6 years at the same average annual comp? He is young. If you are only going to pay him $5 per season, he doesn't want to be tied to a 6, or even a 4, he will maybe give you a 3 year deal, depending on demand and NBA.

I don't think he's worth that kind of money..

[UndecidedFrog]

I don't think he's worth that kind of money..

LOL, I kind of figured that out.

[BmoreColt]

LOL, I kind of figured that out.

Lol.. Maybe I am undervaluing him but I would try to get he and Wayne back as cheap as possible. I think 5 million is solid for garçon, it's a huge pay raise.. Your putting him at mike Wallace money and he's nowhere near that good!

[Superman]

Nnamdi is making $12 a year with the Eagles. Yikes.

That's $3 million less than he was making with the Raiders.

[UndecidedFrog]

Lol.. Maybe I am undervaluing him but I would try to get he and Wayne back as cheap as possible. I think 5 million is solid for garçon, it's a huge pay raise.. Your putting him at mike Wallace money and he's nowhere near that good!

We'll see soon enough. Right now there seems to be an oversupply of WRs in FA. However, there is still time for teams to tag or re-sign some of them. I think a key indicator will be how much Colston and Meachem take. I think Garcon will be the average of those 2.

[UndecidedFrog]

That's $3 million less than he was making with the Raiders.

Yea, who wants to be a WR, when you can make CB money?

[Superman]

Lol.. Maybe I am undervaluing him but I would try to get he and Wayne back as cheap as possible. I think 5 million is solid for garçon, it's a huge pay raise.. Your putting him at mike Wallace money and he's nowhere near that good!

That's a good comparison, actually, but Mike Wallace hasn't been given a new contract yet.Wherever he hits, Garcon ought to be below that.

[UndecidedFrog]

That's a good comparison, actually, but Mike Wallace hasn't been given a new contract yet.Wherever he hits, Garcon ought to be below that.

Check out DHB's current contract with the Raiders. He is probably right where you want Garcon to be at average annual around $7.65.

Talent wise, I think DHB is better than Garcon, but then DHB has durability issues.

[Superman]

Check out DHB's current contract with the Raiders. He is probably right where you want Garcon to be at average annual around $7.65.

Talent wise, I think DHB is better than Garcon, but then DHB has durability issues.

That's a rookie contract, so I didn't use it. Bot it is pretty much right on, just an extra year.

[BlueShoe]

I have different data.

My source for contract data :

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/dwight-freeney/

So far, I have:

1) 31 players on 2012 roster that account for $88.59MM towards the 2012 salary cap. This assumes PM at current contract.

2) 15 FAs who are off-contract in 2012. They are:

Anderson, Brayton, Diem, Foster, Garcon, Gonzales, Lacey, Mathis, Muir, Richard, Saturday, Tamme, Toudouze, Wayne and Wheeler.

Currently, they account for $0 to the 2012 cap.

I don't have the past contract information for Hill, Pollak, and Simms. Can you please provide them to me?

3) I think I can safely cut Painter from the roster, leaving 30 players for 2012, and $88.02MM toward the 2012 salary cap.

4) I think I can safely add the #1 draft pick QB, and a QB3 at league minimum to replace Painter, giving us 32 players for 2012 and $92.62MM to the cap.

5) Add in the remaining 21 players to fill out the 53-man roster, at league minimum, and we have 52 players for 2012 and $100.81MM to the cap.

Yes, we are about $20MM under the cap, assuming we don't sign any FAs (including our 15 FAs listed in item 2 above).

Last year, these 15 FAs accounted for $34.94MM to the 2011 cap.

So you see that there will have to be some hard decisions that need to be made to accommodate most or some of these FA re-signs that you may want to do.

You will have to juggle which FAs to not re-sign, or find extra cap space by restructuring current players on contract (like PM and Freeney).

I am trying to figure out where you are disagreeing with me. ;)

I get my numbers from several different sources.

Bottom line is that we are close to 20 million under the cap without doing anything except signing the league min vets to fill the roster. Anything we do on top of that would just be a guess at this time.

[UndecidedFrog]

I am trying to figure out where you are disagreeing with me. ;)

I get my numbers from several different sources.

Bottom line is that we are close to 20 million under the cap without doing anything except signing the league min vets to fill the roster. Anything we do on top of that would just be a guess at this time.

I don't disagree with you.

