Double A Breakdown: Week 2 vs Miami Dolphins

[Andy]

Double A Breakdown: Week 2 vs Dolphins

 

What the Colts have to do to win

The Colts have to do many things well in order to win this game. 

The first thing they have to do on offense is avoid leaving drives on the field. By that, I mean that they can’t lose important drives due to conservativeness and being predictable. Last week, I found at certain times, especially in the late 2^nd and the entire 3^rd quarter, the Colts became too conservative. I don’t mind running the ball, I think the Colts have to run the ball, they can’t run the ball on 1^st and 2^nd down for 3 or 4 straight drives, because it becomes more and more predictable. They have to mix it up more. Some drives, they should pass it more, and run it more. They can’t just do the same thing over and over again, and that’s something I didn’t like last week. They need to be more unpredictable.

As for Andrew Luck, he had a mistake free flawless game last week. Under the boundaries that he was in, he did a very good job. He needs to do that again. He just needs to be accurate and avoid mistakes. He needs to pick the right targets and make the correct reads. He doesn’t have to do anything overly great to win. He saved the Colts last week, and I hope he doesn’t save them this week. He shouldn’t have to save the Colts week after week; it’s not a good sign going forward (for the team that is). Lastly on Luck, I would like to see the coaches give him more control of the offense. Last week he only had 23 passes. I just said before that I don’t want the Colts to overly rely on him, but I mean, give the best player on the team the ball more than 23 times. Let him do some changes on the field too. Last week, the coaches strictly controlled the game, and it shouldn’t always be like that.

The running game will have to be important in this game. To not overly rely on Luck, they’ll need to have a running game going. Vick Ballard is out for the year, which means that it’s up to Ahmad Bradshaw (for the most part) and Donald Brown… but it’s mostly Bradshaw. The Dolphins were able to stop Trent Richardson last week, but that was because of a terrible game plan. The Colts need to give the running game a chance. Let them do inside runs with Bradshaw, and try the outside stuff with Brown. I’d like to see a 70/30 split between Bradshaw and Brown. They have to mix it up with different styles to keep these guys on their feet.

It would be nice to see receivers not named Reggie Wayne step up. Last week, no one really stepped up and kind of hurt them in the passing game. If they shut down Reggie Wayne, which is not impossible, they Colts will be in trouble. That means that TY Hilton and Darrius Heyward Bey need to show up and be ready to be targeted several times EACH.

Now we get to the most important unit in this game: the offensive line. They have a very hard test this week. They’ll be going up against Cameron Wake, a 12+ sack guy each year who had 2.5 sacks last week, and Dion Jordan, a nemesis of Luck who is a highly touted rookie. It’s pretty obvious they’re going to able to get pressure on Luck, it’s the O-lines duty to contain that amount of pressure. They can’t let it get out of control. They won’t be able to shut it down completely, unless they put 7 blockers on each play, and that’s not going to happen. They have to have 6 blockers on each play, with that 6^th guy being a tight end or a running back, and letting that extra guy focus on the most dangerous player that game. If Wake is having himself a crazy guy, double-team him. If it’s Jordan, then double team him, and the same for Starks and Soliai. This is a scary top 7 defensive line that cannot be ignored and if the Colts want to win they’re going to have to contain them.

Lastly on offense, I’d like to point out that this is a better Dolphins defense that what the Colts faced last year and it will definitely be a stiffer test. They have some playmakers in the secondary and a monster on the defensive line, so the coaches have to watch out.

Now we switch to defense.

Week in and week out, the defensive line is usually asked to do two things: clog up the inside runs and occasionally get pressure on the quarterback. Well, they’re going to have to do that this week. The Dolphins like to run to the outside quite a bit, but they will go up the middle with Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller, so when that happens, they’ll have to stuff it. It’s a must that they don’t establish a running game early. Last week they tried to, failed and went away from the run, so the Colts should have that game plan. In terms of pressure, Cory Redding and Ricky Jean Francois have decent matchups against Richie Incognito, Mike Pouncey and John Jerry. Mike Pouncey will take on the nose tackle with some double team help from (most likely) John Jerry. Incognito can take on Francois by himself, but I still like Francois’ odds. Incognito is a bit overrated and was beat a few times last week by the Browns’ D-line. I really like Cory Redding’s odds against John Jerry and he should be able to get some pressure on Tannehill.

As for the linebackers, they’ll be the most important unit on defense. The inside linebackers are responsible for following the running game and shutting it down. As mentioned earlier, if they stop it early, the Dolphins are going to tend to start passing more. Those inside linebackers should try and focus on the run. The outside linebackers are going to be crucially important. Not only are they going to HAVE TO get pressure on Tannehill, but they will have to play contain. They struggled mightily against contain last week and were constantly beat by Pryor to the outside. The Dolphins won’t do the read option as much, but the run the ball to the outside quite a bit, and that’s where the outside linebackers will need to show up. They have to stop them at the line. THEY NEED TO PLAY CONTAIN!!! 

