Drafting A Qb First Overall

[KyFan18]

So, a lot of people are saying that we should take Luck first overall because it will "set our franchise up for the next 10-15 years." So, I got to thinking, what is the success rate of drafting QBs #1 overall? All these guys were taken in hopes that they would be the centerpiece of their franchise and "set them up for the next 10-15 years." So, how many of these guys would you say are worth taking with the first pick? I went back 20 years and looked at every QB take #1 overall.

1993 – Drew Bledsoe – NE

1998 – Peyton Manning – IND

1999 – Tim Couch – CLE

2001 – Michael Vick – ATL

2002 – David Carr – HOU

2003 – Carson Palmer – CIN

2004 – Eli Manning – SD (traded to NYG)

2005 – Alex Smith – SF

2007 – JaMarcus Russell – OAK

2009 – Matthew Stafford – DET

2010 – Sam Bradford - STL

Of that list of 11 guys, I think 3 of them (Bledsoe and the brothers Manning) have turned out to be "franchise QBs." Of those three, 2 have won Super Bowls for their team, and of those two, I bet only one is destined for the Hall of Fame. Admittedly, the jury is very much still out concerning Stafford and Bradford.

So, it appears to me that all those clamoring for "the next Manning" are ignoring the fact that Peyton is the exception, not the rule. I know that many will disagree with me, and that's fine. It's just my two cents. I just don't understand why people are acting like Luck is a "sure thing" because he is projected to be the #1 pick in the draft.

[BmoreColt]

So, a lot of people are saying that we should take Luck first overall because it will "set our franchise up for the next 10-15 years." So, I got to thinking, what is the success rate of drafting QBs #1 overall? All these guys were taken in hopes that they would be the centerpiece of their franchise and "set them up for the next 10-15 years." So, how many of these guys would you say are worth taking with the first pick? I went back 20 years and looked at every QB take #1 overall.

1993 – Drew Bledsoe – NE

1998 – Peyton Manning – IND

1999 – Tim Couch – CLE

2001 – Michael Vick – ATL

2002 – David Carr – HOU

2003 – Carson Palmer – CIN

2004 – Eli Manning – SD (traded to NYG)

2005 – Alex Smith – SF

2007 – JaMarcus Russell – OAK

2009 – Matthew Stafford – DET

2010 – Sam Bradford - STL

Of that list of 11 guys, I think 3 of them (Bledsoe and the brothers Manning) have turned out to be "franchise QBs." Of those three, 2 have won Super Bowls for their team, and of those two, I bet only one is destined for the Hall of Fame. Admittedly, the jury is very much still out concerning Stafford and Bradford.

So, it appears to me that all those clamoring for "the next Manning" are ignoring the fact that Peyton is the exception, not the rule. I know that many will disagree with me, and that's fine. It's just my two cents. I just don't understand why people are acting like Luck is a "sure thing" because he is projected to be the #1 pick in the draft.

The sad part is only one "expert / analysist" and that being Marcelus Willey, said he would trade the #1 overall pick.. Because the Colts have Peyton Manning! Everyone thinks oh no this is the next Rodgers and Favre.. when GreenBay did not have nearly the holes the Colts did when they took Rodgers LATE in the first round, they just followed best palyer available principle..

[21isSuperman]

Just playing Devil's advocate here....

None of those players you mentioned (with the exception of Peyton) were being built up like Luck is now. Every analyst today that I have read says Luck is a better prospect than Bradford, Stafford, all of them except Peyton

[husker61]

Just playing Devil's advocate here....

None of those players you mentioned (with the exception of Peyton) were being built up like Luck is now. Every analyst today that I have read says Luck is a better prospect than Bradford, Stafford, all of them except Peyton

agreed! a lot of those qb's were stretches, picked just because those teams needed a qb.

and if you go back further, 3 of the 7 qb's that you didn't show are hall of fame qb's and plunkett won two sb's. and the other ones aren't that bad.

