A healthy Gronk and scoring more than 21 points is the key for the Pats

[chad72]

The game will AGAIN come down to how the Seahawks can stop Tom Brady and that offense. Outside the AFCCG where he lost 34-38 to Peyton in Indy in January 2007 (which is the main reason that SB run was well earned for the Colts considering that Brady did not turn it over till that last drive), I do not think Brady and that Pats have lost a playoff game where they scored more than 21 points. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

Since Gronk is healthy, if the Patriots put up more than 21 points, and especially if they cross that 25 point threshold, Seattle is in trouble. I don't think Russell Wilson's record is good when going against teams that score more than 25 points against the Seahawks, if I am not mistaken.

[GoPats]

Wasn't sure so I looked it up.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/gamelog/post/

 

Technically (only), they had 21 points in the 28-21 loss to the Jets after the 2010 season. IIRC that came on a late TD that made it look closer than it really was. But yes, aside from that one and the '06 Colts/Pats game, that's been the magic number more or less. 

 

The Patriots do two things fairly well that could be effective against that great Seattle D:

 

1. They can run the ball at times.

2. More importantly, their short passing game is probably the best in the NFL.

 

No team is going to have success against Seattle right now with deep, slow-developing routes. On offense, their best bet is going to be to spread them out, play the match-ups, and be patient.

 

On defense, Wilson and the Seahawks could give NE a little trouble. This game almost negates the impact of Revis since they have no clear #1 guy. They've also had trouble sometimes with mobile QBs. They'll have to sell out to stop Lynch since they probably can't do that with just their front. 

 

Seattle's a tough team. This should be a great game. Really the best two teams from the regular season here... that doesn't happen every year. 

[chad72]

Wasn't sure so I looked it up.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/gamelog/post/

 

Technically (only), they had 21 points in the 28-21 loss to the Jets after the 2010 season. IIRC that came on a late TD that made it look closer than it really was. But yes, aside from that one and the '06 Colts/Pats game, that's been the magic number more or less. 

 

The Patriots do two things fairly well that could be effective against that great Seattle D:

 

1. They can run the ball at times.

2. More importantly, their short passing game is probably the best in the NFL.

 

No team is going to have success against Seattle right now with deep, slow-developing routes. On offense, their best bet is going to be to spread them out, play the match-ups, and be patient.

 

On defense, Wilson and the Seahawks could give NE a little trouble. This game almost negates the impact of Revis since they have no clear #1 guy. They've also had trouble sometimes with mobile QBs. They'll have to sell out to stop Lynch since they probably can't do that with just their front. 

 

Seattle's a tough team. This should be a great game. Really the best two teams from the regular season here... that doesn't happen every year. 

 

I felt losing Paul Richardson, the seattle rookie wideout would lead to loss of speed on the field on the WR front, I felt it would show up vs the Packers, it did, outside OT, their wideouts did not do much, no a catch from a punter does not count . Baldwin is a chain mover, Kearse is the big play guy. Revis will be on Kearse and take him out. Wilson will take shots now and then, regardless of whether it is Revis or not, Revis will still have his hands full because Kearse makes leaping catches.

 

Lockette and Richardson were the speed guys, now it is just Lockette but he does not see as many snaps because his route running is not as polished as Baldwin. Browner will most likely get Baldwin, IMO.

 

If the Seahawks still had Percy Harvin and Golden Tate, it would be different. Those losses almost showed up in the Packers game that the Packers should have had. It will matter at the biggest stage, IMO. The problem is Seattle cannot cheat against the run due to Gronk and play single safety high like they did vs Peyton because Brady will eat them alive in the middle. Chancellor will try to cheat but then, Brady's arm strength is a tad superior that the ball will get there just a tad before the hit. Amendola and Edelman will have to make some tough catches. On the contrary, Seattle will force the nickel formation of NE to play the run more and their TEs are known to put a hurt or two on DBs, that is going to be key.

 

Vince Wilfork and the Pats' OL are the key to this game.

[GoPats]

I felt losing Paul Richardson, the seattle rookie wideout would lead to loss of speed on the field on the WR front, I felt it would show up vs the Packers, it did, outside OT, their wideouts did not do much, no a catch from a punter does not count . Baldwin is a chain mover, Kearse is the big play guy. Revis will be on Kearse and take him out. Wilson will take shots now and then, regardless of whether it is Revis or not, Revis will still have his hands full because Kearse makes leaping catches.

 

Lockette and Richardson were the speed guys, now it is just Lockette but he does not see as many snaps because his route running is not as polished as Baldwin. Browner will most likely get Baldwin, IMO.

 

If the Seahawks still had Percy Harvin and Golden Tate, it would be different. Those losses almost showed up in the Packers game that the Packers should have had. It will matter at the biggest stage, IMO. The problem is Seattle cannot cheat against the run due to Gronk and play single safety high like they did vs Peyton because Brady will eat them alive in the middle. Chancellor will try to cheat but then, Brady's arm strength is a tad superior that the ball will get there just a tad before the hit. Amendola and Edelman will have to make some tough catches. On the contrary, Seattle will force the nickel formation of NE to play the run more and their TEs are known to put a hurt or two on DBs, that is going to be key.

 

Vince Wilfork and the Pats' OL are the key to this game.

 

Good insight on Seattle's WR crew, thanks. 

 

If the Patriots are competitive it will come down to Edelman and Amendola like you said. New England will need to go with the "death by a thousand cuts" offense here, because I don't think they can move the ball against Seattle in chunks. Lots of 6, 7, 8 yard throws. Stay out of 3rd and long. And don't get behind... staying within one score is going to be hugely important. 

 

There are 13 days and thousands of analyses left to go but if I'm being honest this morning I think Seattle has a better shot of winning this match-up. Strengths and weaknesses considered, they're a tough team for NE to play. I'm glad to see the Patriots in it, don't get me wrong, but I'd have liked their chances against GB a lot better, especially after playing the Packers so tough on their own field in November. 

 

Last I heard the line was nearly even... Seattle was favored by a point. I bet that crawls up a bit. 

[oldunclemark]

another Pats thread?

[bap1331]

Seahawks wont play like they did yesterday...

[mintor]

The game will AGAIN come down to how the Seahawks can stop Tom Brady and that offense. Outside the AFCCG where he lost 34-38 to Peyton in Indy in January 2007 (which is the main reason that SB run was well earned for the Colts considering that Brady did not turn it over till that last drive), I do not think Brady and that Pats have lost a playoff game where they scored more than 21 points. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

Since Gronk is healthy, if the Patriots put up more than 21 points, and especially if they cross that 25 point threshold, Seattle is in trouble. I don't think Russell Wilson's record is good when going against teams that score more than 25 points against the Seahawks, if I am not mistaken.

 

 

 

 dude your crazy the key the game was zero pass rush on brady. 

 

can,t wait see seattle sack brady few times then brady messup after that.

[chad72]

 dude your crazy the key the game was zero pass rush on brady. 

 

can,t wait see seattle sack brady few times then brady messup after that.

 

Yeah, I was real crazy!!!

 

Scoring more than 21 points and a healthy Gronkowski worked out for the Pats in all games but one that resulted in Peyton beating them 38-34

 

Russell Wilson has NOT won a game where his team gave up more than 25 points, ever. It is not a co-incidence.