Reality's 2024 Mock 1.0

[RealityIsLuck]

Happy Friday Colts fans, wanted to share with my first stab at an "ideal" 24' Mock after Ballard's Free Agency looks like it's essentially ended (plus or minus maybe a signing post-signing draft or two). 

 

Operating Assumptions: 

1. The Colts will continue to prioritize retaining in-house talent over free agents. This has been made abundantly clear in this year's free agency. In on Hunter, in on Snead, but not meeting the $ or landing as the preferred singing spot. We have massive gaps on the roster, and they will likely have to be rookies. 
2. Retaining draft capital and cap flexibility.  As long as AR is on his rookie deal, this point will remain (under we make any uber-aggressive moves). I think this makes it unlikely we trade up. 
3. Ballard loves his picks (&RAS). I think it's more than likely we trade down from 15. Ideally, add a second and change. Given the state of the secondary I think it's likely they trade down and collect extra day picks to address the issues at CB/both safety spots. If they want to compete for/in the playoffs in any competitive fashion, they need to address all 3. Trends are trends. 

 

Mock trade: 

IND receives: 1 (25), 2 (41). GB moves up to 15 to grab a top lineman (Fautanu, Fuaga, Latham, Fashanu, whoever falls). 

 

1 (25): Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa 

DeJean is my top draft crush this year. At 6'1 he possesses the ideal size and athletic profile for an outside CB. The Colts desperately need another outside corner to pair with JuJu Brents and DeJean could form a strong pairing for the next decade+. 

 

DeJean is also great against the run and has positional versatility. He could move around the Cover 3 and play at multiple levels. An asset to the scheme and strong fit who could be a cornerstone piece. 

 

2 (41): Darius Robinson, Defensive Lineman, Missouri (7.22 RAS)

This is the luxury pick for moving down. I would love to see Tyler Nubin or Xavier Worthy here, but don't envision either will be on the board. Robinson is a versatile DL, at Mizzou he kicked out to ED this year and thrived. He's big (6'5/285) and very powerful. What he lacks in speed he makes up for in power and length. In today's NFL you can never have enough EDGE guys to play by matchup, and Robinson could make an impact day 1. He's got a unique skill set and that could dominate in certain matchups. 

 

2 (46): Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon (9.33 RAS)

Another huge draft crush of mine. I'm confident enough that there will be another good WR option here to provide a solid upgrade over Alec Pierce, due to the pool of 2nd rd talent in an insanely stacked class (Worthy/Legette/Coleman/McConkey/Franklin). 

 

Franklin in Steichen's offense with Pittman/Downs/AR/JT is scary. Franklin lit the nation up at Oregon this year. The big knock is his small frame (176 lb at 6'2), its a valid concern but Franklin has all the tools to be an elite NFL WR - 4.4 speed, 39" vert, smooth hips, and great footwork (despite a limited route tree). He'd fit in as a fantastic vertical threat day 1 across Pittman. If he can add some bulk and muscle while expanding his route tree he has WR1 potential.

 

3 (82): Jaden Hicks, Box Safety, Washington State (9.28 RAS)

Initially, I had Claen Bullock penciled in here as I love his tape, range, and Cover 3 fit. However, I fundamentally cannot mock 2 straight 6'2 dudes under 190 lbs. We need positional versatility and can be well-rounded defenders day 1. Hicks fits that mold. 

 

Hicks is a former CB who's great against the run. Fits the RAS MO, is physical, has good size, and can play across the defensive backfield. He'd likely start day 1 as a box safety barring any late FA adds. 

 

4 (117): Cole Bishop, Deep Safety, Utah (9.87 RAS) 

Another safety prospect I would love to see who addresses a massive need. We don't have a starting quality safety on the roster today. If we lose Blackmon, may as well go back to the Utah well that's been good to us. We cannot contend with the safety play we had last year. 

 

Bishop follows the key theme of every add so far - athletic, versatile players with great size who can play multiple positions. I'm confident Bishop/Hicks would develop into an above-average pairing but it would likely come with growing pains without any FA additions. 

 

5 (151): Trevor Keegan, Interior OL, Michigan (9.22 RAS)

Keegan is a day 3 prospect I think would fit excellently with the Colts. Just like his former teammate and current Colt, Jake Witt, Keegan has a strong RAS score at 9.22. He's got good power and experience on an elite zone-blocking line. 

 

6 (191): Isaiah Davis, RB, South Dakota State (9.02 RAS) 

With Zach Moss' departure to Cincinnati, I expect us to look for a late-round flier on a RB. Personally, I love some of the day 2 backs (Braelon Allen, Blake Corum, JBrooks, Trey Benson, Ray Davis, Bucky Irving, Will Shipley) but that is a tad rich for a spellback to JT. Davis provides a lot of value as a receiver out of the backfield and has upside as a powerful downhill runner. 

 

7 (234):  Josh Magee, LB, Temple (9.3 RAS)

It wouldn't be a Ballard draft without a day 3 LB. Magee has the athletic profile that checks out with the developmental flier we seem to take every year. 

