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Indianapolis (+9) @ New England


oldunclemark

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I don't like to talk in absolutes when predicting games (so much can turn on things that the teams have no control over), but I like the Colts' chances in this game. I expect a Colt win. All of the predictors' arguments seem to be predicated on the notion that the Patriots' offense will overwhelm the Colts' D. However, no one has made any kind of argument of why the Colts' offense won't overwhelm the Patriots' D. You want to explain NE's game at home against Buffalo last week? Key stats:

Yards per rush: NE 4.0, Buff 5.8.

Yards per pass: NE 5.9, Buff 7.4

Net passing yards: NE 230, Buff 319

Total yards: NE 347, Buff 481

Why did NE win? These stats:

Turnovers: NE 0, Buff 3

Penalties/yards: NE 7/73, Buff 14/148

And those penalties are already built into the yardage numbers above. Bottom line is that NE got its butt kicked at home by the 3-6 Bills, but the Bills gave it away. The Colts have a better offense and defense than Buffalo, and Indy probably has superior motivation at this time. Bilechick will probably tear his team a new one after that Buffalo debacle, but the Colts want to make a statement and move farther up in the playoff hunt. Plus, they're playing for Chuck, and Luck is learning more and more each game. These teams are going in different directions, and I doubt NE's defense will be able to slow down the Colts enough to win...

My prediction: Indy 38, NE 28.

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We will score on them but I think this is a game that New England is looking to add as a signature win.

I think it's the opposite. This is a game the Colts want to add as a signature win. The Pats should be scared to death that a rookie QB is going to light them up! It's almost a no-win situation for them. If they win...well, the Pats should beat a rookie QB at home 100% of the time. If they lose, then the critics pile on even more. Belichick better have one of his master gameplans, because if Fitzpatrick can do it, then the Patriot D should get embarassed by Luck

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This is a weird game...I could see us getting blown out as easily as I could see us pulling the upset. We're not consistent on the road, and New England hasn't played consistent ball, either.

That, ladies and germs, is why they play the game. I wouldn't put $5 on this one either way.

I agree I wouldn't put 5 cents on this game but if they didn't blow us out last year in their house then I suspect they won't dominate us with their D and thus we will score enough to at least be within striking diatance.

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