We are $20MM under the cap if we let our 15FAs walk:

Anderson, Brayton, Diem, Foster, Garcon, Gonzales, Lacey, Mathis, Muir, Richard, Saturday, Tamme, Toudouze, Wayne and Wheeler.

[BlueShoe]

I don't disagree with you.

We are $20MM under the cap if we let our 15FAs walk:

Anderson, Brayton, Diem, Foster, Garcon, Gonzales, Lacey, Mathis, Muir, Richard, Saturday, Tamme, Toudouze, Wayne and Wheeler.

And that is what I said from the start of this thread. ;)

[wercolts]

Get Wallace

[Superman]

OK, you will let me know when to add him in. So far in your mock cap, he walks.

...

Those values are better, although I still think you are light on both of them, Garcon more light than Tamme.

Consider your proposed contract for Garcon, which averages annual compensation at $7.5MM real dollars, and compare this against the similar statistic for a WR at his level coming into his prime years.

OK, with the new Tamme and Garcon numbers, your mock cap is now at $101.41MM and with the incrementals for picks #34 ($1MM) and #65 ($0.5MM), your new cap is now at $102.91MM. So you have $18.19MM to spend on FAs which you have identified above as QB2, CB and SS. On top of that you are hoping to net a WR and a TE from the campers, and you hope to use your 9 draft picks (including your compensatories) to pick up Luck, WR. TE, RB, 2LBS, CB, SS and either an OG or an OC.

I think it will be tight, but doable.

I don't think you can add PM back in this scenario.

Now that we have Mathis' new contract, let's make some adjustments. I'll run the numbers, and you can let me know if I miss anything.

QB: Release Manning. Draft Luck. Sign veteran backup. Offer Manning three years, $40 million, $12m signing bonus. Base salaries of $5m, $10m, $13m, 2012 cap hit of $19.4m (including dead cap space from previous contract).

WR: Let Garcon and Wayne walk. Sign Robert Meachem for three years, $15 million, with a $4.5 million signing bonus. Base salaries of $1.75m, $3.5m, $5.25m. Meachem's 2012 cap hit is $3.25m, total compensation in 2012 of $6.25m. Draft a WR at some point, possession receiver preferred. Resign Gonzo to league minimum deal for one year. Gives us Meachem, Collie, White, Gonzo, rookie.

TE: Release/trade Clark (saves $1.74m in 2012). Resign Jacob Tamme for four years, $15 million, with a $4 million signing bonus. Base salaries of $1.5m, $2.25m, $3m, $4.25m. 2012 cap hit is $2.5m, total compensation in 2012 of $5.5m. Draft a TE in later rounds, and sign one in free agency to a league minimum deal for one year (cap hits for those two should be about $800k in 2012). Gives us Tamme, Eldridge, rookie, free agent.

RB: Release Addai (saves $1m in 2012). Sign a veteran in secondary free agency to a league minimum deal for one year. Gives us Brown, Carter, Evans, Gronkowski (FB), vet.

DE: Release/trade Freeney (saves $14m in 2012). Resigned Mathis. Resign Anderson for one year, $1 million. Draft five-tech end, probably in second or third round. Gives us Mathis, Hughes, Anderson, rookie. May need more depth, but will worry about that later.

LB: Release Brackett. Resign Wheeler for two years, $6 million, $2 million signing bonus. Base salaries of $1.5m and $2.5m, total compensation in 2012 of $3.5m. Gives us Conner, Angerer, Wheeler, coming back for depth in secondary free agency. Not using a draft pick here because I expect Pagano and Manusky to be flexible with Mathis and Hughes. The rest of the players at DE/LB are mostly special teamers, so UDFAs and camp invites.

DB: Draft a corner in mid rounds. Let Lacey walk, of course. Gives us Powers, Thomas, Rucker, rookie. Come back for depth.

S: Draft a safety in late rounds. Release Bullit. Gives us Bethea, Lefeged, Caldwell, Hines, rookie.

Free agency: I want a strong safety, so if one is available (I like Rashad Johnson from Arizona, a reserve who filled in nicely when Adrian Wilson was out hurt. He's an RFA, and I doubt he'd get a very high tender from the Cardinals, if one at all), offer him a moderate contract, like three years, $10 million, $4 million signing bonus.