[jskinnz]

I believe we should listen to Ballard when he said likes his young secondary players. That to me means it is extremely unlikely they would invest 3 picks in the defensive backfield. 

[GoColts8818]

22 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

I believe we should listen to Ballard when he said likes his young secondary players. That to me means it is extremely unlikely they would invest 3 picks in the defensive backfield. 

I agree but he also they have work to do back there.  I don’t think it will be three picks but they have room for another corner and need another starting safety.  Both may not come in the draft but one will I am betting.

[RealityIsLuck]

On 3/29/2024 at 10:03 PM, jskinnz said:

I believe we should listen to Ballard when he said likes his young secondary players. That to me means it is extremely unlikely they would invest 3 picks in the defensive backfield. 

Right, I hear you, but I can't seriously believe we'd roll out the same defensive backfield that got TORCHED against Houston (at home, in a winner-take-division showdown) in a year where we've essentially added nothing externally and are going into 24' entirely dependent on player development to take the leap. 

 

Not to mention Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville (to an extent) have been loading up with talent to go all in. I just can't see Thomas/Cross being in consideration for either one of the starting safety spots, or Jones/Flowers being the day 1 boundary corner opposite JuJu in nickel sets. 

 

Mock was pre-Blackmon re-signing, so 3 DB/2 S could be a tad rich for sure. But I would be shocked if we didn't draft at least 2 secondary players. 

 

 

[jskinnz]

1 hour ago, RealityIsLuck said:

Right, I hear you, but I can't seriously believe we'd roll out the same defensive backfield that got TORCHED against Houston (at home, in a winner-take-division showdown) in a year where we've essentially added nothing externally and are going into 24' entirely dependent on player development to take the leap. 

 

Not to mention Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville (to an extent) have been loading up with talent to go all in. I just can't see Thomas/Cross being in consideration for either one of the starting safety spots, or Jones/Flowers being the day 1 boundary corner opposite JuJu in nickel sets. 

 

Mock was pre-Blackmon re-signing, so 3 DB/2 S could be a tad rich for sure. But I would be shocked if we didn't draft at least 2 secondary players. 

 

 

I am sure they will draft at least one DB and probably use a high pick to do so. 
 

I also just think Ballard has core beliefs, most notably is that the lines must be high level. Another core belief is the development of young players. Maybe just consider the possibility that Brents and Jones might be better players in year 2. 
 

A common theme this off season is that the Colts have not gotten better and others have because they signed a bunch of free agents. It is very possible that some year 2 and 3 guys become much better players. 

[RealityIsLuck]

39 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

I am sure they will draft at least one DB and probably use a high pick to do so. 
 

I also just think Ballard has core beliefs, most notably is that the lines must be high level. Another core belief is the development of young players. Maybe just consider the possibility that Brents and Jones might be better players in year 2. 
 

A common theme this off season is that the Colts have not gotten better and others have because they signed a bunch of free agents. It is very possible that some year 2 and 3 guys become much better players. 

Totally. Agree with you on Ballard's belief system and 90% of your main message here. 

 

I think the discrepancy comes from the fact we have 7 picks to use, and if we trade down (another one of Ballards core values), we've got to invest somewhere. Added to our IDL depth, grabbed a backup QB, brought back all our OL depth. Unless our FO is viewing OL depth as a top priority (next C, starting quality RG or red-shirted RG, future RT, etc etc) I don't see many needs outside of a spell back to JT, another weapon at WR or TE, and an off ball LB at some point there just aren't many gaps to address outside of the secondary, even if Ballard is confident in the upside of the current group. 

 

I like your framing on the theme of the off-season. It feels like Colts fans are acting like the sky is falling and our division has taken 3 steps forward before we have taken one. 

 

It's important to take a step back and remember we essentially added nobody from 22 -> 23 and rode +5 wins off better coaching and the existing group taking a step forward. Very fair to think the same could happen with such a young roster. Where I get overly skeptical is when it comes to the secondary, and being dependent on guys like Thomas/Cross to take those types of leaps when they've shown very limited upside in the opportunities they've had. 

 

 

[Lifetime Colt]

I like the mock for the most part. In the ones I have done I have taken 3 dbs, 2 cb and one free safety, and two receiver's, LB, RB, and with a few moves added IL or 2.

 

I have seen few posts that include the players coming back after missing last season, which I tell myself are bonus draft picks. Evan Hull, Daniel Scott, Jelani Woods, Jake Witt, Titus Leo, and Dallas Flowers. At least 2-4 of these have the potential to see decent playing time, so its an added bonus before drafting this year.

[Moosejawcolt]

On 3/29/2024 at 4:24 PM, RealityIsLuck said:

Happy Friday Colts fans, wanted to share with my first stab at an "ideal" 24' Mock after Ballard's Free Agency looks like it's essentially ended (plus or minus maybe a signing post-signing draft or two). 

