Double A Breakdown: Week 6

[Andy]

The Colts go to New York to face the Jets in only their 2nd away game this season. Andrew Luck looks to repeat his great performance this week and the defense looks to get a lot of pressure on Mark Sanchez. Should be an interesting match.

What the Colts Need to do to Win

As always, let's start with the offense.

Andrew Luck is coming off the most impressive performance of his young career. The thing he needs to remember now, is to not lose focus and fall back (or get too caught up) in that game. I've seen that happen way too often, and those players end up falling flat on their faces. Knowing Luck and his "amnesia" to things like that, I'm not too worried about him. Now, let's get to the more important part, his performance. Now, he had a great thing working with Reggie Wayne last week, but that was last week and you don't think the Jets will try and stop that. For starters, Wayne will be going up against Antonio Cromartie, who had an oustanding game against Andre Johnson. Also, the Jets could provide safety help with Laron Landry, a very solid safety. My point is that even if Reggie Wayne has a good game, he shouldn't be targeted as much because all the focus will be on Reggie. Luck should try to look for other options like Donnie Avery, or Coby Fleener, or even Dwayne Allen. There are a lot of talented players on this offense. He should try and find them, on top of Reggie Wayne. I've been saying this every week too, and he keeps doing it; he keeps forcing the ball on third down, and guess who it's mostly to: Reggie Wayne. In the first half of last week's game that didn't work, and it hasn't worked in recent weeks. He needs to make the smart decision on third down instead of forcing it in there the second he feels pressure. Final thing about Luck, he should try to use his feet a lot too. The Jets don't have a fast front 7, should he should use his feet when there's a lot of pressure, even if the first down's not there.

As for the rest of the offense... Vick Ballard gets his first start of the year and his career, as I predicted (but didn't expect it like this). He's going up against the 31st ranked run defense, that allows on average 172 yards on the ground each game. darn... Perfect setting for his first start. The Colts shouldn't rely completely on Vick Ballard. The majority of the third downs should go to Mewelde Moore, who's a more complete and experienced back, who can also catch quite well. He could be an asset this game. However, this is Ballard's time to shine.

Then the receivers. Reggie Wayne is having the best start to his career. However, he will probably be watched a lot this game by the Jets. Cromartie is on him, and they'll probably have safety help over the top with Laron Landry or Kyle Wilson. He should be targeted, but not as much as last game, and he shouldn't make throwing to him obvious. Cromartie is a ballhawk. As mentioned earlier, he should target the other guys: Donnie Avery, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, or TY Hilton. These guys will likely have one on one matchups most of the game, and that's great, especially for Fleener.

Then the O-line. They don't have a very tough challenge in the Jets D-line. The Texans O-line did a good job against the them. If the O-line gives Luck time, you see what happens, he makes plays. The pass protection doesn't worry me. The run protection does. They had a good game last week, but let's if they can repeat it (otherwise known as consistency, something they've had many problems with the last few years). If the Colts can establish a running game, it will be because of the hard work of Ballard, but also the O-line playing well. The running game is like a 2 man bicycle, both must be performing well together for it to work, it's extremely tough to get it going with just one guy doing the peddling.

As for the offensive gameplan, the Colts should try and copy the Texan's gameplan from last week's game. They were extremely aggressive early, throwing deep and using the play action. The play action worked because they have Arian Foster. The Colts don't. I think they should come out guns blazing and pass deep and a lot early on, then slowly establish the run. That seems to work, and they did that against the Jaguars in the first half and had an 11 point lead. This is the perfect gameplan for this game too. Once they get a lead or are in the 2nd quarter, they should start giving Ballard the ball. By then, they'll be in their deep zone defenses, trying to prevent the deep passes or passes to Reggie Wayne. FInally, the Colts should use a lot of no-huddle offense. That seems to work a lot of the time they use it, and Luck seems to know the offense well enough to utilize it.

Then the defense.

The pressure on Sanchez is extremely important in shutting down their offense. If you get to Sanchez, you pretty much take away their passing game, which right now, is their offense. That means Cory Redding needs to be big. Drake Nevis should try to get pressure too. Nevis is a pass pressure guy (who isn't great against the run), so if the Colts can get another player getting pressure, that would be huge, BUT it's not neccessary.

As for the linebackers, the outside guys, Jerry Hughes, who's replacing the hot Robert Mathis, and Dwight Freeney need to be important in rushing the QB.If they can give the tackles a handful to worry about, this would give the 3 defensive lineman one-on-one matchups, which would be huge for Cory Redding. The most important players on this defense in this upcoming game are Jerry Hughes and Dwight Freeney. It's that simple. As for the inside guys, Conner and Freeman. Conner should play a containment kind of role, that he's used to playing. This means that he should follow the running back (Shonn Greene) and just be his shadow for the game and not letting him have any big runs. Jerrell Freeman should be used more as a wildcard, in the sense, that he could be used anywhere (coverage, blitzes, containment...). This has worked in the past, especially against the Vikings.