1970- bradshaw

1971- plunkett

1975- bartkowski

1983- elway

198t- testazerde

1989- aikmam

1990- george

[turner46992]

So, a lot of people are saying that we should take Luck first overall because it will "set our franchise up for the next 10-15 years." So, I got to thinking, what is the success rate of drafting QBs #1 overall? All these guys were taken in hopes that they would be the centerpiece of their franchise and "set them up for the next 10-15 years." So, how many of these guys would you say are worth taking with the first pick? I went back 20 years and looked at every QB take #1 overall.

1993 – Drew Bledsoe – NE

1998 – Peyton Manning – IND

1999 – Tim Couch – CLE

2001 – Michael Vick – ATL

2002 – David Carr – HOU

2003 – Carson Palmer – CIN

2004 – Eli Manning – SD (traded to NYG)

2005 – Alex Smith – SF

2007 – JaMarcus Russell – OAK

2009 – Matthew Stafford – DET

2010 – Sam Bradford - STL

Of that list of 11 guys, I think 3 of them (Bledsoe and the brothers Manning) have turned out to be "franchise QBs." Of those three, 2 have won Super Bowls for their team, and of those two, I bet only one is destined for the Hall of Fame. Admittedly, the jury is very much still out concerning Stafford and Bradford.

So, it appears to me that all those clamoring for "the next Manning" are ignoring the fact that Peyton is the exception, not the rule. I know that many will disagree with me, and that's fine. It's just my two cents. I just don't understand why people are acting like Luck is a "sure thing" because he is projected to be the #1 pick in the draft.

I created a post very very similar to this a few months back, when everyone has hard for Luck..just to show not very many qbs picked first have been successful, but those qbs that have been picked up later in the draft have shined tremendously...like Brady for a good example...Was a 6th round pick I believe, and is considered one of the best..Rogers, is earning his name for one of the best...Drew brees, not sure when he went, but look at his career...Dan Marino Drafted 27th I think in 83, Brett Favre Drafted 33rd overall by the Falcons and I think he sat on the bench before going to green bay...So I mean Franchise qb's dont necessarily come from the number 1 pick, only a few good ones like Manning do

[husker61]

I created a post very very similar to this a few months back, when everyone has hard for Luck..just to show not very many qbs picked first have been successful, but those qbs that have been picked up later in the draft have shined tremendously...like Brady for a good example...Was a 6th round pick I believe, and is considered one of the best..Rogers, is earning his name for one of the best...Drew brees, not sure when he went, but look at his career...Dan Marino Drafted 27th I think in 83, Brett Favre Drafted 33rd overall by the Falcons and I think he sat on the bench before going to green bay...So I mean Franchise qb's dont necessarily come from the number 1 pick, only a few good ones like Manning do

just because you can pick a handful of great qb's out of hundreds that have not been the 1st overall pick doesn't mean anything. the percentage of the first overall pick qb being successful is much greater than the non first overall pick qb's. it's like finding a needle in a haystack and saying it's as easy as finding a needle in box of hay.

perception is much different than reality, but nothing is a guarantee.

[turner46992]

the percentage of the first overall pick qb being successful is much greater than the non first overall pick qb's. it's like finding a

Thats not true, you go back and research the first qb taken out of the draft and see how many of them became successful, had winning records, or became the face of the franchise. If you look at what qbs came out of later rounds of the draft and compare them too the very first one taken out, you will see...I only researched ten years back and know for a fact there are more successful qbs taken later than the first one taken, whether it be the first over all or just first qb period

[husker61]

Thats not true, you go back and research the first qb taken out of the draft and see how many of them became successful, had winning records, or became the face of the franchise. If you look at what qbs came out of later rounds of the draft and compare them too the very first one taken out, you will see...I only researched ten years back and know for a fact there are more successful qbs taken later than the first one taken, whether it be the first over all or just first qb period

you are just wrong and i will prove it.

an average of 12 qb's are drafted a year going back to 1991. that is about 230 non 1st overall qb's (i'm sure it is similar going back further). how many have been successful and what is the percentage? maybe one every year? that is one out of 11. first overall picks are a MUCH higher success percentage! you conveniently forget haw many qb's are taken every year.

the last 11 years:

vick - successful

carr - bust

palmer - successful

manning - successful

smith - average

russel - bust

stafford - he is playing well now

bradford - good, bad, and hurt (inconclusive)

newton - successful

there are only two real busts on this list. what is your idea of successful? these qb's have been drafted by bad teams, so how do you judge them on a winning record? vick, palmer, and manning have all been the face of their franchise at one time.

who are the non 1st pick qb's that are successful the last 10 years? are there 50? there has been over 100 drafted.

