Mock Offseason Rebuild and NFL Draft

[OhioColt]

Retired/Cut

Ryan Kelly – projected to retire due to concussions – 12.3m cap savings

Mo Alie-Cox – cut 5.9m savings

 

Potential restructured deals for Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner?

 

Own FA signed

SCB Kenny Moore – one of the best nickel corners–3 year 36m

WR Michael Pittman Jr – 5 year 85m along lines of Mike Evans deal – Pittman’s very good not great

DT Grover Stewart 1 year 10m

SS Julian Blackmon 3 year 22.5m

QB Gardner Minshew – Sam Darnold Panther type contract – 2 year 23m

Edge Jacob Martin 1.5m

Edge Tyquan Lewis 3m

RB Zack Moss – deal like Jamall Williams or Nyheim Hines – 3 year 14.25m

LG Arlington Hambright ERFA tender 915k

MLB Segun Olubi ERFA tender 915k

 

Own FA Unsigned

DT Taven Bryan

FS Ronnie Harrison

SAF Ronnie Harrison

WR Isaiah McKenzie

OL Danny Pinter

Edge Genard Avery

CB Darrell Baker Jr.

OL Jack Anderson

WR Juwann Winfree

CB Tony Brown

RB Trey Sermon

FS Trevor Denbow

SLB Cameron McGrone

P Rigoberto Sanchez

 

FA Signings

WR1-ST KR/PR Ray-Ray McCloud (49ers) 2.75m – been a dominate ST ace ranked #4 last season and an upgrade over McKenzie

WR3 Braxton Berrios (Dolphins) – backup that shown ability as a starter but bonus as a KR 4.25m 5.5m

LG/OC Trystan Colon (Cardinals) 1.9m

LT/LG/RT Chuma Edoga (Cowboys) 2.2m

LDE Clelin Ferrell (49ers) – 4.5m – like Ebukam Colts add another former 49er

WLB/MLB Frankie Luvu (Panthers) 8m - Year after year Luvu has proven himself and now that Leonard is gone can move Speed back to SLB

WLB/MLB Isaiah Simmons (NY Giants) – traded from Arizona to the Giants with no short-term deal – hit FA? 1 year 3.5m

LCB-ST Isaac Yiadom (Saints) 1.7m

FS Xavier McKinney (NY Giants) 8m - proven upgrade over Thomas

P Tommy Townsend (Chiefs) – 4m/yr – insane not really Townsend expected to break the bank for Punters and command top dollar.  An All-Pro in 2022 and ranked in the top 10 in the NFL.  In 2021 finished second in net yards per punt and 1st in 2022.  The Colts are already over-paying Sanchez more than Townsend is making now and nowhere near as great.

 

NFL Draft

Round 1 LCB Cooper DeJean (Iowa) Poor play from our DBs this season and release of players makes this a major need for someone to start opposite of Brents.  Capable as a PR but the addition of McCloud allows DeJean to focus on DB duties and reduce risk of injury as a returner.

 

Round 2 DL Brandon Dorlus (Oregon) – Buckner is a 2025 FA with a 20m cap savings if we cut/trade him in 2024 giving Dorlus a year and/or chance to learn from one of the best.  Adetomiwa Adebawore had high hopes for but needs to have a comeback year or else gone.

 

Round 3 NT/DT Byron Murphy II (Texas) – 2023 midseason all-America team Third Team shown ability to disrupt backfield.  Gave Grover a 1-year prove it deal after PEDs suspension.  Still wish Stewart to finish career off as a Colt but Murphy replaces Taven Bryan and hopefully can become Stewart’s future replacement.  Both Dorlus and Murphy have a strong proven history of hurries in college something the Colts seemed to lack.

 

Round 4 RB Jo’Quavious Marks (Miss. St) - 2023 earned college football midseason all-America Honorable Mention.  Above average in both run and pass blocking.  Released Trey Sermon and should push for RB3 ahead of Evan Hull.

 

Round 5 SCB-SWR Mike Sainristil (Michigan) – 75.1 pass-rushing grade when asked to blitz.  Great in man and good in zone-coverage as well.  Also capable of playing slot WR and still takes some offensive snaps with Michigan.  Obviously, Kenny Moore is the man for the time being, but Sainristil can be the future replacement and offers some upside as a slot receiver.

 

Round 6 WR-SL Malik Washington (Virginia) – 6 weeks had an 86.2 PFF receiving grade. Shifty forced 15 missed tackles – replaces Juwann Winfree as backup to Josh Downs.

 

Round 7 NCB Daequan Hardy (PSU) – ST PR – Decent college career and as a bonus another return man.