 

Operating Assumptions: 

1. The Colts will continue to prioritize retaining in-house talent over free agents. This has been made abundantly clear in this year's free agency. In on Hunter, in on Snead, but not meeting the $ or landing as the preferred singing spot. We have massive gaps on the roster, and they will likely have to be rookies. 
2. Retaining draft capital and cap flexibility.  As long as AR is on his rookie deal, this point will remain (under we make any uber-aggressive moves). I think this makes it unlikely we trade up. 
3. Ballard loves his picks (&RAS). I think it's more than likely we trade down from 15. Ideally, add a second and change. Given the state of the secondary I think it's likely they trade down and collect extra day picks to address the issues at CB/both safety spots. If they want to compete for/in the playoffs in any competitive fashion, they need to address all 3. Trends are trends. 

 

Mock trade: 

IND receives: 1 (25), 2 (41). GB moves up to 15 to grab a top lineman (Fautanu, Fuaga, Latham, Fashanu, whoever falls). 

 

1 (25): Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa 

DeJean is my top draft crush this year. At 6'1 he possesses the ideal size and athletic profile for an outside CB. The Colts desperately need another outside corner to pair with JuJu Brents and DeJean could form a strong pairing for the next decade+. 

 

DeJean is also great against the run and has positional versatility. He could move around the Cover 3 and play at multiple levels. An asset to the scheme and strong fit who could be a cornerstone piece. 

 

2 (41): Darius Robinson, Defensive Lineman, Missouri (7.22 RAS)

This is the luxury pick for moving down. I would love to see Tyler Nubin or Xavier Worthy here, but don't envision either will be on the board. Robinson is a versatile DL, at Mizzou he kicked out to ED this year and thrived. He's big (6'5/285) and very powerful. What he lacks in speed he makes up for in power and length. In today's NFL you can never have enough EDGE guys to play by matchup, and Robinson could make an impact day 1. He's got a unique skill set and that could dominate in certain matchups. 

 

2 (46): Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon (9.33 RAS)

Another huge draft crush of mine. I'm confident enough that there will be another good WR option here to provide a solid upgrade over Alec Pierce, due to the pool of 2nd rd talent in an insanely stacked class (Worthy/Legette/Coleman/McConkey/Franklin). 

 

Franklin in Steichen's offense with Pittman/Downs/AR/JT is scary. Franklin lit the nation up at Oregon this year. The big knock is his small frame (176 lb at 6'2), its a valid concern but Franklin has all the tools to be an elite NFL WR - 4.4 speed, 39" vert, smooth hips, and great footwork (despite a limited route tree). He'd fit in as a fantastic vertical threat day 1 across Pittman. If he can add some bulk and muscle while expanding his route tree he has WR1 potential.

 

3 (82): Jaden Hicks, Box Safety, Washington State (9.28 RAS)

Initially, I had Claen Bullock penciled in here as I love his tape, range, and Cover 3 fit. However, I fundamentally cannot mock 2 straight 6'2 dudes under 190 lbs. We need positional versatility and can be well-rounded defenders day 1. Hicks fits that mold. 

 

Hicks is a former CB who's great against the run. Fits the RAS MO, is physical, has good size, and can play across the defensive backfield. He'd likely start day 1 as a box safety barring any late FA adds. 

 

4 (117): Cole Bishop, Deep Safety, Utah (9.87 RAS) 

Another safety prospect I would love to see who addresses a massive need. We don't have a starting quality safety on the roster today. If we lose Blackmon, may as well go back to the Utah well that's been good to us. We cannot contend with the safety play we had last year. 

 

Bishop follows the key theme of every add so far - athletic, versatile players with great size who can play multiple positions. I'm confident Bishop/Hicks would develop into an above-average pairing but it would likely come with growing pains without any FA additions. 

 

5 (151): Trevor Keegan, Interior OL, Michigan (9.22 RAS)

Keegan is a day 3 prospect I think would fit excellently with the Colts. Just like his former teammate and current Colt, Jake Witt, Keegan has a strong RAS score at 9.22. He's got good power and experience on an elite zone-blocking line. 

 

6 (191): Isaiah Davis, RB, South Dakota State (9.02 RAS) 

With Zach Moss' departure to Cincinnati, I expect us to look for a late-round flier on a RB. Personally, I love some of the day 2 backs (Braelon Allen, Blake Corum, JBrooks, Trey Benson, Ray Davis, Bucky Irving, Will Shipley) but that is a tad rich for a spellback to JT. Davis provides a lot of value as a receiver out of the backfield and has upside as a powerful downhill runner. 

 

7 (234):  Josh Magee, LB, Temple (9.3 RAS)

It wouldn't be a Ballard draft without a day 3 LB. Magee has the athletic profile that checks out with the developmental flier we seem to take every year. 

You want the Colts to use their  1st pick on a CB who is going to play zone in the NFL and maybe moved to safety? Why would you draft that type of player with the 15th pick when you can get that type of player in the 3rd round? You  use the 15th pick to draft a corner is more diverse and can also play man. With the 15th pick you are hoping to draft a possible blue chip player and immediate starter if you are lucky. Nothing about Cooper suggests he is able to play anything other than zone. His ceiling is a zone corner and would never be able to play man based on his skill set. You draft a guy like Mitchell who if he turns out could be an elite man corner.