[turner46992]

you are just wrong and i will prove it.

an average of 12 qb's are drafted a year going back to 1991. that is about 230 non 1st overall qb's (i'm sure it is similar going back further). how many have been successful and what is the percentage? maybe one every year? that is one out of 11. first overall picks are a MUCH higher success percentage! you conveniently forget haw many qb's are taken every year.

the last 11 years:

vick - successful

carr - bust

palmer - successful

manning - successful

smith - average

russel - bust

stafford - he is playing well now

bradford - good, bad, and hurt (inconclusive)

newton - successful

there are only two real busts on this list. what is your idea of successful? these qb's have been drafted by bad teams, so how do you judge them on a winning record? vick, palmer, and manning have all been the face of their franchise at one time.

who are the non 1st pick qb's that are successful the last 10 years? are there 50? there has been over 100 drafted.

Well, I think its to early to say Newton is a success now with this being his first year, he has done some amazing things but I just cant say he is successful yet, to me a successful qb brings wins to a team gets them championship. or at least takes them to the big game. That to me is success. so to your list Ill add my thoughts

vick - agree

carr - agree

palmer - disagree, I think palmer should be considered average

manning - agree

smith - agree

russel - agree

stafford - disagree, He has been injured most of last year and only played in 10 games in 09. So I would say he isnt a bust, but he is earning a name for himself this year no doubt about it. Id label him as inconclusive

bradford - disagree, I think bradford is a bust but then I think its to early to call him a bust or a success.

newton - disagree, Its to early to claim him successful, he is playing on a bad team, and has a losing record..but he has put up some amazing numbers...so yeah he WILL be successful eventually, but to early to tell.

Being average and injured doesnt equally successful to me. So I say out of all those only Three are possibly Successful, Vick, Manning, and Newton..Look at the other qbs taken though in those Drafts..Rogers was in the 05 draft and is very successful. Drew Brees was in Vicks Draft Class. and has had a better career, Carson Palmer is the best qb in his draft, but is he worth that first pick..I dont know because Im just judging by his pro career.

But Im not just talking about the 1st pick overall. Im talking about the first qb taken in the draft period, whether they are number 1 or number 10..just saying in general..

[husker61]

Well, I think its to early to say Newton is a success now with this being his first year, he has done some amazing things but I just cant say he is successful yet, to me a successful qb brings wins to a team gets them championship. or at least takes them to the big game. That to me is success. so to your list Ill add my thoughts

vick - agree

carr - agree

palmer - disagree, I think palmer should be considered average

manning - agree

smith - agree

russel - agree

stafford - disagree, He has been injured most of last year and only played in 10 games in 09. So I would say he isnt a bust, but he is earning a name for himself this year no doubt about it. Id label him as inconclusive

bradford - disagree, I think bradford is a bust but then I think its to early to call him a bust or a success.

newton - disagree, Its to early to claim him successful, he is playing on a bad team, and has a losing record..but he has put up some amazing numbers...so yeah he WILL be successful eventually, but to early to tell.

Being average and injured doesnt equally successful to me. So I say out of all those only Three are possibly Successful, Vick, Manning, and Newton..Look at the other qbs taken though in those Drafts..Rogers was in the 05 draft and is very successful. Drew Brees was in Vicks Draft Class. and has had a better career, Carson Palmer is the best qb in his draft, but is he worth that first pick..I dont know because Im just judging by his pro career.

But Im not just talking about the 1st pick overall. Im talking about the first qb taken in the draft period, whether they are number 1 or number 10..just saying in general..

so that's only 3 out of 6 busts in a very small sample.

i agree on the incomplete grades for recent picks, but since you only went back 10 years, that doesn't leave much else for examples.

all of the discussions (specifically this thread) are about the first pick of the draft. qb's picked later in the 1st round are usually nothing close to the 1st overall qb pick because then they would have been taken #1.

will you admit that a qb taken with the first pick in the draft has a much better chance of being successful than any other qb taken? this was my original point.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Here's a list of all 1st round QB's since (and including) Peyton was drafted. 39 of them. The league is littered with first rounders. The league is not littered with Elite PB/HOF level QB's.

