The Houston/Indy SOV tiebreak explained

[DalTXColtsFan]

I'll spew the raw data and then summarize it at the end.

 

Obviously, if Houston goes 2-0 they're in the playoffs.  But come on, does anyone really think they're going to beat Tennessee in Tennessee *and* beat Jacksonville at home with Brandon Weeden as their quarterback?  I won't be surprised if they go 0-2 in that stretch quite frankly.  But let's assume they're going to split those games.  If they split, Indy has to go 8-8 *and* clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker to win the division (head to head, overall record, division record and conference record will be the same for both teams regardless of which game Houston loses).

 

Strength of victory is won-loss percentage of teams you beat.  If you beat a team twice you get to count them twice.  Since both Houston and Indy would end up with 8 wins, the percentage is mathematically equivalent to the total.

 

Indianapolis

Jax - 5 (finishes against @NO and @Hou)
Hou - 7 (finishes against @Tenn and Jax)
Tenn - 3 (finishes against Hou and @Ind)
Atl - 7 (finishes against Car and NO)
TB - 6 (finishes against Chi and @Car)
Den - 11 (finishes against Cincy and SD)

(39 subtotal)

 

Mia - 5 (finishes against Indy and @NE)
Tenn

 

Houston

TB - 6
Jax - 5
Tenn - 3
Cin - 11 (finishes @Den and Balt)
Jets - 9 (finish NE and @Buf)
Saints - 5 (finishes against Jax and @Atl)
Colts - 6 (finishes @Mia and Ten)

(45 subtotal)

 

Ten
Jax

 

So right now, Houston is ahead of Indianapolis 45 to 39.  If Indy wins out their total would go to 47, but Houston's would ALSO go to 47 plus whichever of their last 2 games they win because their win against Indy suddenly got a little stronger.

 

If Houston beats Jacksonville, that puts them ahead 52 to 48 (because Indy's win over Houston got stonger), and if Jacksonville beats New Orleans it puts them up 54 to 48, and if NO beats Jacksonville it puts them up 53 to 48. You can see that this would put strength of victory out of reach because there's no way for the Colts to recoup more than 5 points without also giving points to Houston.  Even if Denver and Atlanta win out and Miami beats New England, that's still 53 to 53 and even then they'd need Cincinnati to lose to Baltimore and the Jets to lose to both NE and Buffalo before we'd even move on to the next tiebreak (strength of schedule).

 

If Houston beats Tennessee, that puts them ahead 50 to 48 by similar logic.  Each additional Atlanta, Denver and Miami win gives the Colts an additional point.  Each additional Cincinnati, NYJ and NO win gives Houston an additional point.  I could see Denver winning out and Atlanta beating NO putting us ahead 51-50, but then we'd need the Jets to lose out and Cincinnati to lose to Baltimore otherwise Houston would be right back in the lead.

 

SO IN SUMMARY, if Houston beats Jacksonville they're in the playoffs.  If they beat Tennessee and LOSE to Jacksonville, then if Indy can win out they have a very faint glimmer of hope.

[DalTXColtsFan]

Here's the crazy thing:  The strength of schedule tiebreak could end up in a tie!

 

Common opponents:

each other (2)

Jax (2)

Tenn (2)

AFC East (4)

NFC south (4)

 

Houston played Cincy and KC while we played Pittsburgh and Denver.  Cincy will most likey end up with one more win than Pittsburgh and Denver one more than KC!

 

If strength of victory and strength of schedule end up in a tie, the next step is point differential where Houston is ahead of Indy by about 60, so forget about that one.  Strength of victory or Houston loses two or it's game over.

 

 

 

 

[DalTXColtsFan]

One more iron in the fire:  If KC beats Cleveland and Oakland at home they're the #5 seed.  Who thinks the Colts couldn't beat the Chiefs at home with a healthy Andrew Luck (assuming he IS healthy for the playoffs)?  And who wouldn't at least want the CHANCE to go up to NE and try to make an injury-depleted Patriots team go one-and-done in the playoffs?

[LJpalmbeacher2]

I need some Advil. I have a headache.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

Just now, LJpalmbeacher said:

I need some Advil. I have a headache.

If we get in, someone send me a text. Lol

[BloodyChamp]

WE NEED MORE POINTS 1999: http://youtu.be/AZ83nnODDjs