 

Offensive outlook ’24 Roster:

QB: Richardson, Minshew, Ehlinger

RB: Taylor, Moss, Marks, Hull

WR1:  Pittman Jr., McCloud

WR2: Pierce, Dulin

WR3: Downs, Berrios, Washington

TE: Ogletree, Mallory, Granson, Woods

LT: Raimann, Freeland, Edoga

LG: Nelson, Colon, Hambright

OC: French, Colon

RG: Fries, Stills

RT: Smith, Freeland, Edoga, Witt

 

Defense outlook ’24 Roster:

Edge:  Paye, Lewis, Ferrell, Martin

IDL: Buckner, Stewart, Dorlus, Adebawore, Murphy II, Johnson II

Edge:  Ebukam, Odengibo, Leo, Land

WLB:, Luvu, Simmons

MLB:, Franklin, Simmons, Olubi

SLB:  Speed, Stuard

CB: Moore, DeJean, Sainristil, Yiadom, Hardy

SS: Blackmon, Cross

FS: McKinney, Thomas II, Scott

CB: Brents, Flowers, Jones, Speed

P Tommy Townsend

 

Recap: not a year based on RAS which is TBD but build around college players on DL that proven to create pressure and hurries on pass plays.  Also added multiple ST returners as upgrades over McKenzie.  Looking back over the history of NFL draft seems clear that bigger risk drafting OL and missing on majority of the picks.  Not even first rounders are a guaranteed studs if you will with the exception of Nelson and a few others.    Both Edoga and Colon are proven backups that I have been keeping tabs on for past few years and again this year showing that have value to whomever they play for.  The Colts clearly need backup wide receivers and both Berrios and McCloud are proven and excel as returners.  Our DB is overhauled and much improved  along with adding another LB standout in Luvu and Simmons offers upside as well.  Plus we upgrade our Punter with Townsend.  Now need Richardson back healthy and build chemistry again but having Minshew back already puts the Colts well ahead of other organizations in terms of proven backups that can start and win games. 

[Archer]

Well done.  I like it - good analysis.  We’re all wondering about Kelly, but if he retires (or is leaning that way by the draft) then I think we need to draft an IOL early.  I’m making the assumption that Kelly hangs on one more year, but I’m still drafting a 3rd round IOL, bc French has been pretty meh in relief…

[Mr. Too Proud]

Like how you address the future with picks.

[Dark Superman]

Tyquan Lewis living large off those one-year contracts every year.

[holeymoley99]

Dont think Jones is going to go from his current CB 1 down to CB 5 with as well as he has been playing and developing unless he falls off a cliff rest of the season.  Think we may have bigger plans for Ronnie Harrison after spending all season bulking him up and then  cutting  Leonard so he could see the field and when he does promptly gets a crucial pick but we shall see.

 

Appreciate the time put in for this post, a lot of good research.

[OhioColt]

On 12/3/2023 at 11:37 AM, holeymoley99 said:

Dont think Jones is going to go from his current CB 1 down to CB 5 with as well as he has been playing and developing unless he falls off a cliff rest of the season.  Think we may have bigger plans for Ronnie Harrison after spending all season bulking him up and then  cutting  Leonard so he could see the field and when he does promptly gets a crucial pick but we shall see.

 

Appreciate the time put in for this post, a lot of good research.

Jones has been a surprise indeed for our Colts.  Hopefully Jones can continue to finish the season strong.  Kind of what I was alluding to earlier when drafting that DBs can be found late or even go UDFA that teams overlook.  Jones was an intriguing player with high potential but for some reason dropped significantly in the draft.  We got very luck indeed drafting Jones.   Do I consider Jones a true #1 CB probably not but a very strong rotational backup corner indeed.  Most of the DBs I listed are more slot corners not true outside corners. 

 

On 11/30/2023 at 9:15 AM, Archer said:

Well done.  I like it - good analysis.  We’re all wondering about Kelly, but if he retires (or is leaning that way by the draft) then I think we need to draft an IOL early.  I’m making the assumption that Kelly hangs on one more year, but I’m still drafting a 3rd round IOL, bc French has been pretty meh in relief…

I would like to see Kelly stick around another year as well.  Then again, Kelly always seemed to a stud one year and more a dud the next.  Not really sold on too many OL in the draft nor any available center in FA.  Trystan Colon would be a great addition and would be interesting to see who wins the starting role if Kelly does retire.  I am on the fence about Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) who in this draft class is probably the best center and we could very well target in Round 2.

[Colts1324]

Pretty solid mock. 