Draft: I've used at least five draft picks up above. Assuming we get compensatories for Session and Johnson, we have four more draft picks to use on offensive linemen and a defensive tackle, and maybe a linebacker. If we could trade Freeney and/or Clark, add a pick or three.

I think I can round out the entire roster for under $110 million in 2012, including draft picks. And we've paid about $40 million in signing bonuses.

[UndecidedFrog]

OKay, I've updated your mock draft, and you now have a roster of 41 players (without what you were vague about on the Draft section of your blurb above) and a total cap cost of $110.18MM, after I have rounded it up to 53 players at rookie league minimum.

Bad news, rumor now is that the 2012 cap will be slightly smaller than 2011. Therefore my projected cap of $121.1 is now at $119.0..

That means you now have only $8.82MM to play with.

You have let the following FAs walk:

Brayton, Diem, Foster, Garcon, Lacey, Muir, Orlovsky, Richard, Saturday, Toudouze, Wayne.

You have cut the following players from the roster:

Manning, Freeney, Bullitt, Brackett, Addai, Clark, Painter.

You have signed the following FAs:

Manning, Mathis, Tamme, Gonzo, Meachem, Anderson, Wheeler, a Routt-like CB, a TE, a vet RB.

You have drafted:

Luck, QB3, a late round TE, a 5tDE in the 2nd round, a mid round CB, and a late round S

[Superman]

OKay, I've updated your mock draft, and you now have a roster of 41 players (without what you were vague about on the Draft section of your blurb above) and a total cap cost of $110.18MM, after I have rounded it up to 53 players at rookie league minimum.

Bad news, rumor now is that the 2012 cap will be slightly smaller than 2011. Therefore my projected cap of $121.1 is now at $119.0..

That means you now have only $8.82MM to play with.

You have let the following FAs walk:

Brayton, Diem, Foster, Garcon, Lacey, Muir, Orlovsky, Richard, Saturday, Toudouze, Wayne.

You have cut the following players from the roster:

Manning, Freeney, Bullitt, Brackett, Addai, Clark, Painter.

You have signed the following FAs:

Manning, Mathis, Tamme, Gonzo, Meachem, Anderson, Wheeler, a Routt-like CB, a TE, a vet RB.

You have drafted:

Luck, QB3, a late round TE, a 5tDE in the 2nd round, a mid round CB, and a late round S

Quibbles: not signing a corner, and only drafting one QB (Luck).

I didn't hear that the cap was rumored to go down. That's strange. What revenue did the NFL lose?

[UndecidedFrog]

Quibbles: not signing a corner, and only drafting one QB (Luck).

I didn't hear that the cap was rumored to go down. That's strange. What revenue did the NFL lose?

OKay, I've updated your mock draft, taking your quibble into account and cutting that Routt-like CB. You now have a roster of 40 players (without what you were vague about on the Draft section of your blurb above) and a total cap cost of $104.04MM, after I have rounded it up to 53 players at rookie league minimum.

That means you now have only $14.96MM to play with.

We won't know for sure what the 2012 cap will be until the NFL publishes it, but from FJC, I hear it will be slightly less than the 2011 cap.

BTW, I think the following moves are high risk and you may have to pay more to get them:

Meachem

FA SS

FA TE

Anderson

Gonzo

[Superman]

OKay, I've updated your mock draft, taking your quibble into account and cutting that Routt-like CB. You now have a roster of 40 players (without what you were vague about on the Draft section of your blurb above) and a total cap cost of $104.04MM, after I have rounded it up to 53 players at rookie league minimum.

That means you now have only $14.96MM to play with.

We won't know for sure what the 2012 cap will be until the NFL publishes it, but from FJC, I hear it will be slightly less than the 2011 cap.

BTW, I think the following moves are high risk and you may have to pay more to get them:

Meachem

FA SS

FA TE

Anderson

Gonzo

I'll look out for more info on the cap. I know they haven't released the numbers yet, but everything I've read has said it's going up slightly. That's a significant change if it's going down. Still not that big of a deal, but that's surprising.

I think Meachem is going to be fairly cost-effective, and maybe there's a little more wiggle room there, but I don't know how much more than $5m/year he's going to get from anyone. And if he wants that much, I doubt he'll get it from the Saints. But we can go with a different second-tier veteran receiver, or pay a little more to get Garcon back on board. Even a guy like Ted Ginn would be nice, since he can return kicks, but I'm very flexible here.

