The Bears Delima and the Colts Future

[OhioColt]

The Bears like most are expected to win 7-8 games in 2023.  Does Justin Fields take the next step this year or degrees?  It does seem to be a make-or-break year for Fields in the Windy City that determines if he is a mid-to-bottom-tier starter or a future backup quarterback.  The Bears do own Carolina’s first round pick this year.  Could the Bears use both first-round picks as collateral to move up and take their franchise in another direction taking another QB of their future? Moving on from Justin Fields would only cost the Bears 6 million in dead money for 2024 but could also be a potential trade option. 

 

Guess we need to recap the wild trades and implications in the past few seasons and how they might affect this year’s 2024 NFL draft.  Arizona’s Kyler Murray is currently injured, surprise after he got his contract extended but owns Houston’s Round 1 and Round 3 picks in a trade.  On a side note, Houston does still get Cleveland’s first round pick via Watson trade.  After looking over the projected 2023 NFL win totals for teams it looks like around 12 teams all are a coin flip to finish with similar records near the bottom of the league.  Truly looks like anything could happen.

 

Could the Colts be in an ideal spot to leverage the situation?  Are the Colts really projected to be as bad as some are saying and finish near the bottom of the league and get a top pick?  A third of the league is expected to win 6 game minimum including the Colts and still could have the second pick in next year's draft according to early predictions.  Could this hypothetical dream scenario work out to benefit the Colts?

 

Let’s assume the Colts finish second to last and get the second pick while the Bears-Panthers earn the 7th and 14th Round 1 picks respectively.  A 6–8-win season is plausible, and those standings aren’t farfetched based on initial win calculations before the NFL kicked off.  Matt Eberflus took over for Matt Nagy and Justin Fields doubt was his first choice at quarterback and is playing the hand he was delt.  Do expect Eberflus to take a chance on Caleb Williams and extend his legacy with the Bears.

 

Let’s assume the Colts would be an ideal trade candidate in the 2024 NFL draft with the Bears and would drop back acquiring picks 7 and 14 in Round 1.

 

Own FA resigned

RB Jonathan Taylor 3-year 38m contract extension 20m guaranteed, 12m signing bonus

DT Grover Stewart 3-year 42m, 21m guaranteed, 12m signing bonus

RB Zack Moss 2-year $6 million, 3m guaranteed at signing

DL Taven Bryan – 1-year 4m

DB/ST Trevor Denbow – ERFA tender

OL Danny Pinter – Which version of Pinter do we get? 44.7 PFF grade in 2022 or 74.7 PFF grade in 2021 am hoping the later and resign 1-year 1.125m

 

Release

TE Mo Alie-Cox – Save the Club 5.92m

 

Colts 2024 FAs

CB Kenny Moore

WR Michael Pittman Jr.

SAF Julian Blackmon

DL Taven Bryan

RB Jonathan Taylor

QB Gardner Minshew

DL Tyquan Lewis

WR Isaiah McKenzie

RB Deon Jackson

DB Darrell Baker Jr

 

FA Additions

RG Robert Hunt (Dolphins) 4-year total value 66m, APY 16.5m, 20m guaranteed, 22m signing bonus.  Career highs in 2022 with both a 74.6 PFF pass-block grade and a 74.5 PFF run-blocking grade.  For 2023 PFF ranked him 17th best overall guard.  Major upgrade and a 4-year deal takes advantage at the height of Hunt’s career before his decline.  If we decline to extend a second time also works freeing up cap space when we would have to resign AR to a long-term deal.

 

SS Kamren Curl (Washington) 4-year total value 52m, APY 13m, 20m guaranteed, 16m signing bonus

 

OC/LG Matt Hennessy (Falcons) – Knee injury sidelined him again this season after playing 11 games in 2022 – 2-year 20m, 12m guaranteed, 6m signing bonus.  Playing short game hoping he heals and can take over for Ryan Kelly potentially utilizing roughly 10m in cap savings for 2024 to extend Hennessy long-term.  Prove to be valuable team insurance for Nelson as well.

 

RB DeeJay Dallas (Seahawks) 2-year $6 million, 3m guaranteed at signing, additional 1 million performance incentives

 

LDE A.J. Epenesa (Bills) 2-year $10 million, 5.5m guaranteed, 2.5m signing bonus

RDE Bryce Huff (NY Jets) 2-year $10 million, 5.5m guaranteed, 2.5m signing bonus – Overvalued as Jets placed a 2nd round tender on Huff for 2023. 