The secondary should have a gameplan similar to the one they had last week: play off and be wary. Mike Wallace is dangerous, especially on deep passing plays, so Vontae Davis will have to watch out. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to put Antoine Bethea deep on 3rd downs to be that extra guy covering him. He’s hurt the Colts in the past and it would be bad if he hurt them again. Another guy to watch out for is Brian Hartline who had a game and a half last week. Greg Toler will have his hands full with him. He’s a guy that could be you deep or beat you short. He’s very underrated and could cause problems for the Colts. From watching what works and what doesn’t against Hartline, it seems that medium zone coverage from the cornerbacks and the safety playing deep seems to work well. That way it stops the intermediate routes and takes away the long ball, only leaving open the short passes, which he doesn’t tend to run too often. It’s going to be tricky trying to stop these receivers as they all have different skill sets, whereas the Raiders last week all had very similar skill sets.

Finally on defense, I’d like to say that blitzing often actually hurts the defense. Last week, when the Colts played off it worked better, and when they blitzed it actually hurt them even more. Maybe it’s because Pryor is a run first quarterback, but the point of a blitz is to get pressure and they didn’t get any. If the Colts can’t get any pressure blitzing early on, I recommend they go away from it. 

Overall, they need to be smart/wary and unpredictable to win this game. 

 

 

What the Dolphins have to do to win

On offense, the Dolphins have to play a mistake free game. They should only take shots down the field when there’s something there. They should have a more conservative balance game plan. Something that worked last week and really hurt the Colts was the read option. The Dolphins utilize it, although not as much as the Raiders. They should try and use it as it worked last week. However, they shouldn’t use it that often. Establishing a running game and using the play action pass is a game plan they should go after. They did it last week and they handily picked apart a good defense. The Dolphins have to stay smart.

On defense, the most important thing should be getting pressure on Andrew Luck. The Dolphins blitzed more times than any other team last week against the Browns and they were able to force 3 interceptions. Now Luck is better than Weeden, but if you get pressure on Luck, he is bound to make mistakes. He’s not perfect… yet. So, to get pressure on Luck, this must involve blitzes from Ellerbe and Wheeler. They have to get to those guys. On top of those guys, Cameron Wake and Dion Jordan need to bring pressure from the outside. They have relatively good matchups against Anthony Castonzo and Gosder Cherilus (or Hugh Thornton). They need to get pressure early on against Luck. Paul Soliai and Randy Starks have to plug up the middle and stop the inside runs. If they can get pressure on Luck, that would definitely slow down their offense. They can’t win by just running the ball. 

On top of getting pressure, they should try and have a safety watching Reggie Wayne. There’s already one cornerback on Reggie Wayne, but we saw last week that that’s not enough. They should try and have Chris Clemens or Reshad Jones on him. He can have a monster game if left in single coverage. 

So, to recap on defense, they need to pressure Luck by doing blitzing and using their defensive ends, and they should try and stop Reggie Wayne by using a safety to stay in his area.

 

 

Intriguing Matchup

The most intriguing matchup has to be Cameron Wake vs Gosder Cherilus/Hugh Thornton. I say both of them because Gosder Cherilus and Hugh Thornton both played at right tackle last game (while the other played at guard). The winner of this matchup will have a huge impact on the game. If Cameron Wake wins, he’ll be able to get a lot of pressure on Luck and that could hurt his game. If Cherilus/Thornton wins, they’ll be able to shut down one of the most dominant pass rushers in the league.

 

 

Bold Statement

The Colts and Dolphins will combine for more than 8 sacks.

 

 

Prediction

Indianapolis Colts 27 vs Miami Dolphins 23

[SolomonThomasFanAccount]

did mcglynn play at all or did he get hurt ,was Thornton an extra blocker

[T Y Goodbye]

Great analysis, as usual, however, you stated that TY and DHB need to show up and be ready. TY needs to be in the game a lot more often and targeted more. If they double Reggie, which they might TY and DHB should have a field day...run a few reverses, and bubble screens and let TY do what he does best...then let him and DHB fly down each sideline, opening the middle for Reggie and stone hands Fleener..Fleener is the one that really needs to step up this week...imho..

 

I agree, this is not going to be an easy game what so ever..With New England struggling, the Phins believe they have a chance to win the East..and they will be coming at us hard and fast...I still think we win, but Luck needs to get the time to throw, and get the ball into the play maker's hands.

[superrep1967]

Great analysis, as usual, however, you stated that TY and DHB need to show up and be ready. TY needs to be in the game a lot more often and targeted more. If they double Reggie, which they might TY and DHB should have a field day...run a few reverses, and bubble screens and let TY do what he does best...then let him and DHB fly down each sideline, opening the middle for Reggie and stone hands Fleener..Fleener is the one that really needs to step up this week...imho..

 

I agree, this is not going to be an easy game what so ever..With New England struggling, the Phins believe they have a chance to win the East..and they will be coming at us hard and fast...I still think we win, but Luck needs to get the time to throw, and get the ball into the play maker's hands.

Agreed!