Like the depth signings. 
 

2 things:

 

1.) I think Grover gets at least a 2 year deal. He’s 30 years old, but he’s very underrated. Prior to the suspension, I believe his projected

contract was 3 year/42 million.

 

2.) If Kelly retires, we will need to sign a solid vet center or draft one earlier in the 2nd or 3rd round. We can’t risk having a repeat of 2022. 

 

[OhioColt]

On 12/5/2023 at 10:10 AM, Colts1324 said:

Pretty solid mock. 

Like the depth signings. 
 

2 things:

 

1.) I think Grover gets at least a 2 year deal. He’s 30 years old, but he’s very underrated. Prior to the suspension, I believe his projected

contract was 3 year/42 million.

 

2.) If Kelly retires, we will need to sign a solid vet center or draft one earlier in the 2nd or 3rd round. We can’t risk having a repeat of 2022. 

 

Got to love what Grover has done for the Colts and part of me wants to see him retire but in the end the NFL is a business.  Time to rebuild the organization and go younger with AR leading us into the future.  Really hope the Colts can acquire Justin Madubuike from the Ravens who is equally a much younger version of Grover. 

 

With the mid-season release of Leonard I hope we can get Luvu as his replacement and move Speed back to SLB. 

 

I still continue to look over our team and continue to look toward our future and what might be the best course of action.  As of right now we need a true defensive back to start opposite of Brents.  Brown stinks and Baker is starting to improve. Jones is a solid backup with starter potential.  I am leaning towards drafting Cooper DeJean as a FS with CB potential but feel he will be gone ahead of us.  Think we look at Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) to be that man opposite of Brents.

 

Round 2 SCB Mike Sainristil (Michigan) Kenny's replacement.  Sainristil may very well go late in Round 2 like Jartavius Martin did last year.  Continuing with the youth rebuild and parting with Kenny Moore. 

 

Round 3 WR-X Tory Horton (Colorado St) assuming McKenzie moves on and Horton takes over in the return game. 

 

Round 4 SWR Malik Washington (Virginia).  Dulin is on IR and will be a FA after 2024.  Depth behind Downs

 

Round 5 FS Jaylin Simpson (Auburn) - strong season for Auburn and no guaranteed we resign Rodney

 

Round 6 WR-Z Hayden Hatten (Idaho) – this year’s Puka Nacua?  Adds depth behind Pierce

 

Round 7 RDE Kaimon Rucker (UNC) - Rucker became first Tar Heel in 10-years to be named the Walker Camp Defensive Player of the Week.

[MikeCurtis]

Thanks for putting this together

 

Always good to read thru these

 

Cooper Dejean seems like a Ballard pick  Team captain, aww shucks midwestern kid

that has size and speed. Can play anywhere in the backfield

 

I LIKE the fact that you are addressing the FS position. Its high time we had a playmaker back there

 

2 things I would gently question

I'm not sure about Byron Murphy for the Colts. He would seem to scream 3-4 NT.

I would like to get a true WR1 in the draft.

 

We will have to pay Pittman 20M per year. Having the other WR come in at a FA $$ would seem to be too much for the position. This would seem to be the year to get a WR1 in the draft

 

Again..... Thanks for submitting

[Shive]

On 12/5/2023 at 12:13 AM, OhioColt said:

Jones has been a surprise indeed for our Colts.  Hopefully Jones can continue to finish the season strong.  Kind of what I was alluding to earlier when drafting that DBs can be found late or even go UDFA that teams overlook.  Jones was an intriguing player with high potential but for some reason dropped significantly in the draft.  We got very luck indeed drafting Jones.   Do I consider Jones a true #1 CB probably not but a very strong rotational backup corner indeed.  Most of the DBs I listed are more slot corners not true outside corners. well target in Round 2.

Jones fell because he lacks high-end physical traits. He's not an athletic freak and has an average athletic profile, but he allowed the lowest completion rate of any CB in college (I can't remember the stat off hand, but it was a ridiculous figure). Point is, he's not a high upside guy, but he's got a very high floor.

 

I've seen it from a lot of people so this isn't just aimed at you, but Jones for most of the season graded out as the top rookie CB and I can't understand how someone looks at how he played as a rookie and says "yea he's back-up at best". He has locked down really good WRs for entire games (he's gotten beat a couple of times, but it was usually a play where you were sure if it was the safety's responsibility or his).

 

If in the 1st, a CB is far and away BPA, sure let's do it, but I definitely wouldn't prioritize the position. Like you mentioned though, you listed a few SCBs, which I think we could definitely use depth there.