FA safety, I'm looking at a second-tier guy who isn't even a starter in the NFL, and would be getting starter money. The Cardinals won't give it to him. This kind of player usually signs within the division, but we could step in and grab him, or anyone else like him. But no more than $4m/year on a multi-year contract, unless a a high-level guy like Brandon Carr wants to come to the Colts, in which case I'd abandon some of that $14 million in wiggle room. NFC West has some nice safeties.

I don't see how Anderson or Gonzo will be getting more from any other team. Anderson came crawling to us for $1.3 million, so I guess maybe we'd have to increase that a small bit, but he didn't do anything to distinguish himself. Gonzo is a good receiver when healthy, but I can't imagine, with such a deep receiver pool in free agency and in the draft that he gets any serious coin. Steve Smith (NYG/PHI) got one year, $4 million last season, coming off weird injuries, and didn't do anything. I really don't think Gonzo will get any serious offers.

But yeah, even with some adjustments and wiggling, we're still coming in $10-15 million below the cap. And that's with the unlikely proposition of resigning Manning. Even if you replace his cap hit with Freeney's, we're still good. But we have to do something with Freeney, right? Can't carry him all season at $19 million.

[UndecidedFrog]

I'll look out for more info on the cap. I know they haven't released the numbers yet, but everything I've read has said it's going up slightly. That's a significant change if it's going down. Still not that big of a deal, but that's surprising.

I think Meachem is going to be fairly cost-effective, and maybe there's a little more wiggle room there, but I don't know how much more than $5m/year he's going to get from anyone. And if he wants that much, I doubt he'll get it from the Saints. But we can go with a different second-tier veteran receiver, or pay a little more to get Garcon back on board. Even a guy like Ted Ginn would be nice, since he can return kicks, but I'm very flexible here.

FA safety, I'm looking at a second-tier guy who isn't even a starter in the NFL, and would be getting starter money. The Cardinals won't give it to him. This kind of player usually signs within the division, but we could step in and grab him, or anyone else like him. But no more than $4m/year on a multi-year contract, unless a a high-level guy like Brandon Carr wants to come to the Colts, in which case I'd abandon some of that $14 million in wiggle room. NFC West has some nice safeties.

I don't see how Anderson or Gonzo will be getting more from any other team. Anderson came crawling to us for $1.3 million, so I guess maybe we'd have to increase that a small bit, but he didn't do anything to distinguish himself. Gonzo is a good receiver when healthy, but I can't imagine, with such a deep receiver pool in free agency and in the draft that he gets any serious coin. Steve Smith (NYG/PHI) got one year, $4 million last season, coming off weird injuries, and didn't do anything. I really don't think Gonzo will get any serious offers.

But yeah, even with some adjustments and wiggling, we're still coming in $10-15 million below the cap. And that's with the unlikely proposition of resigning Manning. Even if you replace his cap hit with Freeney's, we're still good. But we have to do something with Freeney, right? Can't carry him all season at $19 million.

Well, with the PM news tomorrow, I will adjust to find you even more wiggle room. You might get Freeney back on an extension.

[UndecidedFrog]

I'll look out for more info on the cap. I know they haven't released the numbers yet, but everything I've read has said it's going up slightly. That's a significant change if it's going down. Still not that big of a deal, but that's surprising.

Found something that sort of explains the possibility of a smaller salary cap for 2012. This article is dated March 6.

http://www.thephinsi...cap-free-agency

"The problem arises from two realities. Under the new CBA, players receive a finite number (47 percent of specifically defined revenues) to cover both salaries and benefits. But the costs of the benefits have increased, driving more of the allocation away from salaries.

"And so, for roughly a week, the NFLPA has been trying to re-do the numbers in order to trim back the benefit costs and in turn drive up the salary cap."

[Superman]

Well, with the PM news tomorrow, I will adjust to find you even more wiggle room. You might get Freeney back on an extension.

*$^#!@

We just cleared up an additional $9 million off my mock cap from above. I can now get a little more aggressive in courting a free agent safety, and maybe getting some help at guard/center.

But this suuuuuucks.

[UndecidedFrog]

*$^#!@

We just cleared up an additional $9 million off my mock cap from above. I can now get a little more aggressive in courting a free agent safety, and maybe getting some help at guard/center.

But this suuuuuucks.

I cut Manning, and now you have $95.43 against the smaller $119 cap.

Therefore, you have $23.57 to play with.