WR2 K.J. Osborn (Vikings) 4-year $43 million, 9m guaranteed (7m sign/2m roster)

WR3 Donovan Peoples-Jones (Browns) 4-year $43 million, 9m guaranteed (7m sign/2m roster)

 

2024 NFL Draft – Colts trade back with Chicago where the Bears draft future QB

 

R1P7 (via Bears) WR Rome Odunze (Washington) - His 605 yards against single coverage last year trailed only Marvin Harrison Jr. among returning Power Five wide receivers. He’s also the third-most valuable returning Power Five receiver, according to PFF’s wins above average metric.  Odunze replaces Pittman Jr. and is a better fit in our Colts system. 

 

R1P14 (via Bears/Panthers) FS Kamren Kinchens (Miami FL) - As a true FS led the country with a 90.0 grade and 90.7 coverage grade with 6 INTs. As a sophomore he led all safeties with a 90.0 overall grade and a 90.7 coverage grade. 

 

R2P34 MLB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Clemson) – Zaire Franklin will be a FA after 2024 season and 29 years old.  Colts go younger on defense. The fact that scouts saying Trotter is slightly better than Jack Campbell whom I was very high on last year’s drafted by the Lions if a big plus for me.  Trotter was the only LB with 80+ grades in both coverage and pass-rusher in 2022.  In 2022 he only allowed a passer rating of 42.9 and open-target rate of 47.6%. 

 

R3P67 QB Michael Pratt (Tulane) finished out the 2021 season in passing efficiency behind only Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Bryce Young of Alabama in passing efficiency rating at 161.79 after completing 63.6% of his passes for 3,010 yards with 27 touchdowns and just five interceptions on 338 passing attempts.  Gardner Minshew is a free agent after this season and Sam Ehlinger will become a free agent after the 2024 season.  The Colts get an above=average insurance QB early knowing the risk of using AR as a dual-QB risking injury.  We all have seen this play out too many times for franchises and the Colts would be wise to have insurance plan of a capable QB who can step up and play.

 

R4P108 NCB Tykee Smith (Georgia) – replaces Kenny Moore.  In 2020 didn’t allow a single catch of 15+ yards in coverage – graded as top (1) safeties returned to school in 2021.  In 2022 Smith was ranked #2 returning to college safety.  Smith missed most of 2021 with an ankle injury, torn ACL.  Solid man coverage skills and is fast enough to run with slot receivers and strong enough to cover tight ends.

 

R5P131 RDE Jahfari Harvey (Miami) FL. - Can play standing up, 3-tech, and 4-tech but seems to play more comfortably in 4.  Has a decent motor.   Good ability to read-and-react and adjust well to moving quarterbacks.  Coverage skills will be a question.  Possible stamina issues has potential but not an every down player.

 

R6P163 LCB Tony Grimes (Texas A&M) - after accumulating 16 pass deflections and a pick over the 2021 and 2022 campaigns at North Carolina.  Grimes, a former five-star, has high-end athleticism and proportional length, and plays the ball with patience and focus.  In 2022 Grimes recorded 6 tackles with 7 passes defended.  In 2021 he broke up nine passes.

R7P195 DL Keenan Stewart (UTEP) –Dominated JUCO.  Can play 1T and 3T in the 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 nickel defense.  In the last six games in 2020, Stewart produced a 92.7 PFF grade, ranking first in college football, and was anchored by a 94.4 run-defense grade. The sheer amount of plays he disrupted was astounding. His positively graded play rate against the run was the highest at the position over those last six games by a healthy margin.  Stewart’s future replacement with another Stewart I can see this happening.  Bryan has never lived up to his first-round selection but does offer the better upside over Johnson.

 

Color Key: Green for NFL draft class, Red for Free Agency additions

Offensive outlook ’24 Roster:

QB: Richardson, Pratt, Ehlinger

RB: Taylor, Dallas, Moss, Holani

WR: Odunze, Pierce, Downs, McKenzie, Dulin, Osborn, Peoples-Jones

TE: Granson, Woods, Ogletree

LT: Raimann, Hayes

LG: Nelson, Hennessy, Stills

OC: Kelly, Hennessy, French, Pinter

RG: Hunt, Fries

RT: Smith, Freeland, Witt

 

Defense outlook ’24 Roster:

Edge:  Paye, Epenesa, Harvey

IDL: Buckner, Stewart, Adebawore, Bryan, Stewart

Edge:  Ebukam, Odengibo, Huff, Leo

 

WLB: Leonard, Stuard

MLB: Trotter, Franklin

SLB:  Speed, Domann, McGrone

 

CB: Flowers, Smith, Grimes, Brown

SS: Curl, Cross

FS: Kinchens, Denbow, Scott

CB: Brents, Jones

 

2025 Key Free Agents

DT DeForest Buckner

DE Dayo Odeyingbo

DE Kwity Paye

TE Kylen Granson

 