To me, not trying for the Elite / potential HOF franchise QB nearly guarantees near parity with the rest of the NFL... if you are Lucky. There are busts in there too.

Now, I may find time tomorrow for all of the NON first round QB's, and those needles in a haystack.

Year

#tk Rd Pick Plyr#

2011

1 1 1 1 ** Cam Newton Panthers Auburn **

2 1 8 8 Jake Locker Titans Washington

3 1 10 10 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars Missouri

4 1 12 12 Christian Ponder Vikings Florida State **

2010

1 1 1 1 ** Sam Bradford Rams Oklahoma **

2 1 25 25 Tim Tebow Broncos Florida

2009

1 1 1 1 ** Matthew Stafford Lions Georgia **

2 1 5 5 Mark Sanchez Jets USC

3 1 17 17 Josh Freeman Buccaneers Kansas State

2008

1 1 3 3 Matt Ryan Falcons Boston College **

2 1 18 18 Joe Flacco Ravens Delaware

2007

1 1 1 1 ** JaMarcus Russell Raiders Louisiana State -- **

2 1 22 22 Brady Quinn Browns Notre Dame

2006

1 1 3 3 Vince Young Titans Texas

2 1 10 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals USC

3 1 11 11 Jay Cutler Broncos Vanderbilt

2005

1 1 1 1 ** Alex D. Smith 49ers Utah **

2 1 24 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California

3 1 25 25 Jason Campbell Redskins Auburn

2004

1 1 1 1 ** Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi **

2 1 4 4 Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State

3 1 11 11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH)

4 1 22 22 J.P. Losman Bills Tulane

2003

1 1 1 1 ** Carson Palmer Bengals USC **

2 1 7 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Marshall

3 1 19 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California

4 1 22 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida

2002

1 1 1 1 ** David Carr Texans Fresno State **

2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon

3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane

2001

1 1 1 1 ** Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech **

2000

1 1 18 18 Chad Pennington Jets Marshall

1999

1 1 1 1 ** Tim Couch Browns Kentucky **

2 1 2 2 Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse

3 1 3 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon

4 1 11 11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida

5 1 12 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA

1998

1 1 1 1 ** Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee **

2 1 2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State

[oldunclemark]

So, a lot of people are saying that we should take Luck first overall because it will "set our franchise up for the next 10-15 years." So, I got to thinking, what is the success rate of drafting QBs #1 overall? All these guys were taken in hopes that they would be the centerpiece of their franchise and "set them up for the next 10-15 years." So, how many of these guys would you say are worth taking with the first pick? I went back 20 years and looked at every QB take #1 overall.

1993 – Drew Bledsoe – NE

1998 – Peyton Manning – IND

1999 – Tim Couch – CLE

2001 – Michael Vick – ATL

2002 – David Carr – HOU

2003 – Carson Palmer – CIN

2004 – Eli Manning – SD (traded to NYG)

2005 – Alex Smith – SF

2007 – JaMarcus Russell – OAK

2009 – Matthew Stafford – DET

2010 – Sam Bradford - STL

Of that list of 11 guys, I think 3 of them (Bledsoe and the brothers Manning) have turned out to be "franchise QBs." Of those three, 2 have won Super Bowls for their team, and of those two, I bet only one is destined for the Hall of Fame. Admittedly, the jury is very much still out concerning Stafford and Bradford.

So, it appears to me that all those clamoring for "the next Manning" are ignoring the fact that Peyton is the exception, not the rule. I know that many will disagree with me, and that's fine. It's just my two cents. I just don't understand why people are acting like Luck is a "sure thing" because he is projected to be the #1 pick in the draft.

That's a ugly list Ky-man

[husker61]

That's a ugly list Ky-man

most 1st round picks don't amount to much. the draft hype from all the media outlets doesn't equal the reality.