Then the secondary. They're still banged up, but that didn't seem to matter last week against the Packers, who are just head and shoulders above the Jets on offense (quarterback, running back and receiver wise). However, fans should not expect the Colts to come out and play like they did last week. That was an emotional win. This week, there is less emotion, and it's on the road, so they're won't be many Colts fans. Just to knock some sense into some of the overly-optimistic Colts fans who are riding on last week's miraculous win, they lost to the Jaguars at home a couple of weeks earlier. Anyways, Jerraud Powers must go up against Stephen Hill. He has too. Powers is turning into one of the better DEEP coverage (not overall) cornerbacks in the league, and I'm not just saying that. He shut down Steve Smith, Roddy White and few others last year, taking away the deep pass, and he shut down Jordy Nelson last week, not allowing any big plays from him. If he can take away Stephen Hill, who's mainly known for his big play ability, that would be big. That would then put Cassius Vaughn against Jeremy Kerley, another guy with deep play ability. Vaughn should play the same way he played last week and if they need extra support over the top, Bethea could be used. Just take away the deep pass and big plays, and they won't get much going. This probably won't happen, but it would be a good idea if they did this... the Colts should try and rotate Joe Lefeged into the strong safety spot. Tom Zbikowski hasn't been very good, and Lefeged has been an animal on special teams; he's working hard. Give him a shot. So, all in all, if the secondary can take away the deep passes, they'll be fine.

The defensive gameplan should be to disguise a lot of blitzes and play pretty conservatively in the secondary, which means using deep zones from the safeties and a mixture of man and zone coverages from the cornerbacks. Taking away the deep ball is key, and so is getting pressure to the QB. If they can do both, they'll stop the passing game. Oh, and don't worry about the running game, Shonn Greene is averaging less than 3 yards per carry and is looking horrible. The Colts should be able to stop him.

What the Jets Need to do to Win

On offense, the O-line must give Sanchez protection. If they can't, they'll be doomed. Sanchez is one of those guys that must be given time to throw the ball and he'll just fall flat on his face. He's like a better Blaine Gabbert, and that's not a compliment. If the O-line can give him time to throw, he can make the reads, he did that last week against the Texans, who have a great defense. That's the most important thing in the passing game. The Jets should also establish a running game. They haven't been able to do that all year, which is why their offense has struggled so much. If the Jets can get a running game going, they'll keep Luck off the field and they'll score points, whether it be 3 or 7 points.

Their gameplan should be to pass early, and get some confidence. Then, they should slow it down a bit and start trying to establish a running game. If that doesn't work, pass it more, utilizing the play action, which the Colts seem to have a bit of trouble on. If it does work, just keep pounding the ball, and slowly bring the passing game back into the game.

On defense, the Jets must get pressure on Andrew Luck. It's a must, or they'll just be picked apart. They should not look at him as a rookie quarterback, but they should go into the game with the mentality that he's a 3 year vet. Don't underestimate him, because the Packers did and look what happened. They must get pressure on Luck, which means that getting some 6 man blitzes is pretty important. The blitzes should come from the left side (or the Colts' right side), because Winston Justice is very weak at picking up blitzes as proven last week against Matthews, Perry and Walden. If the Colts start going to the ground game, the Jets have to bring Laron Landry into the box. He's a strong guy who plays very well in the box defending the run.

The Jets should completely eliminate the running game, and then focus on Andrew Luck 100%. Once they're there, play a conservative zone coverage defense, while rushing 4 or 5 guys.

Intriguing Matchup

The intriguing matchup is the Colts' defensive line vs the Jets' offensive line. Matches are won and lost in the trenches and the winner of this battle will probably dictate how well the Jets' passing game will perform. As stated earlier, with the Jets' running game being non-existent, the passing game is all they got. Get to Sanchez and they'll be in the driver seat for most of the game, if they can't, then expect them to move the ball, because Sanchez isn't horrible when there's no pressure.

Prediction

Indianapolis Colts 20 vs New York Jets 17

[jbaron04]

Every qb forces to be wr name one that don't?

[Andy]

Every qb forces to be wr name one that don't?

Of course, Im just saying that Luck consistently does it on third down and it's always to Reggie Wayne. He needs to stay patient in those situations and find the best option available, which a lot of the better QBs today do.

[jbaron04]

Of course, Im just saying that Luck consistently does it on third down and it's always to Reggie Wayne. He needs to stay patient in those situations and find the best option available, which a lot of the better QBs today do.

Luck Does check down as much as a vet qb but if all guys are covered Wayne has best chance to make play like qb do with top wide outs there cover throw it give them a chance to make a play