Conclusion: The Colts say goodbye to Pittman Jr at receiver and came away with an equally impressive wide receiver with Odunze at a much cheaper cost.  The cap cost savings helps the Club target three top free agents, especially on our offensive line with Hunt and Hennessy.  Enough with the Jonathan Taylor drama it’s time to pay the man like Christian McCaffrey or even better.  Especially if we are prepared to move on from Pittman.  Not sure what the Club sees in Deon Jackson, but it is clearly time to give Moss more of the workload and extend him.  DeeJay Dallas who up to this point has been a solid contributor for the Seahawks will give the Colts another solid back option.  Both Osborn and People-Jones are proven wide receivers who add much needed presence behind both Pierce and Downs at affordable contracts again during AR rookie contract timetable. 

 

On defense I would be extremely excited to see both Kamrens working together creating a solid safety tandem.  The Colts go younger with some defensive additions of A.J. Epenesa and Huff.  Unfortunately, Epenesa hasn’t lived up to the hype and hopefully a change of scenery does him good in Indianapolis as he can’t be any worse than resigning Tyquan Lewis again.  Byrce Huff seems to have the stuff when his number is called.  Lost on the depth chart but could be another young acquisition to build around.  Only hope that JuJu Brents can be as great as this team needs.  Darrell Baker Jr fear isn’t the long-term answer so hopefully the addition of both Grimes and Smith at cornerback are worth the gamble.

 

It could all happen...Welcome to Week 1 in the NFL books and panic/rebuild mode session. 

[sb41champs]

WOW - just -  WWWOOOWWW!!

 

This is as forward-thinking of a post as I've ever read.

[richard pallo]

Wow is right!   It’s early but Fries could be nailing down the RG position this year.

[OhioColt]

6 hours ago, sb41champs said:

WOW - just -  WWWOOOWWW!!

 

This is as forward-thinking of a post as I've ever read.

Scary part is AR with a concussion and possibly the real demand for either a veteran QB like Minshew or looking for an early QB in the draft capable as a backup like Michael Pratt (Tulane).  Unfortunately, Pratt just missed his second straight game this weekend and maybe not a bad thing if it drops his stock and is truly available early for us in the 3rd round as originally projected. 

 

6 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Wow is right!   It’s early but Fries could be nailing down the RG position this year.

Time will ultimately tell but Fries is holding his own and could very well be the answer the Colts are looking for.  That would just save having to target Hunt in FA and rather go with LCB Jaylon Johnson (Bears) praying he tests the market knowing the Bears will have a lot of available cap space heading into the offseason. The Bears could potentially franchise Johnson if he continues his strong play throughout the season.  Right now, am projecting a 3-year 40.5m, 26.62m guaranteed, 18.06m signing bonus for Johnson.

 

Even more impressed with the call to start Moss over Jackson at running back.  Moss proving to be the better backup.

[sb41champs]

15 hours ago, OhioColt said:

Scary part is AR with a concussion and possibly the real demand for either a veteran QB like Minshew or looking for an early QB in the draft capable as a backup like Michael Pratt (Tulane).  Unfortunately, Pratt just missed his second straight game this weekend and maybe not a bad thing if it drops his stock and is truly available early for us in the 3rd round as originally projected. 

 

Time will ultimately tell but Fries is holding his own and could very well be the answer the Colts are looking for.  That would just save having to target Hunt in FA and rather go with LCB Jaylon Johnson (Bears) praying he tests the market knowing the Bears will have a lot of available cap space heading into the offseason. The Bears could potentially franchise Johnson if he continues his strong play throughout the season.  Right now, am projecting a 3-year 40.5m, 26.62m guaranteed, 18.06m signing bonus for Johnson.

 

Even more impressed with the call to start Moss over Jackson at running back.  Moss proving to be the better backup.

Moss was always the plan at #2 running back.

 

Will Fries IS holding his own at RG.

 

IF the Colts had wanted Kareem Hunt - they would have already signed him.

[MikeCurtis]

On 9/18/2023 at 3:48 PM, richard pallo said:

Wow is right!   It’s early but Fries could be nailing down the RG position this year.

Fries looked like he belonged out there this week.....

 

 

[OhioColt]

On 9/19/2023 at 2:15 PM, sb41champs said:

IF the Colts had wanted Kareem Hunt - they would have already signed him.

Wrong Hunt my friend.

 

Was actually talking about Dolphin's offensive lineman Robert Hunt who plays RG and will be an upcoming free agent who has been playing very well as potentially an option if he chose to hit the free agency market.  After the first two weeks Fries has been holding his own which is awesome and can potentially scratch Robert Hunt's name off the list.

 

As for Zak Moss realize his value going forward which is why he is high on the list to be resigned while Deon Jackson is a cut candidate.  Keep tabs on RB DeeJay Dallas from the Seahawks.  Reminds me of Zak Moss and has nearly identical stat production. 

 

If we had to look at the NFL draft for a future RB look up Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss).  Believe he is a sophomore this year and probably not eligible for the draft but check out some of his accolades from college.  2022 PFF TOW 9 honors had 14 broken tackles against Texas A&M, 5 breakaway runs of 15+ yards in company with likes of Derick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Chuba Hubbard.  Judkins came to Ole Miss as just a three-star recruit but, like Will Johnson at No. 21, dominated in Year 1.  He ranked in the top 10 in college football in rushing yards (1,567), rushing touchdowns (16), yards after contact (929) and forced missed tackles (76). Judkins also moved the chains on 91 of his attempts last year, placing fourth among FBS running backs.

 

Another college standout at RB was Jaydn Ott (Cal) - sophomore.  In 2022 after first 4 weeks, he owned the highest rushing grade in FBS 94.4 – 8.1 yards per attempt.   Ott finished off 2022 season with 897 rushing yards averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 8 rushing touchdowns.  He also caught 46 passes for 321 yards and added 3 more touchdowns as a receiver.  After first two games this season Ott already has 270 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.

 

If we have to address running back this offseason the top choice to enter the draft might be Bucky Irving (Oregon).  Irving was one of the most electric backs in the country last year. Now a junior, but as a sophomore he forced a missed tackle on 43% of his attempts, which ranked second in the country. It was also the fifth-best single-season mark since PFF began charting college football in 2014.  First three games Irvin is averaging 8.0 yards per carry, 216 yards on 27 carries and scored three touchdowns.

 

[OhioColt]

Seen the news tonight and the Bears making headlines first for their DC stepping down for health reasons and QB Justin Fields blaming coaching for his poor performance.  Looks like the Bears organization on the verge of major changes come end of season.

 

I also realize it's way too early to look ahead to the draft for next year, but Arizona has really set themselves up nicely for the first three rounds.  With all the draftees to enter this year I would love to have additional pick(s) in round 3 as well.  The Lions looking like a good trade partner to drop back with in round 2.  Do still like the idea of doubling up on first round draft picks plus add an additional pick in round three.  Our franchise keen on building this team through the draft. 

[sb41champs]

16 hours ago, OhioColt said:

Wrong Hunt my friend.

 

Was actually talking about Dolphin's offensive lineman Robert Hunt who plays RG and will be an upcoming free agent who has been playing very well as potentially an option if he chose to hit the free agency market.  After the first two weeks Fries has been holding his own which is awesome and can potentially scratch Robert Hunt's name off the list.

 

As for Zak Moss realize his value going forward which is why he is high on the list to be resigned while Deon Jackson is a cut candidate.  Keep tabs on RB DeeJay Dallas from the Seahawks.  Reminds me of Zak Moss and has nearly identical stat production. 

 

If we had to look at the NFL draft for a future RB look up Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss).  Believe he is a sophomore this year and probably not eligible for the draft but check out some of his accolades from college.  2022 PFF TOW 9 honors had 14 broken tackles against Texas A&M, 5 breakaway runs of 15+ yards in company with likes of Derick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Chuba Hubbard.  Judkins came to Ole Miss as just a three-star recruit but, like Will Johnson at No. 21, dominated in Year 1.  He ranked in the top 10 in college football in rushing yards (1,567), rushing touchdowns (16), yards after contact (929) and forced missed tackles (76). Judkins also moved the chains on 91 of his attempts last year, placing fourth among FBS running backs.

 

Another college standout at RB was Jaydn Ott (Cal) - sophomore.  In 2022 after first 4 weeks, he owned the highest rushing grade in FBS 94.4 – 8.1 yards per attempt.   Ott finished off 2022 season with 897 rushing yards averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 8 rushing touchdowns.  He also caught 46 passes for 321 yards and added 3 more touchdowns as a receiver.  After first two games this season Ott already has 270 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.

 

If we have to address running back this offseason the top choice to enter the draft might be Bucky Irving (Oregon).  Irving was one of the most electric backs in the country last year. Now a junior, but as a sophomore he forced a missed tackle on 43% of his attempts, which ranked second in the country. It was also the fifth-best single-season mark since PFF began charting college football in 2014.  First three games Irvin is averaging 8.0 yards per carry, 216 yards on 27 carries and scored three touchdowns.

 

Thanks for the correction - and - the additional amazingly detailed information.

 

Maybe you should apply to the Colts to be an area scout?